mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[mastina]

If limit is scum someone is definitely bussing here but none of the pushes feel like bussing so limit is probably just flipping town here.

Counterpoint; could it perhaps be that the reason so many counterwagons to Limit are cropping up be due to the fact that scum really don't want a Limit wagon to go through and are desperate to find a wagon on someone,

anyone

, for it to not?

Attempts to wagon Bingle (who admittedly could be scum with a fairly decent chance but actually believe it or not I have a stronger scumread on TLDNE than I do Bingle, surprisingly enough, so if there's a town between the two slots and a scum between the two slots I'd be more inclined to think the scum as Limit than Bingle even though I am fully aware both have a good chance to be scum).

Attempts to wagon Fairy Circle (who admittedly could be scum especially if Bingle isn't although I would say this would be weird--Bingle if scum with Limit could feasibly be a wagon scum would prefer if Bingle wasn't lying about zero pain potions in spite of him being scum, meaning if Bingle+Limit were scum and if Bingle had no pain potions, scum would prefer Bingle > Limit as the lim...but Fairy Circle vs. Limit has no such incentive meaning that it makes no sense for scum to wagon Fairy Circle if Fairy Circle were scum with TLDNE).

Attempts, successful to a fair degree, to wagon RCEnigma.

Attempts to wagon T3, with some success.

I think there's been people giving ideas to wagon Dwlee or Norwee although I don't think those attempts are as successful as the above two examples.

I get that the resistance to a Limit elimination is not all scum. Town can be wrong and town even if right can get paranoid, thinking "there's a lack of reliable resistance" or something like that, thinking that no counterwagon which has stuck could be a clearing factor for Limit (which I argue is backwards and that a lack of a sticking counterwagon to Limit is actually evidence that they're scum but I digress).

But I keep looking at all of the counterwagons rising, most of them with lackluster logic and reasoning and something of an air of desperation to them, and I can't help but think, "while town not having good direction can be a part of this, this also has to have scum influence behind it". And that's one of the reasons why I want a Limit elimination.

I think the reasons for Limit to be scum are good, and the reasons for Limit to not be scum are lackluster, and that a Limit flip regardless of their alignment sheds more light on the alignment of all the players by giving us a much better understanding of the gamestate for all of D2 and that with their death, we will have a far better grasp of town vs. scum going into the night and tomorrow.

Now, I can actually explain some of the "Limit-town means x, Limit-scum means y" logic, but given the gamestate right now, one of the reasons I want to stave off doing this and have been saying "I will reveal this on D3" is that honestly: I don't want to do the massive amount of theorywork, theorycrafting, hypothesizing, analysis, for whichever alignment Limit isn't. I want to save the time/effort involved and cut it in half and do all of it after the fact, aided by the information from any flips we get on N2.

I do have a decent mental draft of it in my head. It's not rock-solid, it's not something concrete, but it's something I genuinely believe would be the best for the gamestate and I can explain more...
...On D3.

Also pagetopping this.

[mastina]

It is XLO if there is damage done on three town, scum have 3 pain pots, no town jk/doc a no target, AND no scum die tonight. If we eliminate someone who has been pained, it drops the odds of one or three. Scum having three pain pots split between their members remaining isn’t a sure thing by any means.

This is another reason for the Limit elimination btw. And another reason I've focused on {Limit, Bingle, Fairy Circle}.

TLDNE is the best elimination for the game and it's not just because I think that they are the slot with the highest chance of being scum; they are also the slot I genuinely think gives the town the most information regardless of their flip (with Bingle and Fairy Circle a close second/third) in that regard as well as one of the slots we lose the least from eliminating (in that it removes a potential scum wincon even if they are town).

[Dwlee99]

I'll intent to hammer

[NorwegianboyEE]

Mastina i know you weren’t keen on theorycrafting pre-flip, but do you think T3 is highly likely to be town if Limit!scum based on this push here?

[mastina]

Why are they scum other than
OMG SHITTY REACTION TO PUSH
and
LACK OF PRESENCE
and
OVERREACTION
it's pretty clear that lilith isn't kept up with the game, imo and what kind of information can they even give, given they have barely any interactions with anyone in the game?

All of those things individually would be signs of a slot being scum--none of them damning on their own, sure. Any single one of them in of itself wouldn't be reason enough to scumread the slot, but all three together are, while not hard-damning the slot, still condemning. The slot has a lot of reasons to be scum.

So the counterpoint I ask you; what reasons does the slot have to be town? I've seen falling for the AtE as a reason to townread them (when the AtE is plainly nai), I've seen "people are pushing them and I think the pushes on them make them town", I've seen "stale gamestate", but I've not seen any good reason for them to be town.

I do admit it's possible they could be town. But the evidence does genuinely point to them being scum more likely than not to me.

[Green Cap Boys]

hm. @s_s, i remember you in the jk9 game saying that scum!you doesn't get out of pressure or something along those lines, do you think what you were doing here is within your scumrange? why/why not?

-D

[NorwegianboyEE]

I think i’m starting to feel settled on the idea of Limit!scum.
Mastina and GCB are asking a lot of legit questions and S_S feels like they are struggling to get out of the PoE box but just can’t.

