Newbie 2067 - Pizza! - End!

[Lukewarm]

Even if we are killing me today, there is no reason to rush it. We have over 5 days left on our countdown. I just got a big piece of new info to try, and I just want enough time to see if I can come up with a solve to help everyone else before I go.

[cyrus62]

Even if we are killing me today, there is no reason to rush it. We have over 5 days left on our countdown. I just got a big piece of new info to try, and I just want enough time to see if I can come up with a solve to help everyone else before I go.

vin vin its over give it up .

[cyrus62]

ff9 was so cool

[cyrus62]

Vivi my bade

[Pavowski]

I'm all for hearing Luke out and getting confirmation of how a JK blocking a mafia RB would play out, and whether VTs get notified when they get blocked. (@mod, can we get an answer to that?)

But this begs the question: if Luke isn't mafia, why was Cyrus not NK'd or blocked?

If we have a tracker and a JK, then we have a mafia roleblocker.

Surely with 2 mafia that's a block and a NK every night. They would surely divide and conquer on Cyrus's claim of tracker as a tracker is a direct threat to the mafia. Block or kill Cyrus (block seems more likely actually), kill somebody else hoping to hit JK.

So, again - if Luke is town, why is Cyrus *both* alive *and* unblocked?

[Lukewarm]

I have gotten clarification. A VT will not be told if they are jailkept OR if they were roleblocked, AND the scum team would not be notified why their NK did not go through, so they would now know if they were jailkept or if their target was jailkept.

After I flip today, we are going to be in MElo tomrrow, so tomorrow, please look back at what I said and really, really take your time before you vote. IF you get it wrong tomorrow, we lose.

Here are the possibilities from my PoV, from least likely to most likely:

- Azeru is lying about being a jailkeeper

- I don't think that this one is very likely? I had Azeru pegged as town before this claim, plus this is fairly bad play for the scum team to make. Like it could kill me today, and gets both scum to Melo tomorrow, but I still think that this is the least likely scenario I have come up with. Mainly because the real PRs would be able to counter claim, and there is no guarantee that scum!Azeru could even push me through today. If anyone can counter claim Azeru or Cyrus, now is the time to do it. If you are ANY pr, you should out yourself now. If no one counter claims by the end of the day, I would suggest everyone believe Azeru even after seeing my VT flip - don't let that change your opinion.

- Azeru is telling the truth about being the Jailkeeper, but Cyrus is lying about being the tracker.

- If it were any other player who claimed Tracker day 1, I don't think I would really consider this, but looking at Cyrus's iso, it is hard to put anything past him... So, maybe consider this one, but I still think that it is less likely right now then my final theory. This would mean that we are in column c, row 2, and Cyrus decided to gambit with a fake claim out of the gate.

- Azeru and Cyrus are both telling the truth, and the scum team decided that Cyrus's posting style was detrimental enough to the town to ignore him

- I think that this is probably the world that we live in. Cyrus's posts have been so chaotic, and so anti-town, that I would not be surprised if the scum team decided to let him live. My biggest question here, is "if he is telling the truth, why did cyrus not get RB'ed?"

My best guesses are:
-They thought the jailkeeper was going to be protecting Cyrus, so they did not think he would be getting a result anyways
-They knew that Cyrus was going to track me (I think that he made it pretty obvious tbh), and since they were killing me, his result would not matter
-They thought I was the jailkeeper, so they both RB'ed me AND NK'ed me to make sure that the kill went through. That is the only safe way to kill a Jailkeeper, because it stops the jailkeeper from being able to save themselves if there happens to be a cross target between Mafia and the jailkeeper.

[Lukewarm]

TL;DR : Unless someone counter claims today, everyone should treat Azeru as 100% confirmed Jailkeeper even after I flip VT. You should

probably

trust Cyrus's claim, but it is hard for me to say that with 100% confidence because... well its Cyrus. Finally, absolutely no one should believe any PR claims that happen tomorrow. If someone really is a PR, they would step in right now, not wait for us to be in MElo.

[Lukewarm]

I want to give this game another read, assuming we are in 2A, and try to leave my final solve / reads - but it is getting late. I will do that tomorrow - please don't hammer me before I get that out there.

[cyrus62]

Wow vivi you are very good player I love the thought that want in to that
Since my reaction test i been mostly pushing you and HockeyFan scum would have indeed known i was tracking you and I would have got no result and good scum would have not blocked me because they would have known that by doing so I would get no result but that's a gamble you see by doing so the no result would set them up for a fake claim resulting in my miselm. But don't you find it a little funny how zyla was asking if I had no result or that my night action didn't go through. Even though I said I tracked lukewarm and he went no where. Sounds kinda like she expected it not to go through. Now as I said this is my 1st time ever having a power role I have neverd fake claim I have neverd crumb before.

[cyrus62]

no deaths well thanks doc who ever you are. lukewarm went no where last night

To clarify:
Did you get "No action"? Or "No result"?

You see this is a slip. It means her and lukewarm tried to block me but the blocker got jail kept by Azeru which was lukewarm resulting in no death and my night actions going through. That's the game.

[cyrus62]

Just did a light read while in the car heading home, I don't have time for an in depth read, but I will note this:
There is still a chance of Luke being town, if he were the target of the kill rather than the perpetrator. So I think it might be interesting to look at who might want Luke dead specifically
That said, voting Luke could be the way to go today, and I'll look over his ISO again tomorrow

trying to frame someone wont work

[cyrus62]

Azeru i said jail hc but instead lockup Zyla

[cyrus62]

I will track Azeru if I am right we both live and I confirm him As jail keeper

[cyrus62]

so now I will step aside and let the scum put on a show for you.

