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[Smoke and Mirrors]

I also still need your full bidding history, it's suspicious you still haven't shared it

I have but not in one post. It’s all in our ISO.

D1, we bid 365 on cop, didn’t get it.
D2, bid 300 on AD, we got the one shot.
D3, bid the remaining 200 on one shot tracker.

That’s it because we ran out of money.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

She also probably doesn't kill Distance.

I'm not sure if I'll be able to post any more after a little bit. I think it's best to leave my vote on nobody. I very much don't want to kill S&M; I think ssbm and marci should crossvote and S&M should decide, but if you guys want to petition the mod for an extension so I can provide more input you can.

@SS, if you believe Distance got an inno on Marci. why would you suggest Marci be voted?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

Could that possibly be why Marci was targeted? To prevent her from revealing Distance had cop?

Why would that put us in an “awkward position”?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

marcis town
like
always town

dont bother pushing her ill treat that as a scumclaim

This really does sound like he could have gotten an inno on her.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

D2 $500 on watcher and got it.
N2 did not act.
N3 watched Smoke & Mirrors, no visits.

Wait, so what you're saying is.

You bought the 2x Watcher.
And on a night with NO NINJA POSSIBLE (the ninja didn't exist until D3), with us being DOWN ONE SCUM (meaning a guilty on scum N2 brings scum down to one scum alive), and there being AN OBVIOUS NIGHTKILL (Distance was the obvious kill), you chose to holster that role which you only had two shots of...

...And then, AFTER A NINJA WAS IN THE GAME (meaning that there's an obvious problem with watching the nightkill), instead of holstering until the ninja was dead, you THEN used it on the second-most-likely nightkill other than marcistar who is the obvious choice to say you used it on if you're planning on claiming the role without visiting the nightkill, WHILE THERE IS AN ALIVE NINJA no less (basically, claiming watcher on marcistar would mean a 1v1 between Something_Smart and someone else, beit a claimed guilty or a claimed no-visit which is a guilty on VFP so Something_Smart cannot target the nightkill of marcistar)...

...And that all through D3 you had almost no reaction to my outrage to the watcher being taken for $500 and then not used competently (other than mentioning that not all people had chimed in when I made that post)?

For a mechanics-oriented player, this smells of bullshit, so it might actually just be VFP + Something_Smart, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut...

1: VFP the ninja needs to die first, and,
2: With the claim of having one shot left, Something_Smart is mechanically better to keep alive today because it limits his options.

I WILL say that this is dismal play from Something_Smart regardless of his alignment tho--if he's scum he should know this is a terrible-ass claim that borderline scumfirms him;
If he's town then out-bidding me on the Watcher when I fucking knew how to use it is basically criminal especially with the holster claimed on N2 when we were down one scum and the Ninja was not in play yet and the claimed watch on Smoke & Mirrors is, while plausible to town, also the watch most convenient for scum to claim.

In either case it's bad from him, and I could make an argument for either--but overall I'm instantly putting him in the suspect pool. He may still be town yet, it could be Gamma+VFP, but VFP+S_S could be it as well.

I'm not really ready to make the call on who VFP is scum with, but the play today is to eliminate VFP and then coordinate the best usage of actions, including imaginality's roleblock and Something_Smart's second watch shot.

(I will say tho that overall balance of probability I thing S_S scum > Gamma scum here. Something_Smart's negligence-if-town and the convenience of ease in being scum, not to mention having defended VFP, mean that overall I would favor him as scum over Gamma right now. Something_Smart's play here as a mechanical player is bad regardless of his alignment, but it is much much much worse as town than as scum; if he is scum, he could have reasons to believe claiming may make him town, he could believe that claiming gives him more of an edge than faking having no role, he could believe that the claim is the lesser of two evils, he could make the claim and hope nobody figures out why it's so egregious, etc.; there's half a dozen reasons why he could believe that he needs to make the claim as scum, even though it is a very bad claim. But if he is town, the negligence is borderline criminal in his usage of the role. So while it could come from Something_Smart as either alignment and you can argue it either way, there's more in favor of him making the bad claim as scum than making that bad of choices as town in my opinion. Ultimately, it doesn't matter tho; we're eliminating VFP today, not Something_Smart, so whether S_S is scum is left to tomorrow, not today.)

