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[Aristeia]

like do the math

if i'm scum and house is town and i dont shoot him how do you elim me today?

[Aristeia]

do you think house is going to wake up today and decide to flip his read on me?

[Andresvmb]

okay, past the initial hatred of my life, what are we left with

if iv is scum who's bullshitting about his no-result, then the town is the disloyal weak nonsense, the n2 vig, and the named townie. this feels... it feels bad.

if iv is town, that means scum has to have some sorta action-stopping power. either ascetic or roleblocker (or something similar to it). if it were ascetic (with ari being it), then scum was betting a lot last night on iv checking ari, which would probably be a bad choice considering he found me the most suspicious.

if there's a blocker in play... we once again go back to our d2 dilemma.

I think that the second option is unlikely. Either IV is Scum, or the Scum acted to stop IV. If IV hit an Ascetic Scum, we’re so unlucky I don’t even want to think about it.

[Aristeia]

his entire iso all of day four was swearing up and down that I'm locktown and eliminating me ends the game and he spent all day insulting you for being a moron for wanting to eliminate me.

Do you really think he wakes up on Day 5 and says "nah that was just for show actually Ari is scum"

[MathBlade]

do you think house is going to wake up today and decide to flip his read on me?

I think if he lived he would. Because then he wouldn’t be confirmed because VT.

Combined with the lack of a result on you I think he’d change his read yeah.

[MathBlade]

okay, past the initial hatred of my life, what are we left with

if iv is scum who's bullshitting about his no-result, then the town is the disloyal weak nonsense, the n2 vig, and the named townie. this feels... it feels bad.

if iv is town, that means scum has to have some sorta action-stopping power. either ascetic or roleblocker (or something similar to it). if it were ascetic (with ari being it), then scum was betting a lot last night on iv checking ari, which would probably be a bad choice considering he found me the most suspicious.

if there's a blocker in play... we once again go back to our d2 dilemma.

I think that the second option is unlikely. Either IV is Scum, or the Scum acted to stop IV. If IV hit an Ascetic Scum, we’re so unlucky I don’t even want to think about it.

If Ari is ascetic scum you realize I really want your head right?

[Aristeia]

do you think house is going to wake up today and decide to flip his read on me?

I think if he lived he would. Because then he wouldn’t be confirmed because VT.

Combined with the lack of a result on you I think he’d change his read yeah.

Hard disagree. I doubt House ever changes his read on me.

[MathBlade]

The point is which dead Townie is right if I am not supposed to listen to myself

Is it Koba => Lap/IV/ wrong person, unlikely right
Frogger/Nero => Ari + Dat
Or House => Dat + Andres.

[Andresvmb]

Scum!Me shoots Mathblade 1000 times out of 1000 there.

Can you not just rely on this argument? I don’t think you have the greatest incentive to shoot House, other than so you can scream nonstop that you don’t do this and to trust you. So it’s somewhat WIFOMy. It was unclear to me what the hell kind of role House could possibly have if he actually had a role, but a Scum you might not have wanted to take the chance. I probably don’t shoot in the POE, and always shoot one of Mathblade / IV. The fact they’re both here is baffling. If the Scum knew they could neutralize IV, why not shoot Mathblade then? I’m clearly missing something.

[Andresvmb]

his entire iso all of day four was swearing up and down that I'm locktown and eliminating me ends the game and he spent all day insulting you for being a moron for wanting to eliminate me.

Do you really think he wakes up on Day 5 and says "nah that was just for show actually Ari is scum"

Everything House did was a giant show. They said they would vote whoever they ended up with in ELo with Mathblade, and ended yesterday voting for Mathblade prior to the No Execution votes.

[MathBlade]

Scum!Me shoots Mathblade 1000 times out of 1000 there.

Can you not just rely on this argument? I don’t think you have the greatest incentive to shoot House, other than so you can scream nonstop that you don’t do this and to trust you. So it’s somewhat WIFOMy. It was unclear to me what the hell kind of role House could possibly have if he actually had a role, but a Scum you might not have wanted to take the chance. I probably don’t shoot in the POE, and always shoot one of Mathblade / IV. The fact they’re both here is baffling. If the Scum knew they could neutralize IV, why not shoot Mathblade then? I’m clearly missing something.

Because they think either A> That I miselim Ari
Or B> Think they can win in second elo.

[Andresvmb]

his entire iso all of day four was swearing up and down that I'm locktown and eliminating me ends the game and he spent all day insulting you for being a moron for wanting to eliminate me.

Do you really think he wakes up on Day 5 and says "nah that was just for show actually Ari is scum"

Everything House did was a giant show. They said they would vote whoever they ended up with in ELo with Mathblade, and ended yesterday voting for Mathblade prior to the No Execution votes.

okay, past the initial hatred of my life, what are we left with

if iv is scum who's bullshitting about his no-result, then the town is the disloyal weak nonsense, the n2 vig, and the named townie. this feels... it feels bad.

if iv is town, that means scum has to have some sorta action-stopping power. either ascetic or roleblocker (or something similar to it). if it were ascetic (with ari being it), then scum was betting a lot last night on iv checking ari, which would probably be a bad choice considering he found me the most suspicious.

if there's a blocker in play... we once again go back to our d2 dilemma.

