Open 810 | Aliensitter Needed! | Mafia wins

[Bingle]

Why for the love of Christ did you hammer Johnny there bingle

Combination of gamestate scumread on Pine and trust in N_M/Pooky. Also I was bored.

[Menalque]

STOP SAYING THINGS THAT ARE SIMULTANEOUSLY REASONABLE/PLAUSIBLE BUT ON ANOTHER LEVEL UNSATISFYING

[Bingle]

Also do you agree that scum double bussed on D1?

Neither you nor GPa are hard townreads for me, no. It's definitely possible, and I'd say that the two of you almost certainly aren't S/S, but I wouldn't bet the game on you both being town.

[Menalque]

like are you intentionally trying to make urself harder to sort? And if so why? I wasn’t aware that this was a bonus content addition of “your favourite nightmare” where the nightmare is me having to work out if you’re town or scum and bet the game on it

[Menalque]

Interesting, why is Gpa not a hard TR for you?

[Bingle]

He reminds me of me as newbscum from 500 years ago or whenever I joined the site.

[Menalque]

I understand seeing me as a potential buddy to drap but not Grandpa atp

Like given the players who’re left I think grandpa basically just has to be clear or to have, frankly, played a wonderful scumgame that I feel quite alright losing to

I think I’m more ambiguous bc (1) drap went to lengths to make me sound like I could be his buddy and (2) I’m still plausibly within my scumrange I guess

[Menalque]

He reminds me of me as newbscum from 500 years ago or whenever I joined the site.

How so?

[Menalque]

And also like... who would be his partner? The only options are (T3, NM, gypyx) and none of those seem particularly likely

[Menalque]

Maybe gypyx? I guess? But double bus just seems far more plausible with where kills have ended up

I guess if scumteam don’t know about VCA/didn’t think anyone here would do it at all maybe they’d let themselves get put into a 1/2

And like things have made me feel uneasy about mo throughout the game but I think it was mostly paranoia tbh

[Bingle]

Like, objectively, if he's scum he's played a solid ass game, no doubt. On the other hand there's a bunch of little things that ping. I find it hard to believe he doesn't understand why his style of rhetoric is ineffective. His response to "Your townread on me is for bad reasons" was "I'm townreading you for pointing out that my townread on you is for bad reasons." When I noped the fuck out of the thread and refused to help, he didn't get frustrated or try to convince me to help or push me he just kind of... let it happen and then quietly pivoted into "Maybe Bingle scum?" He hard defended Drap for really bad reasons.

Nothing in there is lockscum. I can see exactly why town GPa might have done it. But there's enough substance that I'm not going to assume he's town and call it a day.

[Bingle]

The only options are (T3, NM, gypyx) and none of those seem particularly likely

I agree that it's probably not T3/Mo. I don't think it's you or N_M either. That leaves Mo as only scum with gypyx. Why isn't Gypyx/Mo a possibility to you?

[Bingle]

Also, for the sake of optimization, I'd like to know how you ruled out me/Mo.

[Menalque]

Ugh I’m really gonna have to go back and read the second half of D1 aren’t I

My impression has been, from the way things worked out, that scum were p okay with drap going down. It doesn’t seem worth it to hard defend him really if you’re scum vs to just bus and get cred and then sus anyone off wagon for a good couple of days?

I don’t find the “ur tr on me is for bad reasons” being met by “well u pointed that out which is towny” to be particularly egregious— in fact, I have clear memories of doing this (foolishly) with skitter in some of our first games together. Of course, she was right (the tr was for bad reasons) and it was pure chance that she was scum that first game (as I learned to my chagrin when she hard pocketed me in another game by calling out my tr on her as being for bad reasons when she was scum) but the broader point I’m trying to get across is that when you’re a newbie to the site I think this is a very common cognitive slip to make

[Menalque]

The only options are (T3, NM, gypyx) and none of those seem particularly likely

I agree that it's probably not T3/Mo. I don't think it's you or N_M either. That leaves Mo as only scum with gypyx. Why isn't Gypyx/Mo a possibility to you?

I mean, as I said, the (mo, gypyx) one is the only one I think is possible but it’s less about possible and more about probable — I think this game feels a lot like a double bus game. It reminds me of 2119, and there’s a reason I linked that to mo. But mostly I just... really am not seeing mo as scum rn? I don’t feel like he needs to bother engaging with me at all really, I’m not particularly scary this game and I’m an easy miselim (I think). With pooky probably wanting me dead regardless, what’s the incentive for a gypyx/mo team to not just support me dying today, then kill pooky, and then probably have a p easy final day limming T3? (But where you and NM would also be viable possibilities)

Also, for the sake of optimization, I'd like to know how you ruled out me/Mo.

If the scumteam plan for today is “let’s both pocket mena for shits and gigs even tho we don’t need to” then uh, okay

Mo feels like he’s solving. You sort of do too but I put less stock in it from you because I have more trust that you’re able to simulate solviness as scum

[Bingle]

where kills have ended up

?

I don't think scumkills here are all that telling, tbh.

Dannflor was firmly in his TM PR meta, and Gyp/You/I would all know that. (I'd know that he was lurky towards the end anyway, but you can't access our team chat to verify so it's a moo point.)

N2 is most easily explained by a positive motion detector on either of the two and/or a dwindling mason pool, although I really should go look and see if there were any teams for which that deduction would be clearer.

N3 is either an attempt at clearing a strong town player out of the way or a PR fear kill, depending on whether the scumteam knows A50.

