FFVII Mafia: Over

[Natirasha]

Look, I explained already, I believed ABR's behavior to be a nulltell/minor scumtell, since I've been in games with him, and he does stuff like that all the time. And even if it was a scumtell, it certainly wasn't as big as CML's scumminess.

[Cephrir]

I can understand people who yesterday thought Albert might be town, despite his behavior. Armlx's position, for example, seemed reasonable.

People who seemed to KNOW he was town yesterday, though, pretty much despite all the evidence of everything he did all game, are probably scum who were trying to look good.

Anyone in particular who you'd say are a part of the latter group?

[Elias_the_thief]

Vote Count Number Twenty Three: The "Black Mages- The Band" Votecount

MrBuddyLee - 3

(

Empking, Zakeri, Natirashi

)

wolframnhart - 1

(

Lowell

)

Empking - 1

(

iamausername

)

Lowell - 1

(

wolframnhart

)

Zakeri - 1

(

RiceballTail

)

Jebus - 0
Cephrir - 0
Grimmy - 0
Natirasha- 0
CarnCarn - 0
Yosarian2 - 0
RiceballTail - 0
GhostWriter - 0
TonyMontana - 0
iamausername - 0
christiano drago - 0
Cavebear with a toothache - 0
Nobody - 10

(

Cavebear with a toothache, Grimmy, TonyMontana, MrBuddyLee, Christiano Drago, Cephrir, GhostWriter, Yosarian2, CarnCarn, Jebus

)

---

With

17

alive, it will take

9

to lynch. Deadline is

Saturday the 22nd of November at 10 PM EST.

[iamausername]

Nobody - 12 (Cavebear with a toothache, Grimmy, Lowell, TonyMontana, MrBuddyLee, Christiano Drago, Cephrir, GhostWriter, Yosarian2)

[CarnCarn]

Corrections to vote count: 1) Lowell is already voting wolframnhart, so he probably shouldn't be under the "Nobody" category 2) Add myself and Jebus to the not voting category (that should make 10 not voting).

Fixed.

[iamausername]

In case this isn't clear, I wasn't ing because the votecount was inaccurate.

[Grimmy]

the sad face is because so many peopel are votign for nobody, and if nobody gets around to making a case, then nobody will get lynched. And IAM likes nobody. Always has, always will.

Grimmy
joke phase of day 2

[CarnCarn]

In case this isn't clear, I wasn't ing because the votecount was inaccurate.

Want to explain? I can guess, but I can't read minds.

Hopefully people will start posting again. MBL kind of took everyone for a spin, and he still hasn't explained why he finds half of the people on his list to be scummy (and not just scum, but specific flavor of scum).

[Elias_the_thief]

Ghostwriter and Empking have been prodded. Please try to keep activity up. I am considering moving deadline up a week.

[Empking]

Look, I explained already, I believed ABR's behavior to be a nulltell/minor scumtell, since I've been in games with him, and he does stuff like that all the time. And even if it was a scumtell, it certainly wasn't as big as CML's scumminess.

If he does it all the time, why would it be a minor scumtell?

[TonyMontana]

Vote: Zakeri

Let's get this road on the show

[CarnCarn]

Vote: MrBuddyLee

You've got a lot of explaining to do, Mr

[MrBuddyLee]

I think you should start out explaining why you're voting me, CarnCarn, particularly considering I've strongly suspected Tony's a power role for a few days now and yet scum hasn't taken a swing at him. Have you reread my entire post history, or are you just being opportunistic and OMGUSsy?

Note on your OMGUS, I'm not even voting you even though I think there's a significant chance you might be an SK with an awesome safeclaim. (Or, after Zakeri's various defenses of you, less likely but possible that you and Zak are scumpartners.) You have a role that you claim can investigate, protect and vig, so what exactly's antitown about my approach towards your role?

[MrBuddyLee]

Natirasha

replaced Zac. Said he had no interest in reading the game. Found CallMeLiam scummy, listed an utter falsehood as his reason:

I agree CML is scummy--it doesn't make sense to test a cop when you can test the subject first.

CalMeLiam never voted a cop on D1--he was voting armlx.

I'm old fashioned in that it'd take a lot for me to lynch a day-cop on day one.

I would rather not risk killing a daycop on day one.

