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[Smoke and Mirrors]

5 hours after what is apparently scum trying to gauge where the town is bidding (whether Cyrus is scum or not, tbh he is the only player in the lobby I would say the 125 split is NAI for with confidence). They see nobody is bidding high yet. 5 hours later, in comes Imaginality to lead town toward spending 400 on all roles. Imagine scum dont bid on anything toDay. Town spends 1600,

loses 500, or 100 and a purchased role

, then in the likely situation that they avoid hitting the doctor target and get a kill, that's another 500 down.

The bolded part assumes we mis-exile. We could exile scum...
Even if we grant your assumption, we're 500 (or X and a purchased role) down x2 if scum successfully nightkill regardless of what bidding strategy we implement. It makes no sense not to bid hard - and without a PT the only way we can reliably cover all the PRs (enough to force scum to bid high for them) without scum knowing who to target for their NK is if we each choose randomly.

Where was this strategy before midday? We were already very deep into mechanical discussion when he made his previous post, so why not bring it up before midDay?

Hadn't thought of it by then. At first I was wondering if there was a way we could assign people by name to each PR but that gives scum too much information for their NK tonight and subsequent nights.

While his suggestion is appealing at first, even to me, from a numbers standpoint, I think what they are doing is baiting town into spending a lot of their money so that in later days scum can outbid.

We get our money back if we're outbid.
I think these roles are worth bidding for.
It's less advantageous to us to get roles on later days - less chance to use them, more chance to be NKed before using them.

The next bit gets tinfoil, but I would not be surprised to find out flea is the scum's preferred MO candidate and see that Imaginality eventually concedes and switches his vote there as I'm currently leading. Whether his means flea is scum or one of the scum has a friendly relationship with Flea that may lead Flea to elect that scum as a replacement, I do not know.

Right now if I vote someone other than me as MO I'd lean more towards Cupcake Butterfly.


@Misty re the scumslip: I felt the comment where ssbm assumed the 125 voter was town was suspicious - in that if he is scum (and they aren't the 125 voter(s)), he would know the 125 voter is town. So I feel that apparent assumption could be indicative of hidden knowledge.

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

I don’t understand what he’s thinking. Why publicly out any of this? He’s acting like he’s buying up prs and simultaneously trying to get Nk’d which completely defeats the purpose of doing so. I just don’t find this makes a whole lot of sense because any invest role is useless if you get NK’d. This could also possibly be lamisty. Either way, it looked like he was just throwing votes around without really putting too much thought into any of them.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If we take cyrus being around at deadline as scum-indicative that means they definitely decided to bus Kitty, yes? I don't think I'm ready to sign onto that yet. Whereas Misty was awol and I think D1 was more a case of awol scum than deliberately bussing scum.

Also hi imaginality

Can you talk about why you scumread my slot? I feel like you really haven't done that much, at least that I have seen

I don't have a super strong scum read on you, but I prefer it to ssbm or VFP. As mentioned mastina is higher in my scum reads.

One factor why I lean scum on you is this:

On SS:

SS town read VFP today, when VFP was already at 4 votes. But SS hasn't done anything to try to deter that wagon or start an alternative. I can see that town read as coming from scum who would know VFP will flip town but not want to prevent the mis-elim.

Another is Misty's posts about not bothering to scum hunt because this can be solved by PoE.

Another is Misty didn't seem to be doing much at end of day D1 and I feel like active scum would have more likely saved Kitty than bussed. So therefore I'm more inclined to scum read players who weren't doing much near deadline.

That is NAI for SS though. He procrastinates on voting even more than I do.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I had a great deal of trouble reading Misty until I actually saw her scumgame and it was pretty damned obvious and she wasn’t at all passive in that.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I had a great deal of trouble reading Misty until I actually saw her scumgame and it was pretty damned obvious and she wasn’t at all passive in that.

Scum!Misty actually sounds really really scummy.

[Something_Smart]

One factor why I lean scum on you is this:

Yeah I did see that. I think people can attest that that's just kinda how I operate. I knew I'd be around till deadline, so I was always ready to consolidate on someone acceptable. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

[imaginality]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.[/quote]

I don’t understand what he’s thinking. Why publicly out any of this? He’s acting like he’s buying up prs and simultaneously trying to get Nk’d which completely defeats the purpose of doing so. I just don’t find this makes a whole lot of sense because any invest role is useless if you get NK’d. This could also possibly be lamisty. Either way, it looked like he was just throwing votes around without really putting too much thought into any of them.[/quote]

I doubt the cyrus scum reads because:
- it means scum cyrus didn't try to get on the Kitty wagon despite being active day end
- it means the above quoted post from cyrus, and similar ones, are acting rather than genuine and I don't get that sense; I think confusion is hard to fake and I think he'd be less confused about stuff if he was scum

