FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Archer]

I personally feel like I am a pretty hard person to push out in almost every game I have played. As other people have pointed out already, I can generally be a pretty loud and opinionated person, and I also got a few town reads pretty early. So, in general, I don't think that I am the kind of person that scum would target to be their day 1 elim, so I often end up town read people who very loudly scum read me Day 1, because I don't expect scum to do that.

On my main, I have reached the point where I have responded that way enough times, and it has been commented on enough, that I am becoming weary that scum players familiar with me might try that as a tactic in my games, but here, playing anonymously, I don't really have to worry about that (until I brought it up just now).

Also, also 374 has locked in my town read on him. The fact that he stopped, and typed up that wall post helps there. He put a lot of effort into that if he was fake casing me, especially for him to have put it out there in during our Day 0. Plus his reasoning for scum reading me seems genuine

[Servant Beast]

Me, alter, to a lesser extent saber.

Am I lying about your analysis being non-unique? You aren't disagreeing, you're just arguing about how that doesn't make you scum instead. I think town tend to have more of an imagination.

I'm not boxed in, if I were boxed in, I'd be shutting down.

@Archer, no. It's not that I don't agree though, I'm not really sure Caster is town or not. It's that I think you'd be more suspicious/omgusy as town toward people pushing you.

[Servant Beast]

That link to 374 brings me to the front page.

I see Archer. Thank you. That does make sense to me initially, I like self meta. Even though this is an alt game. I'll think on it.

[Servant Beast]

Do you have a notes PT archer?

[Servant Berserker]

I think that’s an angle shoot and is going to get you in trouble js

[Servant Beast]

I retract the question.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Am I lying about your analysis being non-unique? You aren't disagreeing, you're just arguing about how that doesn't make you scum instead. I think town tend to have more of an imagination.

I think that's a fucking idiotic heuristic that has no relevance to actually catching scum and you're flinging garbage at me to see if anything will stick. I think the way I think, and if scum is going to accuse me of that being

boring

, I don't give a shit.

[Servant Archer]

Beast is boxed in and is desperately trying to expand the POE by attacking me and Archer.

I do not agree with this assessment.

If he were scum trying to call us both into question, I feel like he would at least be trying to do it in a convincing way to try and sway Berserker, right?

But his stated reasons were

2. Alter: Too much omgus.
3. Archer: Not enough omgus.

I am not sure that either of those are very good ways to sway someone lol

[Servant Lancer]

Preferred eliminations:
- Beast: reasons for reads have felt awkward esp. his early reasons for not townreading alter ego (back on like page 5 or whatever). early townread on me felt like a buddying attempt as opposed to a townbloc attempt in which the person reaching out would try to get their townread to also townread them
- Moon Cancer: have no idea how they got to the reads they got initially then almost completely flipped them. The detailed explanation for this is a bit convoluted and goes into the realm of main-guessing, but I also think Ruler’s defense of Moon Cancer is partner-indicative/scum-indicative for Moon Cancer.
Bonus third pick - Ruler: either scum, or possibly town hard-defending a scum slot. Either way, a distraction I think we should get rid of.

Would not eliminate:
- Alter: they were a leader of a lot of the early convos, generating good content from other slots. I think scum are going to be really afraid of this slot if he’s town and would highly prefer not to do their job for them. Worth reevaluating if he is left alive for a long time.
I don’t have a ton of townreads but I think my next pick for would-not-eliminate pile is Archer. He expressed doubts and deep thinking about saber’s bid for master that I was feeling myself, but in better words. Also 377 is a post I think often comes from scum about town they feel they can’t push. Which also puts Avenger in my scumpile. Somehow I have way more scumreads than townreads this game which is a bit ???

[Servant Alter Ego]

If he were scum trying to call us both into question, I feel like he would at least be trying to do it in a convincing way to try and sway Berserker, right?

That would depend on him having the rhetorical skill to do so, but he clearly is incapable of formulating even a semi-coherent scumread on anyone.

