Newbie 2072: All Guns Blazing!! - Ended

[Val89]

I have no idea how that managed to double post

in the same post

, I can only appologise. The above is only half the length it looks at first glance, it just repeats.

[Val89]

^^Nice, a scum claim

hows voting you a scumclaim from val o-o

It supports the leading reason why I am scum reading him right now -- But I am actively avoiding digging back into scum casing Val for a couple days

I imagined, reading that, that there would be some strong, cohesive argument as to how I am scum that was strong enough he can be bold enough to consider me voting him a straight up scum claim. I don't see how ANYTHING in 214 ties in with that, yet alone a 'leading reason'.

I am also seriously struggling how to tie up someone who says the stuff in 176, with the same player making the case in made in 290. He is supposedly town, he is worried that active scum might take over the thread, but he is going to give someone he reads so strongly as scum as to go 1v1 free reign to do so? None of this is town behavior, folks.

[Umlaut]

I am going to just add 236 to the list of scummy takes coming from Val

I am okay going first, if that means you guys speed elim Val tomorrow, and let nothing short of a hard cop innocent stop that from happening

VOTE: Luke

Please do this sort of thing, it just makes you look even more tunneled than you already do and makes me want to ignore you. Incidentally I am definitely not working from the assumption that you vs. Val can only ever be TvS, so seeing you flip town is not going to convince me of anything.

I would also point out, that he seems completely unworried about the possibility that I am tunneled town, and that my absolute certainty could lead to 2 town miselims back to back Instead, he is settling into just say that I am flailing scum (which, again, Zyla and Pav have seen my scum game - and come on)

And he is so sure I am scum because,

I, uh... think he is scum?.. and...
**checks notes**
took his early posts seriously


That is enough for him to be unphased by the idea of us both going getting elim'ed?

This is actually a sensible point; if I were town!Val in this situation I would definitely prefer to try and get you to back off and do something productive instead of continuing to come back to this.

I mean, look at this wildly unprompted / unnecessary defense of Portia, when Umlaut mentioned having suspicion on Portia, but Umlaut was not even voting him:

Spoiler:

This or Portia look like good wagons to me rn. Neither have given me any reason to think they're town over the course of 8 pages.

I find the offering up of Portia as the second "good wagon" as little strange. Umlaut commented on a huge chunk of the thread in 199, but the only thing I see in reference to Portia are two comments; first that he "like

Portia's intro" and the second that 166 is "way over-the-top reaction from Portia and I don't like it" - something Portia has already acknoldged and appologised for in 166.

There isn't a lot in Portia's iso, but it's enough to just start pinging him as town for me; and that's based on 112, 120, 168-169 and the second part of 196. All of which has gone without comment in Umlaut's 199. It is notable in it's absense.

Umlaut concludes that neither Zyla nor Portia has given him "any reason to think they're town". Can I ask, Umlaut, when you say "I like Portia's intro", do you mean it in a difference sense to 'Portia's intro seems town'?

imo, this was either a partner defense, or a pocket attempt by Val

This on the other hand feels confbiasy, like you decided Portia was a likely Val partner and then went through his ISO looking for evidence and of course found it. But it feels town-confbiasy and further solidifies you as town for me.

I don’t want to eliminate Val or Luke. They keep thread Alice to an e stent I think town suffers regardless of the flip. I want to see where they push off each other. Bet that might just be me.

Why is this something anyone is townreading? (1) "Regardless of the flip" is effectively saying it's better to keep someone alive even if they're scum, which is pretty much never true barring special mechanical circumstances that can't actually occur in this setup anyway. (2) "Keeping the game alive" by having two hyperposters tunnel one another into the ground forever is not actually good for the health of the game anyway.

I will say that if it's between Luke and Val I'm voting Val every time, but something in his recent posts (notably 248) makes me feel it might be a good idea to keep trying to look elsewhere.

[Val89]

From the rest of your post, I take it your stance is less "Neither have given me any reason to think they're town over the course of 8 pages." and more 'I thought Portia's introduction seemed town but I decided that didn't mean much and think he is now worth wagoning after seeing his 166?'.

