Mini Normal 2196 - Game Over

[VFP]

Let's put it this way.

Amelie scum / Alice town indicates Llama comes off worse as scum
Amelie town / Alice scum indicates I come off worse as scum
Amelie scum / Alice scum indicates both town.
Amelie town / Alice town then me and Llama are probably scum together.

[VFP]

Town can be suspicious of town.
Why do me and Llama have to town read each other if both town?

[clidd]

Idk, I feel that you would come to the conclusion that the other is town if you were both town.

It's the same kind of read I had between Pooky and Pizza in our past game.

[clidd]

"our past game" technically speaking, since you replaced in that game with me already dead and we didn't get to interact, so you probably don't know what I'm talking about.

[VFP]

If you saw how my reads were there you can probably understand why I'm so unsure of myself here.
That game influenced my doubt in general a lot.

I had 2/3 of scum as town and kept flip flopping on my scum reads.

[clidd]

Yeah, I saw, it was sad.

But this is normal, everyone has a bad game eventually. It doesn't mean that because you were townreading scum in that game that you are a bad player, just that the scum seemed towny to you.

[clidd]

Lack of confidence, however, will damage your games.

I would suggest playing with the sense that if you're right, fine, you've done your part, and if you're wrong, fine, learn from mistakes.

[clidd]

That's an advice for future towngames, btw, regardless of your alignment here.

[LlamaFluff]

I keep thinking that it may actually be time for a massclaim today if people are active enough. We already have:

2 fully claimed PRs
1 dead PR
2 soft-claimed PRs

All that information is probably enough to catch at least one scum who is faking something, or semi-clear enough people to get a really small pool of "not likely town" and be able to force scum moves for most of the remaining game.

Of note Wednesday/Thursday are typically my worst access days of the week too as an FYI. I typically am still around enough to read, but not always around enough to provide content.

[DrippingGoofball]

I think Amelie is just bad... I can identify with that... but town.

[clidd]

Me waiting for the replacements:

[Amélie]

What is a Psychologist and Detective? I haven't ever heard of roles like this. Also Clidd, why do you find that post scummy?
I don't think massclaim on day 2 is a good idea but if it's the best play, I'm willing to do it.
I'm starting to worry about a Clidd/VFP scum team now but I'll have to think on that since I currently don't have enough town reads.

[clidd]

I mean, I had you as a townread in our past game because of that kind of post (and you were scum), so I'm really not buying. You'll have to find a way to towntell.

[clidd]

My problem with your post is that your opinions seems to be posed and I feel that you are playing in a similar way to what I saw from scum!Amélie.

[clidd]

You also take a long time to post and your flow is not organic.

[clidd]

But it doesn't matter, your wagon isn't likely to happen rn.

[Gretchen]

that sad truth is that most players have random or very close to random reads. the good players that don't will find maf eventually and it's down to the collective to sheep them. but it's why you need a game's EV (expected value for a town win if random elims) to be as close to 50% as possible, since most games are just random reads and RANDOM.

if we were all good at detecting liars then EVs would need to be like 30 or 40% but since we're all random it needs to be 50%. sad isn't it.

well it's not sad. there are players who have far better than random reads and we can all ASPIRE to improve and become better and be like that someday.

[Gretchen]

also, mechanical guilties are the most boring thing ever to me but those kind of investigatives are needed to bring the EV up

[Gretchen]

Amelie still rubs me as playing dumb and her reada have a lot of logical holes but i don't think i believe in her flipping maf anymore

[Gretchen]

I think Amelie is just bad... I can identify with that... but town.

(you're both voting for me)

[Gretchen]

can we just kill Alice since no one's taking the two slots? kill her and let nm just replace solon overnight

[DrippingGoofball]

VOTE: amelie

[geraintm]

So i voted for Clidd in 1269. i feel like i should go through their posts since then and see what's up

I'm open for a wagon on DGB or Amélie, depending on what they both post in the next 24 hours.

My read on Gera has significantly improved.

My townread on Bugspray, however, has weakened, but I still believe that the slot could be town.

If the assumption that there is a scum between the claims is correct, it is likely that DGB is the guy we'e looking for by PoE. Grechen, Dunn and Solon are more towny.

bunch of posts giving thoughts on other players. see if these hold over time

VFP is towny and my townread on Dann is also weakening, but at a slower rate compared to my tr on Bugspray.

Alice's vote was terrible, but not scummy, probably bad town..

Considering what I witnessed about scum!Amélie, I believe she is different here (positively).
.

so far there are a whole load of tiny posts giving feelings on people, but nothing much to back it up

Actually, I would not rule out bad scum play on the part of a possible scum!DGB.

.

Alright, let's take a look here:

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

Dgb, I would like to take a look at your reads.

wahey, we get a vote. but it is on DGB who hadn't relaly been mentioned much

Yeah, I'm sold on Amélie being very likely town for now. I liked her 1328.

posts like 1377 are asking others to really investigate DGB. but there never felt like any actual investigation from CLidd themselves, the vote just sorta appeared and left as a fait acompli

1417 unvote DGB, considering we are waiting for a replacment

Hum..

Haven't finished the reread, but: VOTE: Amélie

For me she was very likely town based on aggressiveness and the expression of thought, but after rereading (with more attention) her scumgame:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

I noticed that it is not out of her scumrange, which is curious, because I played in that game, but I thought she was different here.

a new vote. actual effort into it

Gera is probably town, he hasn't changed much since our last game together.

pedit: DGB is likely town by AtE/bad town play and Dann is town because I liked his posts when he replaced in, although he hasn’t been so towny recently.

I do think that there is scum among PRs, but my reads don't point to where.
.

more vague accusations

Lets just do this for now though and say if you think DGB is town (or want to push DGB/Dann to tomorrow) join in

Vote Ame

Yeah, Amélie is a good counter-wagon.

has made BFFs with new player Llama

Alice is a decent wagon too.

of course it is. but you of course don't say why

It's important to emphasize that I don't promise accuracy, considering that I have also had games in which my meta reads were not as conclusive as I thought and I ended up getting bad/wrong reads.

thats it.
ok, so i've read all their posts since i last voted for them. they've pushed two wagons - Dripping goofball and amelie. there is a lot of thoughts about people, but apart from amelie there is very little effort into anything, it is all just "i'm lumping these people into the good/bad pile". and once they've been sorted that's it, and an almost expectation from them that we should agree with their reads.
i thought a read through would give me pause on my read of their slot. it may well be i am already thinking poorly of them so i am looking for the worst, but i don't see anything there to make me change me read of them as scum.

sorry that this a very long post

[clidd]

Your post basically starts from the conclusion "Clidd is scum" and how my posts would fit into such scenario ^

[clidd]

Which means that you are looking for reasons to confirm something that you want to be right or have already judged to be true, but not that you are really evaluating impartially. This is called confirmation bias.