mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5


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Post Post #3100 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:25 am

Post by mastina »

In post 3083, Aristeia wrote:They have the motive
That's the thing though--they
didn't
have the motive.

Say Titus was right about T3/Norwee/Dwlee being the scumteam.
Okay, she was right--so what?
Nobody was listening to her. Nobody was buying what she was selling. Not. a. single. player. was sheeping her. Not a single player believed her. Nobody. Not a single person. was interested in following her. Nobody was swayed by her logic. Nobody was convinced she was even close to right.

Why would the scumteam pile on en masse onto Titus when she was not garnering support? An elimination can often serve as a good way to martyr a slot and make people sheep their reads.

Titus was not a threat on D1. She was harmless in spite of in your scenario having a hypothetically correct solve. Because nobody thought she was right. Everyone thought she was crazy, moonlogicky, or even scum. Nobody was taking her scumreads seriously.

Your argument might have merit if Titus had momentum behind her reads--but she didn't. Quite the opposite. Do you know who we were wagoning before Titus? Bingle. ta vera/RCE. The Limit Does Not Exist. Fairy Circle who got to L-1.

Dwlee was never at risk. They never got more than two votes.
T3 was never at risk. He never got more than two votes.
Norwee was never at risk. He never had a lasting wagon.

Titus did not have any support for her solve.

Why would the scum derail the momentum behind wagons driven by town on town (Fairy Circle was town; Bingle was town), only to forcefully drive through a wagon driven by scum on town?

They actually lack an incentive for it.

Because forcing a wagon with all three scum on it to go through does the opposite of helping them; it actively hurts them.
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Post Post #3101 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:26 am

Post by Aristeia »

In post 3100, mastina wrote:Say Titus was right about T3/Norwee/Dwlee being the scumteam.
Okay, she was right--so what?
Nobody was listening to her. Nobody was buying what she was selling. Not. a. single. player. was sheeping her. Not a single player believed her. Nobody. Not a single person. was interested in following her. Nobody was swayed by her logic. Nobody was convinced she was even close to right.

Why would the scumteam pile on en masse onto Titus when she was not garnering support? An elimination can often serve as a good way to martyr a slot and make people sheep their reads.
Because if she was alive today she'd be voting for them.

Because when you're scum and someone is right about their solve, the best way to shut them up is to vote them off the island so they can't talk anymore.

Because this town has literally ignored Titus's solve even after she was shown to be green.

Why let her become influential when you can just make her dead?

Why not eliminate someone who is voting against you?
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Post Post #3102 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:27 am

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

Eww.
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Post Post #3103 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:28 am

Post by Aristeia »

In post 3100, mastina wrote:Dwlee was never at risk. They never got more than two votes.
T3 was never at risk. He never got more than two votes.
Norwee was never at risk. He never had a lasting wagon.
They're not at risk because they've killed the people who were suspecting them by voting them off.

If titus/SS were alive today they'd be voting with me and norwe scum would be dead
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Post Post #3104 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:29 am

Post by Aristeia »

In post 3100, mastina wrote:Titus did not have any support for her solve.

Why would the scum derail the momentum behind wagons driven by town on town (Fairy Circle was town; Bingle was town), only to forcefully drive through a wagon driven by scum on town?

They actually lack an incentive for it.

Because forcing a wagon with all three scum on it to go through does the opposite of helping them; it actively hurts them.
If you can't see the incentive for the scum to kill the people who are suspecting them and leaving townies alive who suspect other townies then you frankly don't know how to play mafia as scum.

That's literally Mafia 101.