@cyrus

if you're online, and town, and you haven't yet bid all your money, don't bid any more unless you're no longer the likeliest to be elimmed - if you're town and get elimmed it's better for us if you don't take any powers down with you

[imaginality]

(different to D1 where it would be worth the mis-elim candidate bidding high on the hitman power)

Ugh sorry about quote tag fail

[Smoke and Mirrors]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

I don’t understand what he’s thinking. Why publicly out any of this? He’s acting like he’s buying up prs and simultaneously trying to get Nk’d which completely defeats the purpose of doing so. I just don’t find this makes a whole lot of sense because any invest role is useless if you get NK’d. This could also possibly be lamisty. Either way, it looked like he was just throwing votes around without really putting too much thought into any of them.[/quote]

I doubt the cyrus scum reads because:
- it means scum cyrus didn't try to get on the Kitty wagon despite being active day end
- it means the above quoted post from cyrus, and similar ones, are acting rather than genuine and I don't get that sense; I think confusion is hard to fake and I think he'd be less confused about stuff if he was scum

@cyrus

if you're online, and town, and you haven't yet bid all your money, don't bid any more unless you're no longer the likeliest to be elimmed - if you're town and get elimmed it's better for us if you don't take any powers down with you[/quote]

Well, I’m not necessarily sr Cyrus but I was hard tr SS, so I’m not opposed to a different wagon but I was extremely confident on SS!town and wanted to save him. So, if we can get 4 votes on a scummy slot, that would obviously be ideal.

But I really don’t know who. Who am I wrong on?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@Imaginality, I wanted to save bleeding obvtown!SS and I didn’t know who else to vote. So if you have a better idea we can get 4 votes on or maybe 5, I’ll switch.

[Gamma Emerald]

It’s probably too late to switch anyway

[marcistar]

It seems we all agree on cyrus but actually look at this post and look at marci's vote and unvote, then immediately after the unvote she comes back and doesnt put her vote back or even comment on VFP, but instead provides a fence-sitting stance on me. I'm town and MO, so it would make sense to me if scum want to get me limmed but dont want to get their hands dirty doing it.

Marci, Cyrus, Kitty is a team with no MO candidate and would explain why flea and I were leading tvt MOs.

okay queen come talk with me then!! lets chat

ur wording "immediately", it wasnt immediately actually
"fence sitting stance" im not surprised if it could be seen this way, but is scum the only people who fence sit? If i wanted you limmed i would've voted you, but instead i just wanted to talk to smoke and understand what theyre thinking more.

[imaginality]

@Imaginality, I wanted to save bleeding obvtown!SS and I didn’t know who else to vote. So if you have a better idea we can get 4 votes on or maybe 5, I’ll switch.

Something about the tone of this post rings a little off to me. Will think on it overnight.

With the mix of reads I don't think we can get another wagon to 4 or 5 before the day ends. But if you want to come and VOTE: mastina with me feel free...

[imaginality]

@other townies, I don't know if bids will count now or only up to the official deadline, but if you haven't bid yet go bid 500 for something. These are good powers (well I still think gravedigger is overrated, but the other ones are good).

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It seems we all agree on cyrus but actually look at this post and look at marci's vote and unvote, then immediately after the unvote she comes back and doesnt put her vote back or even comment on VFP, but instead provides a fence-sitting stance on me. I'm town and MO, so it would make sense to me if scum want to get me limmed but dont want to get their hands dirty doing it.

Marci, Cyrus, Kitty is a team with no MO candidate and would explain why flea and I were leading tvt MOs.

okay queen come talk with me then!! lets chat

ur wording "immediately", it wasnt immediately actually
"fence sitting stance" im not surprised if it could be seen this way, but is scum the only people who fence sit? If i wanted you limmed i would've voted you, but instead i just wanted to talk to smoke and understand what theyre thinking more.

Oh yeah it is 7 hours later I didnt see the timestamps, just the posts were close in the iso. So yeah not immediately, my bad.

Scum is not the only ones to fence-sit but it is a convenient stance for scum as it allows a sort of "wait and see" that let's them blend in easier. I do see that you were trying to talk to smoke though, and that aligns with what you're saying now.

In 723, between the three candidates Imaginality was presenting (because they all had wagons, not that he necessarily SRed all 3), your tone seemed unsure because you were wanting to give S_S time to contribute, and preferred VFP over mastina because you TR mastina. I think a lot of players right now are saying things like that ("idk who it is but I prefer X over my townread").

Could you go into your mastina townread reasoning?

Do you think S_S has contributed enough to be town for toDay, or do you have a different opinion on them?

