FFVII Mafia: Over

[wolframnhart]

Oi I forgot Emp was in the game

[Zakeri]

Zakeri did get off the ABR wagon today, a few of us did, but is the flip flop enough for a vote?

In combo with his actions regarding xtoxm vs me yesterday, yes.

the mistake here is believing the nature of my flipflop with ABR is the same as the nature of my flipflop with you and Xtoxm.

I had reason to believe that Xtoxm was lying about his cop claim due to the context used, but at the time, I couldn't effectively use it as a tell on his alignment. That, however, crossed with his massclaim idea, was what made me certain he was scum.

My Reason for the switch relied on that sort of thinking.

however, it would be absolutely suicidal to claim Daycop with guilty unless he knew the person he was claiming on was scum. Considering what the alternative answer is, it's safe to assume he has the knowledge, so I'm not too worried about swinging

What I meant to say here was that I believed Xtoxm knew Armlx was scum because they were scum buddies. Under that assumption, I felt no qualms about switching. I subsequently Switched back however when it occurred to me that Xtoxm claimed because he was going to get lynched if he didn't, and probably threw out the name of a townie just to make certain one would fall with him.

As for ABR, I'm not entirely convinced he's Scum. His cop claim and the possibility of him being either Cid or Safe-claim Cid doesn't give me a tell either way. I did vote with the intention of getting information out of him, but once he posted the facepalm bear, I realized it was useless and decided to question the person I was most suspicious of.

Speaking of which, I should get around to continuing that.

Ultimately, the point was that I'd rather lynch someone acting scummy and hopping onto a popular bandwagon rather than someone who could have been a cop. At this point though, I have no such compunctions. ABR: Do you have a power role of any sort?

What's the point of asking if he has a Power role? That shouldn't affect whether you think he's scum or not.

[Empking]

Watching.

[wolframnhart]

For what?

[Empking]

I put this on my watched topics.

[wolframnhart]

And we needed to know this because...?

[Empking]

You asked.

[wolframnhart]

nevermind, i should have learned from Small Town that conversations with you go no where.

[kloud1516]

On that note:

a) What makes you believe that major characters will be scum targets? Has anything thus far in the game suggested that this is so? Who's to say the major characters aren't scum themselves? We do not know at this point, so I find it interesting that you would, on Day 2 with as little information as we have, be "pretty sure" that major characters would be scum targets.

Do you have any reason to think the opposite? We're in a theme game based on a game with a clear set of "good guys", and so far the only dead power role was indeed one of the major characters in FFVII.

In other words, the little evidence we do have does support the hypothesis that major characters are more likely to be scum targets/pro-town power roles.

Addressing Bolded Section:

No, it most certainly does NOT support this hypothesis. At all. From what I am seeing in the thread, MisterStrife never claimed to Barret openly--which is a BIG factor that you are omitting. As such, the assumption that scum will go after main characters is still just a guess without much to back it in my opinion, for from what I can tell no one was tipped off as to MisterStrife's character. Sure, the NK could have been the work of scum who saw something others didn't, but it could have also been serendipity, a vig, or another killing role--avenues of thought which are just as reasonable at this point that you seem to have breezed right over. As of now we have the same amount of information that would support the notion of MisterStrife being a target because he was Barret/a power role and scum knew it as we do that would disprove the theory: minimal to none.

Of course, I could have missed something, so if you see anything within the thread posted by MisterStrife that alludes/breadcrumbs him being Barret, which scum may have picked up on please let me know, otherwise I will continue to consider this point invalid.


Addressing Other Questions:

No, I do not have any reason to think the opposite, but since we have not been provided with ample information to support one idea or another I feel that it is necessary for us to analyze both sides and all possible hypotheses instead of simply agreeing with something without facts to back it. As I have pointed out above, your reasoning is flawed, and blindly following ideas without actually scrutinizing them for all of their worth is only going to result in pandemonium among town and hinder our chances at a win.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

On that note:

a) What makes you believe that major characters will be scum targets? Has anything thus far in the game suggested that this is so? Who's to say the major characters aren't scum themselves? We do not know at this point, so I find it interesting that you would, on Day 2 with as little information as we have, be "pretty sure" that major characters would be scum targets.

Do you have any reason to think the opposite? We're in a theme game based on a game with a clear set of "good guys", and so far the only dead power role was indeed one of the major characters in FFVII.