Leave the townies who suspect other townies alive so they KEEP fighting with other townies and you don't have to do much

KILL the townies who suspect YOU or your team so they are dead and don't push/vote you later.
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Post Post #3105 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:30 am

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

In post 3101, Aristeia wrote:Because when you're scum and someone is right about their solve, the best way to shut them up is to vote them off the island so they can't talk anymore.
You know, even if someone knows a town is tunneling them, they might just vote them out because their reads actually hurt the game and it’s on some level almost a good thing to vote them out.
Titus was that sort of person, and no. We should never sheep them.
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Post Post #3106 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:31 am

Post by Aristeia »

In post 3105, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 3101, Aristeia wrote:Because when you're scum and someone is right about their solve, the best way to shut them up is to vote them off the island so they can't talk anymore.
You know, even if someone knows a town is tunneling them, they might just vote them out because their reads actually hurt the game and it’s on some level almost a good thing to vote them out.
Titus was that sort of person, and no. We should never sheep them.

the goal of the town is to vote out scum.

the goal of the scum is to vote out townies who suspect them

it's not rocket science
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Post Post #3107 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:32 am

Post by Aristeia »

Mastina the motive for why Norw/T3 yeeted Titus/SS on D1/D2 is staring you in the face
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Post Post #3108 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:32 am

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

Just give up already.
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Post Post #3109 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:33 am

Post by Aristeia »

I want to be able to tell Titus/SS/Lilith I tried my best when I apologize to them for losing
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Post Post #3110 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:38 am

Post by Aristeia »

I wish I had a way to explain things to you that could show you how I see the world Mastina

I really do.

But it's really hard for me because it just looks so obvious to me and I can't seem to reach you.

The world NorwegianBoy is selling you is that I'm scum with RCE/Datisi and both of my scum partners have decided to ghost the game and stop playing while I am the lone scum still talking.

Do you really think a scum team at Elo that has skated through and is on the verge of winning would look like that?

Two players who've given up on the game and a third player who's clearly not having any fun?

The world I am telling you about has Norw/T3 who have openwolf shitpushed to death 2 straight townies who have suspected them and are happily cruising to a win by going for the third shitpush in a row.

They are literally gloating in the thread and telling me to give up and trying to demoralize me.

They know how desperate I am and how I feel hopeless because I'm the only person on town side who knows the truth and is still playing

RCE gave up a long time ago.

They are on the verge of winning.



Which story feels more real to you mastina?
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Post Post #3111 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:40 am

Post by mastina »

In post 3092, Aristeia wrote:Think about it Mastina, you said it yourself. You are basically impossible to push for scum and you can 1v1 anyone at Elo.
So why did the scum not shoot you with a poison potion? Why did they keep you alive the entire time? Because you've been in Norwe's pocket the ENTIRE GAME and his entire plan is to keep you there and if you don't change your mind HE WINS
I will admit that if Norwee is scum, this is true and he pulled it off perfectly.

However.

I genuinely don't think Norwee acts that way as scum.

I did, after all, come into today already with a fresh start in mind. I did a hard-reset on my reads. And Norwee I feel would have known that I would do that. He wasn't even my top townread, and T3 wasn't my top townread, anyway. Yesterday my top townread was Green Cap Boys. How would Norwee be able to predict that in lylo, GCB would go from my #1 strongest townread to my overall #3 suspect? Fuck, it wasn't even like my first thought upon daystart was GCB was scum as I had Dwlee as a huuuuuuge scumspect in my opening post.

How would Norwee be able to predict that when I did my reassessment, that I'd come to the conclusion that all of {Norwee, T3, Dwlee} are town? If your scumteam proposed were true, it'd only take me being right on ONE of the three to completely wreck the scum because if I entered a 1v1 with scum, they'd lose. And notably I almost entered a 1v1 with Dwlee at the start of today!

Your narrative is a good one. It is a fine argument. But it is also an imperfect one. A flawed one. It requires Norwee to have either nigh-omniscient knowledge with a perfect prediction of the future or god-tiered luck in having lucked out or some combination of the two where he made a plan and hoped for it to work and it did.

Norwee saw me explain my philosophy on tunneling last game: I drop the tunnel when I think it is necessary to have done so. Coming into today, from seeing my D2 posts, it wasn't going to be hard for him to predict I was not in fact going to tunnel Bingle/FC's slots and was in fact going to reevaluate. That made me a risk, because it meant that if I reevaluated a scum slot as scum, and entered a 1v1 with it, it'd be hella-scary. And Norwee is already very very scared of me as scum given how thoroughly I caught him in Open Draft Mafia.

