Newbie 2067 - Pizza! - End!

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2-2

New York Style pizza features a large, hand-tossed dough which cooks up crispy at the edge and is otherwise soft, thin and flexible enough that it can be folded in half to eat. Traditionally, New York Style pizza is topped with a tomato sauce and mozzarella cheese, only.

Save The Dragons

(2): Lukewarm, Pavowski

Not Voting

(6): Save The Dragons, cyrus62, HockeyFan, Azeru, Haschel Cedricson, Zyla

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: June 28, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-06-27 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Save The Dragons]

i like azeru for town i liked his commentary at the end of the day towards cyrus. i like his questioning. i wish he would talk more.

i like luke for town. he's wrong about me. i wish he'd stop talking to cyrus altogether but trying to reason with him seems town to me. i think he's asking good questions.

pav has some iioa posts like his vote tracker but has kept some of his thoughts close to the vest here. of the three i find him the scummiest. I wish he would talk a little more as well, he could be lurky scum unsure of what to say.

it could be something like {Haschel, Hockeyfan} but i'm going to try VOTE: Pavowski for now

[cyrus62]

i like azeru for town i liked his commentary at the end of the day towards cyrus. i like his questioning. i wish he would talk more.

i like luke for town. he's wrong about me. i wish he'd stop talking to cyrus altogether but trying to reason with him seems town to me. i think he's asking good questions.

pav has some iioa posts like his vote tracker but has kept some of his thoughts close to the vest here. of the three i find him the scummiest. I wish he would talk a little more as well, he could be lurky scum unsure of what to say.

it could be something like {Haschel, Hockeyfan} but i'm going to try VOTE: Pavowski for now

yes the hammer was wrong yet the game kepth going back to strange i disliked no one trying im not so sure about haschel or hockey anymore i wont be sure untill i know what happen last night.

[Azeru]

I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:

I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.

Do not

make any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.

Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.

1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet know

who

the other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.

2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.

My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?

I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.

Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.

[HockeyFan]

i like azeru for town i liked his commentary at the end of the day towards cyrus. i like his questioning. i wish he would talk more.

i like luke for town. he's wrong about me. i wish he'd stop talking to cyrus altogether but trying to reason with him seems town to me. i think he's asking good questions.

pav has some iioa posts like his vote tracker but has kept some of his thoughts close to the vest here. of the three i find him the scummiest. I wish he would talk a little more as well, he could be lurky scum unsure of what to say.

it could be something like {Haschel, Hockeyfan} but i'm going to try VOTE: Pavowski for now

I really dont know how I feel about my top scumread voting one of my other scumreads/leans lol, maybe Pav is town because of this? Also @STD, can u explain the haschel/me pairing?

[HockeyFan]

I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:

I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.

Do not

make any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.

Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.

1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet know

who

the other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.

2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.

My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?

I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.

Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.

yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)

[Azeru]

yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)

I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.

[cyrus62]

I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:

I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.

Do not

make any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.

Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.

1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet know

who

the other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.

2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.

My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?

I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.

Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.

i dont like it but i will say we vote 8 alive lets put it like this type yes mass or no mass in a singer post alone . reason why i think it is bad is not for me . we had no kill last night becuse doc saved me . or jail keep locked up scum.

[cyrus62]

cyrus 62 votes no mass

[cyrus62]

to finish scum will aim at the other pr so they can take us down faster.

[HockeyFan]

yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)

I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.

913

[Pavowski]

I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:

I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.

Do not

make any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.

Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.

1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet know

who

the other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.

2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.

My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?

I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.

Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.

I do not think a FC is in order.

The most likely situation is that we have a tracker (Cyrus) and a doctor (x). We can infer this because Cyrus outed himself d1 and there was no kill n1. (Other situations are possible, but this feels most plausible right now.)

A FC at this point will reveal the doctor, whom the mafia will surely kill n2. If we don't FC, the mafia will be exactly where they were last night -- they know* Cyrus is the tracker, and must choose a target from among the remaining villagers, hoping to hit the doctor, meanwhile knowing Cyrus is tracking them every night.

What does it benefit the rest of town to know who the doctor is right now? Versus what does it benefit the mafia?

Doctor should stay hidden.