I don't think any of those kills were made with the intention of manipulating V/CA.

[Menalque]

Like a big problem for me when I have tried to engage with this game is that I haven’t really had a sense of “oh right, *this* is what scum wants to do” at any point basically

And I have t been able to get my head around the scumplan or anything or around what scum were doing at various points or why they made the NKs they did

But I hadn’t really considered (T3, gypyx) until today and it just kinda fits in a lot of ways? The main thing I have is I’m paranoiaing about it being too easy and them both being LHF

But look at the gypyx ISO — it’s bad right? And then there’s a lot pointing at T3 being scum too from NKs and him being the main CW (made up of all town) to flipped town

And then maybe some of the other weirdness is just normal town weird shit (like your overconfidence in NM!town — maybe I’m just wrong here and he is that town and you and pooky see it and I don’t, and I need to be the one to trust y’all here)

[Bingle]

I don’t find the “ur tr on me is for bad reasons” being met by “well u pointed that out which is towny” to be particularly egregious— in fact, I have clear memories of doing this (foolishly) with skitter in some of our first games together. Of course, she was right (the tr was for bad reasons) and it was pure chance that she was scum that first game (as I learned to my chagrin when she hard pocketed me in another game by calling out my tr on her as being for bad reasons when she was scum) but the broader point I’m trying to get across is that when you’re a newbie to the site I think this is a very common cognitive slip to make

Fair. The point I was making though is that I can 100% see this as being Mo who is leaning into the "I'm a newbie and don't know any better" to get away with it. It's very tinfoily, but that's exactly how I won my first 3-4 scumgames before people started recognizing that I knew more than I was letting on about how mafia worked.

[Menalque]

Oh I forgot scum have a motion detector, that is a fair alternative to VFP being killed for reads

But it’s like

Of the 3 people who have died most recently

All of them wanted the CW to flipped town on D2 — now scum are playing well this game, so that *could* be a setup, and if it is then I think this game is quite likely lost, but I still think I wanna call the bluff and find out

Also re: dann — I had no idea he was in his PR meta lol. We haven’t played together that much and I think my meta on him being Not Great should be fairly evident from my thinking he was intensely scummy from
How he entered the game

[Bingle]

I mean, as I said, the (mo, gypyx) one is the only one I think is possible but it’s less about possible and more about probable — I think this game feels a lot like a double bus game. It reminds me of 2119, and there’s a reason I linked that to mo. But mostly I just... really am not seeing mo as scum rn? I don’t feel like he needs to bother engaging with me at all really, I’m not particularly scary this game and I’m an easy miselim (I think). With pooky probably wanting me dead regardless, what’s the incentive for a gypyx/mo team to not just support me dying today, then kill pooky, and then probably have a p easy final day limming T3? (But where you and NM would also be viable possibilities)

FMPOV I'm 100% willing to just say If GypTown -> MoTown

and consider Mo off the table for today, if that helps any. I can see the same being fine for you.

I'm also struggling to see a pairing for you, although I doubt anyone else would take us as a pair off the table.

[Menalque]

I don’t find the “ur tr on me is for bad reasons” being met by “well u pointed that out which is towny” to be particularly egregious— in fact, I have clear memories of doing this (foolishly) with skitter in some of our first games together. Of course, she was right (the tr was for bad reasons) and it was pure chance that she was scum that first game (as I learned to my chagrin when she hard pocketed me in another game by calling out my tr on her as being for bad reasons when she was scum) but the broader point I’m trying to get across is that when you’re a newbie to the site I think this is a very common cognitive slip to make

Fair. The point I was making though is that I can 100% see this as being Mo who is leaning into the "I'm a newbie and don't know any better" to get away with it. It's very tinfoily, but that's exactly how I won my first 3-4 scumgames before people started recognizing that I knew more than I was letting on about how mafia worked.

Yea and maybe that’s what’s happening here and you’re right to be paranoid and I’m giving a free pass to scum

In which case: mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa

But I think that until we have confirmation from this game being over and mo flipping scum the higher % play is to say “nah, that’s not what’s happening, the dude is just town and figuring shit out” especially when there are other teams that I think make sense over and above the one team that he features in

[Bingle]

Also re: dann — I had no idea he was in his PR meta lol. We haven’t played together that much and I think my meta on him being Not Great should be fairly evident from my thinking he was intensely scummy from

Dann was trying to fly under the radar (which is why you were scumreading him, I think) and that's one of the strongest PR tells there is. The other reliable one is wanting to rush through the day phase and get to night as quickly as possible.

[Menalque]

I think this is bizarre theatre for us to do and to then be like self-referential about it


What about if T3!scum -> mo!town?

[Menalque]

Dann was trying to fly under the radar (which is why you were scumreading him, I think)

Nah fam, I’d already dipped by the time that dann was starting to be under the radar-y

I disliked his opening because it felt way too confident for him and also overly flippant — like he was trying too hard to be light-hearted

[Bingle]

But I think that until we have confirmation from this game being over and mo flipping scum the higher % play is to say “nah, that’s not what’s happening, the dude is just town and figuring shit out” especially when there are other teams that I think make sense over and above the one team that he features in

My reaction is closer to what I coached Pine into for the end of the mini theme. Ignore the possibility of GPa scum once I've narrowed down his teams to one person. If Shea flips scum, then we look hard at Norwee, but Norwee is never scum w/out Shea, so Shea has to go first.

(In this allegory, Gpa is Norwee and Shea is Gypyx.)