Since you are here, Umlaut, would you mind answering this? I'm trying to get a handle on what your stance of Portia actually is, given that your assertion they've given you nothing to think they are town seems to conflict with your first line of 212

[Lukewarm]

I will once again say, that Val has completely ignored the part that moved it from a scum lean to a scum read: He is very, very clearly, not genuinely trying to sort me at this point:

The thing, the one thing, that I have repeatedly said that he never engaged with, was this section of 107 / 102 :

Spoiler:

I find it difficult to believe that the argument he made in post 99 was genuine.

Val has made is clear that they are not currently scum reading Not_Mafia,

which would mean that his theory is as follows:

• **Scum!me saw Val make post 25 where he voted for Not_Mafia, who is not my partner -- and in response, I voted Val (for some reason)
  
  **Then, Val accused me of being scum partners with Not_Mafia AND he says that we should elim Not_Mafia first -- and in response, I became defensive and needed to "lay the narrative that he was scum early" (for some reason)

Instead of, I don't know, being overjoyed? Like, that is the dream scenario for Scum!Me. --- I get linked to a town player, we flip that town player, which subconsciously makes people inclined to believe I am town, and overtly, the argument that "I was defending my partner Not_Mafia" instantly goes away. So why would I ever start pushing him there, instead of just planning to blame him for a Not_Mafia elim tomorrow?

He stated that he was leaning my action to be more likely to be scum, and the stated reasons were nonsensical.
I pointed that out, and he never revisited that read on me. ---- He was not genuinely trying to read me.

I made it clear that that was the issue at hand in: 102, 104, 107, 108, 130, 214, 216, 221, 230

And despite me repeatedly saying that that is my biggest issue, and repeatedly asking him to address it. He didn't in 299, where it feels like he instead focused on the parts of the case that he felt he could defend against.

I mean, he is supposedly trying to read me, and I repeatedly asked him about that read / pointed out the inconsistencies, and instead of talking about it, or adjusting his read, he settled into just "Luke is obviously scum here" angle. This is not the posting of someone who is genuinely trying to sort me ::

Hope your scumbuddy isn't giving you too much crap in the PT right now

while you are doing a grand old job of basically bussing yourself here.

I'm not sure why any mafia thinks they can...

Give over, there is zero chance are TvT. You've basically claimed scum at this point,

And again, so far his stated reasons for scum reading me are:
~those points that I found logically inconsistent, which he has still never tried to touch back on
~the fact that I am pushing him

To respond to 301 --- that was where it became overtly clear that he was not, and had no intent on, engaging with the inconsistencies of his scum read on me

Post 2/3 for 7/9/21

[Val89]

"Keeping the game alive" by having two hyperposters tunnel one another into the ground forever is not actually good for the health of the game anyway.

Speaking of hyper posters, I've noticed that despite making a big song and dance about how they are restricting their posting, Lukewarm has over double the post count of the next active poster - myself - and I dont feel like they have delivered double actual content.

It's also interesting to note that scum!Luke is a more prolific poster than town!Luke has been, at least in the newbie games I've looked at:scum!Luke made 200 posts before elimination by D2; and we are at 105 here not even halfway through D1. Town!luke has much lower numbers: 145, 119(although he replaces in on pg22) and

149

.

I'm not saying it's 100% alignment indicative, but it just another ping in a growing list.

[marcistar]

But the thing that really made it stand out was that

that was the ONLY think that Val felt like responding to in all of Umlaut's catch up posts

tbh i dont blame him, it was alot to read thru

I haven't seen a confirmed scum!Val yet, but I'm getting a really different vibe than 2068. It could in part be that Val didn't get as much serious heat in 2068.

is there certain posts that feel this way for you..? or just all of them?

I don't want to vote because that would bring Val to E-2 aka "NM E-1" and I don't want to go there when there is so much of the day left.

i like how ur still trying to work around him, but dont worry too much about him im pretty sure he was truthful in the "not quick hammering in newbies" thing

290 seems like a real, not forced, apology.

A Val flip would give information for sorting Portia, Umlaut, and Marci in my opinion. Not so much info on Luke. A Luke flip, while I’m opposed to it, would admittedly give a ton of information on almost everyone.

can u explain what sort of info u would gain?

