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[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also good luck, I'm happy with this one now even if we lose, since I figured out it was Gamma and was able to course-correct my read on S&M in mlimlo and not lose it for us there.

[marcistar]

HELP ME I DONT WANNA BE THE REASON TOWN LOSES

i really do wanna vote something_smart but im scared

[marcistar]

yall making it hard for me ;-; i can see how u both can be scum

[Something_Smart]

I mean... would you mind laying out the main arguments for and against each of us?

I feel like it just requires so many things to go exactly right for me to be scum, whereas there's nothing really preventing ssbm from being scum.

Like for me to be scum you have to assume that
- I killed Distance and then told everyone about the inno
- I swapped roles with Gamma without having any clue what roles were coming on the next day or whether that would pay off
- I took the godfather despite knowing (or at least suspecting) that the cop was dead-- note that we do know that scum took GF, but I was the one to give the Distance-cop theory so it's possible they didn't believe it or wanted to WIFOM.
- I decided to guilty Gamma and prolong the game instead of trying to execute ssbm for the win (which would still give me a chance of winning if I lost that 1v1, and S&M basically trusted me unequivocally)

And for ssbm to be scum there's... really not much you have to assume. Just that she went for the hitman D1 for towncred and then didn't make the kill on N3 when she was tracked.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What makes me scum? I dont think anyone ever cased me this game - also, my enhances were townie, and I think I've demonstrated pretty well that I have been trying very hard to solve this game in the last couple of Days. I do think I've hit the nail on the head with the theory that scum were coasting around 2 TvTs.

And despite their many (what I perceived as) scummy pushes on me, I was able to work out that S&M had a genuine misunderstanding and I saw that from them and was able to clear them and move on, and I don't think scum does that. S_S has not been trying to solve, it's very suspicious that they holstered watcher, and suspicious that Gamma would try to kill Mastina when Mastina is unlikely to track him, but is likely to be Watched. The only reason Gamma would have done that is if S&M were scum and they were not scum. S_S is clearly scum here and he tried to get a mechclear and then ride out mlimlo while 3 town had to Duke it out. Plus he was hesitant to clear you even though he found the Distance crumb. Plus the whole Misty case.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Let me get some quotes from Gamma's scum pt from first iteration- where scum won. I think they'll be telling of what Gamma tried his time

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I'm not one to make scum cases in general, and I didn't really scumread you until I was forced to by PoE. But I don't need to make an argument that you're scum, I only need to make an argument that I'm not.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... lit=Owners

Just read these first 3 pages of scum pt: highlights are, Socrates tells Gamma he will push him early in the game and get him to contribute so it makes both of them look more like town. Seems like in main thread this goes too far because Gamma says he'll have to power us socrates. Gamma says he has a long game plan involving leaving a specific 2 town players, tywin (the MO) and infinty alive, presumably to have them fight one another. Earlier in the scum pt socrates says tywin is a good town to have around for TvTs. It all fits, it's a very similar plan to last time, and why not do it again if it worked in the same setup the first time?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I mean... would you mind laying out the main arguments for and against each of us?

I feel like it just requires so many things to go exactly right for me to be scum, whereas there's nothing really preventing ssbm from being scum.

Like for me to be scum you have to assume that
- I killed Distance and then told everyone about the inno
- I swapped roles with Gamma without having any clue what roles were coming on the next day or whether that would pay off
- I took the godfather despite knowing (or at least suspecting) that the cop was dead-- note that we do know that scum took GF, but I was the one to give the Distance-cop theory so it's possible they didn't believe it or wanted to WIFOM.
- I decided to guilty Gamma and prolong the game instead of trying to execute ssbm for the win (which would still give me a chance of winning if I lost that 1v1, and S&M basically trusted me unequivocally)

And for ssbm to be scum there's... really not much you have to assume. Just that she went for the hitman D1 for towncred and then didn't make the kill on N3 when she was tracked.

-killed distance because I was right about the bus and Distance had to die to throw off the scent. Pointing out the crumb that nobody else noticed indicates you may have been pr hunting as well as you seem to not contribute anything else that is useful to the solve. But pointing it out does get you dasy townpoints in a lot of people's eyes I think. You saw that and TMIed it though, because you knew both Distance and Marci were town. That's why you spotted it when nobody else did.

