Mini Theme 2194 : Draft Mafia | Endgame

[Flea The Magician]

I spend far to much time in python doing absolutely nothing useful... i need higher contrasting colours too but blegh!

Why Pizza molla? Like you're not given me anything to work with here, just "THEY SCUMZ!"

[We brought pizza]

Murder gave us some thoughts on the discord and the end of d1 that I wasn't able to get in before the hammer, I'll try to give the most relevant ones now

He's pinged by 419, he says he doesn't have that good of a history reading pooky

He wants to know if he's played with willow before, he feels good about the slot though

In response to 642 he says that he'd be posting more as scum to appear active

He likes 657 though

In response to 776 he says that he wanted to get noraa's perspective on playing scum.

And more from n1 (knowing klick flips town):

He thinks 875 looks bad if pooky flips scum, but 882 looks like town!toog. But he thinks 923 and 924 look sus after toog was looking to compromise.

He doesn't like 957.

Not sure why, but he really likes 1025 and it makes him sure shadow is town.

I don't feel like I can get a lot of great info out of a deadline quickwagon. I guess it makes pooky/NPOM a bit more likely to be scum, because scum are motivated to hop on, but that's kind of weak. My PoE is {NM, pooky, flea} which is just people I can't read, so I know something's wrong. Probably gonna spend this day re-evaluating my townleans (gamma, NPOM, molla, willow, toog) by talking to murder/noraa and interacting with people.

VOTE: pooky

-Infinity

[We brought pizza]

VOTE: Pizza

Scum on the wagon

Expand on this?

A lot of the Klick wagon seems town, I don't think that there were 7 town on it though

Pizza sticks out like a sore thumb amongst the townish crowd

They're the scum on the wagon

Ok but do you have actual reasons to SR us or is this just gambler's fallacy nonsense

-Infinity

[willow1]

hey, sorry but i'm not going to have a lot of time today

my top two votes atm would be npom/mastina but i have a lot i want to go back over yesterday

[shadowslug]

god damn it i just really want to elim pooky or pizza now just so that whole chapter is closed

[mastina]

@mastina if you think my wagon was so towny did you visit me last night?

I did not activate a visiting role N1 so no, I did not.

[BBmolla]

Are you trying to act erratically scummy to make me think you are emotionally town by wifom?

Because this is something toxic.

That is not how scum me works.

this is right after they tried to flashwagon me

and then clidd died

it's them dudes/dudettes

[BBmolla]

also continuing to vote pooky lmfao

[BBmolla]

VOTE: Pizza

Scum on the wagon

Expand on this?

A lot of the Klick wagon seems town, I don't think that there were 7 town on it though

Pizza sticks out like a sore thumb amongst the townish crowd

They're the scum on the wagon

Ok but do you have actual reasons to SR us or is this just gambler's fallacy nonsense

-Infinity

do you even know what gamblers fallacy is

[We brought pizza]

"The gambler's fallacy is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past"

In this case, the event is a player on the klick wagon being town

There's nothing that says there has to be scum on an elim wagon, there just usually is because of probability

-Infinity

[Not_Mafia]

"The gambler's fallacy is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past"

In this case, the event is a player on the klick wagon being town

There's nothing that says there has to be scum on an elim wagon, there just usually is because of probability

-Infinity

That's not how mafia works

[BBmolla]

thats not what im arguing at all

I'm arguing that in a game where 7/12 are voting a player (minus the player himself in this equation), and 3 of those 12 are scum, mathematically it's unlikely that all 3 scum are not on the wagon. That's ignoring the real gameplay aspect that mafia are likely going to jump on a miselim.

if you're arguing that every player has a 1/12 chance of being town... I mean yes, but that's sort of ignoring the bigger picture.

regardless none of this matters, I think there was scum on the wagon, and the scum on the wagon would be you

[BBmolla]

NM who you votin today I'm looking forward to it

[Not_Mafia]

It depends who gets to E-1 first

[We brought pizza]

I'm arguing that in a game where 7/12 are voting a player (minus the player himself in this equation), and 3 of those 12 are scum, mathematically it's unlikely that all 3 scum are not on the wagon.

I agree, but having townreads on some players on the wagon decreases the chance that scum is on the wagon, so it shouldn't affect your reads on other people on the wagon.

Can you go into your TRs on the wagon?

-Infinity

[We brought pizza]

It depends who gets to E-1 first

Right, so we should be announcing and claiming on E-2

-Infinity

[NoPowerOverMe]

@mastina if you think my wagon was so towny did you visit me last night?

I did not activate a visiting role N1 so no, I did not.

So you're saying you didn't leave your house?

[BBmolla]

Shadow slug where are you leaning today

Pooky same question

[We brought pizza]

Can you go into your TRs on the wagon?

-Infinity

[BBmolla]

Yeah I’m out atm but I can talk about my townreads today

[Flea The Magician]

Ya'll gunna make me do this aren't ya...
...
eugh fine...

[Flea The Magician]

It depends who gets to E-1 first

Right, so we should be announcing and claiming on E-2

-Infinity

Standard practice to announce NM-1 lol That's why Im treating myself as the hammer for yesterday

[Gamma Emerald]

What the fuck was Lunar doing fakeclaiming Dayvig

[BBmolla]

Klick (7) toogeloo - Gamma Emerald - We brought pizza - NoPowerOverMe - PookyTheMagicalBear - Flea The Magician - Not_Mafia Banished !

toog is town for their stance on me and their lack of agenda

Gamma posts are genuine as hell and I think that's town

NPOM is a wildcard tbh

Pooky is town

Flea seems genuinely confused 97% of the time and I think that makes faer more than likely town

Not Mafia is Not Mafia

[Flea The Magician]

Ok I ain't going into full maths but we're talking something like 1e-9% of town doing a true random chance elimination without scum.

That said, it can and does happen. We can't play this on sheer numbers.

VOTE: BBMolla
Stop avoiding the question, why is pizza scum?