I wasn't even sure he was town here. I pointed out multiple times how my scumdar involving Norwee was broken, that I was getting static, that it was hard to lock him down. Why would Norwee take the gamble that I'd come to the wrong conclusion of him being town on a read reset (which I would obviously be doing after a Limit death)? And even IF Norwee would take that risk...why would he take it three times over, with T3 and Dwlee? T3 is reasonable enough as I stated a townread there prior to the end of D2, but Dwlee? Dwlee I did not townread for good reason. Why would Norwee risk me tunneling on Dwlee?

A Norwee-T3-Dwlee scumteam leaving me untouched is taking the ultimate gamble. It is gambling on me
not
tunneling on any of them. Which they had no way of knowing and every reason to suspect I would.

It's not impossible! They COULD do it. With a combination of desperation, planning, and pure sheer luck on their side, of hoping, praying, that I didn't lock onto any of them. But it requires an incredibly huge chain of events that are gamble after gamble, unlikely thing on top of unlikely thing, to pile up one after another after another.

It's not impossible, sure.

But basically all the evidence says otherwise.
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Post Post #3112 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:41 am

Post by Aristeia »

I don't want to be this serious

I wanted to be happy and bubbly and post gifs and have fun.

but this is the end of the road and we're so close to losing.

What am I supposed to do Mastina?

Am I supposed to just give up and not care and let down Titus/SS/Lilith and just let Norwe/T3 waltz into the easiest win of their lives?

I don't know what more I can do for you.
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Post Post #3113 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:43 am

Post by Aristeia »

In post 3111, mastina wrote:It requires Norwee to have either nigh-omniscient knowledge with a perfect prediction of the future or god-tiered luck in having lucked out or some combination of the two where he made a plan and hoped for it to work and it did.
no it doesn't

all it requires is for him to have pocketed you - which he did by insisting over and over again that you were locktown town.

He knew that was enough to pocket you solidly and it worked.
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Post Post #3114 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:44 am

Post by Aristeia »

In post 3111, mastina wrote:A Norwee-T3-Dwlee scumteam leaving me untouched is taking the ultimate gamble. It is gambling on me not tunneling on any of them. Which they had no way of knowing and every reason to suspect I would.
they would be gambling on two things actually.

Either

(1) a townie would vote you, then they could win by quickelimming you

or

(2) you would be incorrect in Elo and they could pocket you and steer you into town.
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Post Post #3115 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:47 am

Post by Aristeia »

In post 3111, mastina wrote:I genuinely don't think Norwee acts that way as scum.
I have no doubt that your belief is genuine.

but it's not going to mean much post-game when norwe is taking his victory lap.

I'm only asking you recognize that other people have their opinions too and they also deserve a chance.

Titus was sure it was Norw/t3/dwlee

Doesn't she deserve a chance to win too?

SS/Lilith were sure it was Norw/T3 on D2.

Don't they deserve a seat at the table as well?



I know you need to be true to yourself and vote according to your beliefs but there are also other people playing this game as well.
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Post Post #3116 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:48 am

Post by Aristeia »

In post 3111, mastina wrote:But basically all the evidence says otherwise.

No

All the evidence says that Norw/T3 are scum together.

They've pushed and killed two townies who suspected them.

They are pushing for a third to win now

the evidence is in the votes and the flips.

Not in empty words and theatre.
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Post Post #3117 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:57 am

Post by Aristeia »

I haven't slept much because of this game and I need to get some things done today.

Thanks for listening Mastina.

If you have any further questions for me please just write them down in one post and I'll answer them when I have some time tonight.
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Post Post #3118 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:59 am

Post by mastina »

In post 3097, Aristeia wrote:You dont think pain potions are MORE VALUABLE now that we have CLEARLY DRAWN SIDES post ELO standoff?
Considering the game immediately ends in a scum win if the scum have 50% of the votes (which they do in 3-3)? Pain potions are currently worthless unless we hit scum. So no. Pain potions are NOT more valuable in lylo. They had their highest value on N2.

There's also the fact that, near as I can tell, nobody claimed to have pain potioned Fairy Circle N2. We know it couldn't have been the Bingle-slot as the Bingle-slot had no potions. And it wasn't me because I pain potioned the Bingle-slot. So that means someone used a pain potion on Fairy Circle, but did not claim it.