I don’t want to eliminate Val or Luke. They keep thread Alice to an e stent I think town suffers regardless of the flip. I want to see where they push off each other. Bet that might just be me.

Why is this something anyone is townreading? (1) "Regardless of the flip" is effectively saying it's better to keep someone alive even if they're scum, which is pretty much never true barring special mechanical circumstances that can't actually occur in this setup anyway. (2) "Keeping the game alive" by having two hyperposters tunnel one another into the ground forever is not actually good for the health of the game anyway.

i didn't really townread this post from portia, but i did see it as something that might be reasonable when i originally read it.

[Umlaut]

From the rest of your post, I take it your stance is less "Neither have given me any reason to think they're town over the course of 8 pages." and more 'I thought Portia's introduction seemed town but I decided that didn't mean much and think he is now worth wagoning after seeing his 166?'.

Since you are here, Umlaut, would you mind answering this? I'm trying to get a handle on what your stance of Portia actually is, given that your assertion they've given you nothing to think they are town seems to conflict with your first line of 212

I didn't answer it because it's not a question. Yes you understood correctly, Portia's intro was some minimal reason to think he's town that doesn't matter very much.

[Val89]

The thing, the one thing, that I have repeatedly said that he never engaged with, was this section of 107 / 102 :

And I've said, repeatedly, that I am not sure how you expect me to engage with it when it is clearly non-sensesial, because it's based on a false premise. I pointed that out and you simply went and susbtituted the words, but retained the same false premise - that the whole argument is predicated on the fact that either: a) I seriously accussed you of being scum partners with Not_Mafia, or b) I wasn't seriously accusing you, but scum!you would be happy to be falsly accused because it gives you town cred -

implying of course that I WAS seriously accusing you

. It makes zero sense.

In the end, the decision players have to weigh up is this - Is it more likley that the Lukewarm who plays these sort of town games, and has built up a reputation as a good town player they think they can cash in on, has seriously decided that I rolled scum, came into the thread, and made it as fucking obvious as I can that I was scum by doing these things with a straight face:

*Claiming that we should already plan on Not_Mafia being the Day 1 elim
*Accusing me of defending Not_Mafia
*And who actually thinks that another player should have done a full meta dive before casting a vote on page 2?

You what? What sort of mafia player tries to make push a meta read on someone without having first actually read the ISO.

^^These are the reasons I am currently suspicious of Val^^

or is it more likely that we are seeing play closer to the scum!Luke D1 of this game - make an early case on an townie on very little (starting as early as post 73 in that case), then 'townlead' and ride that case all the way to the D1 mislim on force of personality? I think the answer is self-evident.

[Umlaut]

Strong TR on Lukewarm still.
Some degree of TR on all of {marcistar, alstroemerial, Pavowski}.

Gives me an elim pool of {Val98, Not_Mafia, Zyla, Portia}.

NM has done fuck-all but I kind of expect that from him. Would not object to an elim there but in my experience we either do it or don't, trying to use votes to pressure him is useless.

[alstroemerial]

Working on another post but coming in quick to say that I'm opposed to an NM elim at this point because it really wouldn't give us much information. My read is null because, as Umlaut says, he hasn't done much, but anyone else in Umlaut's pool would tell us more.

[alstroemerial]

I haven't seen a confirmed scum!Val yet, but I'm getting a really different vibe than 2068. It could in part be that Val didn't get as much serious heat in 2068.

is there certain posts that feel this way for you..? or just all of them?

A little across the board but a few examples would be comparing 99, 115, and 217 to things like the following post #s in 2068: 72, 92, 161, and 202. I picked highlights from earlier in the 2068 ISO because that was when the Val vs James cross-tunnel was going on (should mention that, as Val said in this game, that was TvT). There just seems to be more general responses but focus on the tunnel in this game as opposed to pinpoint responses as part of a larger scumhunting in 2068. This could be more because in 2068, Val was more the aggressor while he's more the defender in this game.

A Val flip would give information for sorting Portia, Umlaut, and Marci in my opinion. Not so much info on Luke. A Luke flip, while I’m opposed to it, would admittedly give a ton of information on almost everyone.

can u explain what sort of info u would gain?