This makes it look like Nat had an agenda coming in to the game, even as he claimed not to read the thread. The agenda, as it turns out, was to press aggressively for a dead Shinra.

Meaning if we have two factions, Nat is much more likely a Turk. Unless he has a history of TERRIBLE buses of scumpartners based on false reasons. One theory is that Nat's team may have a scumcop and had a guilty on Liam, thus Nat's aggressive press based on completely false/nonexistent info.

Further cementing Natirasaha's scumminess, he:
a) voted TonyMontana yesterday and today despite clues about powerroleness
b) unvoted TonyMontana reflexively today after the Cloud claim:

I believe the claim.

not waiting for possible counterclaim, as if he knew the good claim was coming and was satisfied to have outed it
c) was defensive and weird when I listed him as possible scum with several other people

So yeah, if Nat's scum, he's not Shinra. Thus I listed him in the

Turk

department for now. Nothing precluding him from being Sephiroth at this point.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, please note that

Jebus

dropped off the radar after I pointed out that, bizarrely, he's defending Natirasha for no apparent reason. I originally thought Jebus was suspicious for a few reasons, including:

@Natirisha - What do you think of CallMeLiam, ABR, Yosarian, and armlx right now?

This looks like scum trying to set someone up for a fall--a curious choice of names, and why's Yosarian2 in there? Oh, here's why:

I'm still somewhat against ABR right now... His(ABR's) case against Yosarian seems legitamate as well, though I'm not sure I'm willing to go with ABR on that ~

So Jebus:
a) doesn't trust Albert
b) but likes Albert's case on Yos enough to mention it specifically
c) then adds Yos to the list of people to trip Nat up with

My theory here was that Jebus may be scum with Yos and Liam and distancing very sloppily. He slipped their names into the list of questions for Nat, hoping Nat would go on record protecting at least one scumbag. And the other two names Jebus spit out were people he suspected of being on the opposite scumteam: armlx and ABR.

Jebus REALLY wanted Tony dead yesterday, but then drew attention to his vote for Liam (distancing) while virtually begging Liam to defend himself:

vote: Liam as I said I would, since we're approaching deadline. If the deadline could be extended for CML to post some defense on this, I'd appreciate it, but for now, since nobody's going with Tony, this'll have to do.

Weird behavior surrounding Yosarian and Liam makes Jebus a

Shinra

candidate. There is a hitch in these two theories, but a lot of it looks curious enough to investigate further.

[CarnCarn]

Unvote

No, I just thought it would get your attention. Like I said, you've listed 6 people to investigate and have really only made cases against 3 (me, Nat, Jebus), and a bit against Yos2. You haven't said anything about why you think iam and cephrir are scum. I'm assuming you will in due time, though.

Natirasha replaced Zac. Said he had no interest in reading the game. Found CallMeLiam scummy, listed an utter falsehood as his reason:

I agree CML is scummy--it doesn't make sense to test a cop when you can test the subject first.

CalMeLiam never voted a cop on D1--he was voting armlx.

Wait, what? Are you sure he was referring to CML's vote?
And how exactly would a Turk know who is Shinra? I think you asked a similar question yourself:

Can the Tony Montana voters please explain how a scumbag could possibly know for certain right now that another player is a townie?

This is the flip side of that question. A scumcop, though? Really? I guess it's possible, but I would say it's closer to the category of the daycop and voteblocking roles (i.e., non-existant in this game).

As for unvoting TM, there are lots of good reasons I can think of (I did it myself, and I've explained why), but I'll leave it to Nat.

[quote="Jebus]@Natirisha - What do you think of CallMeLiam, ABR, Yosarian, and armlx right now?

This looks like scum trying to set someone up for a fall--a curious choice of names, and why's Yosarian2 in there?[/quote][/quote]
Interesting. So, this was yesterday, when Nat replaced and was doing a read through. I would also like to know why Jebus thinks/thought Yos2 is suspicious (the other 3 I can understand).
I don't buy the distancing thing yet, but this is a good point. I can see a link between Jebus and CML making sense in light of the request of deadline extension, etc.

[MrBuddyLee]

October 4th. Vote count is 6-6,

Yosarian2

pushes ABR lynch aggressively. Mentions Liam for the first time as I question Liam:

This is a good question(about Liam); I want to hear the answer as well.