In other words, the little evidence we do have does support the hypothesis that major characters are more likely to be scum targets/pro-town power roles.

Addressing Bolded Section:

No, it most certainly does NOT support this hypothesis. At all. From what I am seeing in the thread, MisterStrife never claimed to Barret openly--which is a BIG factor that you are omitting. As such, the assumption that scum will go after main characters is still just a guess without much to back it in my opinion, for from what I can tell no one was tipped off as to MisterStrife's character. Sure, the NK could have been the work of scum who saw something others didn't, but it could have also been serendipity, a vig, or another killing role--avenues of thought which are just as reasonable at this point that you seem to have breezed right over. As of now we have the same amount of information that would support the notion of MisterStrife being a target because he was Barret/a power role and scum knew it as we do that would disprove the theory: minimal to none.

I think your reasoning is flawed, and/or there's been a misunderstanding. MisterStrife not claiming Barrett is completely irrelevant for my point. Since there have been no name claims (apart from ABR's), the character names could not have been a factor in why the killed people were killed.

What I mean isn't that "people killed by scum are more likely to be major characters", I mean that "major characters are more likely to be town power roles", which coupled with the assumption "scum prefer to kill power roles over townies" (unless your contesting that too?) means that major roles are, most likely, more valuable targets than minor roles. If someone nameclaims a minor role and someone else nameclaims a major role, I'd expect the major character to be more attractive to kill, ignoring other factors. The evidence I was referring to was that the only killed power role and the only killed major (as in playable in FFVII) character was the same person. Might be the sample size is too small to draw reliable conclusions, but nevertheless.

No, I do not have any reason to think the opposite, but since we have not been provided with ample information to support one idea or another I feel that it is necessary for us to analyze both sides and all possible hypotheses instead of simply agreeing with something without facts to back it. As I have pointed out above, your reasoning is flawed, and blindly following ideas without actually scrutinizing them for all of their worth is only going to result in pandemonium among town and hinder our chances at a win.

I'm not suggesting "blindly following ideas" and I don't believe my reasoning is flawed. Ample information we do not have, but we're not fumbling blindly either. Until such point that my hypothesis is proven wrong (ie someone dies that is a major FFVII character but is not a power role), I'll keep it as a working model. I'm not even saying you have to agree with me. Besides, the whole issue is largely pointless to discuss for me other than as an intellectual exercise, as there is very little gamewise for me to gain. I only brought it up because you made a - IMHO much more unfounded - suggestion that the major characters might be scum, which I see no evidence at all to support in the game or, looking at a larger scale, seems likely to be something done in mafia games.

but since we have not been provided with ample information to support one idea or another

About this part of your post, which is "one idea" and which is "another" from your point of view?

Also, would you argue that one of these is more likely than the other (if so, which one)?
a) "The major characters are likely to be scum-aligned"
b) "The major characters are likely to be town-aligned"

[wolframnhart]

So if i have followed this correctly Cavebear, do you find it odd that ABR was not killed a night after claiming a major character and powerrole?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

So if i have followed this correctly Cavebear, do you find it odd that ABR was not killed a night after claiming a major character and powerrole?

I don't really have an opinion either way about that.

I'm of the opinion that it's mostly pointless to speculate about why someone DID NOT die, especially early in the game. (Speculating about why someone DID die is slightly more useful and interesting, but still not something I often do.) There's all sorts of possible reasons why he'd still be alive, many of them wifom:y.

[wolframnhart]

So if i have followed this correctly Cavebear, do you find it odd that ABR was not killed a night after claiming a major character and powerrole?

I don't really have an opinion either way about that.

I'm of the opinion that it's mostly pointless to speculate about why someone DID NOT die, especially early in the game. (Speculating about why someone DID die is slightly more useful and interesting, but still not something I often do.) There's all sorts of possible reasons why he'd still be alive, many of them wifom:y.

Fair enough, was just seeing if I was following your line of thinking.

[kloud1516]

On that note:

a) What makes you believe that major characters will be scum targets? Has anything thus far in the game suggested that this is so? Who's to say the major characters aren't scum themselves? We do not know at this point, so I find it interesting that you would, on Day 2 with as little information as we have, be "pretty sure" that major characters would be scum targets.

Do you have any reason to think the opposite? We're in a theme game based on a game with a clear set of "good guys", and so far the only dead power role was indeed one of the major characters in FFVII.