I think Val being town makes you and Portia a little more likely to be town and Umlaut a little more likely to be scum. I agree Val being scum makes Portia worth a look. As for Luke, if I'm right then I think it makes {Val, Portia} more feasible and if I'm wrong then maybe makes Pav worth digging at, and admittedly makes me look questionable as well.

[Val89]

This is actually a sensible point; if I were town!Val in this situation I would definitely prefer to try and get you to back off and do something productive instead of continuing to come back to this.

I disagree. I think in combination, the evidence is pretty strong to point to the fact that Lukewarm will flip scum if we flipped him today; lets' call it 95% sure. I know you've obviously come to another conclusion, that if I am not scum, that Luke is just a tunnelled townie, and if the 'sensible point' is why I don't seem concerned about the risk of being mislimmed D2 in the unlikley 5% case Luke did flip town if he were the choice today, then I can only say that I am confident that this playerlist would find reason to find me town anyway, in spite of a green Luke flip, if we were to need to have that discussion on D2 (which I really don't see happening!)

[Umlaut]

It's not surprising you disagree with an argument that town!you would do something different from what you are doing...

[Val89]

I think Val being town makes ... Umlaut a little more likely to be scum.

This is interesting. I saw you put Umlaut in the pool of people a Val flip would give info on earlier, and I wondered if you had seen the same thing I had.

Can you explain why you think this, but beleive Lukes' alignment won't be any clearer after the flip?

[Lukewarm]

And I've said, repeatedly, that I am not sure how you expect me to engage with it when it is clearly non-sensesial, because it's based on a false premise.

My point was that your scum lean (at the time) as stated, does not make sense.

My expectation was that you would then explain your scum lean in a way that made sense (or adjust your read) --- You never did.

So far, the only reasons I have seen you give for you scum read on me, were that paragraph in 99 (which is the one that does not make sense). And then the fact that I am pushing you -- and that was enough for you to have me lock scum in your eyes? I don't buy that.

--------------

You are not trying to bring in some meta (but you had me locked scum before any meta was introduced -- see 288.

To address that meta:

Spoiler: You said that hyper posting is only in my scum game

(305)

Yes, I am posting a lot (I am actually trying to reign it in with my arbitrary posting limit). But it is silly to say that I don't do that as town:

• ---Newbie 2065 (with Zyla and Pav) I was a mason. I had 145 posts in the main thread and 48 posts in the mason chat.
  Giving me a
  grand total of 203 posts
  .
  Second place was The Bulge,
  with 60 posts
  (I was similarly confident in my scum reads that game)

Spoiler: You claimed that my push on you was "self evidently" more similar to my scum play

is it more likely that we are seeing play closer to the scum!Luke D1 of this game - make an early case on an townie on very little (starting as early as post 73 in that case), then 'townlead' and ride that case all the way to the D1 mislim on force of personality? I think the answer is self-evident.

This one is just silly. My push on you this game has zero resemblance to my "push" on Strangematter that game, where I actively tried to distance myself from the elim, because I did not want it pinned on me

Me in the Mafia chat talking about how I did not want the day 1 miselim tied to me:

Okay - this is what I settled on. Backing off of Strange. Showing self doubt / doubt in my reads is a decent look for town / plus now it would make more sense for me to take a bit more of a back seat in the next push.

Me backing off of the push in the Main thread:

....

UNVOTE:

If this is strange's response to being put at e-1, it just doesn't feel like they have a partner?

Like I think that any one in this lobby as Strange's partner would have helped them come up with an angle to push

Maybe everyone I thought was scum before is actually town :/

If anything, this is much closer to the sheer confidence I had in my town game with Zyla, where I hard accused T3 of being scum on Page 2 of the thread, and then pushed him until he flipped (he was scum btw)

Post 3/3 for 7/9/21

With that, I am tapped out! See you guys tomorrow

[Pavowski]

Strong TR on Lukewarm still.
Some degree of TR on all of {marcistar, alstroemerial, Pavowski}.

Gives me an elim pool of {Val98, Not_Mafia, Zyla, Portia}.

NM has done fuck-all but I kind of expect that from him. Would not object to an elim there but in my experience we either do it or don't, trying to use votes to pressure him is useless.

