Newbie 2065 | The Backrooms | Endgame

[The Bulge]

I mean, the first was just saying that I didn't agree with Bulge that if someone else told them to read that it had to be the mafia, but we've already established that that isn't that important.

As for the second, I do regret bringing attention to it, since if it had been a breadcrumb I could've been bringing attention to the PR, which isn't the best plan.

And I completely misunderstood how everyone was reacting to it and thought the most people were in agreement with them being Masons, hence my being confused with the votes on Xlos happening that way.

By the way, my point wasn't that you brought it up, it was the you spotted it in the first place. I didn't, because I wasn't looking for town PRs. It was not until you commented that it could be more then a joke that I even realized it could be a pr slip

ftr I don't put a lot of faith in "scum mindset" tells like this, especially in newbies

[The Bulge]

I'm not so sure about Zyla being it. It seems like Lukewarm and Bulge are suspecting her in part because they don't understand her logic, especially Bulge:

I'm arguing that her theories don't make logical sense because they are fabricated to push a narrative.

But with 1 player left, I don't think that the validity of the logic matters so much in detecting scum. Since they have nobody to protect besides themselves, there isn't much point in manipulating the logic to support a conclusion on someone to eliminate. Like a vanilla townie, they just need to focus on the fact they themselves don't want to be eliminated.

hard disagree. "don't elim me im town!!!!!!!! uhmm idk whos scum tho lol" simply gets you killed for being useless.

Now, this is of course not a totally correct story - they might want to choose the right player to vote out. But I guess I don't see too much benefit in her trying to get Wayward Son over Egix. Especially since WS doesn't seem to suspect her much.

Zyla would have to be town, if I'm right.

again, that's just not how scum dayplay works. getting rid of people who suspect you is what the NK is for. if scum is only suspecting people who suspect them in return, they are extremely easy to catch.

[The Bulge]

Bulge - Slight town lean for starting with a serious vote and being willing to give Zyla more time to simmer rather than heading straight in on a push.

VOTE: Xlos

It's either this or Bulge imo. From re-reading, I think everyone else is town.

I have the bulge as pretty hard town tbh

Are you willing to go into more detail on this? I'm asking because I don't think I'll be able to form an actual read on Bulge that isn't just PoE, otherwise.

Could you explain this progression, please?

this actually looks quite townie [for Egix] to me

[The Bulge]

back to work. more later

[Wayward Son]

I think Roden was suspicious over Egix putting T3 to L1. At least that was all I saw.

[Xlos]

I think Roden was suspicious over Egix putting T3 to L1. At least that was all I saw.

Yeah, in particular their last few posts were extremely aggressive towards Egix, basically saying the same was solved

[Xlos]

I'm not so sure about Zyla being it. It seems like Lukewarm and Bulge are suspecting her in part because they don't understand her logic, especially Bulge:

I'm arguing that her theories don't make logical sense because they are fabricated to push a narrative.

Right, but what narrative?

But with 1 player left, I don't think that the validity of the logic matters so much in detecting scum. Since they have nobody to protect besides themselves, there isn't much point in manipulating the logic to support a conclusion on someone to eliminate. Like a vanilla townie, they just need to focus on the fact they themselves don't want to be eliminated.

hard disagree. "don't elim me im town!!!!!!!! uhmm idk whos scum tho lol" simply gets you killed for being useless.

I'm not saying that there is no point in using logic to find scum. Rather, I'm saying there's no point in manipulating the logic to support a conclusion. If I were scum now, I would be trying to think from a townie perspective and see who actually looks the most suspicious. I wouldn't try to twist the words to make anyone seem more innocent/scummy than they really are to the town mindset that I'm cultivating.

Now, this is of course not a totally correct story - they might want to choose the right player to vote out. But I guess I don't see too much benefit in her trying to get Wayward Son over Egix. Especially since WS doesn't seem to suspect her much.

Zyla would have to be town, if I'm right.

again, that's just not how scum dayplay works. getting rid of people who suspect you is what the NK is for. if scum is only suspecting people who suspect them in return, they are extremely easy to catch.

Fair enough, I think I disproved my own logic with my last paragraph there.

[Xlos]

Tangent aside, going back to earlygame posts, I found this interesting in retrospect:

Zyla, T3, Wayward, Xlos* (* pending response) are my suspects right now.

I'm thinking, if Mix had both scum in this section, wouldn't they be a top priority for the NK? It's what's giving me doubt about flipping my read on Wayward, and also makes me less certain about Xlos.

Why do you suspect Mix has both scum here?

@Xlos:

If I emphasize that I said "if Mix had" (and I probably should have put "had had"), does it make more sense?
I find it very unreasonable for you to be asking that question in good faith.

