Newbie 2072: All Guns Blazing!! - Ended

[Lukewarm]

Alstro is generally townie, but his shift to Portia seemed odd, because from what I can see in his iso, that read was pretty dependent on Val's flip - so he is just a little lower because I am unsure why he when there.

I haven't really liked Portia as early as 231 due to just generally being vague/unhelpful.

I see. This is what made it seem weird to see you move from Val -> Portia

I think Val being town makes you and Portia a little more likely to be town

If you started thinking Val might be town, that seemed to imply that you might think Poria started to seem more town as well.

If you still think that Val is scum, then I am surprised you moved away.

Left me with confusion

[alstroemerial]

Oh, I see, that's fair. Yeahhh that's true, if it is TvT then Portia's behavior makes less sense as scum. But I guess I just TR too many people and it's like, I want to put my vote somewhere and do something besides pick apart the Val v Luke stuff, and I'd like Portia to contribute more, so it seems like a fine place to put my vote for now.

[Val89]

Portia is a townlean for me. He's been playing whilst intoxicated and it shows, but I've seen nothing that pings me as scummy in that ISO.

Trust me; when I saw 166, I was hoping it was coming from scum; but when I revisited it at a result of Umluats postings, and having got over that "wtf??" moment, I can see why he was annoyed and find no reason for scum reading him for it. The read he gives was total shit (as far as the justification goes - I've eventually come to agree with the conclusion) but it is a read none-the-less; and I can understand why Luke saying "You given zero reads" might have annoyed him somewhat. Nowhere near to justify the reaction, but it didn't come out of thin air.

[Lukewarm]

Hey, maybe we will get a read list out of Val anyways -- just one read at a time

[Lukewarm]

Hey, maybe we will get a read list out of Val anyways -- just one read at a time

This is not supposed to be a sarcastic jab at you, but a light hearted joke btw

[Lukewarm]

So far, I have found him to have

Portia and Pav as town

Zyla and Marci and Alstro Null <-and I am assuming Not_Mafia, as well, although I did not see it explicitly stated

Me and Umlaut as scummy

[Lukewarm]

I just read Val's day 1 iso from his completed game, and (inb4 confirmation bias accusations), but I feel like there are very clear differences.

~First of all, just reading the progression of his scum read on JamesTheNames compared to the progression of his scum read on me, the scum read in that game just looks way more genuine.

~I also thought there is a clear difference in his tone wrt his scum read on James - Specifically, compared to the tone he has taken in posts such as 236, 244, 288 --- both in the sheer certainty, as well as the almost taunting tone

~I also noticed that Val was actively trying to keep the thread updated with his read on every single slot in the game. Starting with a full read list, as early as his 11th post in his ISO, which he then touched back on, and updated through out the day, noting people who had changed and then dropping another full read list a bit later on -- which, by comparison, makes this stand out more to me, coming as his 61st post this game

@Val, can you provide a full reads list?

No. And if you or anyone else doesn't like that; vote me for it.

There is scum on open display, and 200-odd posts to sort it.

I mean, feel free to ignore any and all evidence that I present, because everyone assumes I am just "so tunneled" - but, still thought I would share the things that stood out to me :/

[ArcAngel9]

Vote Count 1-6

Portia :

alstroemerial

Pavowski :

alstroemerial :

Zyla :

marcistar,Umlaut, Pavowski (E-2)

Lukewarm :

Val89,

Val89 :

Portia, Lukewarm,

Not_Mafia :

,

Umlaut :

Not_Mafia,

marcistar :

Not Voting

: Zyla

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: July 16, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-07-16 12:50:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Val89]

~First of all, just reading the progression of his scum read on JamesTheNames compared to the progression of his scum read on me, the scum read in that game just looks way more genuine.

Remind me again (briefly!) why you think my read in this game isn't genuine, again? I've seen wallpost after wallpost, and I'm

still

not sure what is causing you to think that.

I mean, feel free to ignore any and all evidence that I present, because everyone assumes I am just "so tunneled" - but, still thought I would share the things that stood out to me :/

I think it's very amusing that you criticize me for my 341, and then literally, in the same breath, express the same sentiment that drove me to post that...

[Val89]

Hey, maybe we will get a read list out of Val anyways -- just one read at a time

So far, I have found him to have

Portia and Pav as town

Zyla and Marci and Alstro Null <-and I am assuming Not_Mafia, as well, although I did not see it explicitly stated

Me and Umlaut as scummy

Or perhaps, since as you identified, I have given a read on all the slots, I just want people to actually go back and actually read my ISO; and while they are in there, maybe they would find something worthwhile to discuss they missed the first time.

