Mini 2270: Spring Fling!

[Bell]

Hell, it probably reinforced zir read.

[Dunnstral]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13309638

107-270, 1013

Sorry, what is this for?

Alright humor for me a bit, this is going to be a complicated post.

The setup:

The setup is 3 merlins and 5 vanilla town vs 3 mafia . Each merlin knows the identity of 1 mafia, and the merlin's know each others identities.
At the start of the game, mafia are given a list of 5 players, containing all 3 merlins and 2 vanilla town. They know the merlins are in this list and cannot kill anyone on this list during the first night.
If mafia correctly guess all 3 merlins and pair them up to the correct mafia member, they win. They can do this even if they have all been eliminated.

The players:
I was town
Noraa was town
fireisredsir replaced in as town after I had already died (I don't think this is relevant)
Enchant was mafia

----------

Alright, the stage is set. It's important to realize that this game ran concurrently with this one but started earlier, that is to say, while I was being pushed by Noraa in this game, I had already been miseliminated by them in that game, but it wasn't legal to bring that game up at the time. It's also worth noting that Noraa was not dead, so since fireisredsir was town they would not have been able to take advantage of any information from that game.

I could talk about how Enchant say noraa push me as town and that even after that game ended, they would not give any kind of a read on me, and that they never mentioned anything at all about me or noraa in this game, but I'm going to take a different approach and argued that Enchant is mafia in this game and

used information in this game in order to make a decision in that game

.

First I'm going to go over how that game ended. All 3 mafia were eliminated, and the mafia, including Enchant, had 2 days to deliberate on the merlins and come to an agreement.
They did not come to an agreement. It came down to a 2-1 vote.
Remember how I said that 2 of the vanilla townies would make it into that list of 5 the mafia got? By sheer coincidence, the 2 vanilla townies on that list were myself and Noraa.

Let's sneak a peak at the discussion in the mafia pt for that game, because I feel it is important:

Thoughts on the Muses?

[redacted per request]

[redacted per request]

Noraa pushed out Dunn day 1 - doesn't seem like Muse behaviour to me. I still believe Butterflies/implosion are both Muses and I think Italiano is one as well. Look at day 1 - Galron on Umlaut and butterflies sheeping.

So pause - you'll notice that Enchant

redacted every single post they made in that scum thread before it was released

. With that being said, context clues from the other members reveals that Enchant thinks that both Noraa and myself are Merlins (Muses).

Isn't that strange? They just watched Noraa push me to death, but they think we are muses together. It's a stretch to come to that conclusion using

just that game

as a reference point.

Remember, this game was happening at the same time. Noraa made no mention of that game in this game, indeed they couldn't, but let's assume that Enchant has an informed position in this game as well. They know that Noraa and I are both town, and he watches as Noraa makes claims that they are really accurate at reading me, even though

he knows that noraa knows this to be false or an exaggeration

. Enchant then comes to a conclusion... in order for what Noraa is saying in the dance game to make sense, they have to have bussed their own merlin in the merlin game, thereby their read was never "wrong" in that game.

Do you really think a Muse got condemned day 1 and everyone was fine with it?

[redacted per request]

ok well I don't think a Muse gets condemned day 1.

In the end, Enchant manages to convince 1 mafia player that Noraa and myself are both merlins in that game, while the other is left unconvinced and says they will go with majority.
That other mafia player came to the correct conclusions: they looked at who pushed who in that thread and correctly matched every merlin to their mafia counterpart, but because Enchant was operating using information they couldn't even share with their team, they came to a different conclusion and were unable to convince the last mafia member of their viewpoint.

That's my case, and if you asked me if I believed it I would say yes, I think this is pretty likely. As for Enchant redacting their posts:

@Enchant, why did you redact every single one of your posts?

Because i am not happy with how this game went.

You all can decide if the reason they gave is convincing, or if perhaps it relates to this game.

[Dunnstral]

Yeah I left prism unsorted because I wanted to see what Prism would do D2.

They didn't do much on day 2. Why did you say you had them as town?

[Dunnstral]

Um. I’ll just state that dunnstral’s response, activity/etc are all vastly different to the response they’ve had here.

I started posting at around post 100 and got eliminated at around post 200

I barely had time to address anything and then 2 people voted me at the same time and ended the day

[Malakittens]

Okay. Summarize thoughts

I don't want Bell to propose to: Dunn, Datisi, ceph, Fire, Myko, Enchant

That leaves: me, gin, andante

Hmmm. Maybe I am my own top choice now?

Need sleep, this is as far as I'm getting tonight

rude </3

and here i thought we had something

[Dunnstral]

Hell, it probably reinforced zir read.

Yeah? Look at what I was looking at when I pushed them:

Spoiler: That Game

Two players you’re particularly good at reading are Dunn and Math

Appreciate your trust in me nancy <333
im not 100% on this dunn read atm. chances are that it flips scum anyways but i do wish to be 100% certain before shoving the wagon hard.

tbh how about we just vote out dunn and if im wrong (which im probably not), oh well.