In other words, the little evidence we do have does support the hypothesis that major characters are more likely to be scum targets/pro-town power roles.

Addressing Bolded Section:

No, it most certainly does NOT support this hypothesis. At all. From what I am seeing in the thread, MisterStrife never claimed to Barret openly--which is a BIG factor that you are omitting. As such, the assumption that scum will go after main characters is still just a guess without much to back it in my opinion, for from what I can tell no one was tipped off as to MisterStrife's character. Sure, the NK could have been the work of scum who saw something others didn't, but it could have also been serendipity, a vig, or another killing role--avenues of thought which are just as reasonable at this point that you seem to have breezed right over. As of now we have the same amount of information that would support the notion of MisterStrife being a target because he was Barret/a power role and scum knew it as we do that would disprove the theory: minimal to none.

I think your reasoning is flawed, and/or there's been a misunderstanding. MisterStrife not claiming Barrett is completely irrelevant for my point. Since there have been no name claims (apart from ABR's), the character names could not have been a factor in why the killed people were killed.

What I mean isn't that "people killed by scum are more likely to be major characters", I mean that "major characters are more likely to be town power roles", which coupled with the assumption "scum prefer to kill power roles over townies" (unless your contesting that too?) means that major roles are, most likely, more valuable targets than minor roles. If someone nameclaims a minor role and someone else nameclaims a major role, I'd expect the major character to be more attractive to kill, ignoring other factors. The evidence I was referring to was that the only killed power role and the only killed major (as in playable in FFVII) character was the same person. Might be the sample size is too small to draw reliable conclusions, but nevertheless.

Here is how I viewed your case:

A) Original Premiss[es]: Main characters will be power roles.
Main characters will be scum targets.

B) Reasoning:
i) Barret is a main character in FFVII
ii) Barret was NKed Night 1
iii) Barret was a power role
iv) Because Barret is a main character in FFVII, was NKed Night 1, and was a power role, all main characters will be power roles and scum will target all claimed main characters.

I felt that you were arguing MisterStrife was killed because scum thought he was a main character based off of information Day 1. This is why I posed the argument that he never claimed Barret and therefore reasoning that he was the scum NK choice because of being a main character was invalid. Furthermore, I was trying to impress upon you the thought that this could also have not been the work of scum, but of a vig or other role with a killing ability--so arguing that scum killed MisterStrife might not be the case. I am aware that these (both the paraphrase above and this paragraph) do not coincide with your explanation of your case above, but this was how I interpreted your post 560.

I do see what you are saying now as well, and I do agree that scum would be more inclined to eliminate power roles as opposed to vanilla townies. What I did not/still do not agree with is the fact that you (and several others) seem insistent that major characters will be pro-town power roles. The reason I am not sure at the moment is because I do not think that the mods would make it so easy for scum, but I would rather not attempt to provide reasoning based on possible logic of the mods so I will stay away from this. My point was that it is still very early in the game, and for someone to be "pretty sure" early Day 2 that all major characters will be pro-town only foreshadows disaster. Once we have more information, my thoughts on the matter may change, but this is where I stand at the moment.

No, I do not have any reason to think the opposite, but since we have not been provided with ample information to support one idea or another I feel that it is necessary for us to analyze both sides and all possible hypotheses instead of simply agreeing with something without facts to back it. As I have pointed out above, your reasoning is flawed, and blindly following ideas without actually scrutinizing them for all of their worth is only going to result in pandemonium among town and hinder our chances at a win.

I'm not suggesting "blindly following ideas" and I don't believe my reasoning is flawed. Ample information we do not have, but we're not fumbling blindly either. Until such point that my hypothesis is proven wrong (ie someone dies that is a major FFVII character but is not a power role), I'll keep it as a working model. I'm not even saying you have to agree with me. Besides, the whole issue is largely pointless to discuss for me other than as an intellectual exercise, as there is very little gamewise for me to gain. I only brought it up because you made a - IMHO much more unfounded - suggestion that the major characters might be scum, which I see no evidence at all to support in the game or, looking at a larger scale, seems likely to be something done in mafia games.

but since we have not been provided with ample information to support one idea or another

About this part of your post, which is "one idea" and which is "another" from your point of view?

"One Idea:" Major characters from the game will be pro-town power roles.