RCE claimed to have pain potioned one of TLDNE/Bingle/Fairy Circle N1--it
could
have been him, if he had a second pain potion, but in that case he'd be scum.
Dwlee claimed to have pain potioned RCEnigma--it
could
be Dwlee if Dwlee was lying about pain potioning RCE, but this is an inherently risky claim to make because there's not one but two chances of being guiltied if someone harmographied either RCE or Fairy Circle. So it's unlikely that they were lying.
T3 pain potioned The Limit Does Not Exist on N1--it
could
be T3 if he has two pain potions and pain potioned two nights in a row but chose to lie about pain potioning N2 while telling the truth N1, but this seems unlikely.

That leaves the possible pain potioning of Fairy Circle N2 to be {Green Cap Boys/Datisi, NorwegianboyEE, Aristeia}.

Admittedly, Norwee has not claimed any N2 action as far as I can see from an iso in terms of pain potioning. (Norwee may have claimed but if so I missed it with my search of 'pain'.)
And admittedly, GCB/Datisi claimed to have not used any N2 action which means they are definitely possible as a culprit.

But my mind as to which of the three possible slots pain potioned Fairy Circle N2 immediately hops to the one who claims to have a pain potion still and did nothing N2 with it.
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Post Post #3119 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:06 am

Post by mastina »

In post 3098, Aristeia wrote:Everything you say is based in your assumption that norwee is town.
On the contrary.
Everything you say is based in the assumption Norwee is scum.

I have pointed out multiple reasons for why I believe him to not be scum, and asked you to explain why he would be scum here.

But you're continuing to spin the same narrative ad naseum, a narrative that flies in the face of the facts that I've been reading and investigating to see for myself.

I'm perfectly willing to accept I could be wrong--if there were logic that supported that I was.

But the logic isn't saying I'm wrong. It's saying that occam's razor suggests the simplest answer is that Norwee-T3-Dwlee is not in fact some sort of mastermind/uber-lucky scumteam and is in fact not the scumteam at all.
In post 3098, Aristeia wrote:Who is more
likely
to omgus back and kill people?
Depends on the players involved and their history but in a playerlist filled with players who have played with each other? Town. Because town who have played with town disproportionately hold an expectation for the other town to have a correct read on them and will be naturally suspicious of someone who does NOT have the correct read on them when they think that player
should
.

After all--I thought Flea was suspect for not townbinning me, and I'm town when Flea was town in spite of Flea having not townbinned me. I explicitly did a form of OMGUS on them, as town. So if I did that as town, why couldn't Norwee/Titus have done it towards each other as town? Bingle and Fairy Circle did it as town, OMGUSing each other, so what makes the Bingle-FC town-town TvT different from Norwee-Titus?

THAT is something you're NOT answering.
In post 3098, Aristeia wrote:Do you see anything in Norwe's iso that suggests he was trying to sort Titus/SS in good faith?
A whole metric fuckton, actually!
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Post Post #3120 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:13 am

Post by mastina »

In post 3099, Aristeia wrote:You know you can be wrong right?
Sure I can be wrong.
But the evidence I have isn't saying I'm wrong.

There's like 80-90% evidence supporting my conclusions and pointing towards it being the most likely answer.

And only 10-20% which suggests I
might
just
possibly
be wrong.

The balance of probability vs. possibility overwhelmingly says: the probability is that Norwee is town. There's a
possibility
that Norwee is scum. But overwhelmingly, that possibility requires larger leaps in more questionable logic with more assumptions and bigger reaches and more fabrication of a narrative to make function.

Whereas the probability that Norwee is town basically speaks for itself.
In post 3099, Aristeia wrote:Just give Titus a chance
Give SS and Lilith a chance.
They deserve that at least no?
They've poured so much into this game screaming that Norwee/T3 are scumbags. Do they get any say in this game's outcome at all?
Sure they deserve a chance.

Also deserving a chance though is that you're also leaving out how SS/lilith's largest scumread for most of the game was not in fact Norwee--it was Green Cap Boys/Datisi. And they deserve the chance for me to listen to
that
read and the conclusion it'd lead me to.