Btw RE: the track:
Since scum, presumably, attempted to outbid me on the jailkeeper, but failed, they would know a town player got the jailkeeper.
If the jailkeeper was used to protect, they would assume that it was on Smoke & Mirrors, the more universal townread and loudest voice, which again is why a watch there is convenient.

If the jailkeeper was used offensively rather than defensively, though? Who would the scum think would be blocked? VFP, the person with the ninja and a universal scumread, or the other scum?

OBVIOUSLY, with the scum not having control of the jailkeeper, they would know that IF the jailkeeper were used offensively, that the jailkeeper would be roleblocking VFP, necessitating the non-ninja to perform the nightkill.

Which means that in all probability, the clear on SSBM is in fact a clear. While it's obviously possible scum, knowing that they didn't get the jailkeeper, chose to holster out of fear of the jailkeeper, them deliberately no-killing guarantees the jailkeeper agency; if the jailkeeper was used offensively on VFP, VFP's a guaranteed elimination; if the jailkeeper was used defensively on town, then the town player is cleared from the jailkeeper; this, regardless of an attempt to kill or not.

In other words: scum

could

have holstered, but they had more reason to take a shot than to not. Meaning that the clear while not absolute, I still trust as being reasonably likely to be correct.

So at this point:
Smoke and Mirrors = marcistar = ssbm >> imaginality >>> Gamma Emerald

>

Something_Smart >>>>>>>> VFP to me.

i really need to do some rereading.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm going to VOTE: no elimination for now,

because if S_S is scum and comes back and decides on one of us if we both have 1 vote, we won't be able to force a no elim with just 2 players anymore
If S_S is town and he needs more time he can also vote no elim so we get longer to discuss. I doubt either of you or S_S kill toNight if scum, so I think it's safe.

Another thing I thought of before bed regarding scum!S_S: If you are in Gamma's shoes and S_S is town, don't you just vote him and try to take him down before you? If you're really guiltied as scum, that is the play like 99% of the time, to try to convince town to eliminate the PR that guiltied you first, so that your team doesn't have to kill the PR. In this case, scum doesn't need to kill S_S if he is town because his Watcher shots are used up. But if you're being bussed, you don't want your teammate to get killed, especially if you are already SRed, because maybe the player that originally SRed Gamma (me) doesn't drop it afterward and they both end up going down. The way Gamma handled the guilty, it is possible he didn't want S_S to be eliminated, is what I'm saying.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why to guilty gamma: look at the end of the day before S_S guiltied Gamma. I was closing in on Gamma, and Imaginality was following. I think Gamma was going to be the lim that day even if he wasn't guiltied.

Problem is, it seems likely that Imaginality roleblocked S_S, which means if S_S is scum, he has hitman, and S_S and Gamma swapped claims. That would be really risky to do, which is why I'm sort of PoE'ed into voting you here. And I think you are also PoE'd to vote me if you're town.

It does seem risky to switch claims... but maybe not as risky as I originally thought. Scum!S_S knows I am town. They know I will try to.avoid boosting the scum powers, but if they listened to what I said about powers slipping through the last day, they may have been willing to gamble on dayvig or hitman getting through and going for a play like this. Watcher is the only role that can safely swap claims, because they can watch their partner to make sure they were not auction detectived, and they can get away with it because you did not suspect them, so you would not track them.

Also remember Misty's day 1. She sounds dejected to have rolled scum. "I feel the setup can be won by poe" and "that's going to be my excuse anyway" - what if she is frustrated to have rolled scum already, and then sees.Gamma bussing Kitty. Scum!Misty does not want Kitty to die and starts a counter wagon on VFP. I jump on with her and try to convince Gamma to switch, but he persists in bussing. Misty replaces out - possibly because she is frustrated that I gave Gamma an out and he still bussed Kitty.