Ok looking back more carefully, I realize that this is just a proof by contrapositive: If wayward or me were scum, then mix would be more likely to be dead. I didn't expect the logic to be backwards when I read it (in a literal sense more than a figurative one). Though having the only scum in your scumlist doesn't seem that bad especially since iirc me zyla and Wayward were all fairly popular targets for suspicion nearing the end of D1.

[The Bulge]

Right, but what narrative?

simply that she's townie and trying to sort players' alignments. I'm not claiming there's any super focused diversion onto a miselim going on or anything, just that the inconsistencies and lapses in reasoning are easiest explained imo by scum!Zyla putting together fake reads and not fully considering every aspect of how they will be perceived, as oppose to them coming from genuine trains of thought.

But with 1 player left, I don't think that the validity of the logic matters so much in detecting scum. Since they have nobody to protect besides themselves, there isn't much point in manipulating the logic to support a conclusion on someone to eliminate. Like a vanilla townie, they just need to focus on the fact they themselves don't want to be eliminated.

hard disagree. "don't elim me im town!!!!!!!! uhmm idk whos scum tho lol" simply gets you killed for being useless.

I'm not saying that there is no point in using logic to find scum. Rather, I'm saying there's no point in manipulating the logic to support a conclusion. If I were scum now, I would be trying to think from a townie perspective and see who actually looks the most suspicious. I wouldn't try to twist the words to make anyone seem more innocent/scummy than they really are to the town mindset that I'm cultivating.

that's true if we're talking about optimal play. not to disparage against Zyla, but she is a newer player, and oftentimes it can be overwhelming trying to find reasons to suspect and push people you know for a fact are town.

[The Bulge]

like

Honestly, I have no clue at the logic behind it, it's just what it felt like to me.

you see what I'm saying?

[The Bulge]

I do feel like I should pump my brakes a little though. I have a tendency to get tunneled, and I've been spectacularly wrong in many of the loudest of those situations.

[The Bulge]

As far as egix, like I just said, my read is pretty null on them, considering how little they seem to post. Honestly though, with the fact that they've actually posted less than the gm, it's starting to feel more anti-town than just null. I'm tempted to look into his meta and see if that's normal for him as town, and tbh I usually dislike using meta (although it was helpful in T3's case)

I don't usually post a lot, no. Tbf, I probably would have had more if D1 hadn't ended earlier than I expected.

oh man this post sucks

[The Bulge]

I believe Zyla is town. Scum wouldn't make those posts, not even newbscum, and as I said earlier I think she's experienced with this game.

Her and Egix were my two PoE for T3's partner but now it really only leaves Egix. Even if T3 somehow flips town I still don't think Egix looks good.

I believe T3 wants to be hammered ASAP at this point so there's less information to dissect Day 2. His theoretical partner has very little suspicion on them and an ongoing Day 1 threatens that. That's why I refrained from hammering, and potentially why Egix put T3 at hammer range. Maybe to tempt someone to hammer a player who looks like obvscum.

There is another potential but unlikely T3 partner. Does anyone think Wayward vs T3 could've just been scum vs scum?

Hmmm, I'm feeling like the parts I've highlighted here could be pretty important.
Others are welcome to comment.

this one's even worse!!

I'm seeing this a lot more just from these last two but it makes me want to give his iso a lookover.

[The Bulge]

"I'm seeing this" meaning I understand the egix scumreads

[The Bulge]

What do people think about Zyla having exactly 1 town read (me) compared to Egix, who apparently has 4 Town Reads

Spoiler:

VOTE: Xlos

It's either this or Bulge imo. From re-reading, I think everyone else is town.

hmmmmmmmmmmmm

[The Bulge]

To me this post seems pretty aggressive considering that it's not really incriminating so much as just bad logic that he's pointing out. It seems a bit opportunistic, like scum trying to lead an easy lynch. I don't see the deliberation or uncertainty that I'd expect. So Bulge, are you still certain that Zyla is scum?

I feel like this has been answered at this point, but to reiterate, yea I tend to tunnel, and I tend to latch onto things like that, especially when the responses I get from my push are unsatisfying. as of rn I'm feeling somewhat less confident about Zyla than I was, and irrespective of my read there, I want to explore elsewhere, namely Egix.

And another question for you. A lot of people are quoting this post as the reason you are town lean:

Although, T3 almost confirmed by meta analysis on them in post 46. When he looked at how I described his town games vs his scum games, his response was "that's fair" not "you cherry picked those games, that is not always how I play"

Which is why his full response has me really confused. Saying "your meta analysis on me is fair, but you should also think that Wayward Son is scum" is wild. Like the more I think about it the stranger it is tbh. He never says I am wrong in my analysis. He never even says he is not scum. He agrees with my analysis, but then says "your theory only works if I'm scum with Wayward."