-i don't think you planned to swap with Gamma, but after the later roles appeared and it was revealed that Imaginality had holstered roleblocker, it became convenient to swap with Gamma to throw off the scent on the off chance that hitman did appear

-godfather was taken as part of the plan to reverse your bid claims. Scum knew no townie would want it so there was no chance of being outbid, and scum needed us to see 499+301 means that Gamma won godfather and hitman. This is also why Marci was aimed at, because she can guilty you by digging Gamma, and a bus was probably in Gamma's back pocket, ready to solidify the watcher claim as town. By buying watcher you deny probably the second strongest town PR and if you bus your teammate.with it you score major towncred. Look at D1 and see Gamma.has already bussed for towncred once in this game. He could easily have planned this one too.

- tbh I think Gamma decided you should bus him with a guilty because he knew I'd caught him and wasn't letting go, and it would set you up for the next day's mlimlo better than you would be if I had limmed Gamma cleanly. You didnt really contribute anything aside from that bus, so without it you'd be dead in the water in mlimlo, even with S&M's trust, and I think Gamma knew that once he flipped that S&M would get suspicious of her TRs (you)

All you're saying is that it's easy for me to be scum because you dont have to make many assumptions: let me quote something socrates said in Gamma's scum pt after they won it last time around:

"Mafia is a wonderful demonstration of how Occam's Razor is a shit bet."

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What makes me scum? I dont think anyone ever cased me this game - also, my enhances were townie, and I think I've demonstrated pretty well that I have been trying very hard to solve this game in the last couple of Days. I do think I've hit the nail on the head with the theory that scum were coasting around 2 TvTs.

And despite their many (what I perceived as) scummy pushes on me, I was able to work out that S&M had a genuine misunderstanding and I saw that from them and was able to clear them and move on, and I don't think scum does that. S_S has not been trying to solve, it's very suspicious that they holstered watcher, and suspicious that Gamma would try to kill Mastina when Mastina is unlikely to track him, but is likely to be Watched. The only reason Gamma would have done that is if S&M were scum and they were not scum. S_S is clearly scum here and he tried to get a mechclear and then ride out mlimlo while 3 town had to Duke it out. Plus he was hesitant to clear you even though he found the Distance crumb. Plus the whole Misty case.

Btw this was for you Marci but it got ninjad by S_S and he replied as though it were for him, just wanted to let you know.

Also, really, don't stress too much about it. Being wrong in limlo happens. Tough sometimes to be the conftown.

[Something_Smart]

-godfather was taken as part of the plan to reverse your bid claims. Scum knew no townie would want it so there was no chance of being outbid, and scum needed us to see 499+301 means that Gamma won godfather and hitman.

But at this point, it wasn't known that 301 would be enough to secure a PR on D4. It could just have easily been 400+400 or anything else.

I can only assume that Gamma spent so much on GF because he actually wanted it, which would mean that scum didn't know who got the cop or if they'd used it yet. And then he saw people calling out the bid and he freaked out and realized that he was gonna get caught if he didn't claim it.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

-godfather was taken as part of the plan to reverse your bid claims. Scum knew no townie would want it so there was no chance of being outbid, and scum needed us to see 499+301 means that Gamma won godfather and hitman.

But at this point, it wasn't known that 301 would be enough to secure a PR on D4. It could just have easily been 400+400 or anything else.

I can only assume that Gamma spent so much on GF because he actually wanted it, which would mean that scum didn't know who got the cop or if they'd used it yet. And then he saw people calling out the bid and he freaked out and realized that he was gonna get caught if he didn't claim it.

If it had been 400 and 400 then there would be no question of the possibility that I, S&M, or Imaginality bought 2-shot hitman - we would all be cleared because we didn't have the money as scum to afford that. By making it 499 and

301

, it leaves the most possibilities around for townies who could buy hitman if they were scum, because 301-300 = 1. Any townie with at least 1 dogecoin left could be scum that bought Hitman. At the time that you placed that bid (before the mid-day reveal on D3), there was no evidence that any townies except VFP had spent everything.

Iit was unknown at the time which role it would be the next day, but the idea was to make town believe that Gamma bought whatever role it was, so that when the next Day came and you guiltied him, town would assume the ability was gone. If the slipped-through ability had been Daykill, you could have won it and not used it after Gamma was guiltied and pushed us to no lim so we could get down to odd numbers. Then you could have used nightkill and daykill to bring it to 1-1 and win. 2 potentially gamewinning abilities could have come for you on D4; you didn't have to know Hitman was coming to pull the swap you pulled.