Alerts me to the possibility that Yos wants to look involved in the grilling of Liam.

October 11th, vote count becomes TonyMontana 6 Liam 6, Yos doesn't buy the Tony wagon and says Liam and ABR are still scummier, keeps pushing an ABR lynch but mentioning Liam, just not making a case on Liam, only chiming in agreement.

Yos discusses specifics of the Tony and ABR cases but not of the Liam case.

That was because he(Tony) seemed to "know" Armlx was town, right? It's a possible scumtell, sure. There are other possible explinatios for that too, though. In any case, I think that the overall cases on Albert and CallMeLiam are better.

By October 16th, it's 8-8 ABR-Tony. Yos is finally voting, for ABR. But makes a weird, snide remark about someone being Liam's scumpartner that sounds out of place:

why would you attack someone for changing wagons in order to try to secure a lynch? You Liam's scumbuddy or something ?

October 17th, vote is 10-9 ABR over Liam. Yos continues to push ABR but hedge his bets on Liam,

while still not having mentioned a single thing about Liam's specific scumminess/the case today

:

That being said, Liam also looks rather scummy, and if it looks like ABR won't be lynched I don't mind putting my vote there. I'd say that there's about a 60% chance ABR is scum, most likely SK.

Still doesn't appear to have considered the specifics of the Liam case, nor is he trying to persuade anyone about Liam.

Uses Albert=SK argument to try to drive the last two votes home on ABR, but still REALLY wants us to know he finds Liam scummy, but still doesn't list any evidence.

October 19th, Liam now at L-1, Yos ramps up the ABR push, specifically mentioning un-nightkillable SK after CarnCarn's claim:

Yeah, move that up to like 90% now. I've been arguing all day that ABR's play makes the most sense if he's a NK immune SK, and now it looks like he's probably NK immune. Can we please lynch him now?

The attempt fails--ABR is not lynched. Note that all day:

* Yos made cases against ABR and discussed others' cases on ABR
* Found Liam scummy but never, ever listed a detail or discussed a case or found anyone scummy for pushing Liam instead of ABR
* Discussed some specifics about Tony and discarded them

Also note that Yos found Tony Montana to be a possible cop on October 11th, yet pressed him hard all the way to a claim today:

But hey, if you really were trying to "retain your status as likely suspect", then congrats, you suceeded. Enjoy your lynch.

Yos knew Tony was a possible cop, knows that cops try to remain a suspect so they don't get shot overnight, and still pressed aggressively for Tony in total disregard of this.

But far more importantly, this is Yos's stance on the Liam thing today:

I made clear sevearal times yesteday that CML was a good wagon, that he was my #2 suspect, and that I was entierly willing to lynch him if I couldn't get an ABR lynch.

The fact that you never made a case or discussed anyone else's cases in an evaluative manner, Yos, plus the fact that you were worried about ABR being un-NKillable SK, leads me to believe you were Liam's scumpartner, and are

Shinra

.

[TonyMontana]

You seem to have placed my name a couple places where it doesn't belong. Confusing.

[Grimmy]

My apologies to all players.

RL work issues have been harder than expected, and I will not be online during weekends. I will try again to post more significantly by tuesday.
One question before departing, though.

Early in the game, we had timeater vote and unvote everyone in the game. Was this part of a joke or was this some condition he had where he could only do a certain action or actions if he had voted for the person at one point in the game?

Grimmy

[Grimmy]

My apologies to all players.

RL work issues have been harder than expected, and I will not be online during weekends. I will try again to post more significantly by tuesday.
One question before departing, though.

Grimmy

edit.

This was supposed to be posted in the BSG game and I startd typing in the wrong window. Sorry guys and gals. While I will be away like I stated, the question was not for this group.

[GhostWriter]

MBL, I've got to say, I'm really like your scumhunting right now. I was a bit skeptical when you pointed to everyone on that wagon being scum, but your cases are actually quite solid. One thing, though. I was also on that wagon today, but I was not mentioned. I would like to know why not.

[CarnCarn]

The Yos2 case is really pushing it. Your main argument is that he didn't push hard enough to lynch CML, who ended up scum. Umm, hello? That's the cat calling the kettle black here. You do realize that the same thing applies to you, me, and a bunch of other people who strongly preferred the ABR lynch all day, right? I didn't see you making many arguments against CML, either. But, that's just the way the game goes; you can only lynch one person per day, so you end up focusing your arguments on one person, when the dust starts settling one a group of suspects.

