Open 848: Chromavalon: A Bouquet of Colors [Game Over]

[numberQ]

Spoiler: Flowers

Leonid Afremov,

Colored Flowers

Vote Count (1.1)

butterflies

[1]

Gamma Emerald
Dunnstral

[1]

Umlaut
Enchant

[0]

furtiveglance

[0]

Galron

[0]

Gamma Emerald

[0]

implosion

[0]

Noraa

[0]

ProgoWoshua

[0]

Titus

[1]

Enchant
Umlaut

[1]

Noraa

Not Voting:

butterflies, Dunnstral, furtiveglance, Galron, implosion, ProgoWoshua, Titus

Deadline:

April 8th, 2022, 12:00 PM EST ((expired on 2022-04-08 12:00:00))

[Gamma Emerald]

This is my first non-Newbie game, I think this setup is magic. To everyone claiming Merlin, I am not aMused.

VOTE: furtiveglance

[Noraa]

This is my first non-Newbie game, I think this setup is magic. To everyone claiming Merlin, I am not aMused.

FoS

momma bear mindmeld >:3

[Nancy Drew 39]

ego

[butterflies]

I’m kind’ve of upset that Noraa and Titus outed our masonry. :/

[butterflies]

I’m kind’ve of upset that Noraa and Titus outed our masonry. :/

Whoopsie

[Noraa]

apologies it was an accident ;[

[butterflies]

apologies it was an accident ;[

It’s okay, I still <3 you both.

but just be more careful in the future.

[implosion]

Good morning.

I don't see why that post from furtive is suspicious.

[butterflies]

Just to show no hard feelings Noraa/Titus, I got this recipe from Shiro, I hope you like it.

[butterflies]

This is going to take some getting used to,

heya nerds!

VOTE: Gamma!

Mwahahah

-butterFlea

[Noraa]

BUTTER FLEAAAAA AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[implosion]

VOTE: Gamma

While this game isn't super active might as well spew some mechanical thoughts. I don't want this day to be dominated by mech talk by any means but there are a few things I think are worth keeping in mind.

Spoiler: Mostly math

The main thing is the prospect of claiming, and when if ever it's appropriate. This game is different from Avalon in that one of the muses claiming isn't immediate death for the town. Raw probability of scum successfully guessing all 3 muses in the event of us limming all 3 scum is respectively (note: i did a lot of probability in my head so no 100% guarantee that every number in this post is correct):

1/60, 1/12, 1/3, 1/1

if respectively 0, 1, 2, 3 of the muses have claimed including with their color, that is, with who they know to be scum. If one of the VTs who happens to be in the pool scum were given has claimed, those odds change to:

1/24, 1/6, 1/2, 1/1

if both VTs in the pool have claimed then they change to:

1/6, 1/2, 1/1, 1/1

If instead the muses claim without claiming their colors, then the probabilities become:

1/60, 1/36, 1/18, 1/6

Of course, this is assuming scum guess completely at random. I can format this all into a table or two if people want.

On the flip side, if we pretend that there are no muses, mountainous 3:8 is absolutely abysmal for town. We have

two

mislims. That's a pretty tight schedule.

The lesson here, IMO, is basically this: it's not a great harm if a small amount of claiming needs to happen at some point, for some reason. It will still be hard for scum to get their secondary win condition. But if we need multiple claims, things quickly get dicey. Muses claiming while still keeping their targets obscured makes it much harder for scum to ultimately fulfill their secondary win condition, compared to claiming with their targets (but of course, drastically reduces the utility of muses claiming).

There are a lot of possible interesting things we can do around how to play with claims in this game. I think the most natural is as follows: if a player is being eliminated, they claim. If they claim muse, they can probably claim without claiming their target, and we lim someone else assuming that there's no counterclaim. That muse could even "lead" a lim on someone who they know not to be a muse, to avoid anyone else having to claim. One useful fact is that if we require claims before elimination on day one in particular, then we are guaranteed to have all three muses alive on day two, because scum cannot NK people in the muse pool n1.

I did have a much more elaborate and impractical idea that I can share if people want me to but I think it is strictly impractical.

[Noraa]

tbh claims arent helpful. like if we run up scum and they claim muse, what do we do?
i dont think it's worth it for a muse to out in this specific setup to guilty scum. that alternate win condition is just damning in too many ways.

scum know who the scum team are and that is a huge advantage. they will have a much easier time winning with their secondary win condition if they know who the muses are so it isnt worth it.

[Noraa]

Muses claiming while still keeping their targets obscured makes it much harder for scum to ultimately fulfill their secondary win condition

no it doesnt

[implosion]

tbh claims arent helpful. like if we run up scum and they claim muse, what do we do?

A muse (any muse) counterclaims. Either they can claim without their color, in which case there is very little cost, as the numbers show (scum's pre-info odds of success go from 1/60 to 1/36), or we could even specify in advance that a muse specifically with a

different

target should claim; this is potentially very powerful, because it guarantees that the muse who has the target of the scum who fakeclaimed will never have to out themself and scum will ultimately have to guess them with minimal info.

In other words: lets say player Z fakeclaims muse, and M is a muse who knows that Y is scum. M now also knows that Z is scum, because the muses are a masonry. So M can claim,

including

that Y is scum, and town now knows two scum for the cost of fully outing one muse.

On the flip side, scum probably won't have incentive to counterclaim an actual muse, though this might merit more thought.

[implosion]

Muses claiming while still keeping their targets obscured makes it much harder for scum to ultimately fulfill their secondary win condition

no it doesnt

It does in comparison to them claiming with colors, so long as they're careful not to make their targets obvious.

[Noraa]

in which case there is very little cost

no there is huge cost what the heck do you mean

[Noraa]

1 muse claim is the max this game. otherwise this is a guaranteed town loss.

[Noraa]

If scum ever knows who the muses are, do you really think an iso doesn't make their colors clear?

[Noraa]

Scum knowing the identity of a muse is the exact same thing as scum knowing their color.

[implosion]

If scum ever knows who the muses are, do you really think an iso doesn't make their colors clear?

I do. I've played a lot of Avalon, and there are a lot of ways to play Merlin in it; you can lead, you can stay back, you can be correct from the start or intentionally say things you know are wrong at first and then transition into saying things more accurately if needed. Etc, etc.

Granted, that experience is all IRL and not on a forum where a scumteam can pore over an ISO. But that's in Avalon, where Merlin being found out is simply death. Here it isn't because there are still two other muses. And even if scum knew all 3 muses' identities, there's 6 different ways they could match colors to merlins, and there's a ton of potential false signal that could trip them up.

[implosion]

The reason I say there's very little cost to a single merlin claiming without color is that from a pure numbers perspective, the odds of scum getting it correct shift from 1/60 (negligible) to 1/36 (also negligible) assuming no one else claims for the rest of the game. Even taking into account that scum have all of the information of all our ISOs at their disposal, I still see that cost as trivial for the benefit.

In other news: why the FoS on furtiveglance?

[Noraa]

the odds of scum getting it correct shift from 1/60 (negligible) to 1/36 (also negligible) assuming no one else claims for the rest of the game

fractions dont matter because many of those possibilities arent possible depending on the roll. all i know is that if i were scum and i knew the identities of the three muses, i would have 90% confidence in being able to figure out their colors.
literally if you have confidence on one muse's color, it's 50-50. Can you really not tell which one pushed which person more? like i dont see a scenario where im given a scum role pm, the names of my scum team, and the muses and i cant figure out who is who. like i dont see it.

[Noraa]

In other news: why the FoS on furtiveglance?

the post was scummy. tone was bad.
also i have a grudge with furtiveglance. i confirmed so quick and realized someone called furtiveglance confirmed before me. the audacity