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[ssbm_Kyouko]

Specifically, the only theory that makes any sense for me being scum is if I swapped claims with Gamma, so I actually got the godfather and he got the watcher, and that's how I was able to afford hitman (since I was RB'd after Gamma died, I can't be scum unless I have the hitman).

This theory would require us to have planned the swap before we even knew what was coming on the next day or whether it would pay off.

You were able to kill through a roleblock so yeah, you have hitman, and you swapped claims with Gamma. I assume you guys did it to deceive town, and you were banking on either hitman or daykill to appear, because there is only about a 26% chance that all the roles I enhance appear on the last day, so it is safe and reasonable as scum to expect something beneficial to scum to slip through, and you guys got lucky.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

^and that last paragraph is exactly the kind of insight into the solve that S_S has not provided in this game, and I've been working on my analysis all throughout xlo to make sure I'm making the right decision. Analyzing every angle, taking my time, suggesting that we no lim for the extra day phase, etc. And I actually used my time to solve this. S_S hasn't done that.

This is worth responding to. All this is totally true, and totally NAI. I don't have to do a whit of analysis, unless marci asks for it. The analysis isn't worth anything; it doesn't prove anything, it just shows a possible world. If marci is having any trouble understanding why the world I'm presenting, I am happy to dive into it... but aside from that, doing this kind of analysis like you are is just trying to overwhelm her with lots of words, when she's already admitted she's having trouble processing everything.

This is why scum!S_S killed S&M by the way. He thinks you will be overwhelmed by what I'm saying and change your mind, and he knows if S&M is alive he doesnt get away with coasting.

and she isn't having trouble processing everything, it's just the numbers that are confusing her. You really think so little of her it pisses me off

[marcistar]

something_smart pls can u tell me why ur town again i forgot ur reasons

[Something_Smart]

I mean... would you mind laying out the main arguments for and against each of us?

I feel like it just requires so many things to go exactly right for me to be scum, whereas there's nothing really preventing ssbm from being scum.

Like for me to be scum you have to assume that
- I killed Distance and then told everyone about the inno
- I swapped roles with Gamma without having any clue what roles were coming on the next day or whether that would pay off
- I took the godfather despite knowing (or at least suspecting) that the cop was dead-- note that we do know that scum took GF, but I was the one to give the Distance-cop theory so it's possible they didn't believe it or wanted to WIFOM.
- I decided to guilty Gamma and prolong the game instead of trying to execute ssbm for the win (which would still give me a chance of winning if I lost that 1v1, and S&M basically trusted me unequivocally)

And for ssbm to be scum there's... really not much you have to assume. Just that she went for the hitman D1 for towncred and then didn't make the kill on N3 when she was tracked.

It's pretty much all here. For me to be scum would require a lot of convoluted and risky plays, and although I'm not a stranger to complexity I would never make things this complicated if I could use a more straightforward plan such as guiltying ssbm instead of Gamma. (And based on how S&M were acting that would have probably won on the spot if I were scum.)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If I'm scum I probably just outbid mastina on tracker, obscure it, and shoot town watcher S_S, and I dont push Gamma the day before mlimlo.

I also dont hardpush the bus theory when Gamma was bussing D1, because he would be my only partner after Kitty, and I don't butt heads with S&M and draw attention to myself.

Look at what Gamma said when he voted me. No prior progression, essentially just nakedly sheeping S&M when they vote me. That is also not something he would be doing to his last partner. There's just no way.

S_S talks about swapping his claim with Gamma like it's a convoluted conspiracy or something, but it simply isn't. This is why it makes sense, and there are no mental gymnastics here.

Buying Watcher for 500 is a good way to a) demonstrate you're town with a bid of 500 and b) take away a strong power from town.

Gamma bought it planning to use it for towncred and to possibly find town PRs, like the doctor, or play defensive against the 2 investigative auction detectives that rolled.that day. Once scum realized it was impossible for the 2-shot AD to be alive, and that you had used your gravedigger shots, it was completely safe to swap claims, because they cannot be caught doing it. There is no downside.

Swapping claims doesnt hurt them at all - it only helps them. There is only upside, because in death they can fool us. Even if a good power didnt slip through, it was worthwhile to swap claims because of the element of deception that makes things murkier.