I thought you had hitman or do you mean 2 shot?

I guess it’s possible that the watcher claim was fake.

That also has been bugging me. Why does jk!Mastina die > 2 shot watcher!SS? The correct play for scum is to always kill an invest before a jk.

Another thing is that Gamma would 100% tell you pocket me. Gamma KNOWS about my meta of being extremely hard to miselim.

I had the 1-shot hitman, bought for 426 on D1.

I'm talking about S_S can have the 2-shot hitman that was bought for 301 if S_S bought Godfather and 2-Shot Hitman, but claimed he bought Watcher, while Gamma bought Watcher and something else -

Maybe Gamma tried to buy JK for 300 and that's why JK was obscured actually. It's been bothering me why JK was obscured because 4 town!players could afford to outbid the mid-day bid that mastina made - mastina, Marci, S_S, and CB - CB was not around so you can strike him, but S_S scum still has to guess between mastina and marci. If Gamma were trying to buy it for 300 though it might be suspicious if town saw the amount it sold for and looked for massclaim info. If nobody claimed it, it would point to the 500 Watcher or 500 Ninja bid as scum because 500+300=800. Mastina probably spent 300 for JK though, because we saw that the next day she won 2-shot Tracker for 200. I bet mastina placed her 300 bid before Gamma did.

Another reason to kill town!marcistar: if she holsters gravedigger for the next dead scum, she can confirm which powers they died with, and guilty S_S if they swapped their claims. hitman!S_S can kill Marci in this case, but they didn't know hitman was going to be sold at the time they tried to kill Marci. They shot at her the night that followed her Gravedigger claim.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

marcis town
like
always town

dont bother pushing her ill treat that as a scumclaim

This really does sound like he could have gotten an inno on her.

I think 100% this is an inno on Marci. Another reason she may have been shot at on top of having Gravedigger is that someone else besides scum!S_S may have picked up on the distance crumb at some point, then Marci's 2nd Gravedigger shot, if used on scum, would be likely to be believed. If S_S and Gamma were swapping claims, Marci is actually the most dangerous PR for them, because Gamma can Watch S_S to confirm that S_S was not auction detectived before they swap claims.

But buying Watcher to guilty your partner later for towncred comes crumbling down on you if a gravedigger reveals your dead partner doesn't have the roles they said they bought, or worse, that your dead partner has the role you said you bought.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

Could that possibly be why Marci was targeted? To prevent her from revealing Distance had cop?

Why would that put us in an “awkward position”?

It's awkward because if marci is scum and she is the object of Distance's inno crumb, she is the one confirming the inno on herself. If I had gravedigger and dug Distance, there would be no doubt that Marci is inno - but scum!Marci can always be falsely confirming herself.

So this is S_S spotting the inno crumb, but also not wanting us to trust it 100%. Not necessarily something that town has no reason to do, because you have to be cautious as town, but scum!S_S would definitely prefer if we didn't clear Marci.

[marcistar]

ur making it more confusing for me guys

UNVOTE:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also still need your full bidding history, it's suspicious you still haven't shared it

I have but not in one post. It’s all in our ISO.

D1, we bid 365 on cop, didn’t get it.
D2, bid 300 on AD, we got the one shot.
D3, bid the remaining 200 on one shot tracker.

That’s it because we ran out of money.

Okay thanks, I was wondering if there were any other bids on D1 or D2 that you made, but did not win. I did have all that info already.

Why did you bid 365 on Cop though? The mid-day was 125, so I thought maybe you made a bid on a second power for 135, and put the rest on Cop, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Surely you also saw Imaginality's D1 post about bidding at least 400 on roles so that scum cannot outbid us later if they do it now. What bugs me about 365 on cop is 2 things:

1. scum!S&M bidding 365 is left with 435 for later days. 435 is approximately what the rest of town would be bidding on powers if following town!Imaginality's strategy, so it is a good amount to be left with if you're scum.
2. The leading mid-day bid on 2-shot AD was 365. I'm not sure who placed that bid, but knowing that you later claimed to have made a 365 bid on D1 makes me wonder if it was actually you that was leading mid-day with 365, which would not be possible with 500 dogecoin, because you won 1-shot for 300.

