Open 810 | Aliensitter Needed! | Mafia wins

[Menalque]

Can you guess my problem with this

[Bingle]

I think this is bizarre theatre for us to do and to then be like self-referential about it


What about if T3!scum -> mo!town?

I mean, that follows from the previous logic. Mo is never limmed unless Gypyx has already flipped scum.

[Bingle]

Can you guess my problem with this

That you think Gypyx is my most likely partner?

[Menalque]

Well, one of

I also think you have a lot of equity with NM

[Menalque]

Let’s look at this from a slightly alternative angle: are there any scumteams with you in them where the plan is not for you to be the endgame scum should you fail to win in 5?

[Bingle]

VOTE: gypx

For reel reels though VOTE: gypyx

I can get behind this.
VOTE: gypyx

Now Bingle, got any other early reads?

I never plan to be the endgame scum. Sometimes it happens, but it's never the plan.

[Menalque]

And correspondingly: if both I and pooky are dead by 3p, is there anyone left you wouldn’t feel confident 1v1ing for the win?

Ninja- not seeing the relevance of the quoted

[Bingle]

*announcer voice*

And yes, that’s dannflor entering the thread folks, ooh, it’s not off to a good start! How many yikes out of 5 is that judges?

4/5 yikes! Hoo boy, that’s a lot of yikes for dannflor’s entrance!

So your telling me you think this:

VOTE: gypx

guys gypyx and bingle are scum together

Is more yikes then this:

WTF VOTE: pooky

The quote from the last one and this one were supposed to be together, along with "What do you make of this?"

Imagine I hadn't fucked that up.

[Menalque]

You keep saying things that I just don’t really believe are true lol

[Bingle]

1v1ing for the win?

No.

[Menalque]

Like, you’re well-known to be a strong scumplayer who doesn’t hate scum which is fairly rare these days

Why *wouldn’t* you plan on being endgame scum?

I feel like in about 80% of my scumgsmes I plan around potentially having to win in 3p and play accordingly, and I don’t even like scum

[Menalque]

Honestly re: quotes I’ve been doing my level best to totally ignore everything drap posted as WIFOM to save myself the headache

[Menalque]

Let’s get down to brass tacks: who’s your preferred flip today?

[Bingle]

You keep saying things that I just don’t really believe are true lol

It's 100% true. I massively dislike being the designated endgame scum for three reasons. Endgame scum implies I wasn't able to keep my scumteam afloat and I vastly prefer winning with a team. One of my strongest traits as scum is my ability to set up associations between me and town and make them look really shitty when I'm dead. Being the endgame scum makes my future scumgames that much harder because people remember "Bingle won that game as scum" instead of "That was a solid scumteam that Bingle was on".

I am far more proud of a game if I can setup a partner to take it all the way to the end than if I lose my team but still make it across the finish line. Basically, if I endgame a game solo as scum something went wrong somewhere down the line and I had to scramble to recover.

Look at the solo scumwin that I played with A50 that I still tease him over: Why was I the endgame scum? One of my buddies got vigged and the other legitimately scumslipped. I didn't have a choice.

[Menalque]

Rn I’m at

T3 > gypyx > you/NM > mo

[Menalque]

"Bingle won that game as scum"

b-but... glory?

[Bingle]

Let’s get down to brass tacks: who’s your preferred flip today?

I'm not sure yet. I lean Gypyx, but I'm still solving you before I'm comfortable doing so. Also I vaguely remember reading a case for Gypyx town I thought was pretty compelling back before I suddenly had spare time to devote to this. I probably wouldn't be opposed to a T3 lim either.

[Menalque]

>tfw he doesn’t want the glory

[Bingle]

"Bingle won that game as scum"

b-but... glory?

Fuck Glory. I'm good at mafia because I excell at being part of a team, not because I'm good individually. Notice that I spent an entire phase this game doing fuckall because I actively didn't want to be the town leader.

[Menalque]

Okay, let’s leave it here for now

I’m going to try to get another couple of hours of napping done before I wake up and try to call the doctor’s office

Am curious as to who you think I could be teamed with?

I would entertain gypyx today but feel like T3 would maybe be more revealing (if he were town I might reconsider grandpa more seriously)

The other thing that would be good for today is if I could find any reason to think you/NM don’t make sense as a team but I’m not super optimistic about thst

[Menalque]

Fuck Glory.

C1788A08-610E-4776-B1AD-59660D4EBB93

[Bingle]

N_M towncase:

aside from that N_M is probably town despite him wanting me

[Bingle]

also @bingle isnt it better to see who mafia kills during night 4? think about it...

the likelehood of t3 flipping scum here is high..

ELIM SCUM: we assume t3 flips scum >>> it becomes 1:5 during day 4 >>> 1:3 during day 5 >>> (NO ELIM) >>> 1:2 during day 6.

ELIM TOWN: we assume t3 flips town >>> it becomes 2:4 during day 4 >>> (NO ELIM) >>> 2:3 during day 5

NO ELIM: (NO ELIM) >>> it becomes 2:5 during day 4 >>> 2:3 during day 5

no eliming and eliming a town this day is practically the same. however the difference is that there is a possibility for t3 to roll scum and that goes for any elim we do today since we can't no elim already having doing so today or mafia would win. it also gives us better insight on the night 4 kill, questioning who would mafia kill here.

i think i rather have the mafia figure out to kill between towncore players that have been townread all this game (and this would make the kill now based on associates and question why did they make that kill) not ppl like pooky/mena/t3 who have had sum doubts bout other ppl.

@bingle

Theory cap time, then I'm going to bed.


No. The point of no limming into odds is this: There are fewer suspects to be considered. It has been shown empirically that the number of suspects to be considered is far more impactful on a game of mafia than the number of town voices available. This is the reason that games with arsonist scum tend to be far more scumsided than normal, even with the possibility of accidentally netting an extra mislim via limming primed town players. It is very rarely the case that a town voice is worth premature burnination.

The presumption that T3 was clearly the lim yesterday is utterly meaningless, because the odds T3 was the lim yesterday are objectively lower than the odds T3 is the lim today. If T3 is the scummiest player, T3 probably gets yeeted regardless of which day it is. What happened with the no lim is that the odds of an A50 lim were split between the remaining living players.

With a vast oversimplification of subjective reads, we went from 2/7 to hit scum to 2/6 to hit scum, still with a projected 0 ICs in XLO.

[Not_Mafia]

Menalque why the Grandpa Mo townread?

[GrandpaMo]

Rn I’m at

T3 > gypyx > you/NM > mo

im assuming that once t3 flips scum you think its gypyx?

because u told me u think its t3 + nd u/nm or sum shit