I'm glad you brought NM up again because I was just wondering about him. On the one hand I want to say if the slot isn't gonna be participating in a meaningful manner, it's worth a policy elim. If nothing else it'd get us to d2 and give us a NK to work with rather than continuing to ride this Luke/Val merry-go-round, and who knows, he could be scum for all anybody knows.

On the other hand I think we learn a lot more from some of the other potential flips.

[Umlaut]

NM would make a good cop target assuming we have one.

[Umlaut]

Going back a bit:

^^^
*puts vote away
*asks other person y no vote

There’s something about the implicit contradiction in that post that just rings town to me.

This is actually a pretty towny read and makes me feel a bit better about Portia, it's pretty rare for scum to catch town in a contradiction and use that not as an excuse to push them but as a basis for a townread instead.

[alstroemerial]

I think Val being town makes ... Umlaut a little more likely to be scum.

This is interesting. I saw you put Umlaut in the pool of people a Val flip would give info on earlier, and I wondered if you had seen the same thing I had.

Can you explain why you think this, but beleive Lukes' alignment won't be any clearer after the flip?

Don't have time to type this now but I should be able to before the evening in US Eastern time. For now, I might be overthinking but the way this has played out today (real-life Friday, not game day) is starting to make me think this is more likely to be TvT than originally. I still think either one being confirmed town would give helpful info but not worth walking into what I'm starting to change my mind into thinking is a miselim. For now VOTE: Portia for reasons I've outlined earlier as being someone else I'd be ok with.

pedit: I see I'm about to contradict Umlaut /shrug I still don't think 120 is that towny and not enough to outweigh everything else

[Umlaut]

Luke and Val - SvT
Honestly, this is just a total mess. I was trying to read opposite of what my gut was telling me, but Luke was making a lot of sense, and I was agreeing with him and thinking he was town. Then comes 239. I... have no words tbh, I don't know how this could ever be a good move in this situation. And then he starts begging for votes on Val, and honestly becomes the most confusing 1v1 I've read so far. I do find it hard to believe that they're both town, and even harder that they're both scum, at this point, but I don't think it's clear at this point who's who.

Why can't this be TvT? I understand why Luke and Val both insist it can't be, because they both (either genuinely or artificially) just

know with such certainty

that the other one is scum and so it seems obvious from internally that they are in a battle of Good Versus Evil. But I don't see it as nearly so certain from an outside perspective and I'm not sure why you do. What precludes them just being two terrifically tunneled townsfolk?

[Val89]

My point was that your scum lean (at the time) as stated, does not make sense.

Except it does makes. You state it doesn't make sense, then try and handwave the reason it doesn't make sense with an argument based on false premise, and keep trying to repeat the same argument that still doesn't make sense with different words. We've done this dance.

But fine, if it takes me spelling it out in minute detail for the benifit of those who just see words repeated over and over again and assume it must be a valid argument, then I guess I will have to.

Val has made is clear that they are not currently scum reading Not_Mafia, ...

Correct. Point A.

... which would mean that his theory is as follows:

**Scum!me saw Val make post 25 where he voted for Not_Mafia, who is not my partner -- and in response, I voted Val (for some reason).

Correct. Point B.

**Then, Val accused me of being scum partners with Not_Mafia AND he says that we should elim Not_Mafia first

Incorrect. Contradicts obviously with A. I can't be seriously accusing you of being scum partners with someone I'm not scum reading.

Don't forget, this is the SECOND attempt at pushing this non-argument, the first time Point A read "For starters, he has now backed off of the Not_Mafia scum read", and it's simply been sustituted for words that mean the same thing as far as the logic goes. Luke is trying to sell you the story that I am scum because I didn't - for the SECOND time - spend the time and energy pointing out in detail why Not scumreading one player means I can't be scumreading two players with that player in the pair as scumpartners when I had already done so once.

See, the thing is for me, that I don't buy that a town!Luke is stupid enough to actually think that I was saying he and NM were scumpartners if I don't think NM is scum. That's why I think it has be coming from scum. Pick something, even if it makes zero sense, dress it up to look like a semi-wall post, and post it, and repeat it over and over as if it is daming until people's eye glaze over and just accept it must be something. If the target of it points out it amounts to nothing, just change some of the words and repost. If the target doesn't reengage and keep repeatedly point out why it's obvious crap, call him scummy - and if he does engage with you pointing out why it's crap repeatedly, well you've succeded in spamming up the thread with crap. Town!Luke is a better player than this, and it has to be coming from scum.