I think that the second option is unlikely. Either IV is Scum, or the Scum acted to stop IV. If IV hit an Ascetic Scum, we’re so unlucky I don’t even want to think about it.

If Ari is ascetic scum you realize I really want your head right?

I’m just trying to be objective. It’s not the most likely outcome. You know this too. Sure, it’s possible. But it’s just so unlucky if it’s true. And I don’t think the Scum take a chance like that.

[Aristeia]

Scum!Me shoots Mathblade 1000 times out of 1000 there.

Can you not just rely on this argument? I don’t think you have the greatest incentive to shoot House, other than so you can scream nonstop that you don’t do this and to trust you. So it’s somewhat WIFOMy. It was unclear to me what the hell kind of role House could possibly have if he actually had a role, but a Scum you might not have wanted to take the chance. I probably don’t shoot in the POE, and always shoot one of Mathblade / IV. The fact they’re both here is baffling. If the Scum knew they could neutralize IV, why not shoot Mathblade then? I’m clearly missing something.

if mathblade is town and deathtunneled on me!town why would scum ever shoot mathblade?

[Andresvmb]

Scum!Me shoots Mathblade 1000 times out of 1000 there.

Can you not just rely on this argument? I don’t think you have the greatest incentive to shoot House, other than so you can scream nonstop that you don’t do this and to trust you. So it’s somewhat WIFOMy. It was unclear to me what the hell kind of role House could possibly have if he actually had a role, but a Scum you might not have wanted to take the chance. I probably don’t shoot in the POE, and always shoot one of Mathblade / IV. The fact they’re both here is baffling. If the Scum knew they could neutralize IV, why not shoot Mathblade then? I’m clearly missing something.

Because they think either A> That I miselim Ari
Or B> Think they can win in second elo.

You and I both knew House’s play practically guaranteed they had No Role. I would never have picked there as the NK, and not outside of whichever one of you / IV is telling the truth. So either the Scum are playing a gambit here (and look at the conclusion you ended up with), or they knew they couldn’t be guiltied, and are having a laugh.

[Aristeia]

Can you not just rely on this argument? I don’t think you have the greatest incentive to shoot House, other than so you can scream nonstop that you don’t do this and to trust you. So it’s somewhat WIFOMy. It was unclear to me what the hell kind of role House could possibly have if he actually had a role, but a Scum you might not have wanted to take the chance.

It is the truth. I never shoot House here.

And being able to talk about me not shooting house is not useful because it doesn't actually do anything for me since Mathblade doesn't

care

about it - he will think it is NAI.

It is 1000% better for scum!me to shoot mathblade, get rid of him wanting to kill me and have house!town alive to defend me.

[MathBlade]

his entire iso all of day four was swearing up and down that I'm locktown and eliminating me ends the game and he spent all day insulting you for being a moron for wanting to eliminate me.

Do you really think he wakes up on Day 5 and says "nah that was just for show actually Ari is scum"

Everything House did was a giant show. They said they would vote whoever they ended up with in ELo with Mathblade, and ended yesterday voting for Mathblade prior to the No Execution votes.

okay, past the initial hatred of my life, what are we left with

if iv is scum who's bullshitting about his no-result, then the town is the disloyal weak nonsense, the n2 vig, and the named townie. this feels... it feels bad.

if iv is town, that means scum has to have some sorta action-stopping power. either ascetic or roleblocker (or something similar to it). if it were ascetic (with ari being it), then scum was betting a lot last night on iv checking ari, which would probably be a bad choice considering he found me the most suspicious.

if there's a blocker in play... we once again go back to our d2 dilemma.

I think that the second option is unlikely. Either IV is Scum, or the Scum acted to stop IV. If IV hit an Ascetic Scum, we’re so unlucky I don’t even want to think about it.

If Ari is ascetic scum you realize I really want your head right?

I’m just trying to be objective. It’s not the most likely outcome. You know this too. Sure, it’s possible. But it’s just so unlucky if it’s true. And I don’t think the Scum take a chance like that.

Why would it be unlucky? Seems very probable.

I think there are four options:

IV town Ari scum => Ascetic scum is most likely here. A roleblock nerfs power too much like Datisi said.
IV town Ari town => This necessitates an even night roleblocker or Jailkeeper or rolestopper. Something of the sort.
IV scum Ari town => Means that IV thought he had an SS miselim but then how does he explain lack of death and a result N4? He wasn’t wagoned then IIRC just one or two suggestions.
IV scum Ari scum => We get a scum either way?

[Aristeia]

A lot of the play is colored by how many TPRs you think there will be in this game.

However if IV/Mathblade are both town, that means not a single scum player fake-claimed TPR.

How often does that actually happen in a game?

You guys all stated yesterday that no elim would lead to a kill no the "mech-clears" however look at today - niether "mech-clear" died - a result that you say is highly surprising - yet niether mechclear is pushing the other

[Andresvmb]

Scum!Me shoots Mathblade 1000 times out of 1000 there.

Can you not just rely on this argument? I don’t think you have the greatest incentive to shoot House, other than so you can scream nonstop that you don’t do this and to trust you. So it’s somewhat WIFOMy. It was unclear to me what the hell kind of role House could possibly have if he actually had a role, but a Scum you might not have wanted to take the chance. I probably don’t shoot in the POE, and always shoot one of Mathblade / IV. The fact they’re both here is baffling. If the Scum knew they could neutralize IV, why not shoot Mathblade then? I’m clearly missing something.

if mathblade is town and deathtunneled on me!town why would scum ever shoot mathblade?

They’re not deathtunneled on you. And why didn’t I just try and vote you out yesterday? I could have voted you, baited House to hammer you, and then won the game no? What was I waiting for then?

[MathBlade]

Can you not just rely on this argument? I don’t think you have the greatest incentive to shoot House, other than so you can scream nonstop that you don’t do this and to trust you. So it’s somewhat WIFOMy. It was unclear to me what the hell kind of role House could possibly have if he actually had a role, but a Scum you might not have wanted to take the chance.

It is the truth. I never shoot House here.

And being able to talk about me not shooting house is not useful because it doesn't actually do anything for me since Mathblade doesn't

care

about it - he will think it is NAI.

It is 1000% better for scum!me to shoot mathblade, get rid of him wanting to kill me and have house!town alive to defend me.

What if you couldn’t shoot though? If you’re traitor the argument is a bad one.

[Andresvmb]

A lot of the play is colored by how many TPRs you think there will be in this game.

However if IV/Mathblade are both town, that means not a single scum player fake-claimed TPR.

How often does that actually happen in a game?

You guys all stated yesterday that no elim would lead to a kill no the "mech-clears" however look at today - niether "mech-clear" died - a result that you say is highly surprising - yet niether mechclear is pushing the other

So what are you suggesting?

[Aristeia]

Can you not just rely on this argument? I don’t think you have the greatest incentive to shoot House, other than so you can scream nonstop that you don’t do this and to trust you. So it’s somewhat WIFOMy. It was unclear to me what the hell kind of role House could possibly have if he actually had a role, but a Scum you might not have wanted to take the chance.

It is the truth. I never shoot House here.

And being able to talk about me not shooting house is not useful because it doesn't actually do anything for me since Mathblade doesn't

care

about it - he will think it is NAI.

It is 1000% better for scum!me to shoot mathblade, get rid of him wanting to kill me and have house!town alive to defend me.

What if you couldn’t shoot though? If you’re traitor the argument is a bad one.

Ok if I'm a traitor who's the main scum and why did that main scum not shoot IV or you?

[Andresvmb]

Why would it be unlucky? Seems very probable.

I think there are four options:

IV town Ari scum => Ascetic scum is most likely here. A roleblock nerfs power too much like Datisi said.
IV town Ari town => This necessitates an even night roleblocker or Jailkeeper or rolestopper. Something of the sort.
IV scum Ari town => Means that IV thought he had an SS miselim but then how does he explain lack of death and a result N4? He wasn’t wagoned then IIRC just one or two suggestions.
IV scum Ari scum => We get a scum either way?

I mean, it’s still unlucky. Not every Scum is Ascetic I’m sure, so you’ve still ended up targeting the one Scum that ruins your role on the one Night that we really needed it.

[Aristeia]

They’re not deathtunneled on you. And why didn’t I just try and vote you out yesterday? I could have voted you, baited House to hammer you, and then won the game no? What was I waiting for then?

I think everyone here thinks Mathblade is death-tunneled on me.

One reason why you didn't vote for me could be because if you vote for me then it makes you/IV lock-scum from my POV if House doesn't hammer and you suspect he is baiting you.

[Aristeia]

I highly doubt IV is town here because this game does not make any sense if IV is town.

[MathBlade]

Can you not just rely on this argument? I don’t think you have the greatest incentive to shoot House, other than so you can scream nonstop that you don’t do this and to trust you. So it’s somewhat WIFOMy. It was unclear to me what the hell kind of role House could possibly have if he actually had a role, but a Scum you might not have wanted to take the chance.

It is the truth. I never shoot House here.

And being able to talk about me not shooting house is not useful because it doesn't actually do anything for me since Mathblade doesn't

care

about it - he will think it is NAI.

It is 1000% better for scum!me to shoot mathblade, get rid of him wanting to kill me and have house!town alive to defend me.

What if you couldn’t shoot though? If you’re traitor the argument is a bad one.

Ok if I'm a traitor who's the main scum and why did that main scum not shoot IV or you?

Could be any of the other three.

I can make arguments for any of them. That’s the issue

I can make a good argument for any possible duo here

It’s just more likely you’re scum and I am pointing out a flaw in your logic. A flaw I typically do as scum. Start from a common assumption people assume true (eg scum can pick who is the NK) and then use that assumption to try to argue what you want.