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[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also the killing patterns throughout the nights suggest scum is content to let town tear each other apart, so if it is not mastina, Gamma is scum with Marci. More likely it is mastina/Gamma I think and mastina is positioning for mlimlo

[marcistar]

has any of them ever tried to pull of a no kill as scum o-o

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh idk, I think no kill is generally good especially in a deepwolf situation, so I'm inclined to see it that way when it seems like we have at least 1 deepwolf rn

[marcistar]

hmm, i did think of the possibility of me being rbed was to deny results, but then i thought scum wouldn't no kill with both me and smoke still alive

is this like mastinas scum game..?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Meh, I'm not sure about mastina tbh. I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

VOTE: Gamma

[Something_Smart]

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD

Why is that?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

As I've said before, reading his iso looks like I'm reading a commentator filling dead air. They've also been opportunistic toward voting me a couple of times this game. To my recollection, they haven't made any of their own pushes and haven't ever been at the center of the game.

Scum are content to let town tear each other apart this game:

S&M vs. Me
Mastina vs. VFP

Scum!VFP could easily kill mastina I think. This game has really been lacking any solving. The more I think about the play and not the bids I think it has to be Gamma

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD

Why is that?

I felt like they wouldn't want to let town get both ADs and Watcher, that's a lot of investigative power. Maybe they tried to get some of it and failed though, or maybe one of them had to buy cop early on, so they couldn't afford to takeaway much more and still have the funds for daykill

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I'll just make this my last post since I won't get on for end of day anyway.

Gamma and Mastina are basically locktown.
I believe SS here and most likely town. Midday watcher was cheap, so I doubt scum went too high here expecting a 500 bid.
Smoke and Mirrors is more or less town, just lost.

That leaves SSBM, who is scum.
Then work out the last one between Marci and imaginality.
I'd favour Marci who was most likely blocked from killing. Marci was less likely to be tracked than SSBM (although plausible to watch)
You can argue that imaginality SSBM/imaginality kill Marci, but with a town watcher in this situation, I doubt that ever happens.

Someone who "knows" Marci's scum game, I'd say it's probably this.

Either listen to me and win, or just do what you have been doing all game and lose.
If I flip town, of course.

No, I will be town’s hero.

I'm down to sheep this if VFP flips town O.o

[Gamma Emerald]

As I've said before, reading his iso looks like I'm reading a commentator filling dead air. They've also been opportunistic toward voting me a couple of times this game. To my recollection, they haven't made any of their own pushes and haven't ever been at the center of the game.

Scum are content to let town tear each other apart this game:

S&M vs. Me
Mastina vs. VFP

Scum!VFP could easily kill mastina I think. This game has really been lacking any solving. The more I think about the play and not the bids I think it has to be Gamma

I voted imaginality in my first post today so I don’t think this is entirely a fair representation

[ssbm_Kyouko]

As I've said before, reading his iso looks like I'm reading a commentator filling dead air. They've also been opportunistic toward voting me a couple of times this game. To my recollection, they haven't made any of their own pushes and haven't ever been at the center of the game.

Scum are content to let town tear each other apart this game:

S&M vs. Me
Mastina vs. VFP

Scum!VFP could easily kill mastina I think. This game has really been lacking any solving. The more I think about the play and not the bids I think it has to be Gamma

I voted imaginality in my first post today so I don’t think this is entirely a fair representation

I dont think you've pushed for Imaginality any more than you've pushed for anyone else in this game. Why are they scum?

[mastina]

btw @Mastina I'm looking at my notes page now and it occurs to me that if scum bought 2-shot AD as I believe they did, then that scum has 350 left, so if you want to outbid that scum you have to bid 350 before they do

I don't have 350.

I started with 500--I bid over 200 for the jailkeep.

That means I have some, undisclosed, amount less than 300.

If I bid 201 I'd have 299; if I bid 215 I would have 285; if I bid 225 I'd have 275; if I bid 250, I'd have 250; if I bid 300, I'd have 200; etc.

I bid some, undisclosed, amount greater than 200 on the jailkeeper, meaning I have less than 300 left.

If scum have 300, I cannot outbid them on anything.

[mastina]

- Ninja doesn't make watcher useless; in fact, knowing who has the ninja makes the ninja useless. If I see someone die and nobody visited them, that's just as much a guilty on VFP as if I saw anyone else visit.