They got quite lucky to roll hitman though, and it really worked out for them that Imaginality had the roleblock left, because it makes S_S look clear.

[marcistar]

I mean... would you mind laying out the main arguments for and against each of us?

I feel like it just requires so many things to go exactly right for me to be scum, whereas there's nothing really preventing ssbm from being scum.

Like for me to be scum you have to assume that
- I killed Distance and then told everyone about the inno
- I swapped roles with Gamma without having any clue what roles were coming on the next day or whether that would pay off
- I took the godfather despite knowing (or at least suspecting) that the cop was dead-- note that we do know that scum took GF, but I was the one to give the Distance-cop theory so it's possible they didn't believe it or wanted to WIFOM.
- I decided to guilty Gamma and prolong the game instead of trying to execute ssbm for the win (which would still give me a chance of winning if I lost that 1v1, and S&M basically trusted me unequivocally)

And for ssbm to be scum there's... really not much you have to assume. Just that she went for the hitman D1 for towncred and then didn't make the kill on N3 when she was tracked.

It's pretty much all here. For me to be scum would require a lot of convoluted and risky plays, and although I'm not a stranger to complexity I would never make things this complicated if I could use a more straightforward plan such as guiltying ssbm instead of Gamma. (And based on how S&M were acting that would have probably won on the spot if I were scum.)

whats the towniest thing u've done this game u think?

[Something_Smart]

Uh, getting a guilty on scum? Does that count?

[marcistar]

good point good point

but ignoring that what would u think?

[Something_Smart]

Are you looking for any argument why I'm town, or specifically actions that I wouldn't have done at all as scum?

Because like the fact that a role swap would be required is a pretty solid reason why I'm town, but I wouldn't say that's a "towny thing I've done" per se.

[Something_Smart]

In terms of things I actually did, I think I was a lot more insistent and interactive with my townreads (especially S&M, but all of them to some extent) than I usually am as scum.

[marcistar]

hmm how do i explain what im looking for

its like, im looking for things like not involving bidded roles,
do u have anything like that, and if u do, do u got examples? :oo

[Something_Smart]

You're gonna have to be more specific, I think. I can barely remember anything from the early days, only the most big-picture things. And by the time we got to like D4 the roles were everything.

[Something_Smart]

Besides, if you don't know my meta, I can't really imagine I could make a more compelling town case on myself than you could by just reading my ISO.

[marcistar]

You're gonna have to be more specific, I think. I can barely remember anything from the early days, only the most big-picture things. And by the time we got to like D4 the roles were everything.

t_t so u dont have anything u wanna point out? i wanna see how u look like in ur eyes
earlier days stuff probs gonna be more impactful

i dont know either of ur guyses meta, but i already know how ssbm_kyouko sees herself.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like I still don't really understand what you're looking for, or why you think it will help.

My play this game was basically centered around spending a lot to grab an important role and then trying to use that role effectively, which I did, and the amount I spent makes as much of my money accountable as possible. In terms of non-mechanics stuff it was mostly identifying townies (VFP, mastina, S&M) and trying to work with them, though only really succeeding in the case of S&M. And I do think I worked great with S&M until the end when their paranoia got stirred up while I was V/LA and couldn't talk to them about it.

My scumgame is generally just a stiff imitation of the kinds of things I do in my towngame. So hanging back, identifying townreads, and trying to work with them, these things all happen when I'm scum, but generally in a more shitty way (how much more shitty depends on whether I'm having a good day or not). But the stuff this game that wouldn't happen when I'm scum... that's the mechanics. Sorry, I can route around it, but I'm not really gonna give anything interesting. I'm a strong mechanical player; the mechanics play from scum this game was sloppy, and, if I'm scum, risky. And guiltying my partner when there's a perfectly available mis-exe instead is just... pointless. I don't intentionally make things harder on myself like that.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think he’s town. Who do you dislike off Kitty wagon?

{Cyrus, marci, ssbm} would be my exe pool then. I don't especially scumread any of them, though.