So, is there any reasoning you had for bidding 365? How did you and pooky arrive at that number?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

btw last time market place was done town lost. i joind hoping i could change that.

Actually Alisae was the last to run it and it was a town win

Damn, I remembered reading this and was hoping someone else posted it. I found the game Gamma is referring to eventually, and the title of the topic does not contain owners market blitz, it's like, Furret's bizarre adventure, part II, or something like that. Very difficult to find and imo if someone else had posted this then for sure it was a slip they were in the same PT as Alisae, and had info from er about the last time ey ran the setup.

[Something_Smart]

Back, gonna be in and out of service for a bit. Did some skimming, I'll try to address stuff now.

[Something_Smart]

Wrt Distance and marci, I think it's possible they inno'd her, but it's also possible that someone else like Flea got the cop.

I think the Distance kill points away from marci, inno or no inno, but my townread on S&M is much stronger than that, so that's why I framed it as S&M deciding between ssbm and marci.

[Something_Smart]

Regarding the track, it seems like you were initially mistaken. Ssbm did not attempt to kill marci. However, that's not conclusive, because Gamma could have attempted to kill marci that night.

[Something_Smart]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I also still need your full bidding history, it's suspicious you still haven't shared it

I have but not in one post. It’s all in our ISO.

D1, we bid 365 on cop, didn’t get it.
D2, bid 300 on AD, we got the one shot.
D3, bid the remaining 200 on one shot tracker.

That’s it because we ran out of money.

Okay thanks, I was wondering if there were any other bids on D1 or D2 that you made, but did not win. I did have all that info already.

Why did you bid 365 on Cop though? The mid-day was 125, so I thought maybe you made a bid on a second power for 135, and put the rest on Cop, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Surely you also saw Imaginality's D1 post about bidding at least 400 on roles so that scum cannot outbid us later if they do it now. What bugs me about 365 on cop is 2 things:

1. scum!S&M bidding 365 is left with 435 for later days. 435 is approximately what the rest of town would be bidding on powers if following town!Imaginality's strategy, so it is a good amount to be left with if you're scum.
2. The leading mid-day bid on 2-shot AD was 365. I'm not sure who placed that bid, but knowing that you later claimed to have made a 365 bid on D1 makes me wonder if it was actually you that was leading mid-day with 365, which would not be possible with 500 dogecoin, because you won 1-shot for 300.

So, is there any reasoning you had for bidding 365? How did you and pooky arrive at that number?

I have no idea, he just posted that in our hydra PT.

It’s not us and it’s obviously not Marci, so maybe no elim is optimal?

You know that Imaginality confirmed our one shot AD and now you also know we did track you. I was just really confused by Gypyx’s answer. I’m now clear you didn’t go anywhere.

Pooky just clarified for me on Discord that jk was only 1 shot, so she was probably killed for tracker and she was likely tracking either SS or Gamma based on her reads.

She locktowned me and Marci and wasn’t suspicious of you.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Wrt Distance and marci, I think it's possible they inno'd her, but it's also possible that someone else like Flea got the cop.

I think the Distance kill points away from marci, inno or no inno, but my townread on S&M is much stronger than that, so that's why I framed it as S&M deciding between ssbm and marci.

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Regarding the track, it seems like you were initially mistaken. Ssbm did not attempt to kill marci. However, that's not conclusive, because Gamma could have attempted to kill marci that night.

Yes, I realize that now, Gypyx’s initial response confused me but he made it abundantly clear that Kyouku did not in fact visit Marci or anyone for that matter.

[Something_Smart]

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Well, when I thought the deadline was going to fall before I returned, it would come down to either me deciding with no information from today, or you deciding after seeing everything that happens today.