This is taking future knowledge and applying it to past knowledge.

VFP announced on D3 that he bid 500 on the Ninja.

You would not know this when you picked Watcher. (Unless of course you were scum with VFP and VFP let you know he was going to publicly announce intent to pick up that bid.) If VFP did not announce the 500 bid on Ninja, then scum could pick up Ninja and you wouldn't know who held it.

[Something_Smart]

Sure, but that's a justification for why I wasn't afraid to use the role last night with VFP still alive.

Of course on N2 I didn't know that ninja would be coming up the next day, so it's not like I was especially in a rush to use my power before the ninja appeared.

[mastina]

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD and as I wrote it out, only mastina and marci can afford that.

I'll let you in on a secret: the $200 mid-day bid on tracker?

That's me.

I spent less than 301 on the jailkeep yesterday so I have at least 200 available today. I spent more than 200 but less than 301 so have at least 200 left, somewhere in the range of 201-299.

[mastina]

has any of them ever tried to pull of a no kill as scum o-o

Exactly once, with extenuating circumstances; I was the only scum alive, and there was both a tracker in the game and a possible hider that I needed to avoid a guilty for.

I've never no-killed deliberately with 2+ scum alive tho. The closest I've come is submitting a nightkill on a player that I knew that there was a submitted jailkeep on from my scumbuddy. (It was intended to be good scum theater, tho it didn't end up working out, but it was REAL. I didn't holster and let the jailkeep go through, I actually SHOT, and let the jailkeep go through.)

[mastina]

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD and as I wrote it out, only mastina and marci can afford that.

I'll let you in on a secret: the $200 mid-day bid on tracker? That's me.

(You'd think the fact that I've been bidding $200 on items each day would be a dead giveaway that the 200 on tracker was me. Just because I ended up bidding more than 200 on the jailkeeper doesn't mean I'm not going to keep bidding 200 on things.)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh I misread, all of the other midday bids were the same as the final bids and I mistakenly thought JK went for 150

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Mafia players will receive 800Ð.

^


Kyouko just making lies up about me

[imaginality]

OK so I think the mastina scum deliberately no-killing theory doesn't hold up. A bit too risky and I don't think mastina needed to take the risk.

So mastina town.
Ssbm I think is likely town because daykill has been pushed back and now is unavailable to scum, and buying hitman openly D1 needed him for future auctions.
Ssbm not being killed suggests to me scum may have been coin/PR hunting and know ssbm isn't a threat on either front.

If ssbm is town his push towards VFP D1 wasn't scum trying to deflect from Kitty. So VFP scum is more possible.

I think it was easy for marci if scum to town read me to get creds for a town flip, but I don't think it's as likely as marci town.

S&M everyone seems sure is town because of Kitty wagon.

VFP, Something_Smart, Gamma.
I can see how VFP scum would want me around as a future mis elim.

I think if VFP is scum it proves his D2 wagon was town as I think scum bussing D2 is too risky for them, auction wise. Conversely VFP town helps narrow down who's scum. (Per ssbm's count, the E-1 wagon on VFP day 2 had cyrus, distance, S&M, mastina, marcistar)

I think there's at most one scum among {VFP, S&M, mastina, marcistar}. Which leaves at least one among {ssbm, Something_Smart, Gamma}

So VFP isn't scum I think Something_Smart and Gamma are. And if VFP is scum I think one or the other of them is.

[imaginality]

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and

they

can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Isn't the bolded referring to your hypothetical scumbuddy, not you?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Reread the quoted post, and relax lmao

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh I see from pronoun usage it is unclear upon reread. By "they" I mean the third scum. I also dont think that is what happened
What I'm saying is that, even with the info we have, it isn't enough to catch any scum by looking at auction prices directly, as they are able to mix and match their purchases if needed to make the numbers line up.

What I'm saying is we need to look at dayplay and see Gamma has been sidelining the whole game. He's not offering anything original, I dont think he's scumhunting so much as he's just following the flow of others' pushes, and it's pretty easy to see it by just reading his ISO.

I also think that Distancr and Marci as kills point towards a player like Gamma and the only other sideliney player like that is S_S. I think S_S makes sense as a partner to Gamma as well - the game just really points that way. Gamma also shares some of your reads (Imaginality / VFP theory), so you might consider that he's hiding behind you

[imaginality]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald