Open 828 | The Brethren Coalition | Game Over!

[cyrus62]

Shakes head .@save the dragons did you not see what I said I'm scum this time. I full heartedly belive pav is town despite him not wanting to work with me to help me find town the rest on my list is mostly long shots I may add save the dragon. But I won't add ssbm . I may remove nathann and add my self as well. No one seems to be wanting to show faith. I'm very very ticked off I wanted to be able to win in day 1 so I had barging rights.

[Pavowski]

Yet

Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.

Spoiler:

Man, what a game that was. Think we killed seven or eight people in under 12 hours. Poor Pooky couldn't keep up with the kills and elims and had to give up doing the flavor (which was delicious)

[Pavowski]

i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia

We have 9 players, not 7. Townslip? Hmm.

[Save The Dragons]

how is that a townslip

[Pavowski]

Seems like a mistake town would make if taking a pessimistic view. Not 100% sure it's a townslip tho and not just a derp slip, hence the hmm

[Save The Dragons]

i'm having trouble seeing how town would make that mistake over someone independent of alignment

[Save The Dragons]

not sure if i'm just paranoid but HURT: pav i need a moment

[Farren]

why

See post 207.

[Save The Dragons]

seems pretty NAI especially if someone is aware of their meta

could also just be a complete lie

[Farren]

i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia

We have 9 players, not 7. Townslip? Hmm.

That's either NAI or scumslip, I'd say.

Thinking "5 of 7" as opposed to "4 of 6" ... if you're Town, you don't have to figure yourself out. But if you're phrasing it from a strictly neutral POV - from the whole of the Town - who can't clear any individual within it - then 5 of 7 works. Given the wording, I'd lean towards the neutral.

Adding the "2 of" part ... yeah, that doesn't tell me anything.

[Farren]

seems pretty NAI especially if someone is aware of their meta

could also just be a complete lie

Breaking one's meta - even when aware of it - is easier said than done. Especially as scum. It's not impossible, but it is challenging. Especially over the long haul.

The complete lie is certainly possible - although if it is a lie, it's one that could be disproven with a solid meta-dive. Would be pretty risky at this point - it's early enough in the game that there's plenty of time to metadive her and disprove it, if it's false.

[cyrus62]

the best part is when im town i get scum read. but when i am town read no matter how many times i say im scum it doesnt draw any votes.

[redtea]

@mod I never healed Farren

That's showing me healing you, not you healing me.

Highlighting this to make sure Hakai sees it.

[Pavowski]

Yeeaaaahhhh, I'm gonna take the leap. HEAL: Cyrus

That should make my 5, for the moment:
Cyrus
Hakai
STD
Yessirree
and myself

And my "not convinced they're town pile" as
Enchant
Farren
Nathann
Kyouko

I think I feel ... okay about that.

[Save The Dragons]

That should make my 5, for the moment:
Cyrus
Hakai
STD
Yessirree
and myself

talk to me about yessiree and hakai

[Hakai]

Won't heal ebbs only person to ask to be in the five like 3 post why should we trust your town.

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment. easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.

And if you're scum then the coalition fails.

something about ssbm's posts bother me

Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.

The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.

Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.

Implying I will feel town later?

VOTE: kyo
This is literally shading someone over their choice of words.

Also I'm pondering hakai's comment on Cyrus scumrange. Going to check back to owner's market blitz. It had a similar town-finding mechanic where players elected a market owner as well as voted for an elim on D1.

Slightly +town for this observation.

If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.

Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:

0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.

And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.

Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.

While this is a valid mech observation it also relies on you being town.

@mod I never healed Farren

That's showing me healing you, not you healing me.

Oops.

HURT: Hakai
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko

Why?

Yet

Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.

This observation seems more likely to come from town.
VOTE: Nathann/v]

seems pretty NAI especially if someone is aware of their meta

could also just be a complete lie

Breaking one's meta - even when aware of it - is easier said than done. Especially as scum. It's not impossible, but it is challenging. Especially over the long haul.

The complete lie is certainly possible - although if it is a lie, it's one that could be disproven with a solid meta-dive. Would be pretty risky at this point - it's early enough in the game that there's plenty of time to metadive her and disprove it, if it's false.

It's not a lie, I've played many games with her. The only problem is that scum Kyo doesn't really get scumread unless you know her meta.
Thinking about it, I actually have a lot of experience with everyone in this playerlist except yessiree and Farren.

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: Nathann/v]

what's up with this

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: kyouko

[Hakai]

Typo.
VOTE: nathann
pedit: VOTE: kyo
I can also do this. I scumread Nathann slightly more but this wagon has more traction.

[Save The Dragons]

no i mean why did you vote nathann

[Hakai]

Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.

[Save The Dragons]

nathann who's on your ideal coalition

[Pavowski]

That should make my 5, for the moment:
Cyrus
Hakai
STD
Yessirree
and myself

talk to me about yessiree and hakai

Sure thing, man.

Vibes on yessirree, but that's my weakest of the 5 I think.

Hakai is townreading Cyrus way harder than I think he's earned, which is either very genuine or big scum equity. I don't think there's actually scum equity there, though, so...

[cyrus62]

I might remove nathann and add ssbm but if the 5 fail I will death tunnel her.

[Farren]

Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.

The only two posts I see that you could be referring to are 76 (the one with the self-hurt) and 129 (answering why when someone asked). Neither of those look to me like they're deliberately trying to call attention to themselves. The former - "because cyrus asked me to" - I could see as a possible attempt to gain townreads, although given the follow-up questions he asked, I don't think that was his motive.