[Servant Beast]

Am I lying about your analysis being non-unique? You aren't disagreeing, you're just arguing about how that doesn't make you scum instead. I think town tend to have more of an imagination.

I think that's a fucking idiotic heuristic that has no relevance to actually catching scum and you're flinging garbage at me to see if anything will stick. I think the way I think, and if scum is going to accuse me of that being

boring

, I don't give a shit.

I hope you aren't actually town and absolutely livid right now. Though, I don't know why you are mad at this point.

[Servant Archer]

That link to 374 brings me to the front page.

Strange

374

It is his scum case on me. Very detailed, and reads as genuine.

[Servant Beast]

My early reasons for not town reading Alter ego was that they was discussing mechanics and not generating any reads Lancer. This is something he himself agreed with and was even skeptical about why I was arguing that he was trying to get town read if he wasn't being very open with his reads. He argued that his position was one of watching and waiting. That was his initial stance. There's a lot to disagree with, in terms of my reads but I don't really think that the first 5 pages of my opinion of him was one of them. /:

[Servant Beast]

I'm just friendly Lancer. I get accused of buddying occasionally.

[Servant Beast]

Am I lying about your analysis being non-unique? You aren't disagreeing, you're just arguing about how that doesn't make you scum instead. I think town tend to have more of an imagination.

I think that's a fucking idiotic heuristic that has no relevance to actually catching scum and you're flinging garbage at me to see if anything will stick. I think the way I think, and if scum is going to accuse me of that being

boring

, I don't give a shit.

I genuinely can't tell if this is pissed off town or not. There comes a point where I have to ask myself would scum be this sensitive and I'm just not sure. *sigh* this site has really ruined my ability to empathize with people mid-game when it comes to anger and frustration especially.

I think your opinion that I'm trapped scum doesn't make sense. I don't feel trapped and I'm not scum. Why I don't feel trapped is a different question entirely. One best discussed if I ever get run up.
But for now, I do think you're *really* angry or you're *really* faking being angry and if you are angry just take a break.

[Servant Lancer]

You're being clear and calculated. You're not saying who your town reads are nor are you justifying them. You're explaining your mindset to avoid being misconstrued.
I don't think every post you make is designed to help town and that wiggles me. Scum have an incentive to be town read and the earlier the better.
I'm null on you.

This is the post I was referring to

[Servant Shielder]

Anyone who has not done so already should go read Cabds comments from the first game on the preliminary master vote. The short version is decide on a charismatic player to receive it, and let them either lead town or get taken out entirely if scum.

I'm up for this. Of course role needs to be considered to an extent but whoever it is should become the town leader and should be someone who can do that well. This is just a disclaimer for how I intend to read the game in case the plan changed later on.

Lancer is probably town for insisting they don't get the master, but unless we don't have any other good candidates, should not get it. I feel this same thing slightly more strongly with Alter Ego too.

Yes, it's because I know she isn't a player in this game that I would ask that question.
I guess Saber didn't but, it's nice to see they got a little nervous over it. Or maybe it's just good acting.

Why is it nice to see they were nervous about rule breaking?

Its so hard to associate avatars with reads, when everyone looks so similar

I'll admit this is making catching up really hard for me

I have a low townread on Caster

213 from Archery is good and I'm agreeing enough that I'm hesitant to want to give the master to Saber. Nobody is going to miselim someone they TR for underdelivering either.

(on page 10, will continue catching up later)

[Servant Berserker]

Interesting post to laser in on.

[Servant Beast]

My early reasons for not town reading Alter ego was that they was discussing mechanics and not generating any reads Lancer. This is something he himself agreed with and was even skeptical about why I was arguing that he was trying to get town read if he wasn't being very open with his reads. He argued that his position was one of watching and waiting. That was his initial stance. There's a lot to disagree with, in terms of my reads but I don't really think that the first 5 pages of my opinion of him was one of them. /:

You're being clear and calculated. You're not saying who your town reads are nor are you justifying them. You're explaining your mindset to avoid being misconstrued.
I don't think every post you make is designed to help town and that wiggles me. Scum have an incentive to be town read and the earlier the better.
I'm null on you.

