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[MathBlade]

That’s the thing. I am not. You’re pushing that.

I put out what I believe to be the most likely theory with evidence for peer review.
Peers review if and if it’s wrong it gets rejected then I build another theory.
I do the same for others. That’s how the game works.

[MathBlade]

What you’re doing is well crafted Ate nothing more

[Frogsterking]

I think you might want to work on another theory this looks TvT to me.

[MathBlade]

I think you might want to work on another theory this looks TvT to me.

Why?

[Frogsterking]

448

The only players I've seen who are manipulative enough to craft AtE like that are extremely low in agreeableness.

[MathBlade]

448

The only players I've seen who are manipulative enough to craft AtE like that are extremely low in agreeableness.

Tbf I don’t think that’s ate. Seems like just results crafted from a website. Something iirc called out that as busy work. Do you have another reason you think she’s town besides emotion? I don’t like emotion in reads as anyone can do it so almost all of it is NAI.

[Frogsterking]

448

The only players I've seen who are manipulative enough to craft AtE like that are extremely low in agreeableness.

Tbf I don’t think that’s ate. Seems like just results crafted from a website. Something iirc called out that as busy work. Do you have another reason you think she’s town besides emotion? I don’t like emotion in reads as anyone can do it so almost all of it is NAI.

I'm saying that you would expect maybe someone who is in like the bottom 5th percentile of agreeableness to craft AtE like that. MAYBE with lots of practice. It's not a subtle difference. Even if the results are inaccurate and overestimated Ari's agreeableness she comes off as agreeable in her play and is nowhere near the lowest percentiles.

I think the idea of dismissing her reaction as being well-crafted AtE is probabilistically unsound.

[Aristeia]

if I was scum I wouldn't be saying any of this to you because all it does is make you double down even more on the read.

I'm saying this because I am very tilted

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Andres

If Andres flips town I will come for you no holds barred

Because that wagon wasn’t pure

[Aristeia]

The case was good and then this interaction was a lot and looks TvT to me. UNVOTE: Ari

Unless someone comes in and says they've personally seen Ari play like this as scum I think Ari is town.

I am capable of very good AtE as mafia and this isn't even AtE.

This is just me being annoyed with how Mathblade plays town.

Which I would be even if I were mafia here being death-tunneled by him.

[MathBlade]

I still think you’re the most likely to be fair I am just testing a theory

[Aristeia]

Because that wagon wasn’t pure

You literally don't know this

[MathBlade]

Because that wagon wasn’t pure

You literally don't know this

This is correct. I don’t know this. It’s the most probable.

Lap flipped goon and went down without a fight or struggle,

So lap being bussed is much more probable than not

[MathBlade]

If Lap had flipped PR then I would look off wagon.

[Aristeia]

That's what infuriates me about your playstyle.

Because if that wagon is pure and you spend 3 mislims killing on it and then we lose, you will just be happy with the loss and say "ooh it was a unicorn pure wagon"

[Frogsterking]

The case was good and then this interaction was a lot and looks TvT to me. UNVOTE: Ari

Unless someone comes in and says they've personally seen Ari play like this as scum I think Ari is town.

I am capable of very good AtE as mafia and this isn't even AtE.

This is just me being annoyed with how Mathblade plays town.

Which I would be even if I were mafia here being death-tunneled by him.

When you say very good AtE do you mean that you'll AtE for multiple pages and bring up past games and stuff?

[MathBlade]

That's what infuriates me about your playstyle.

Because if that wagon is pure and you spend 3 mislims killing on it and then we lose, you will just be happy with the loss and say "ooh it was a unicorn pure wagon"

If it is pure then we’d likely know before three miselims as we’d have invests poke there and sort it out. That’s the thing with everyone focused on it we’d deduce if it’s right or not.

You and Andres are the only viable scum on the wagon. If neither of you are scum then it’s unicorn and off. You haven’t given a reason to think it’s pure when strategically it’s most likely not.

[Aristeia]

When you say very good AtE do you mean that you'll AtE for multiple pages and bring up past games and stuff?

This is my only completed scum game:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

you can read it for how I can use AtE as mafia.

[MathBlade]

https://forum.novelupdates.com/threads/ ... ry.141207/

You mock my play but it caught the top scum PR early and set us up for success.

Wake was scum and deviations occurred and Iso pocketed the thread neighbor.

[MathBlade]

Wake had deviated from what they do in their introduction.
It was statistically significant and I pushed them to elim.

So Andres and you are the most likely to be scum.

Until someone proposes someone else more likely there is no reason to change the theory

[Frogsterking]

I mean it's not 1/1000 that it's offwagon. What is it realistically like 20/100 offwagon?

And are there any qualitative descriptors that indicate an offwagon D1 scum hit? Are we encountering a rare but tangible pattern like folie a deux and denying it's existence because we're close minded and ignoring the effects of joint probability?

[Frogsterking]

When you say very good AtE do you mean that you'll AtE for multiple pages and bring up past games and stuff?

This is my only completed scum game:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

you can read it for how I can use AtE as mafia.

LOL it looks just like this.

VOTE: Ari

[MathBlade]

Every single mechanical probability I had there was accurate

The double voter was scum
Wake was outside of usual patterns

The realistic odds of a wagon not containing a scum are slim. It requires select 7 of 12 no scum.

Odds of first slot 9/12
Second 8/11
Third 7/10
6/11
5/10
4/9
3/8

Multiplying those together is around .22 percent

So 78% odds either Ari or Andres are scum.

[MathBlade]

Now if you really want to go through and make me demonstrate the math of the other game we can, but quite frankly I prefer logic as logic can’t lie

[MathBlade]

When I had to go subjective reads is when I fell to ISO’s emotional crap.