499 +

301

is an ideal setup to a) frame townies and b) clear the claimed scum!Watcher of suspicion. By the time N3 came, it would have become clear to your team (because of the VFP claim and the fact that JK was not won by either of you for more than 200) that there were no townies left that could outbid 301. Prior to the reveal of the bid on Godfather, in 970, VFP claims he has already prepared for his lim and placed everything on Ninja. You would, at this point, know that CB and Mastina are the only 2 townies that can outbid 301. When CB was eliminated and you went into the Night without having won JK, you would known only mastina could have outbid you on JK, and known by extension that nobody else could outbid you on the 301 power. If Mastina had not outbid you, you could have killed her that Night instead of trying to kill Marci, and nobody would have been left alive that could outbid you for a 301 power.

If you had actually wanted Godfather, you would have placed your large bid on JK and neither of you would have claimed it publicly, then, after the mid-day, you would bid your 300 extra on Godfather and obscure Godfather at end of Day. This means you didn't actually want Godfather, rather you wanted people to think Gamma had Godfather, in preparation to make them think he died with whatever ability was coming the next day.

[Something_Smart]

If the slipped-through ability had been Daykill, you could have won it and not used it after Gamma was guiltied and pushed us to no lim so we could get down to odd numbers. Then you could have used nightkill and daykill to bring it to 1-1 and win.

Yeah this definitely sounds like a plan that would work. "Hey guys I know scum have a missing daykill but probably the guy who got guiltied had it and just didn't use it but it's totally safe to no-exe and go to 2:1, right?"

Also, I didn't really think of it before, but the number of scum powers that came up may be indicative of the MO bringing them up. (Maybe not; it could also be that she tried to LAMIST it but got unlucky.) Daykill would actually have been great for town on D4-- since we were on evens, it doesn't help scum get majority, but they have to make sure a townie doesn't get it. Hitman was pretty much the most pro-scum power that could come up.

[marcistar]

idk im so confused with the numbers and everything

[Something_Smart]

What part are you confused about?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If the numbers are confusing you can take them out of consideration and think about the day play, the night kills, and the claims.

Day play: I feel I contributed significantly more than S_S and interacted with every slot in a genuine way.
Night kills:
Distance was killed to hide the fact that Gamma was bussing Kitty. Bonus townpoints to me for being the only one that figured that out and pushed it on D2. Would scum commit that hard to bussing Gamma D2 and trying to take the game all the way to the end? You cant argue that Distance kill was to give me a credible reason to back off of Gamma, because I came back to him later on. If the idea was to distance from Gamma and then create a progression on him by killing Distance, I would have no reason to be pushing him end of day 4 the way i did,

before

S_S guiltied him.

Marci, you were shot at because you had Gravedigger and if you gravedigged Gamma after S_S bussed him, you would have seen Gamma did not die with Godfather. You weren't leading any wagons on scum, I dont think you SRed scum, so why else would you have been shot at but because of the power you had? Scum also knew you had spent money and no longer had a full wallet.

Mastina died because she had tracker. Dont worry about the numbers here, she claimed the midday bid of 200 was hers and it sold for 200, so scum knew she had it. Why does Gamma kill the claimed Tracker that is TRing him if he knows town has a Watcher alive who will obviously be watching the claimed PR? The answer is that he would not. He knows the watcher is scum so he is able to kill mastina freely. If S_S is town, he just shoots S_S instead of mastina, because mastina was TRing Gamma and S&M, and S&M was TRing Gamma as well. He was deeply seated in a townblock. His partner should have been the one killing that night, so why didn't his partner kill mastina? BECAUSE I was about to turboyeet Gamma into the sun and since he was dead anyways he sacrificed himself to give towncred to his buddy S_S.

Imaginality died because you were cop cleared but weren't very influential, and because S&M and I were left alive to TvT like Mastina and VFP.

S&M died because they had figured out S_S was scum and his last chance to win was to get you, who have been indecisive, to vote me. If I were scum I would have no killed and you would have followed S&M and I in voting S_S.

And the claims - see mastina's iso, she blows S_S up about his claim, first directed generally at the watcher that failed to watch Distance, then specifically at S_S for having such an unbelievable story about holstering N2 and then making a poor choice N3. And you can look at my iso for the post detailing all that I enhanced this game. You will see my claim has clear town thought processes explaining why I did what I did, and S_S's does not.