This is the post I was referring to

Let me break it down. Since I could see how it could be confusing given how muddled my thinking was when I was trying to express what I meant.

"You're not giving town reads, but you are talking about other stuff and you're not being obtuse about that other stuff" "I don't feel like every post you've made has come from a town motivation"

This is the part that I need to explain a little. I was saying that his emphasis on clarity and being understood in terms of their thought process could generate town reads. Often times in mafia (and really all of the time) we have to guess what someone's intentions are, but they took pains to remedy that by explaining themselves before people asked. What bothered me was that they wouldn't explain themselves when it came to reads, that part was obscured. They did explain why they weren't sharing their opinions in real time, but that but I didn't think their rationale really benefited the town any.

At the time I just thought it was off but I hadn't put together that they had only spoken about mechanics for the most part at the time.

But I'm sort of just not sure what you mean. I think there is a lot of objectionable things I've said, but I remain that saying that someone not giving reads off the cuff and asking why isn't really one of them.

@Beast, I'm a worrier, so it can be comforting when someone else seems to be demonstrably worrying. They denied that they were thinking about me getting banned for bringing up an alt guess. I'm not really sure what they meant by this.

[Servant Beast]

I think there are a lot of objectionable thoughts I've stated, but I don' think that asking why they weren't really giving off the cuff opinions on the game in terms of reads was one of them.
My brain is mush. I'm tired.

[Servant Ruler]

@Ruler can you explain why you’re scumreading Saber independently of your main-guess now? Because you weren’t before

The terrible readslist in 472 for a start. I didn't like 339. The 132/203 combo left a bad taste in my mouth.

However,

Servant Saber

's latest posts have caused a shift in my guess to their identity. There is exactly one player who who make 520/522, and he is someone totally different from my initial guess. I am aware that having an initial guess on his identity that was completely wrong means servants are not going to believe me when I say I know his

actual

identity 100% now, but I can fairly easily prove who he

actually

is now that he has made it unambiguous who he is. (And after he reads this post, he will be able to vouch that I know who he is, confirming it himself.)

He is a player that I should be able to read quite well, and I can see the markers for him potentially being good, but I admit I am still concerned. Knowing his identity, I should be able to read him as clearly pure here. I am reading his posts as if his normal (one very specific) anime avatar were there (although he is not currently using that avatar, it still helps to picture him with it), but it is something of a contrast to see him this game advocate for being an IC compared to his stance in another game featuring a similar conftown-decided-by-votes mechanic. He is both more active here and more interested in being elected rather than electing others.

If he were pure, instead of seeing 'this is a possible town marker', I would be expecting to, upon having learned his identity, be able to read his posts and instantly tell he is good as I am one of the better players on site at reading him. (My posting this will be a dead giveaway to

Servant Saber

of who I am, regrettably, but I have no way of explaining this without outing myself to him.) Instead of him instantly sending off town vibes that I immediately read as pure, there is a bunch of things that may hit some town notes but do not strongly speak to me as being pure of heart.

This said,

Servant Saber

is someone who, if pure of heart, is easy to sort with time. He was not lying about strength in the earlygame and is a frequent early nightkill due to how strongly he threatens the corrupt. Given this, I owe a benefit of the doubt; he is never someone I would eliminate on D1 even if like in this game I struggle to see him as pure.

(This should also answer

Servant Berserker

's 548.)

I believe that the POE of {Alter Ego, Foreigner, Saber} has three scum. That obviously leaves one scum but I am sure we can find that one eventually.

Did you just POE in a game some people barely posted? So fake

POE in a game some servants have barely posted is perfectly doable if you generate enough townreads from the content posted.

Spoiler: Servant Alter Ego response

171 is an easy accusation to throw out as a corrupt individual and not one likely to be indicative of the accused being corrupt. It is in fact a post disproportionately likely to be made by the corrupt specifically because it is such an easy accusation to be made against Servant Assassin.

