Mini 2270: Spring Fling!

[Dunnstral]

What you're doing isn't even comparable. You're making posts like this:

I mean, I already explained why I find dunn scum plausible.

And luke is pre-flipping two players based on both of my alignments on shoddy logic. You've made maybe 3 posts about me and luke has over 20.

But sure, it's all a part of my master plan to have left you out.

[Dunnstral]

Do you think that I give softer stances when I am scum compared to when I am town, Bell?

[Bell]

I made two larger posts that basically say the same thing. When you make inane posts, ask inane questions I think you’re scum and I have pushed it.

Lukewarm considering every single projected model isn’t the same because the whole thing collapses when you get flipped and it doesn’t make his argument stronger or weaker. I’m not sure why you think it does.

[Bell]

Do you think that I give softer stances when I am scum compared to when I am town, Bell?

I’ve been pretty clear that I think you might be scum independently of what Noraa is saying because I haven’t touched on that argument at all. But I’m not really here to argue. That’s for scum to do(what the hell am I saying?)

[Noraa]

Mala dont make any impuslive decisions please. lukewarm is like the most transparent town in the world. Like if we leave ceph instead of dunn, that's somewhat acceptable. but it's not acceptable to leave lukewarm

[Cephrir]

I made two larger posts that basically say the same thing. When you make inane posts, ask inane questions I think you’re scum and I have pushed it.

Lukewarm considering every single projected model isn’t the same because the whole thing collapses when you get flipped and it doesn’t make his argument stronger or weaker. I’m not sure why you think it does.

It does sort of line up lims either way.

[Cephrir]

Mala dont make any impuslive decisions please. lukewarm is like the most transparent town in the world. Like if we leave ceph instead of dunn, that's somewhat acceptable. but it's not acceptable to leave lukewarm

Why is luke town?

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler: Luke's push on Dunnstral

Re:Nora's read on Dunn.


I have thoughts but they feel convoluted.

I am not consciously scum reading Dunn, but I am definitely not town reading him either.

I am not as confident in my ability to read Dunn as Nora is, but I do feel like there is a difference between this game and one where i was ready to hard defend him like in say Web of Lies or Shakespeare.

I kind of like the fact that Noraa is picking up a difference there as well, since web of lies we were both ready to go to bat for Dunn, and this neither of us are town reading him this game.

It is making me rethink my Noraa scum read. Which is annoying because I don't have enough of them as it is :/

My hero solve for day 1 is Prism, Dunn, then one of Myko/enchant.

Not taking questions [just for posterity] thanks!

I think that Dunn should be left behind

propose to Mala

I don't currently trust Prism, which leaves me disinclined to let her do the sorting of the pairs.

Thinking selfishly, I think pairing with Dats knowing that I am his top scum read just kills me day 2, and I think proposing to fire results in fire getting hammer between me and Cephrir, and I am left behind today. So, survival thinking says Mala is my best bet.

Hmmm. I don't want Noraa and Datisi paired.

If we are leaving Dunn behind, I think I want

Me+Mala
Noraa+Fire
Ceph+Datisi.

If Noraa is being left behind, I would want

Me+Mala
Dunn+Datisi
Cehp+Fire

Hmmm. I don't want Noraa and Datisi paired.

If we are leaving Dunn behind, I think I want

Me+Mala
Noraa+Fire
Ceph+Datisi.

If Noraa is being left behind, I would want

Me+Mala
Dunn+Datisi
Cehp+Fire

I am realizing that there are too many moving parts for me to try and get it to where someone can hammer one option or the other. So, I can't really orcastrate this choice, and that is frustrating.

Me+Mala, and then Noraa+Fire, giving Dats the hammer between Ceph and Dunn might be the closest things that I can see. But, I don't really see Fire agreeing to that because he was scum reading Noraa.

Ugh, I have thoughts, and I desperately want to be more strategic in the way that I disseminate my thoughts to the thread, and not just blurt every thought I have out. But I am struggling to find the best way to do it. So, I guess I failed, and I am blurting my thoughts out.

I hated Datisi's 587.

The moment I read it, my brain said that that is a mafia scared of a quick switch in thread perception of their partner. Nora made a case, I started shifting my reads (575), Fire said it was convincing (577). And then Datisi dropped 587.

It bothered me that it didn't call Dunn town, or town case him. It just called Noraa's reasons NAI - pumping breaks on the shift, without committing to calling Dunn town
Then said he was questioning his reads, then said he was gonna do some isos. Sets him up for a new push somewhere else all in one go.
----
So, if we leave out Dunn, and he flips scum, I feel like that town locks Noraa, and makes me more suspicious of Dats. So, I do not want that to be a pair if we are leaving out Dunn.
----

I also didn't like 616, but in a way that is harder for me to put into words.

----

One the other hand, I feel like if Dunn flips town, I feel like scum!Datisi would be less likely to try and pump the breaks on the Dunn read shift. So, I much prefer flipping Dunn over any of the other options (Being me, noraa, Ceph, and Dunn), because he is not one of my town reads, and I think that a scum or a town flip points is enlightening towards both Datisi and Noraa.

Pedit: Datisi just posted a change in stance, and I don't really know who to feel about it :/

I have read through 616->617->618 a few times... I feel like my thoughts are bad.

But my thoughts are that 616 feels like he was realizing that my read on him might be shifting, trying to get a better feel for my stance. Followed by an olive branch. And then deciding he needed to not look like Dunn's partner. But this is an incredibly self centered way to read that interaction, and so it is probably bad.

Like it would require Dats to realize that I paired him with Dunn, and then him changing his stance just in response to me, and that seems unlikely when I think about it logically.

Okay. If I separate out the bad thoughts, I think I am here:

Scum!Dunn town locks Noraa, who could be miseliminated fairly easily otherwise. and
Town!Dunn reverts me back to thinking that Datisi is town.

I will wait to consider the inverses until a later date, because the bad thoughts live in the inverses.

Noraa is currently town in my brain. Ceph is pretty null.

So, I still want a Dunn flip today.

he spent the entire post talking about how dunn is scum and partnered with me, but IF dunn were to flip town, that would say something about both me and noraa. and it's interesting how it's not explicitly said in the post, but the feel i get is that if dunn greens, that noraa is scum. which like, the fact that he didn't outright say it feels like he doesn't wanna draw attention to that part immediately

I actually typed out a more explicit version of

Town Dunn -> Scum Noraa, but then deleted it because I realized that I don't really know if that is true. I think I would need to reevaluate her there.

So, I actually think

Town Dunn-> Town Dats, and a need to reevaluate Noraa.
Scum Dunn -> Town Noraa, and a need to reevaluate you.

But my thoughts are that 616 feels like he was realizing that my read on him might be shifting, trying to get a better feel for my stance.

this part is true

i have reread the posts you have made that page, and even while KNOWING you were thinking about dats/dunn at the time, i still cannot see how i was supposed to see that from those posts, so

Responding to this post feels like one of my posts that serve no purpose, but I have broken the self restraint dam for the afternoon.

I mean, I openly suggested that you and dunn should be paired if dunn were not killed this day phase. And, if you and dunn really are scum together, I feel like that would have been an easy thing to spot. but, :shrug:

Here is a final post of Luke living his life as an open book, and then I am getting off of here for the night, and going to try again to turn back on the self restraint.

Here I was living my best life, reading through the thread. And vaguely concerned that I did not have any strong scum reads other then noraa. Then, Noraa decides to drop zir scum case on Dunn, and rock my world view, because I have had repeated thoughts on Dunn not being obviously town to me despite him having been in our last couple games, but not really having a scum read on him. Just noticing that it wasn't the same. And ze walks in saying that ze also noticed something different about Dunn, and felt like we were having similar thoughts about Dunn especially given our interactions wrt to dunn during and after the web of lies game. It gave me pretty strong "this is a similar mind looking at Dunn" and skyrocked Noraa out of my scum reads. Not even convinced that it made Dunn scum, just that zir and I were picking up the same things. So Noraa Town.

Suddenly, I am not living my best life anymore because I have no scum reads, and that is a sad life to lead in a game with 3 scum in it. So, then I started thinking about the fact that that likely means that the scum team has strong scum players in it. Prism and Dunn are both (in my opinion) very strong scum players that were both chilling in my null reads. So, I started thinking about a world where they were scum, and it made the world make a lot more sense, and why I was struggling to see red. Enter my hero solve of 582.

Boom, bam, ca pow. Dats' 587. My mind is racing. We got a scum team now fellas. That screamed partner reaction to me boys. Lets throw my hero solve away QUICK. New solve, Dunn+Datisi+[enchant/myko/Prism].

Gears are tumbling on how to live in this world. The answer: Leave dunn behind, and do everything I can do to not be paired with Dats. Enter, Proposing to Mala in 592. But wait! I shouldn't let Dats know I am on to him! There is no way for him to die this day phase, so no need to spill the beans right now. See 596. I got a secret, and I ain't sharing. ho ha.

Now what. I am proposing to Mala, how do I thwart the evil plans of the Dunn+Dats scum team. I know. Post 605. We kill Dunn! AND, we don't let Noraa pair with Dats. That will show them. But wait. People might not buy killing Dunn. What is the next best alternative? Pair Dunn and Datisi, OBVIOUSLY. I'm gonna be a good little boy, and cover my bases. Take that scum team.

Noraa posts 606, and my brain short circuits. How the hell do I tell zir why i don't want them paired without revealing my partner pair of Dunn+Dats. This is impossible. How do I stay one step ahead.

I guess I gotta spill the beans. Let my deranged thoughts flow. post 625.

Then I read dat's 616->618. And I typed out a whole thought process on how they were still partners. And then I had a flash back to that Tris game, where I wrote a dissertation on why Chaos and Dats were scum partners, and I was wrong. So, I started second guessing myself, and calling those Bad Thoughts. post 629.

And, since I was seeing those similarities, I started feeling like I should back off of the partner pair aspect of my thinking, and focus more on the townspew that come from the dunn flip (635), and that is my final conclusion of my flurry of thoughts on the whole thing.

Although, me thinking about how similar this situation is to the Tris game, but Dats not seeing it, and instead just calling me scummy did ping me all over again - but i went back to that interaction, and Dat's reaction to that was also to loudly start calling me scum, so :shrug:

I still like my town spews on a Dunn flip, but I am walking back somewhat the scum implications of the flips. We can cross that bridge when we get there.

And *bow*

You have all been privy to the hamster running on a wheel that is my thoughts.

I am going to get off of here, and when I return on the marrow, I shall try to bring back the self restrained version of myself you have all been growing accustomed to.

pedit: I see something I want to respond to, and so I shall before I get off of here.

@luke, it's not about your specific actions, it's about the overall feel your posts give off

Can I ask what my master plan is in this scenario then? If you are town, and I am scum?

Is my partner Dunn, and I am trying to get him killed today, and set up a partner association on you? If so, why would I ever aim to kill off Dunn here? He is better then me lmao. I would be trying to either keep Nora in the death crosshairs, or possibly even falling on my sword for him if I didn't think we could get Noraa though.

Or am I scum, and Dunn is town, and I am pushing to flip him today, and then literally every singe thing that I said about you being scum becomes completely meaningless because it all hinged on his scum flip, and I even stated that i would town lock you on his flip?

----

Too be clear, I am actvely trying to not partner associate you any more, but your argument that I am scum doing this feels bad.

Which funny enough, is making me lean back towards you being town, because I feel like I typed up this exact message to you in that Tris game.

Spoiler: Noraa's push on Dunnstral

ok read breakdown
prism's SR on me is the worst because it's very sudden and doesn't feel genuine. like the thing is this idea of me wanting to beat good players is meh at best in general. on top of that, prism hasn't really played with me much so having that much confidence in a meta tell like that is weird. i liked the intreactions with me re: andante pairing but pairing with andante is still something that just doesn't sit well with me. there's not much other content that can be juiced out of that pairing, but it's just ... a bad feeling. it feels like the exact move an experienced scum player would pull and I cant stop thinking that.

everyone TRing Dunn is a bad look on it's own. In what game has town dunn ever been townread this way? like if the playlist doesnt look like Cabd ffery peta LLD etc, it doesn't really happen. Obviously this is a very 1 dimension way to explain this read, but explaining it further is hard and I do want to wait for more dunn content to get the most out of the ISO.

Lukewarm feels very ... weird tonally. But I think Lukewarm becomes clear with time. So like if it's like day 3 and more than half of the playerlist thinks Lukewarm is scum, eliminate, no questions asked.