Also:

note that Yos found Tony Montana to be a possible cop on October 11th

This is Yos2's Oct 11 post:

I think we need a mass prod. And for everybody to explain why the hell they are not voting TonyMontana, because I don't understand at all.

That was because he seemed to "know" Armlx was town, right?


It's a possible scumtell, sure. There are other possible explinatios for that too, though. In any case, I think that the overall cases on Albert and CallMeLiam are better.

Your reasoning isn't very good. It's basically LAL.

How is LAL not good reasoning? You realize that it's the meta stratagy that has been used by most of the good players on this site for most of the time this site's been in existance, right?

I'm not quite a LAL guy, but I'm a big fan of "lynch almost all liars". If you get caught in a lie, I tend to think you've got to have a REALLY good reason why we should think you're protown in order to live, and Albert really dosn't; the best I could say is that I could imagine him doing it as either town or as scum, and I personally don't think that's enough reason to let someone live after they get caught lying about a counterclaim and about a cop investigation.

Where exactly does he even mention a cop?

[CarnCarn]

Where exactly does he even mention a cop?

Other than in reference to ABR, in the last line, that is.

[MrBuddyLee]

In that quote you just posted, here's Yos acknowledging one reason why Tony might know something he shouldn't:

There are other possible explinatios for that too, though.

aka: If Tony's a cop, it would explain the oddity.

And there's a vast difference between how you handled Liam, how I handled Liam, and how Yos handled Liam. I ignored Liam most of the day and specifically said I wasn't thrilled with the lynch. You said you found Liam neutral to protown and provided a little evidence. Yos said repeatedly that he found Liam second scummiest on the day, REALLY wanted to appear as such, but never made a case to try and persuade anyone.

I know Yos, and generally he tries to persuade when he finds someone scummy. The fact that he found Liam second scummiest, but never made a case or evaluated anyone's case is extremely suspect. Also, he found ABR 90% scummy but never evaluated the Liam cases to see if people were using craplogic on Liam to protect ABR.

Liam was an obvious wagon target from D1. The correct scum play was to bus him with words, but if possible not vote him, and neither you nor I did that, CarnCarn. Yos talked shit about Liam all day but never voted him, which is prototypical scum behavior.

[Jebus]

Also, please note that

Jebus

dropped off the radar after I pointed out that, bizarrely, he's defending Natirasha for no apparent reason. I originally thought Jebus was suspicious for a few reasons, including:

@Natirisha - What do you think of CallMeLiam, ABR, Yosarian, and armlx right now?

This looks like scum trying to set someone up for a fall--a curious choice of names, and why's Yosarian2 in there? Oh, here's why:

I'm still somewhat against ABR right now... His(ABR's) case against Yosarian seems legitamate as well, though I'm not sure I'm willing to go with ABR on that ~

So Jebus:
a) doesn't trust Albert
b) but likes Albert's case on Yos enough to mention it specifically
c) then adds Yos to the list of people to trip Nat up with

My theory here was that Jebus may be scum with Yos and Liam and distancing very sloppily. He slipped their names into the list of questions for Nat, hoping Nat would go on record protecting at least one scumbag. And the other two names Jebus spit out were people he suspected of being on the opposite scumteam: armlx and ABR.

Jebus REALLY wanted Tony dead yesterday, but then drew attention to his vote for Liam (distancing) while virtually begging Liam to defend himself:

vote: Liam as I said I would, since we're approaching deadline. If the deadline could be extended for CML to post some defense on this, I'd appreciate it, but for now, since nobody's going with Tony, this'll have to do.

Weird behavior surrounding Yosarian and Liam makes Jebus a

Shinra

candidate. There is a hitch in these two theories, but a lot of it looks curious enough to investigate further.

1) CML - I put him in there for the obvious reason.
2) ABR - I put him in because of his contraversial play, and because I wanted a second opinion on top of my own.
3) Yos2 - I put him in for the reason you quoted, because ABR's case was legitamite. In addition, your case on him is legitimate as well.
4) Armlx - I put him in because of what ABR and Xotxm did on day 1. Curiousity moreso than scumhunting.