(Also, my reads have been not excellent this game which is understandable because I replaced in so late, and I generally just try to defer making decisions if I can, so given the choice to avoid making a decision I will generally choose to avoid it. )

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

I mean, sometimes people are overconfident about things. I definitely know people who would say something like that without a hard inno. (And I mean it's obviously exaggerated anyway; even if Distance did know marci was town, it still doesn't mean that town couldn't be wrong about marci, and so it's far from a scumclaim to push on her.)

[Something_Smart]

Maybe it wasn't clear that if I vote ssbm and then disappear for the rest of the day, that basically kills her, as long as marci also votes her and doesn't unvote. So if I were to put down a vote early in the day, I'd effectively be robbing you of any say at all in the decision.

Obviously the extension is the best of both worlds because now we can talk it through together. But if you are having doubts on my slot then you should put those to rest first because right now I can't tell if you're interrogating me or trying to work with me.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

It’s not us, I believe Distance did get an inno on Marci, so it’s either you or Kyouku but certain things aren’t making sense to me. Gamma’s no dummy. In what world does scum think watcher wouldn’t watch Mastina but he visits her regardless. And based on her reads, Mastina was very like tracking either you or Gamma. She was never going track me or Marci and she wasn’t sr Kyouku.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Well, when I thought the deadline was going to fall before I returned, it would come down to either me deciding with no information from today, or you deciding after seeing everything that happens today.

(Also, my reads have been not excellent this game which is understandable because I replaced in so late, and I generally just try to defer making decisions if I can, so given the choice to avoid making a decision I will generally choose to avoid it. )

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

I mean, sometimes people are overconfident about things. I definitely know people who would say something like that without a hard inno. (And I mean it's obviously exaggerated anyway; even if Distance did know marci was town, it still doesn't mean that town couldn't be wrong about marci, and so it's far from a scumclaim to push on her.)

Except for the fact that we have a winning 1 shot cop bid unaccounted for and calling a push on Marci a “scumclaim” is extremely strong just based upon a read and add to that, that he was the NK - I think it likely scum killed him thinking he had cop.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Well, when I thought the deadline was going to fall before I returned, it would come down to either me deciding with no information from today, or you deciding after seeing everything that happens today.

(Also, my reads have been not excellent this game which is understandable because I replaced in so late, and I generally just try to defer making decisions if I can, so given the choice to avoid making a decision I will generally choose to avoid it. )

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

I mean, sometimes people are overconfident about things. I definitely know people who would say something like that without a hard inno. (And I mean it's obviously exaggerated anyway;

even if Distance did know marci was town, it still doesn't mean that town couldn't be wrong about marci, and so it's far from a scumclaim to push on her.)

Wait what? How could Distance know she was town without the inno? If he KNOWs she’s town, then he obviously can’t be wrong on her. Are you now saying you know Marci’s town?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Locktowning us is one thing but blindly sheeping us is another. If you think that, then why didn’t you just vote Kyouku? I don’t understand what locktowning me has to do with me deciding?

Well, when I thought the deadline was going to fall before I returned, it would come down to either me deciding with no information from today, or you deciding after seeing everything that happens today.

(Also, my reads have been not excellent this game which is understandable because I replaced in so late, and I generally just try to defer making decisions if I can, so given the choice to avoid making a decision I will generally choose to avoid it. )

Being obvtown doesn’t make me right and why would Distance say pushing Marci was a “scumclaim” if he didn’t have an inno on her?

I mean, sometimes people are overconfident about things. I definitely know people who would say something like that without a hard inno. (And I mean it's obviously exaggerated anyway;

even if Distance did know marci was town, it still doesn't mean that town couldn't be wrong about marci, and so it's far from a scumclaim to push on her.)

Wait what? How could Distance know she was town without the inno? If he KNOWs she’s town, then he obviously can’t be wrong on her. Are you now saying you know Marci’s town?

Oh nm, I misread this. If Distance is town and got a cop inno on Marci, he was clearly softing it. Did you not interpret it that way?