It being an accusation that is likely to be inaccurate doesn't make it inherently scummy, though, town make bad reads all the time. I can see why people didn't like assassin's read of lancer and foreigner wasn't the only one to push back on it. I don't think that particular post is inherently

towny

per se but in and of itself I don't think it's bad.

Did I say the accusation being inaccurate made it inherently scummy?

I did not.

I said the accusation was

easy

, in a way more likely to come from the corrupt.

I think you're assigning too much credit here for naked anti-consensus reads, if moon was able to back them up with something solid I might be convinced their beliefs were sincerely held but when I questioned them on it their explanations were absolutely horrendous and felt more like they wanted to ensnare me in a cheap "gotcha!". Something doesn't explicitly have to be

advantageous

for scum to do it, and that seems to be the crutch for a lot of your reasoning. The question

should

be whether you see their behavior as genuine, and it is incredibly hard to see any reason why Moon's reads are sincerely held or have real conviction to them given the fact that they don't seem to care to advance them in any meaningful way despite people not agreeing with them.

The metrics "genuine behavior" and "do not give advantage to the corrupt" are not mutually exclusive. In fact they build upon each other and both apply. I do in fact believe their behavior is genuine.

An explanation not being satisfactory to you does not make the explanation come from the corrupt. The behaviors you describe do not make

Servant Moon Cancer

more corrupt; they are evidence they are

not

corrupt.

What is the strong individual thought process, exactly? All their explanations are completely vague and halfhearted, with many saying nothing at all.

I am a servant who also makes vague 'halfhearted' explanations which say nothing. I know this behavior to not come from the corrupt as I myself specialize in it.

By the same token, Foreigner's scumread of the widely townread Caster is similarly anti-consensus, but the strength and conviction with which they are pushing it feels a lot more real.

Servant Caster

is far less an anti-consensus read than you are. Many held at least some reservations if not suspicion on

Servant Caster

. Did you forget all of the servants having engaged in questioning there?

Servant Foreigner

was far from the first. If anything, suspicion on

Servant Caster

was going with the thread consensus present at the time. Thread consensus has

since

shifted to where

Servant Caster

is more widely seen as pure of heart, but at the time

Servant Foreigner

fingered them, that was not the case. I would know as I came in and read it all at the same time.

This is just absurdly convoluted reasoning, it's all cosmic brain thinking that aims for a counterintuitive explanation in avoidance of the simpler one.

Not so. It is simple fact. A corrupt individual is more likely to attempt to justify their shift in stance. This is not theory, this is a basic fact of the game.

Servant Moon Cancer

did not attempt to justify their shift in stance. It is possible that they could be corrupt who decided to not try to justify their shift in stance, in the hopes that it would be seen as "too scummy to be scum" behavior, but

that

is the more convoluted explanation, with the simpler explanation being pure-of-heart not caring.

I'd expect town to at least be self-aware of how they appear to others and be willing to address that

And simple psychology dictates you are wrong. Town players know they are town. They do not need to justify themselves to others. They do not need to put effort into looking town. They know they are town already so they spend less time on this.

Scum know they are not town. They need to justify themselves to others, because they need to put effort into looking town. They know they are not town so they need to spend time pretending to be town.

It does not matter what your skill at the game is. Even a newbie knows this.

They only highlight the differences in your readslist. They do mention which reads they found weaker, but not why they are weaker (or why the other ones are stronger).

Yes, but that is still explaining the differences between their reads and mine, in a way I find strongly indicative of individual thought.

You do not need to explain a read to demonstrate strong individual thought. Just because their explanations were vague and nonspecific does not mean they were nonexistent. I am also a player who gives plenty of vague and nonspecific explanations and I know that trait to not indicate corruption.