Which is a strange connection for a town player to draw between themselves and someone they are scum reading. If he thinks Wayward Son could be scum, then he should know that that is setting himself up to be miselimed Day 2 if Wayward Son does get flipped scum today.

But on the otherhand, if T3 IS scum, then he may know for a fact that Wayward Son is town, and therefore he knows that it is safe to tie his alignment to theirs.

It is a common scum tactic to try and pair either themselves or their partners with a town player. That way, if they town player flips first, it can soft clears the scum player, or on the other hand, if the scum player flips first, it can net the scum team a miselim the next day, helping their partner still secure a victory.

If you'd like some

legal

meta, I just modded a large normal where scumT3 laid down some incredibly bizarre distancing tactics D1 before being eliminated that ultimately factored into his team's win. giving me similar vibes here.

Given that we're in the same situation as this game, I have to say that I'm curious what the 'bizarre distancing tactics' encompassed.

most notably, he counterclaimed his partner's fakeclaim with no warning. that partner survived to endgame on a 1-shot Cop claim after being heavily suspected d1.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86404
T3 iso

[The Bulge]

I came into today with zyla and xlos as my top 2 (along with roden) but xlos's posting today has made me feel pretty good about him

[The Bulge]

inb4 pocketing comment

[Xlos]

So I checked time stamps. She learns how to do it herself as of post 61 [Wed May 26, 2021 8:24 pm], then is ready to vote T3 as of post 63 [Wed May 26, 2021 8:36 pm] so she seemed skeptical of my meta case, but then changed her mind like 10 mins later. That is why I asked how many games she looked at.

@Zyla, after I explained how to look at T3's games yourself, how many did you look over to decide that my meta case was not cherry picked?

I ended up looking at the same amount you posted, because I could only find the one scum!t3 game and a lot of t3's games seemed to be expiremental/non-standard

10 mins seemed like a short amount of time to find out she could read them herself, then hunt for any other scum games other then the one I pointed out, read through apparently 5 games worth of isos from T3, and then form a conclusion on his alignment this game.

Maybe I am just slow at meta reading people, but I feel like I would have needed more time then that

Yeah this does seem fairly strange. Along with all the arguments Bulge is providing, I'm definitely rethinking the townread on Zyla. Ultimately the core of my argument for Egix and against Zyla relates to the mafia NK, and maybe I'm putting too much faith into something controlled by the enemy (albeit in a limited way). Though before I am totally convinced I'd like to hear someone's opinion against this defense of zyla:

The more the day wears on the less I'm feeling like Zyla. Not only is the nightkill strange for a general player in her position, but it's strange for what I get of her personality in her position. Unless she was lying about if she thought that I was a mason during the night. Since this implies she was not PR hunting. Maybe she was trying to frame Egix, but she didn't even realize who killing Roden would insinuate 253. All in all it just seems incredibly unlikely. Here are the options I can think of for her being a mafia -

1) She's been lying constantly about everything from whether she thought I was a mason to who she thought the nightkill would be framing
2) She had some incredibly unlikely reasoning for the kill (like hoping that a post like this one would appear)
3) She rolled a die for the NK

I don't see any of these things having much chance of being real.

To me this really does seem like a very strong argument, I'm wondering if anyone thinks that I'm missing a likely case or thinks that one of these 3 cases is actually quite probable for some reason I can't see.

I do feel like I should pump my brakes a little though. I have a tendency to get tunneled, and I've been spectacularly wrong in many of the loudest of those situations.

In other news, the last few posts from Bulge are giving me town vibes.

pedit: pocketing

[The Bulge]

I guess it seems weird that it would take her 18 mins to answer the question "who are your top 3 scum reads," but then only 12 mins to do a meta dive on T3

I don't like the first part, 18 mins to make a post could be 3 mins typing after 15 mins on the shitter. but the rest of what you're saying is actually pretty compelling

[The Bulge]

Fluff @ bulge

Spoiler:

In 2167 I keep thinking you're town and am rooting for you. Confbias??

NO spoilers!

ahhhhhhhhhhhhh that game

I won't spoil. but just.

[The Bulge]

All fluff

I got to page 62.

Also, a famous scummer said "I prefer real time interrogations." - ffery

Night all

yea honestly you're probably gonna end up reading more than I ever did haha

[The Bulge]

woops that's the part I tried not to spoil in my previous post sorry lol

[The Bulge]

While laying in the dark (not sleeping),I kinda decided that I'd like to push Egix all the way to a claim. If he claims a PR, we can address it tomorrow.

this post is so chaotic if wayward is scum hahaha but I discounted that possibility a while ago

[The Bulge]

mix slot still town. welcome, dude.