Spoiler: This Game

I am not as confident in my ability to read Dunn as Nora is

I am actually at a peak low in confidence right now in general. but i just ugh i dont know. like im being tunneled and it's affecting my read on the game in general. and dunn is one of the few people i feel like i can read and theres just a lot of internal paranoia because of the game state and trying to read dunn.

i have a lot of worries about this read because i struggle with my own thought process a lot of the times. like what's going through my head, i kid you not, is like
dunn has to be scum
what if im pushing dunn because i want to live another day
what if dunn isnt scum and then i die tomorrow because i mislimmed them
no no dunn has to be scum
but dunn could maybe say that as town
what if dunn's meta completely changed
what if im being overconfident
no no dunn is scum
oh wait i could maybe see town dunn saying that
oh my god people are agreeeing with me, so im wrong right
wait but thats not a good metric
agh maybe im overconfident
no dunn is scum

i almost want to say i'd rather we leave out ceph today becuase im going to feel bad about dunn regardless of what they flip. becuase if they flip town, my overconfidence killed them and i die the next day so it's just chaining up town eliminations. if they flip scum, i also feel bad because they could've been alive at endgame and played an excellent game which would have been completely shattered by me. sigh ok whatever. im going to iso a couple more times datisi dont accept yet.
if dunn is town, i'd rather leave day 1 than have them leave

[Dunnstral]

Okay. Summarize thoughts

I don't want Bell to propose to: Dunn, Datisi, ceph, Fire, Myko, Enchant

That leaves: me, gin, andante

Hmmm. Maybe I am my own top choice now?

Need sleep, this is as far as I'm getting tonight

Why Myko here (which would kill Enchant)?

[Bell]

Fair.

[Lukewarm]

Okay. Summarize thoughts

I don't want Bell to propose to: Dunn, Datisi, ceph, Fire, Myko, Enchant

That leaves: me, gin, andante

Hmmm. Maybe I am my own top choice now?

Need sleep, this is as far as I'm getting tonight

Why Myko here (which would kill Enchant)?

Mainly because I am suspicious of both, and they have been my top choice for us to vote out in the next phase, so swapping Bell into the pair would mess that up.

Myko would not be the worst choice, I quite liked your case on Enchant.

[Lukewarm]

I am vaguely against Bell proposing to myko, because I want to kill myko and enchant tomorrow.

[Dunnstral]

[Lukewarm]

I really like your enchanct case. Both in it being a compelling argument, while not one that I think you would make as scum.

In an unexpected turn of events, I think Dunn is town.

[fireisredsir]

i agree that dunn is p unlikely to make that case as scum

[Dunnstral]

Even if you don't fully buy in to 1601, at the very least it shows that in the merlin game Enchant did indeed accuse Noraa and myself of bussing, which means they very likely went back to that section of the game and reread it. The part where Noraa pushed me. With that fresh in his mind, I asked him multiple times in this game, after the merlin game was over, to produce a read on myself. Responses ranged from "no read" to eventually "mafia" but only after I called them mafia first, and still with no explanation for their read. In fact, they seem to be going out of their way to avoid giving a reason in this game.

[Andante]

can I leave the dance in this phase or do we have to wait for Bell to do his thing? I'm even more convinced prism was maf

[Andante]

the new prism came into the PT telling me how to look less scummy... but that they think I'm town.... that is a mafia slot!!!!

[Dunnstral]

can I leave the dance in this phase

Yeah, you can

[Andante]

I think I'll wait till morning to actually leave though... lol I'm too tired for this... saw a lot of words in that PT... and we called me scummy.. but scummy town, and like nahhhh we're not discussing my playstyle in that PT... hahahhaha ok I'm sleeping before I actually mess this up. I do NOT tr prism slot.

[Lukewarm]

Read through Dunn's case again. Dunn is definitely town.

I also fully buy the scum case on Enchant (helps that I was already scum reading him, but that was a compelling case)

[Dunnstral]

OK. Also, you can't actually leave until the next phase, I just wanted to see whether you were blustering or would actually go through with it and attempt to leave.

[Andante]

Dunn and Cephrir are town

[Andante]

OK. Also, you can't actually leave until the next phase, I just wanted to see whether you were blustering or would actually go through with it and attempt to leave.

I'm dead serious. I want to leave. my partner is mafia. and I highly doubt anyone wants bell with me cause all yall were like "TAKE PRISM!!!" that prism slot is mafia I tell you... it is not town at alllll

[Cephrir]

Thanks ceph scum.

thanks normal bell.

[Cephrir]

you don't have to say scum it is implied by the sneer with which i imagine you deign to utter my wretched name

[Andante]

Ceph, how's Fire in your PT?