For every post of Limit saying Norwee-sus I can point to 2-3 saying GCB/Datisi are sus, and it's not like the Norwee suspicion replaced their GCB/Datisi suspicion. In spite of how Norwee and GCB/Datisi can't realistically be a scumteam.
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Post Post #3121 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:23 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

See the thing is that unless mastina is scum I'm p sure RCE has to be scum because associatives say no norwee/dats team. So we have

Norwee/T3
RCE/Aristeia

With left over mastina and datisi. So if mastina is town then it has to be RCE/Ari unless scum is voting scum here. I forget why Ari/norwee isn't a pair but the only world I can see RCE being scum is either the Ari/Norwee world or the Norwee/Mastina world. I think I'm pretty obviously town by associatives so I think these make sense to everyone
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #3122 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:29 am

Post by mastina »

In post 3101, Aristeia wrote:Because if she was alive today she'd be voting for them.
So the scumteam decided to eliminate her D1...rather than use pain potions to eliminate her which they could justify as being used on a scummy town...and decided that this was enough of a priority to make necessary on D1 rather than eliminating her N1...or eliminating her on D2...and didn't think they could justify killing her on N2 either...and predicted that D3 would be lylo where Titus would be voting one of them?

Again--not impossible. But that kind of narrative requires an incredible stretch in logic ignoring all the other possible solutions scum had. Scum could have pain potioned her and either truthfully claimed to have done so as pain potioning a player they thought to be scum, or lied and just not claimed the pain potions on her, or waited and hoped town pain potioned her, or hoped that she changed her solve (Titus is not someone so set in her ways that once she has a three-man solve she will lock it in for the entirety of the game), or hoped that the town eliminated her, or hoped that lylo came later, or deliberately engineered a delay in lylo.

All of those are simpler solutions for dealing with Titus than dogpiling onto a wagon on her and brute forcing a plurality elimination on her.
In post 3101, Aristeia wrote:Why let her become influential when you can just make her dead?
This is fair, but why does the method of death which comes to mind as scum in your eyes "dogpile her on D1 and let plurality kill her", a method prone to failure and which is highly inconspicuous, rather than any of the much simpler methods?

I guarantee you as scum I've never had the thought to dogpile onto a town player to eliminate them via plurality because of fearing their accuracy.
As a start it requires scum to actively think about and weaponize the plurality mechanic, something most scumteams are not going to think about at least on D1.
And then it requires them to not think about how inconspicuous three scum could be when dogpiling said townie.
And then it requires them to think that they will actually succeed on this, which there is no guarantee of because their dogpile could be overpowered fairly easily.
And then it requires them to also not think of much simpler methods of dealing with Titus.

It requires them to have thought of one very very very specific plan, ignored all of the possible risks and failure methods of this plan, commit to it, hope/pray it works out, and not to have thought of simpler more effective more universal methods of dealing with the threat of an accurate townie. It requires them to weaponize a game-specific mechanic (plurality) and to think that this was the only solution and have full confidence in it working.

Why is it that you think the scum thought "Titus is right about us, we must dogpile her and rely on plurality to eliminate her on D1", a solution that requires a
very very
specific mindset and set of risk/reward analysis, rather than any of the far far more obvious more universal methods/solutions/strategies?

I feel like I've said it a bunch but I will continue saying it as long as it is pertinent to say:
Every piece of 'evidence' suggesting Norwee-T3-Dwlee as a scumteam requires them to have collectively either god-tier luck, god-tier planning, or some high combination thereof where they planned things out well and then with these plans that have high chances of failure, just so happened to have lucked out big time with them actually ending up working out in spite of all the failure conditions to their plans.

It requires us to live in a very very specific, contrived, convoluted world, where the scumteam did precisely one thing that happened to be the perfect thing they needed to do.

Whereas for them to be town requires just the use of looking at which idea is the simplest and keeping things stupidly simple.
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Dwlee99
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Post Post #3123 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:32 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 3121, Dwlee99 wrote:RCE being scum
This part needs a not
I prefer they, thanks :)
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NorwegianboyEE
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Post Post #3124 (ISO) » Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:33 am

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

Also nobody took Titus seriously so why would an theoretic team of me/T3/Dwlee be so afraid of Titus when nobody cared about her reads?
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