Now, if there are big brain plays that I haven't thought about possible, then that calculus may change. But given the most likely scenario, I absolutely think a FC benefits mafia more than town.

[Pavowski]

I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:

I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.

Do not

make any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.

Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.

1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet know

who

the other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.

2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.

My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?

I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.

Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.

I don't mean to double post, but I'm thinking about this more and trying to organize thoughts. If #2 is true, why was there no death last night? Either mafia got jailed or their target did, either of which would be a shot in the dark by a jail keeper. Or the mafia targeted a villager who was *also* targeted by the village doc (who didn't bother to save Cyrus despite his claim). That'd be a pretty big coincidence.

OR, maybe the mafia has a serious big brain play in mind and didn't kill last night to sow unrest. But I just have a hard time buying this.

In short, as much as I want to believe Cyrus is mafia for his anti-town act, I don't think there's a reasonable way to square it right now. I also really think that, if he *were* mafia making a gambit to claim tracker, and somebody had info to counter his claim, somebody would have made *some* effort to crumb that out to us. Much more likely: Cyrus is legit, the doc saved him, and the doc should stay hidden. (For now.)

[Pavowski]

yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)

I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.

913

913 looks good for Luke but is not conclusive, unless I'm misunderstanding mechanics.

[Azeru]

yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)

I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.

913

Even if we're assuming that there were no deaths because of a Doctor save, this doesn't mean much. There are two mafia, and either one could be the one to do their night kill. Luke going nowhere doesn't mean he's not mafia. All this means is that he wasn't the one that sent the night kill action.

[Azeru]

yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)

I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.

913

Even if we're assuming that there were no deaths because of a Doctor save, this doesn't mean much. There are two mafia, and either one could be the one to do their night kill. Luke going nowhere doesn't mean he's not mafia. All this means is that he wasn't the one that sent the night kill action.

[Azeru]

Sorry again for the double post. I'm not sure why it's doing that.

[Save The Dragons]

i think outing the other PR helps scum more than it helps us at this point since scum have a few kills left to get to the end. otoh the 50/50 becomes more dangerous the less time we have to lim people, but even so I still think massclaiming helps scum more

[Azeru]

What does it benefit the rest of town to know who the doctor is right now? Versus what does it benefit the mafia?

Oh, definitely a Doctor being outed is better for mafia than it is for town, but that's only part of it. It is one of the major downsides that I am taking into consideration. My issue is trusting Cyrus to be involved in "the most likely scenario" when (I think?) a mass claim would shed light onto him. Like yeah yeah occam's razor and all that, but can we really bank on that? We're talking about a player that was completely left out of some read lists day 1 due to being borderline unreadable. My big question is would it or would it not be worth doing to know where Cyrus actually lies.

[Save The Dragons]

i like azeru for town i liked his commentary at the end of the day towards cyrus. i like his questioning. i wish he would talk more.

i like luke for town. he's wrong about me. i wish he'd stop talking to cyrus altogether but trying to reason with him seems town to me. i think he's asking good questions.

pav has some iioa posts like his vote tracker but has kept some of his thoughts close to the vest here. of the three i find him the scummiest. I wish he would talk a little more as well, he could be lurky scum unsure of what to say.

it could be something like {Haschel, Hockeyfan} but i'm going to try VOTE: Pavowski for now

I really dont know how I feel about my top scumread voting one of my other scumreads/leans lol, maybe Pav is town because of this? Also @STD, can u explain the haschel/me pairing?

how come Pav voting me did nothing for you but me voting pav makes you think he's town?

it was an example of two people off the wagon that i'm a little suspicious of.

[Zyla]

yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)

I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.

913

913 looks good for Luke but is not conclusive, unless I'm misunderstanding mechanics.

That is correct, yes. Assuming Cyrus isn't pulling a column C gambit, there are two possibilities for Cyrus telling the truth and Luke being scum. Luke is a mafia goon, and his partner did the action and the kill, or Luke preformed the NK and/or the action, but was Jailed.

[HockeyFan]

yea I think this is good? At worst we get 1 extra confirmed town on top of cyrus and Luke(Im going under the principle that Luke is green checked(correct me if im wrong) and at best we get 4 green IF the doc saved someone either than cyrus(very unlikely)

I would just like to know why exactly you think Luke is confirmed town.