Now there's been a little bit longer to figure things out, do you have any new scumreads outside of the 3 Imaginality presented?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@Imaginality, I wanted to save bleeding obvtown!SS and I didn’t know who else to vote. So if you have a better idea we can get 4 votes on or maybe 5, I’ll switch.

Something about the tone of this post rings a little off to me. Will think on it overnight.

With the mix of reads I don't think we can get another wagon to 4 or 5 before the day ends. But if you want to come and VOTE: mastina with me feel free...

What’s wrong with it? It’s really wild to me that I catch scum and keep having to prove I’m town here.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Despite you being on Kitty wagon, I trust Mastina more than you but since I’m now hard tr CB, if Mastina pushes him, that would definitely make me reconsider that read.

[marcistar]

Could you go into your mastina townread reasoning?

im not sure how they usually play, but i think they're just straightup demotivated town trying their best this game. though they kinda mention how theyre not into the game alot (which could be seen as like trying to gain pity or something, not sure if thats the right word) i think theyre genuine in it.

Do you think S_S has contributed enough to be town for toDay, or do you have a different opinion on them?

i dont think they've contributed much for town, i just feel bad if they get elimmed right after subbing in..
819 835 is something i kinda expected them to say eventually, i just feel like they should be given a bit more time to get into things.

Now there's been a little bit longer to figure things out, do you have any new scumreads outside of the 3 Imaginality presented?

brain empty rn, would have to reread to come up with something confidently
tho like, the attacks on cyrus... like it specifically doesnt feel weird, but something around that chunk of time feels a bit weird..

[Something_Smart]

im not sure how they usually play, but i think they're just straightup demotivated town trying their best this game. though they kinda mention how theyre not into the game alot (which could be seen as like trying to gain pity or something, not sure if thats the right word) i think theyre genuine in it.

As someone who is somewhat familiar with her meta, I think this checks out. She isn't usually like this. It could be a weird scum ploy, but more likely it's just true.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Could you go into your mastina townread reasoning?

im not sure how they usually play, but i think they're just straightup demotivated town trying their best this game. though they kinda mention how theyre not into the game alot (which could be seen as like trying to gain pity or something, not sure if thats the right word) i think theyre genuine in it.

Do you think S_S has contributed enough to be town for toDay, or do you have a different opinion on them?

i dont think they've contributed much for town, i just feel bad if they get elimmed right after subbing in..
819 835 is something i kinda expected them to say eventually, i just feel like they should be given a bit more time to get into things.

Now there's been a little bit longer to figure things out, do you have any new scumreads outside of the 3 Imaginality presented?

brain empty rn, would have to reread to come up with something confidently
tho like, the attacks on cyrus... like it specifically doesnt feel weird, but something around that chunk of time feels a bit weird..

Why did you expect 819, 835 out of S_S? Did you scumread misty before the replace?

By the attacks on cyrus, do you mean the wagon that just formed? Is there any person in particular saying weird things, or any pair of posters? There are 4 of us on him I think - if it was weird, who made it that way and why?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Expecting those posts seems odd, I dont see any reference to misty before in Marci's iso.

[Gamma Emerald]

And if people want to kill me because of what Misty did then I have 0 defense against that

you know, I have to actually object to this
I managed to deflect a shitpush on me from scum!Menalque based on my predecessor's posting in a past game
so it is definitely possible to defend against points presented against your predecessor

[Something_Smart]

I mean, that's true. But like, I can't explain anything she did. So if there's a shitpush on her, then anyone else can defend my slot just as easily (more easily, in fact, since they were actually there) as I can.

[Gamma Emerald]

the push on my slot in that game was based on off-site meta and I still managed to control it
idk maybe I'm just built different

[marcistar]

Why did you expect 819, 835 out of S_S? Did you scumread misty before the replace?

i didnt really have a read on them before the replace that i voiced, og in one of my first few posts i think i mentioned them, but i didnt rlly scumread them that hard as the game went on.
what i expected = a replace in being sused to act like that.. an experience ive seen before is when i was playing a game once off site, someone subbed out, and then my friend subbed in for them and they were limmed before they could do much.. their defense was always "i cant explain what [previous player] did, can u please try to read me?" stuff like that, so i was expecting a similar reaction here.

By the attacks on cyrus, do you mean the wagon that just formed? Is there any person in particular saying weird things, or any pair of posters? There are 4 of us on him I think - if it was weird, who made it that way and why?

maybe it could be i just don't like the speed or that im not confident in what he'll flip, or maybe its that nobody is rlly trying to fight smoke on it.. im not sure exactly..
maybe its just how weird something_smart and cupcake butterfly feel around that point, they both followed smoke, but didnt seem so sure in it.

[Something_Smart]

I think it was pretty clear that we were looking for something we could agree on so that I didn't die. I'm certainly not super confident in Cyrus flipping scum, I don't think any of us are, but we think he's the best target.