Ydrasse I initially thought was town (after all of the assuming i mean) for all of the interactions with me, but I'm actually inclined to take it back. Scum ydrasse is capable of so much that I shouldn't carelessly give a town pass before day 2 at the very least.

and now im bored and dont want to finish this. i might come back and finish things later

dunn will flip scum 9/10 times here

i finished my iso and i want to get straight to the point here. i am paranoid but i am pretty damn certain dunn is scum. if dunn flips town here, i will never say im good at reading dunn again.

i dont know what other people's alignments are to any degree of certainty because i know i've been playing scummily and i know mass scumreads on me mess with my reads. but i dont think dunn is town despite all of that. every other read could be completely wrong, we could have 6 scum, but i dont think dunn can be town.

i have been wrong on dunn before but i dont think im wrong here and to be absolutely honest, me saying this will not matter if i die today. because dunn will float straight to endgame and then people will either lose to them or manage to come around to this read.

on the other hand, if dunn is left behind today, i am cleared with a scum flip there since dunn would obviously be a bigger asset to the scum team than me based on the current game state.

also im not going to lie, im quite sure most of my other reads are wrong at this point. the fact that the gamestate looks like this and everything seems to work so perfectly in my head (scum team is perfectly 3 people, everyone else seems towny) means most of my reads are wrong. but the one on dunn isnt.

i want to get straight to the point here

why is dunn scum

Dunn's just trying too hard to be likable. they're trying too hard to be a good townie and town dunn isnt a good townie. town dunn does their own thing and doesnt care what anyone else thinks.

scum!dunn that i know of doesn't actually *do* much of anything

dunn doesnt really do much regardless of alignment. what's important is how they do the thing sthat they do do.

are there any specific posts that made you think dunn is trying to be likeable?

yes one second

I don't think Bell looks bad here but I do want to go against the notion that just posting means they can't be scum

I liked that mykonian gave a lot of reads with explanations early on and that it is believable

Noraa is meh because 142 doesn't really make sense, 158 seems to be painting a narrative for something that isn't actually happening which is weird. 177 is also weird because they're not really paying attention to what is being said, which is that they are going to post very little in the pt.

Lukewarm has the worst posts among the gents so far in my opinion. I believe them about their energy level, but they ask a lot of questions that are low impact. Right now if I had to choose between the gents who have posted it would be here unfortunately

I had sort of forgotten what scum dunn looked like for a moment but then i saw this post. There's so much wrong with this one tiny post.
"I dont think Bell looks bad here but ..."
no, town dunn doesnt say that. town dunn just says ok stop with bc about bell posting = bell town

the entire read on me was way too smooth. it was just not worded the way town dunn would do it. town dunn would just say like Noraa isnt paying attention and makes no sense.

the lukewarm read ends wiht "unfortunately" nah there is nothing unfortunate to town dunn about lukewarm dying regardless of lukewarms alignment.

town dunn doesnt soften their stances, if that makes any sense. All of what dunn is doing is not giving firm opinions and the reason is so that everything is still in soft clay form. They can play around with it. if one elimination doesnt work, swap it out for another. that solve doesnt look right? throw a different person in. that is not how town dunn works. town dunn's reads are like BAM this is what i think. Changing an opinion isnt a flow-y process, it's more of a bam this happened do you have an issue with it?

people townread softer stances because they dont feel absolute. they dont feel like the person isnt willing to reassess. but town doesnt think about that consciously or subconsciously whereas scum does. scum needs to always have different options on the table because they have many different paths to victory but need to choose wisely otherwise it could be a dead end.

town only has 1 path to victory. town must have the exact scum team dead whereas scum can have any combination mix and match of town dead.

i also feel like another thing dunn is doing is like saying really obvious things.
like saying thinks like "prism is doing this ... which makes me nervous"
and the thnig is that i think that would be somethign that is obvious to town dunn. like town dunn would just be like uhh prism is doing this and expect that you could tell they take issue with it.

agh i am genuinely so paranoid i need a hydra buddy more than ever right now but i really really think dunn is scum and it's agh. i dont know im very nervous to be wrong because im under pressure and my reads tend to break under pressure but i genuinely feel like this is right.