My reason to scumread Berserker was not as good as I thought yesterday. Caster looks more and more like a townie stumbling in the dark. Ruler is conditional on Saber and Foreigner being scum, but I believe that the POE of {Alter Ego, Foreigner, Saber} has three scum. That obviously leaves one scum but I am sure we can find that one eventually.

These are all solid explanations of their stances. They are generic and unspecific, but they are still explanations nonetheless.

[Servant Ruler]

I’d appreciate it if everyone’s next post could include two people they prefer and two people off the table when it comes to elimination one. Preferably with detail about each.

Prefer:

Servant Foreigner, Servant Rider

. I should specify that

Servant Rider

is only included because you asked for two servants. In truth it is just

Servant Foreigner

. While there are other slots who may be corrupt, on D1 the only slot I believe to truly be rotten to their core is

Servant Foreigner

.

Off the table:

Servants Moon Cancer, Beast

. Not because they are my strongest pure of heart reads, but because they are the most likely to be falsely accused on D1 when they are pure of heart.

Interesting post to laser in on.

I have a guess for

Servant Shield

's identity and if so their entrance is not alignment indicative.

[Servant Berserker]

Which post do you think I was talking about that shielder referenced? Do you know why it bothered me?

[Servant Ruler]

Halt!

I am a buffoon.

However,

Servant Saber

's latest posts have caused a shift in my guess to their identity. There is exactly one player who who make 520/522, and he is someone totally different from my initial guess. I am aware that having an initial guess on his identity that was completely wrong means servants are not going to believe me when I say I know his

actual

identity 100% now, but I can fairly easily prove who he

actually

is now that he has made it unambiguous who he is. (And after he reads this post, he will be able to vouch that I know who he is, confirming it himself.)

He is a player that I should be able to read quite well, and I can see the markers for him potentially being good, but I admit I am still concerned. Knowing his identity, I should be able to read him as clearly pure here. I am reading his posts as if his normal (one very specific) anime avatar were there (although he is not currently using that avatar, it still helps to picture him with it), but it is something of a contrast to see him this game advocate for being an IC compared to his stance in another game featuring a similar conftown-decided-by-votes mechanic. He is both more active here and more interested in being elected rather than electing others.

If he were pure, instead of seeing 'this is a possible town marker', I would be expecting to, upon having learned his identity, be able to read his posts and instantly tell he is good as I am one of the better players on site at reading him. (My posting this will be a dead giveaway to

Servant Saber

of who I am, regrettably, but I have no way of explaining this without outing myself to him.) Instead of him instantly sending off town vibes that I immediately read as pure, there is a bunch of things that may hit some town notes but do not strongly speak to me as being pure of heart.

This said,

Servant Saber

is someone who, if pure of heart, is easy to sort with time. He was not lying about strength in the earlygame and is a frequent early nightkill due to how strongly he threatens the corrupt. Given this, I owe a benefit of the doubt; he is never someone I would eliminate on D1 even if like in this game I struggle to see him as pure.

Please discard all of this.

I mistakenly thought

Servant Saber

was a he but upon seeing their pronoun is 'they', I have realized how badly wrong I was.

I realize this removes all of my credibility in alt guessing although for what it is worth, the

actual

'he' in this game,

Servant Archer

, may be the player I was describing above and if so that would certainly explain my townread on him. However instead of 100% sure on

Servant Archer

being the individual I described (who has a very specific anime's avatar normally but currently has a different avatar), it is closer to 40%.

If the pronoun of 'they' is accurate, then I believe I may still know who

Servant Saber

is, but they are not the person who I thought they were in 595, nor were they the player I thought they were before then.

I will need more time to look this over, apologies for being a moron.

[Cabd]

Please refrain from making mention of knowledge of (or guessing at), even if possibly in error, players identities in any game related location. The sole exception to this is a private notes PT, if you request one.

This is the first and ONLY warning I will give for trying to narrow down identities using any sort of information, including gender tags. Gender tags are a necessary sacrifice to complete and total anonymous profiles to avoid harm to those who absolutely need them to avoid mental harm.