Maybe, instead of a lighthearted joke, you know that's why I want people looking through my ISO for my reads, and you don't want people doing so in case they start reading the argument against you more closely, which is why you are trying to spoonfeed them here.

[Val89]

So far, I have found him to have

Portia and Pav as town

Zyla and Marci and Alstro Null <-and I am assuming Not_Mafia, as well, although I did not see it explicitly stated

Me and Umlaut as scummy

Since they are out there though, that list comes from my post 219; if you want to go read it.

I'm not seeing what others are seeing regarding Zyla, and they are still null for me currently, as are you, Marci. People say you are pinging town, but maybe it's something you have to played with you previously to pick up on. Not_mafia also remains null for obvious reasons.

You picked out the Zyla and Marci reads as null; but didn't see Not_Mafia explicitly stated?

Since then, my Marci read has been edging a little more on the town side.

I've literally no idea what Zyla has done to deserve sitting at E-2 though. Two to the votes seem to be 'Zyla's coasting', and I've already explained why I think that could be fairly applied to a lot of players in this game. Umluat justified his vote in his 199 by saying "140 -- another tell here: explicitly saying "I'm unvoting because it's not RVS" as if RVS were a formalized game phase is something that more often comes from scum"; noting first that I'm not sure why he describes it as "another tell" given I can't see anything being described as a tell; I've also no idea what the issue is - scum more often treat the Random Voting

Stage

as a phase of the game?? I imagine there are plenty of players who think that; me among them. Luke linked an article explaining the theory on it earlier.

[Pavowski]

In post 346, Pavowski wrote:
I am currently of the opinion that you and Luke are both town. Maybe not the most towniest, but town. If that's on the fence, I guess I can't argue with you, but I am not resigned to voting strictly between the two of you yet.

pavowski, i dont really see you explain this anywhere (i might be missing it tho), but what made you think tvt? also whos the coasting-scum then?

I've gone back and forth on it but I come around like this: the way this thing has (d)evolved, it virtually guarantees that if we eliminate one, and they flip town, the first place we will look the next day is at the survivor. I don't think scum is going to lean *that* hard into a miselim on d1. I guess by that rationale it's *possible* it's SvS, as if the other flips scum, then that gets the other a pretty solid town-read, but I am, how shall I say, exceedingly skeptical of that possibility.

I think in short both players are making a case they honestly believe to be true about the other.

As I mentioned a few posts ago, I think Zyla is coasting, as I don't see a lot of substance out of her posts and not a lot of evidence of hunting or analysis of the game. I think she's a prime candidate for scum, but she's also stated she has some RL stuff going on, and, well, that's a mitigating factor I have to contend with.

Where the last scum could be hiding, I haven't theorized a whole lot yet. Obviously if my assumptions are correct it's in one of the remaining 5 (Portia, Marci, Umlaut, NM, Alstro). Of those, I have town pings on Umlaut and Alstro, nullish reads on Marci and Portia, and NM is a friggin' black box.

[Pavowski]

I've literally no idea what Zyla has done to deserve sitting at E-2 though. Two to the votes seem to be 'Zyla's coasting', and I've already explained why I think that could be fairly applied to a lot of players in this game.

That's a fair point. But of players who might qualify as "coasters" I get less towny pings from Zyla.

[Val89]

I think in short both players are making a case they honestly believe to be true about the other.

Early on, I entertained that possibilty. There have been times in this exchange I've started to think there is a chance he is just widely wrong town and he so deep into a tunnel he is spaffing out stuff that makes zero sense to the rest of us because he wants to beleive it so much.

Hell, I was guilty myself of it D1 in 2068. But I tell you what - even though I beleived so strongly that James was scum on D1 in that game, never,

not once

, did I ever feel to need to do, or even consider doing what Luke did in 324 in order to make my case.

There is just no world in which even the most deeply tunneled townie makes a concious decision to quote a post of mine and snip out the part that answers the question he then poses after quoting it. Make no mistake - it was a concious decision. The answer was in the same paragraph as what was quoted; you have to read it in order to select it, in order to remove it from the quote.

It doesn't matter how deeply tunneled a townie is, how convinced they are of their own argument, they don't have to resort to dirty tricks like that to make a case. I imagine even

scum

have a moments pause before doing that, wondering if they will get away with it or if they are just making it too obvious they are scum. He must have known I was going to point out what he had done, and he has to decided that the risk was worth the reward, that even when I did point it out, town were going to be paying so little attention to our exchange it didn't even matter.