[marcistar]

but what if ur absolutely bamboozling me

[marcistar]

What part are you confused about?

im so confused for where the room for a possible scum watcher to get a 2nd pr would be

[ssbm_Kyouko]

but what if ur absolutely bamboozling me

What if S_S and Gamma are? They had S&M fooled, they had me fooled for a while too. I thought after the Gamma flip that S&M was scum for sure, but I cased them rigorously and it came to light that they were misguided by a misunderstanding with mod communication. And they realized I haven't been lying, and I realized they hadn't been lying, and we both realized S_S had duped us, but then deadline hit.

So here we are

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Scum in general dont try as hard as I have to solve the game, they dont reread over and over, they dont dig into multiple players' meta, they dont review past iterations of the setup. S_S was not trying to solve this game, ever, period.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What part are you confused about?

im so confused for where the room for a possible scum watcher to get a 2nd pr would be

The scum watcher tried to get Jailkeeper, that is why it was hidden. Scum did not want people to know what JK went for because they wanted it for themselves and didnt want to claim it, because they were planning on claiming other roles (watcher and godfather). They hid it because if it went for 300 and nobody claimed it, it would look suspicious for anyone who had spent 500 (the Watcher).

If they could have afforded to pay more for it, they would have, and Mastina would not have won it. Scum would have won it publicly for something over 300 so that it would point away from the watcher and towards town that spent 400something, like me, Imaginality, the 2-shot AD. But they didnt have enough money to do this, so they hid Jailkeeper.

[marcistar]

What part are you confused about?

im so confused for where the room for a possible scum watcher to get a 2nd pr would be

The scum watcher tried to get Jailkeeper, that is why it was hidden. Scum did not want people to know what JK went for because they wanted it for themselves and didnt want to claim it, because they were planning on claiming other roles (watcher and godfather). They hid it because if it went for 300 and nobody claimed it, it would look suspicious for anyone who had spent 500 (the Watcher)..

so then why didnt they try to go for tracker the next day since they lost..?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

They wanted to go for hitman and show us it was won for 301. At this time, Gamma had bought Watcher for 500, and had 300 left. S_S had bought Godfather for 499, and had 301 left. S_S bought Hitman and hey did not hide it.

Because Gamma had switched claims, it looks to everyone like Gamma won Godfather and Hitman for 499+301=800 total, leaving him with $0.

If they also went for tracker, we would know that scum outside of Gamma were trying to buy tracker.

Scum had 2 options:
-Outbid Tracker and hide how much it sold for
-Wait and see how much tracker sold for, so they would know whether mastina or marcistar won tracker, and could then kill accordingly. Scum tried to buy Jailkeeper for 300 on the dot (I can deduce this because watcher went for 500, and if they would have spent 301, scum would have won it, so they must have tried with 300), so they know mastina has only 200 left at most. Since mastina claimed the 200 midday bid on tracker, they knew if the day ended any higher than 200, that you won it.

This is another way, besides the cop inno, that I know you are town. Scum wanted to know if you or mastina won tracker, and they inadvertently cleared you by not outbidding you on tracker.

^and that last paragraph is exactly the kind of insight into the solve that S_S has not provided in this game, and I've been working on my analysis all throughout xlo to make sure I'm making the right decision. Analyzing every angle, taking my time, suggesting that we no lim for the extra day phase, etc. And I actually used my time to solve this. S_S hasn't done that.

[Something_Smart]

Specifically, the only theory that makes any sense for me being scum is if I swapped claims with Gamma, so I actually got the godfather and he got the watcher, and that's how I was able to afford hitman (since I was RB'd after Gamma died, I can't be scum unless I have the hitman).

This theory would require us to have planned the swap before we even knew what was coming on the next day or whether it would pay off.

[Something_Smart]

^and that last paragraph is exactly the kind of insight into the solve that S_S has not provided in this game, and I've been working on my analysis all throughout xlo to make sure I'm making the right decision. Analyzing every angle, taking my time, suggesting that we no lim for the extra day phase, etc. And I actually used my time to solve this. S_S hasn't done that.

This is worth responding to. All this is totally true, and totally NAI. I don't have to do a whit of analysis, unless marci asks for it. The analysis isn't worth anything; it doesn't prove anything, it just shows a possible world. If marci is having any trouble understanding why the world I'm presenting, I am happy to dive into it... but aside from that, doing this kind of analysis like you are is just trying to overwhelm her with lots of words, when she's already admitted she's having trouble processing everything.