[mastina]

May I receive a quick de-brief before I attempt to immerse myself in the details?

We're doing a massclaim with your life on the line, so we need you to fullclaim right now or eat the elimination.

[mastina]

Mastina i know you weren’t keen on theorycrafting pre-flip, but do you think T3 is highly likely to be town if Limit!scum based on this push here?

While I've twangs of paranoia here and there, largely due to not knowing what T3's scumgame is like and seeing his play as possible scum:
T3 is one of the slots who I have basically one of the strongest townreads on in the game, honestly.

In terms of reads, I think he's second only to you (with you second only to GCB).

That's without flips.

If there were a TLDNE scumflip, I would in fact think him town. I'm not quite sure if I'd locktown him, but he'd probably increase in towniness to be even more town than you. Not quite as town as GCB but still insanely town overall.

[Fairy Circle]

Hello fellow citizens, I am here because I heard there was beautiful people and fine refreshments.

May I receive a quick de-brief before I attempt to immerse myself in the details?

Braum is the better guardian.

-Malefleacent.

[Fairy Circle]

Hello fellow citizens, I am here because I heard there was beautiful people and fine refreshments.

May I receive a quick de-brief before I attempt to immerse myself in the details?

Braum is the better guardian.

-Malefleacent.

[Fairy Circle]

Why are they scum other than
OMG SHITTY REACTION TO PUSH
and
LACK OF PRESENCE
and
OVERREACTION
it's pretty clear that lilith isn't kept up with the game, imo and what kind of information can they even give, given they have barely any interactions with anyone in the game?

All of those things individually would be signs of a slot being scum--none of them damning on their own, sure. Any single one of them in of itself wouldn't be reason enough to scumread the slot, but all three together are, while not hard-damning the slot, still condemning. The slot has a lot of reasons to be scum.

So the counterpoint I ask you; what reasons does the slot have to be town? I've seen falling for the AtE as a reason to townread them (when the AtE is plainly nai), I've seen "people are pushing them and I think the pushes on them make them town", I've seen "stale gamestate", but I've not seen any good reason for them to be town.

I do admit it's possible they could be town. But the evidence does genuinely point to them being scum more likely than not to me.

The emotion reads as genuine to me, I'll not say more but I have noticed patterns and as soon as I say it people will change it up. It's also why my AtE is so effective.

Lilith has been reacting "badly" to a lot of things and the defeatism is honestly the biggest pinger for me rn, S_S seems to be trying to engage and interact more.

MH fucking sucks, and as someone with a decent list of MH stuff I can relate to liliths mood quite a bit, again it comes down to patterns, and you should ALWAYS assume good faith when thats involved. For example I'm currently crashing on my painkillers and in a hell of a lot of pain, if I take them I'm going to get stoned pretty damn quick and probably pass out, they is good stuff. Can't take them for long though because the nausea gets worse.

I genuinely think TLDNE is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy here, and I think scum are pushing this.

-Malefleacent.

[NorwegianboyEE]

What is MH?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Oh is it mental health?

I refuse to consider anyone as more or less likely scum based on that. I think they are scummy and i’m not going to reconsider because they are taking medications or whatever, they can still be scum.

[NorwegianboyEE]

you should ALWAYS assume good faith when thats involved.

You should treat it as NAI.
Not necessarily "good faith" as even if there is an real condition hindering their play it may be used as an excuse.
For example if i rolled scum and got an huge headache, then i get accused for playing too passively to be town. I can claim it’s because i have an headache and not post for 5 days. Sure i’d do the same as town but is it "good faith" in that scenario?

[T3]

Like, if my plan was to say that Norwee was fluffing, then presumably the idea would be respond to "he isn't doing nothing" with "actually, he's fluffing". If nobody responded that way (unlikely), I wouldn't have to have another excuse prepared.

-S

This is expecting you put a lot of thought in your post.

[Dwlee99]

So can I hammer now

[NorwegianboyEE]

Can’t speak for the others, but i certainly wouldn’t mind if you did.

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Limit
Mastina convinced me this is the best flip regardless of alignment so flip time

[NorwegianboyEE]

Oh no, none of Dwlee/T3/Norwee was the elimination.
Titus is probably fuming in the dead thread.

[Green Cap Boys]

I'll intent to hammer

VOTE: Limit
Mastina convinced me this is the best flip regardless of alignment so flip time

tldne didn't even post between these two posts... also i love asking a question with obvious intent to keep sorting them but nope

if they're red then yay, but if they're green i'm maybe just deadsheeping titus tomorrow lole

-D

[Dwlee99]

Mastina had convinced me before I posted 2352

If this is green imagine blaming me

[Dwlee99]

Spoiler:

votey 2.2.2.2.2.2.2 !

The Limit Does Not Exist (5):

Green Cap Boys

, Aristeia, mastina, T3, NorwegianboyEE

T3 (3):

Dwlee99, The Limit Does Not Exist, Fairy Circle

Fairy Circle (2):

RCEnigma, Bingle

not voting (0):

with 10 alive, it takes 6 to cause someone to fall into a swamp full of friendly bugs. day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-08-29 21:20:00)

modorator notes

• poton

Wow that sure is wacky

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

GG

-S

[Dwlee99]

Scum claim?