It frustrates me beyond belief that he has been proven to be right.

I'll say it again: Read the second to last paragraph of post 99. Read the part of Lukes 324 in which he quotes from that paragraph and look what he has ommitted. Read the question he asks after, and then come back and tell me Luke honestly beleives the case he is making.

[Lukewarm]

what Luke did in 324 in order to make my case.

There is just no world in which even the most deeply tunneled townie makes a concious decision to quote a post of mine and snip out the part that answers the question he then poses after quoting it. Make no mistake - it was a concious decision. The answer was in the same paragraph as what was quoted; you have to read it in order to select it, in order to remove it from the quote.

This is silly. My entire point was that his stated reasoning made no sense. NOT that he did not state a reason to begin with.

In 324, I set up the situation that he presented, then explained that in that situation, I would have no reason to need to discredit him.

My entire point was, and is, that the scum motivation behind this take is nonsense

So I walked though the scenario he presented, explained why there is no reason for scum!me, or scum!anyone, to be worried, and if anything, I would have wanted him to continue pushing that narrative.

Val is acting like my point was to say "Gotcha! You forgot to list a reason" -- When my point was, "In this scenario, scum!me would have acted the opposite of what you are saying, and here is why"

Val is now falling back to "well, in post 99, scum!Luke was scared that, if he did not start discrediting me, that one member of the scum team might be eliminated day 1"

I still do not think that Val has provided any new logic or explanation for WHY scum!me would be worried about that, when Val suggested that the scum team was Luke+NotMafia -- and then stated that we should flip NotMafia first

[Val89]

And of course you immeadatly pop up to spam the thread with some more obvious bullshit.

That to me says Lukewarm is over-the-top sensitive to any suggestion early game they might be scum. If it is obviously RVS, fine, but if there is any doubt it might be the start of a serious scumread, or might lead to one, then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early. I can better see why scum would react in such a manner than I can town - while a townie isn't all that worried about about a single player throwing some shade at them on page 2, if that shade causes attention to fall on an actual scum, even if it was accidental on the part of the person throwing it, then that could potentially lead to the scum team going into N1 having lost half their faction - potentially game losing for them.

Are you seriously trying to sit there with a straight face and say "I still do not think that Val has provided any new logic or explanation for WHY scum!me would be worried about that, when Val suggested that the scum team was Luke+NotMafia -- and then stated that we should flip NotMafia first"??

[Lukewarm]

Remind me again (briefly!) why you think my read in this game isn't genuine, again?

Because you've refused to engage with any information that might lead you to change your read ; or at the very least, reconsider the logic behind it, and see if there was in fact new logic that could continue to support that read.

Val is acting like my point was to say "Gotcha! You forgot to list a reason" -- When my point was, "In this scenario, scum!me would have acted the opposite of what you are saying, and here is why"

^^ This is where it does not feel genuine. When I am talking about your read on me, every time, you responded (even early on) only in ways to defend yourself and/or to discredit me, instead of engaging with the information and determining if your read really did make sense or not.

This is where it looked like, your goal in this game is to survive, and your goal is not to actually sort me

[Lukewarm]

And of course you immeadatly pop up to spam the thread with some more obvious bullshit.

I logged on, and made 1 post, and you are already at this?

[Val89]

I am engaging with the information! You are telling me that Scum!you would have been overjoyed to have been paired with your scum buddy D1, even if it was accidental????

Here is the reason scum!you might have acted the way you did.

If it is obviously RVS, fine, but if there is any doubt it might be the start of a serious scumread, or might lead to one, then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early. I can better see why scum would react in such a manner than I can town - while a townie isn't all that worried about about a single player throwing some shade at them on page 2, if that shade causes attention to fall on an actual scum, even if it was accidental on the part of the person throwing it, then that could potentially lead to the scum team going into N1 having lost half their faction - potentially game losing for them.

Here, let me state again in case you missed it.

If it is obviously RVS, fine, but if there is any doubt it might be the start of a serious scumread, or might lead to one, then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early. I can better see why scum would react in such a manner than I can town - while a townie isn't all that worried about about a single player throwing some shade at them on page 2, if that shade causes attention to fall on an actual scum, even if it was accidental on the part of the person throwing it, then that could potentially lead to the scum team going into N1 having lost half their faction - potentially game losing for them

.