[Lukewarm]

Insomnia strikes, so I am just going to get my final reads out of the way now.

Hockey, Zyla, and Azeru are all lock town in my eyes. Trust that, and I think that you guys might have a chance. Azeru will probably die tonight, but tomorrow in MElo should start with a Zyla/Hockey Town block.

I would normally suggest doing a No Elimination vote in Melo, to push the decision off to Elo - But, if you guys do that, realize that the scum team will 100% leave cyrus alive, and I don't really want to bet the game on to be 100% in Cyrus's hands.

@Zyla and Hockey, if you guys don't currently mutually town read each other, at least consider my read here. Assuming you guys shoot right in the first night of MElo, which ever of Zyla/Hockey survives the following night should be the town leader moving for the last night.

GTH, the scum team is still [STD, Pav] imo. Finding out that we have a jailkeeper who saved me has only strengthened that read. It now makes Way More sense for the two of them to come out of the gate bussing one another. If they knew that there was a 50/50 chance that the jailkeeper had targeted the scum who tried to kill me, then yeah, they needed to start the day off working as hard as they could to make sure that they were not seen as partners. Scum are paranoid, and would have seen this day as a ticking time bomb until the jailkeeper outed one of them.

I also find it interesting looking at STD's read of Pav from Day 1 to Day 2

Spoiler:

Town
Azeru
Pav
Cyrus

Null (town lean)
Luke
Zyla

Null (scum lean)
Haschel

Scum
Strange
Hockeyfan

i like the wagon composition on strangematter

VOTE: StrangeMatter E-1

pav has some iioa posts like his vote tracker but has kept some of his thoughts close to the vest here. of the three i find him the scummiest. I wish he would talk a little more as well, he could be lurky scum unsure of what to say. ---i'm going to try VOTE: Pavowski for now

Like Pav went from his 2nd highest Town Read, not lean, all the way down to his scummiest scum read. That looks to me like a scum team that is panicking over the jailkeeper save, and are suddenly trying to distance pretty hard.

So final read to leave for MElo:
Azeru is dying tonight
Hockey and Zyla are lock town.
Cyrus and HC are possible, and you should consider all possibilities in Elo, but
GTH, the scum team is STD and Pav

[cyrus62]

wow your really trying hard anit you boy. i found the slip .lukewarm went no where. in no way adds up to no result or no action. that only happens if i was blocked and i wasn't because the blocker was in jail meaning the jail keeper blocked the role blocker. look 8 alive - one scum and no deaths due to me solving the game. will result in no dead town and we would know the jailkeeper is real and the tt is real and the other scum.

[cyrus62]

elim lukewarm day2 elim zyla day3 and town wins .

[Lukewarm]

... I don't know what cyrus is talking about in 1115 - I already explained the scenarios where both Azeru and Cyrus are both telling the truth in 1105. I assume he is not actually reading my posts because he is fully convinced I am scum now.

@Cyrus, I am really glad this is happening now instead of at Melo, because I actually would have to convince you I am town. I am almost certainly going to flip today and you will see that I am telling the truth. All I am asking is that tomorrow you look back to 1105 and 1114, and please be

really

careful with your vote. don't put anyone at e-2 unless you are really sure, because a quick hammer tomorrow will mean a scum win.

[Pavowski]

- Azeru and Cyrus are both telling the truth, and the scum team decided that Cyrus's posting style was detrimental enough to the town to ignore him

- I think that this is probably the world that we live in. Cyrus's posts have been so chaotic, and so anti-town, that I would not be surprised if the scum team decided to let him live. My biggest question here, is "if he is telling the truth, why did cyrus not get RB'ed?"

My best guesses are:
-They thought the jailkeeper was going to be protecting Cyrus, so they did not think he would be getting a result anyways
-They knew that Cyrus was going to track me (I think that he made it pretty obvious tbh), and since they were killing me, his result would not matter
-They thought I was the jailkeeper, so they both RB'ed me AND NK'ed me to make sure that the kill went through. That is the only safe way to kill a Jailkeeper, because it stops the jailkeeper from being able to save themselves if there happens to be a cross target between Mafia and the jailkeeper.

Once again, I find myself agreeing with Luke's logic here, but I don't buy the conclusion he draws. The Cyrus question solves it for me: if Cyrus was not NK'd or RB'd, then Luke being jailed means Luke is mafia.

scum:Luke solves the strangeness of last night's no-kill. To believe otherwise is to believe mafia let a basically known PR run around untouched, and a PR, even one acting bizarrely like Cyrus has, is the biggest threat to the mafia.

VOTE: Lukewarm

[Zyla]

Guys. We just got major information, maybe we should process it for five seconds before an elim

[Pavowski]

Guys. We just got major information, maybe we should process it for five seconds before an elim

I mean, it dropped almost 12 hours ago. I've pondered it overnight and waited until the morning to vote. Luke is still at e-2 by my count; there is still time.

[Zyla]

I think it's E1

[Pavowski]

Cyrus did his patented double vote.

[cyrus62]

no deaths well thanks doc who ever you are. lukewarm went no where last night

To clarify:
Did you get "No action"? Or "No result"?

You see this is a slip. It means her and lukewarm tried to block me but the blocker got jail kept by Azeru which was lukewarm resulting in no death and my night actions going through. That's the game.

#@pav did youreadthis

[Save The Dragons]

whoa