[Val89]

^^Nice, a scum claim

hows voting you a scumclaim from val o-o

It supports the leading reason why I am scum reading him right now -- But I am actively avoiding digging back into scum casing Val for a couple days

Since something made you change your mind and come back to it 3 hours later with a massive wallpost; do you think you might want to explain this? Seems weird you would go to all the effort of writing something as detailed, but ultimately devoid of content, as 214 without answering the simple question Marci asked; particulary if you truely beleive I had "scum claimed".

[Zyla]

Luke and Val - SvT
Honestly, this is just a total mess. I was trying to read opposite of what my gut was telling me, but Luke was making a lot of sense, and I was agreeing with him and thinking he was town. Then comes 239. I... have no words tbh, I don't know how this could ever be a good move in this situation. And then he starts begging for votes on Val, and honestly becomes the most confusing 1v1 I've read so far. I do find it hard to believe that they're both town, and even harder that they're both scum, at this point, but I don't think it's clear at this point who's who.

Why can't this be TvT? I understand why Luke and Val both insist it can't be, because they both (either genuinely or artificially) just

know with such certainty

that the other one is scum and so it seems obvious from internally that they are in a battle of Good Versus Evil. But I don't see it as nearly so certain from an outside perspective and I'm not sure why you do. What precludes them just being two terrifically tunneled townsfolk?

It's not that it

can't

be, it's that I feel that's it's a good bit greater than random a chance that there's it's SvT. At this point I'm still unsure of which one is more likely than the other though, which is why it's a combined read of SvT rather than individual reads of scummy or towny

With that, I am tapped out! See you guys tomorrow

I'm.. not really liking the self imposed post limits here. Like don't post more than you want to, but not posting because of an arbitrary limit you set?

[Lukewarm]

I'm.. not really liking the self imposed post limits here. Like don't post more than you want to, but not posting because of an arbitrary limit you set?

It is mostly lack of impulse control tbh -- and with this post, Zyla has bought herself 1 extra post from me today

(Also, Val has finally responded to the thing I have been trying to get him to respond to for the longest time, but shhhhh)

---------------

Val "appears" to misunderstand what I am talking about in regards to post 99 -- as evident from post 321 His counter, is that "I can't be seriously accusing you of being scum partners with someone I'm not scum reading" -- which missed my entire point... I am not arguing that he was.

In post 99 HE said, that scum!me thought as much (I have added page breaks to the following quote to make it easier to read)

my initial thoughts are that it leans scummy.

The first post that Lukewarm indicates they had a perspective switch from "Val isn't serious" to "I should take Val at face value" is post 33, where I imply that I think Lukewarm might be Not_mafia's scum buddy.

That to me says Lukewarm is over-the-top sensitive to any suggestion early game they might be scum.
{snip}
then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early.

He said that he thought my actions might be scummy because:
1) I was taking his posts seriously
2) I was overly sensitive to being shaded
3) Was reacting to the suggestion that the scum team was me+Not_Mafia
4) Felt like I needed to start pushing a scum case against him to counter act that suggestion.

My entire point was, and is, that the scum motivation behind this take is nonsense. If I am scum, why would I ever need to start discrediting him there? Quite simply, there is no reason to.

If anything, scum!me would have wanted him to continue pushing that narrative, hopefully let him lead a miselim on Not_Mafia, and then blame him for it. (or alternatively, if I ever died and flipped scum, then this narrative might flip Not_Mafia the next day)
[[AGAIN, I am not claiming that Val would have done this. I am saying that Val's scum case on me, would indicate that this was where I was at at the time]]

My question to Val is, and has been:
Why would you expect scum!luke to behave the way you outlined in post 99? Why would I need to discredit you there? Why would I continue on that push once you explicitly said that "Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm," ?

He has still failed to engage with that, or reconcile his scum read on me.

Post

4

/3 for 7/9/21