913

Even if we're assuming that there were no deaths because of a Doctor save, this doesn't mean much. There are two mafia, and either one could be the one to do their night kill. Luke going nowhere doesn't mean he's not mafia. All this means is that he wasn't the one that sent the night kill action.

Oh i forgot that mafia can choose who visits the kill, sorry im used to the other site I played on where all mafia visit the NK.

[Pavowski]

I'd like to consider something at this point. And before I even bring it up, I want to make it very very clear:

I AM NOT ACTIVELY ADVOCATING FOR THIS.

Do not

make any claims based on this post alone, I just would like to get everybody's opinion on the thought.

Would a mass claim be potentially useful for us? Here's my thought process: Cyrus has claimed Tracker. I don't know if I entirely believe it, and I think that some other people are in that boat with me if I'm not mistaken. If Cyrus is town, there would be absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to lie and claim Tracker (although he's done other things with no explanation, so I'm taking this with a grain of salt, though I'm humoring it to be true for the purposes of this post). So for situation one, let's pretend that that Cyrus is town.

1) Cyrus is Tracker, mafia can trust this. So like I said at the end of day 1, there is a chance that mafia already knows the setup and what the other PR is. They don't yet know

who

the other PR is, so a mass claim would out that to mafia. On the flipside, if Cyrus really is Tracker, I wouldn't expect any counterclaims on the second PR, so we could get town the information of what setup we're in, and have two confirmed towns in our PRs. In the case that mafia does decide to counterclaim, we have a 50/50 that was can then look over, and at least one mafia that we can take down for sure.

2) Cyrus is mafia, lying about being Tracker, and nobody's counterclaimed yet out of fear of the 50/50, or fear of giving up to mafia that they're a PR. In this situation though, mafia do not know the setup or possible power roles. Although nobody getting night killed has implications, because mafia just choosing not to kill is... questionable. In any case, mass claiming in this situation gets us a counterclaim against Cyrus to have the 50/50 outing him, and again, will give the information of what setup we're in, and have confirmed town in PR once the 50/50 is sorted out.

My other thought behind this is that the past couple of pages feel like there's some mild PR hunting anyways, so why not lean into it and put everything on the table?

I am asking this as a genuine question to more experienced players than myself. Is anything in these scenarios wrong? Am I missing any other major downsides? In my head right now, it feels like the worst case scenario is that we end up with two confirmed towns, and major insight into our most confusing player. Mafia then know who is who, but if Cyrus is Tracker, they've got half of it figured out anyways. Town gets a narrowed down scumlist.

Do the pros outweigh the cons? Is the whole idea banking too much on Cyrus' Tracker claim? If I'm a dumbass please tell me so.

Okay, last one. I was going back and forth on the fact that we'd have 2 confirmed town to the 2 confirmed mafia, and wouldn't that be nearly good enough to endgame the mafia on its own? Well, yes, it would. If we know that the Doctor is confirmed and the doc has confirmed Cyrus, then that's 2 to 2 and we only have to confirm 1 more town to make it impossible for mafia to win.

Except that the mafia will kill the confirmed doc tonight, and kill Cyrus tomorrow night, and we are back to zero confirmed town with at least one and possibly 2 mafia still out there.

[Lukewarm]

Me not going anywhere does not full clear me.

There are two possibilities where I could be scum, and have not moved.

Obviously, if Cyrus's claim is not true, then I am not cleared at all lol

The other possibility, is that my hypothetical scum partner multitasked - which is possible, but not likely I don't think? It seems like a dangerous move, if they know we have a tracker - the scum PR would be the only person in the game that the tracker could see visit two different player in the same night. So imo, it is most likely that both scum moved/tried to move during the night. The scum PR to use their ability, and the goon to do the NK - But again, that is not guaranteed.

[Lukewarm]

I think that there should not be a mass claim today, but there probably should be one tomorrow. With there not being a NK Night 1, we are in a decent enough place to push that off / deny the info from the scum team for their night kill tonight. But then tomorrow, it will give us a lot of info to work with.