S_S was pushing Distance D2, probably so the townflip would take credibility away from bus theory. NK could have been his way of accomplishing this as well. Also his off wagon exe pool that he doesnt scumread are all town

Do you think scum would make a kill so blatantly not in their best interests?

I mean, thanks to WIFOM, anything blatantly not in scum's interest may actually be in scum's interest.

Funny that you make this post and are now defending yourself by saying you wouldn't swap claims or wouldn't guilty Gamma as scum because it makes it hard for yourself

something_smart do u got any reads?

Still catching up, but they haven't changed much since yesterday. I still like VFP, S&M, mastina, and I'm not interested in CB or Gamma today.

Between the rest I'd prefer ssbm today I think, but I'm not opposed to imaginality.

fake reads

something smart i still want ur reads xoxoxoxoxoxoooxox
lowkey looks like ur just avoiding it imo

What is 1102? Chopped liver?

For the rest of your points, it seems like you've done a lot of "this is why scum would want to do what S_S did, therefore he's scummy" without really analyzing how likely I would be to do them as town. I'm willing to respond to specific points if you want (though I don't want to shit up the thread if you're just going to dismiss it or refuse to listen).

yes he was avoiding it and on top of that is preemptively defensive saying you would dismiss it or refuse to listen. Not something he should be saying to someone he hasn't sorted yet. That's bad faith.

wheres ur reasons?

VFP I explained. I liked 439, 469, and 561. They don't feel like angles that scum is likely to decide are worth taking.
S&M has basically been Nancy, and usually when Nancy is scum she plays pretty transparently toward an agenda but it seems like she's really committed to solving here. She can in fact read me well and I think it counts for a lot that she didn't just pay lip service toward calling me town but actually worked to try to save me.
Mastina read is mostly explained in 917. She tends to play a very honest scumgame, which means that her whole spiel about being disengaged is probably true. While she might be disengaged as scum, I wouldn't expect that to produce things like 492.

As for CB, I didn't have anything specific to back up that feeling, but his play and particularly his reachout and engagement with me has been very consistent with his towngame.
Gamma I thought Alisae was genuinely pissed about bad town play and he was also the last vote on Kitty which makes it an unlikely bus. Since I made that post this read has risen due to the godfather bid, which while dumb seems pretty unlikely to be from scum.

Looks to me like S_S is meta-reading (easy to fake if you are informed) all 3 of mastina, CB, and S&M. His VFP read also lacks depth and his Gamma read is based entirely on Alisae up until the point Gamma bids on godfather. To top it off, his reason he thinks that makes Gamma towny is that its dumb to do as scum. Ring any bells? Directly contradicts his previous interaction with Gamma where he says something that is not in scum's best interests becomes in their best interest for that very reason.

Literally all of S_S's reads are faked, his Gamma read is just egregious when you consider the reasoning he provided, and it's easy to see by ISOing him. This is just what I noticed on a quick ISO.

He also says he worked with his townreads but I dont see that in his ISO. I actually see a lot of questions without conclusions early on which is a classic way to buy time as scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

day 7 ends in (expired on 2021-07-25 17:46:50)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Marci, deadline is coming :s

[marcistar]

AAAA IM A BIT SCARED ITS A LOT OF PRESSURE-

[Something_Smart]

Yup. It sucks.

I wouldn't really blame you for hammering me, S&M really dropped the ball there. But I do think it is solvable.

[marcistar]

what if i vote ssbm_kyouko for the memes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I dont think anyone's going to be mad if you get it wrong tbh. I know I'm not, but once I saw S&M flip I was happy with this game and the actual outcome of it doesnt matter to me. I do hope you side with me on this though. It's a shame when scum are allowed to coast to a win. It hurts everyone more when that happens.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Make it a dank one

[ssbm_Kyouko]

what if i vote ssbm_kyouko for the memes

Make it a dank one

[marcistar]

I dont think anyone's going to be mad if you get it wrong tbh. I know I'm not, but once I saw S&M flip I was happy with this game and the actual outcome of it doesnt matter to me. I do hope you side with me on this though. It's a shame when scum are allowed to coast to a win. It hurts everyone more when that happens.

huh, why would u be happy with smokes flip? if they were around it wouldve made it so much easier