[Pavowski]

I'll say it again: Read the second to last paragraph of post 99. Read the part of Lukes 324 in which he quotes from that paragraph and look what he has ommitted. Read the question he asks after, and then come back and tell me Luke honestly beleives the case he is making.

Okay, fine. My morning has been slow, I'll do the homework.

Here's the paragraph in question:

The concenus may well be that it makes Lukewarm townleaning, or that it's NAI, but I'll open up by saying my initial thoughts are that it leans scummy. The first post that Lukewarm indicates they had a perspective switch from "Val isn't serious" to "I should take Val at face value" is post 33, where I imply that I think Lukewarm might be Not_mafia's scum buddy.

That to me says Lukewarm is over-the-top sensitive to any suggestion early game they might be scum.

If it is obviously RVS, fine, but if there is any doubt it might be the start of a serious scumread, or might lead to one

, then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early.

I can better see why scum would react in such a manner than I can town - while a townie isn't all that worried about about a single player throwing some shade at them on page 2, if that shade causes attention to fall on an actual scum, even if it was accidental on the part of the person throwing it, then that could potentially lead to the scum team going into N1 having lost half their faction - potentially game losing for them.

The highlighted text is what Luke quoted, the bolded is the part Luke snipped out in 99:

In post 99, Val89 wrote:
my initial thoughts are that it leans scummy.

The first post that Lukewarm indicates they had a perspective switch from "Val isn't serious" to "I should take Val at face value" is post 33, where I imply that I think Lukewarm might be Not_mafia's scum buddy.

That to me says Lukewarm is over-the-top sensitive to any suggestion early game they might be scum.
{snip}
then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early.

And the followup question from Luke is:

My question to Val is, and has been:
Why would you expect scum!luke to behave the way you outlined in post 99? Why would I need to discredit you there? Why would I continue on that push once you explicitly said that "Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm," ?

Luke, it's a fair question. Why snip out that one part of that one sentence?

[Lukewarm]

I am engaging with the information! You are telling me that Scum!you would have been overjoyed to have been paired with your scum buddy D1, even if it was accidental????

I thought you stopped saying that Not_Mafia was my scum buddy?

If exactly Not_Mafia was my partner, then maybe there is scum motivation.

If you did not think that Not_Mafia was scummy, then there is not one.

I addressed this.

[Val89]

I am like 99% sure that Val is scum here, but I am going to try (emphasis on try) to not go so hard anymore, because I don't want to be the reason that someone does not want to keep playing on site.

When I saw this, I had NO idea why you would be suggesting this, but I think I've just had the epipthany.

This would be

absolutely terrible

scum play is even one or two of the other town actually spent five minitues reading and thinking critically, but they won't - and you knew this was site meta, didn't you? You knew that all scum you had to do was spam obvious bullshit over and over again and eyes would just glaze over and go "nah, two people argueing with posts longer than five lines; must be TvT" and you would get fucking

townread

for obvscum play.

[Val89]

I am engaging with the information! You are telling me that Scum!you would have been overjoyed to have been paired with your scum buddy D1, even if it was accidental????

I thought you stopped saying that Not_Mafia was my scum buddy?

If exactly Not_Mafia was my partner, then maybe there is scum motivation.

If you did not think that Not_Mafia was scummy, then there is not one.

I addressed this.

I could have suggested you were scum with ArcAngel and there would have be reason for scum you to be upset by that!

while a townie isn't all that worried about about a single player throwing some shade at them on page 2, if that shade causes attention to fall on an actual scum, even if it was accidental on the part of the person throwing it, then that could potentially lead to the scum team going into N1 having lost half their faction - potentially game losing for them.

[Lukewarm]

Luke, it's a fair question. Why snip out that one part of that one sentence?

Mainly because his paragraph, as written, was dense and hard to read.

He spent like 5 lines in that paragraph to say "and scum luke would be worried that either he, or his partner would get eliminated from this" I feel like that was still evident in what I posted -- if it wasn't, my bad I guess

My point was that there was no reason for me to be worried about getting eliminated when he was suggesting we flip Not_Mafia first (and, in this theory, Not_Mafia was no longer my partner from his PoV)

[Val89]

My point was that there was no reason for me to be worried about getting eliminated when he was suggesting we flip Not_Mafia first (and, in this theory, Not_Mafia was no longer my partner from his PoV)

Hell, I could have suggested you were scum with the ghost of Queen Elizabeth the First on an invisible account, and there would be reason for scum!You to be worried about attention falling on your slot!