"Another:" Not all major characters from the game with be pro-town power roles. I believe I was using this term collectively to refer both to ideas that opposed the "one idea" and to ideas that have not yet been expressed. In the context of that post, however, the first sentence of this paragraph applies.

Also, would you argue that one of these is more likely than the other (if so, which one)?
a) "The major characters are likely to be scum-aligned"
b) "The major characters are likely to be town-aligned"

No, I would not argue either of these at the moment. This being said, I would also like to add this possibility:

c) "The major characters will be both anti-town and pro-town"

Into the collection above, as this is what I had inferred before the game even started. Granted, I am open to all three possibilities, but at the moment I feel as though the characters and their alignments were evenly distributed between scum and town. I acknowledge that I have no evidence to back this up, which is why I am willing to look at the many different possibilities until we have information to prove one and rule out others.

b) second response I agree with you on. I still do not believe that a character's alignment within the game may necessarily indicate alignment/abilities within this game. We have no information to support or disprove certain character's possessing certain abilities, and dwelling on such things will only snare the town in role and character speculation void of substantial evidence.

Our current discussion is what I was referring to with this point. I do not feel that any hypothesis at the moment has enough evidence to support it, and I think that both of us have expressed our views on this topic quite thoroughly. I won't mind bringing this discussion back up once we have more information in our hands, but at the moment I would like to continue looking at others.

@ MB:

I still would like for you to answer my questions, for I still feel that phrases like "pretty sure" and "mafia are definitely Shinra related" are pretty strong conclusions this early in the game.

[armlx]

Cavebear, logic fail on the fact ABR was an easy lynch given the fact he lied D1.

[Empking]

Does the recent discussion actually help the town?

We can only really discuss one thing at a time and I don't think that one thing should be set up discussion.

[GhostWriter]

Does the recent discussion actually help the town?

We can only really discuss one thing at a time and I don't think that one thing should be set up discussion.

I second this. We don't even have enough information (ie, dead people, who provide us with roles, names, and alignments to look at) to have exceptionally helpful set up discussion.

[Yosarian2]

Someone want to explain why we're trying to figure out what the rolenames of pro-town power roles are? This whole discussion is a bad idea...too much risk of people accidently hinting if they are or are not pro-town power roles in the process of the discussion.

[armlx]

Yos2, apparently it relates to people wanting to lynch ABR, but not wanting to b/c he claimed a main character.

Basically, its dumb to auto-clear him based on being a main character, but its also dumb to be lynching him for what amounts to a null tell for him.

[GhostWriter]

Yos2, apparently it relates to people wanting to lynch ABR, but not wanting to b/c he claimed a main character.

Basically, its dumb to auto-clear him based on being a main character, but its also dumb to be lynching him for what amounts to a null tell for him.

Which would, essentially, make everything that transpired pointless?

[Zakeri]

Which would, essentially, make everything that transpired pointless?

Yes. Which is why we should change the subject back to who is more likely to be scum.

[armlx]

Which would, essentially, make everything that transpired pointless?

No. There's still 2 wagons of data to analyze from yesterday, plus the push on ABR today.

[iamausername]

Yeah, OK, I guess my ABR vote is more "If he's scum and gets away with this, I will be SO MAD" than actually thinking he is definite scum. And I guess that's not the best play to make.

Unvote

.

But seriously, if he is scum and gets away with this, I will be SO MAD.

---

I've gone back and reread D1 with the knowledge of iLord's alignment to see if I could pick up a connection with anyone, but I got nothing. Xtoxm/armlx/ABR eclipsed everything else.

Gonna

Vote: CallMeLiam

.

- He made a serious attempt to get someone besides Xtoxm or armlx lynched, thus delaying the resolution of that issue for another day. Up until that was resolved, everyone else would pretty much get a free ride.

- His statement of wanting to "test the cop who claims first" makes absolutely no sense. There is no reason why the order that Xtoxm and ABR claimed in should have made a difference. If he'd said he didn't believe ABR's claim, that would be different, but he never gave any indication that he didn't believe the claim, just that he wanted to ignore it until Xtoxm's claim was tested.

[Albert B. Rampage]

^^^^ Don't worry I'm not scum. And you raise good arguments against Liam.

Vote: CallMeLiam

[Empking]

^^^^ Don't worry I'm not scum. And you raise good arguments against Liam.

Vote: CallMeLiam

I don't like this post but I don't why. I think it seems too eager.