I am not as confident in my ability to read Dunn as Nora is

I am actually at a peak low in confidence right now in general. but i just ugh i dont know. like im being tunneled and it's affecting my read on the game in general. and dunn is one of the few people i feel like i can read and theres just a lot of internal paranoia because of the game state and trying to read dunn.

i have a lot of worries about this read because i struggle with my own thought process a lot of the times. like what's going through my head, i kid you not, is like
dunn has to be scum
what if im pushing dunn because i want to live another day
what if dunn isnt scum and then i die tomorrow because i mislimmed them
no no dunn has to be scum
but dunn could maybe say that as town
what if dunn's meta completely changed
what if im being overconfident
no no dunn is scum
oh wait i could maybe see town dunn saying that
oh my god people are agreeeing with me, so im wrong right
wait but thats not a good metric
agh maybe im overconfident
no dunn is scum

this is the best i've ever explained my read on dunn but everyone agreeing still freaks me out. if everyone does end up agreeing, it means the read is wrong. just saying.

you know i really want to say dunn is town simply because prism agrees but that is probably not a good idea.

Noraa can you explain your change in attitude and general approach this game?
What’s the game plan? Why were you more mature this game than usual? What changed in how you decided to respond to people?
Why do you seem a little bit sad at the beginning of the game? Why did you delay your solving? Why did you try to present yourself as patient at the beginning of the game? Why did you ask for a truce with Andante? What do you think of Ydrasse right now?

I’m not sure if any of these questions will help me reach the right conclusions but it’s worth a shot.

i dont want to answer most of these questions because i want to stop playing such an emotionally invested game and explaining these things will only make me more emotionally invested.
i asked for a truce because i dont want a 1v1 with andante on day 1 like page 3. total waste of time for absolutely everyone because no one is going to be able to read either of us off of it. we arent going to read each other off of it. nothing comes from it.

i think if dunn is scum, ydra makes a lot of sense as a partner especially with the early saying wanting to pair with dunn and then immediately dropping that idea. i dont reeally like drawing associations though so tentative.

datisi whcih of me and dunn is more likely scum

dunn

if it wasn't clear, i am leaning towards accepting your proposal, but making decisions in mafia games is scary and i'd rather shitpost a little bit more before actually pulling the trigger

ok i can understand that. i just felt like all this situation can be summed up into that question.
oh wait actually
HOLD UP


i have an idea. it's slightly dumb but think about it. If we leave me, dunn and datisi unpaired, then me dying would confscum dunn. it's clear dunn is a greater asset to town than me. if dunn dies, well that would mean i was wrong on them. and datisi cannot die since datisi is the only lady.

i almost want to say i'd rather we leave out ceph today becuase im going to feel bad about dunn regardless of what they flip. becuase if they flip town, my overconfidence killed them and i die the next day so it's just chaining up town eliminations. if they flip scum, i also feel bad because they could've been alive at endgame and played an excellent game which would have been completely shattered by me. sigh ok whatever. im going to iso a couple more times datisi dont accept yet.
if dunn is town, i'd rather leave day 1 than have them leave

i don't actually think people do townread softer stances as a general rule. i should know, i basically put out nothing but soft stances ever

scum dunn balances it out better than you do. if you are too soft with stances, you look too agreeable and then people think ur just scum thats ok with everyone but yourself

i think dunn is scum and if i thought dunn was town, i would entirely be willing to be left out if it were me vs them.
dunn is on the verge of death. there are only 2 pairs left. Both you and lukewarm have proposed. dunn is absolutely on the verge of death.

Mala dont make any impuslive decisions please. lukewarm is like the most transparent town in the world. Like if we leave ceph instead of dunn, that's somewhat acceptable. but it's not acceptable to leave lukewarm

Spoiler: Bell's push on Dunnstral

Noraa’s case on dunn is good enough for me.

All I have to add to it for context is that dunnstral(not sure if they add for or against it)

Is that the last(and only) time I ran into Dunn scum they asked some very inane questions and made some very inane points. Which they did here until transitioning out of it for the most part. I also know that Dunn has joined a lot of dance games so I expect higher levels of investment for him as either alignment. Because he revealed the secret that the more interested he is in a game the more he posts in it.
And I guess because he keeps joining dance games he likes them very much.

Phone post. Woo.

1. Noraa has been unique this game. A lot less aggri, a lot more organized, they gave themselves a time limit of 20 pages and I’m used to them just solving solving solving. So it feels out of character. I’m also not sure what to make of their instant collapse into self-recrimination about a dunn town flip, since they don’t actually do that when they’re town until after the flip and sometimes not even then if I remember correctly. It’s possible it’s designed just to look like they don’t know. On the other hand, they set themselves up as the Dunn expert so it’s a unique situation. I don’t think their credibility will be shot as much as they think, but I also don’t even know why I’m saying this because goddamn, if there’s one thing I don’t need more of this game it’s town reads.

do noraa and dunn have history and is ze usually able to read them well?

Yes. They’ve been consistently good about reading them. I have no idea if it’s luck. Given their reasoning has been down right terrible sometimes. But they were still right anyway. So *wiggles hands*

I mean, I already explained why I find dunn scum plausible.
Primarily because while he always jumps on the complain train when I get town binned as a word of caution.
Some of his questions have down right sucked and I associate that specifically with scum Dunn because he did that one whole time and thus it is always true from now until the end of time.

I encourage anyone interested in what Bell is saying here to read through these and form your own opinions as to why I mentioned Luke and Noraa but not Bell when talking about players pushing me.

[Dunnstral]

3/5 of Bell's push is actually just hiding behind Noraa anyway

[Bell]

It’s true, I love hiding behind people. You should have seen me when I was 5. I was a classic skirt hider.

[Cephrir]

Was not even a little interested in what Bell was saying there and a bit puzzled you'd expect anyone other than Bell to care about it

[Dunnstral]

I’ve been pretty clear that I think you might be scum independently of what Noraa is saying because I haven’t touched on that argument at all.

Is this true Cephrir?

[Bell]

That sort of huge comparison list, while fruitful in that it shows that Dunn is right in that Luke is pushing Dunn quite hard and comparing it to mine. Defeats its purpose because Dunn also does the huge counter arguments thing as scum. Which I imagine must be extremely annoying from his perspective if he’s town because he’s damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.

*cough* I’m sorry.

[Dunnstral]

Dunn also does the huge counter arguments thing as scum.

What do I do as town?

[Bell]

Dunn also does the huge counter arguments thing as scum.

What do I do as town?

You get sassy.

[Cephrir]

I’ve been pretty clear that I think you might be scum independently of what Noraa is saying because I haven’t touched on that argument at all.

Is this true Cephrir?

Kinda. There's 578 and 623. I don't know what is supposed to be so inane about your posts and questions though

[Dunnstral]

Dunn also does the huge counter arguments thing as scum.

What do I do as town?

You get sassy.

So to be clear, are you saying that I don't counter with arguments when I'm town?

[fireisredsir]

Dunn also does the huge counter arguments thing as scum.

What do I do as town?

You get sassy.

he seems kinda sassy here

[Bell]

No. But you’re a lot more dismissive and there’s a personal quality to it. There’s a low key “you’re an idiot” vibe to your responses as town. while I feel like you’re more sincere at addressing the “arguments” when you’re scum.

…not sure why you asked that question specifically to cephrir. But yes to my knowledge, I never addressed Nora’s points. I basically sort of kind of but reluctantly think noraa might (see all the qualifiers I’m using) have a good gut instinct on you. That they fill up with bad rationalizations afterwords. I think I’ve been consistent in that regard if you pay close attention.

[Noraa]

fire didnt you say you were busy? btw i do still think the elimination should be between cephrir, dunn, and i. so i dont think fire or datisi should accept anything yet. mala should accept lukewarm asap though

[Bell]

Huh, you’re not wrong on second look Red, but it looks more sarcastic to me than sassy.

[Noraa]

im scared tbh.
because if dunn is scum, that offers so much information on so many people but if dunn is town, it offers no information and i die tomorrow pretty much every single time. an di think datisi is town so two town die tomorrow if dunn is town.

[Dunnstral]

but it looks more sarcastic to me than sassy.

Good enough for me

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Noraa]

but dunn just .. gah doesnt feel town!!

[Bell]

Classic self fulfilling prophecy talk right there. Your overall emotional approach to this still confuses me, but I mean.
Mm. I can tell you’re getting your claws out and trying to drag Dunnstral into the abyss now. Which shows investment. Mixed signals Nornor.