Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[fireisredsir]

fire can you show me you've actually re-assessed your read of me at any point

i am going to do a full reread now with what you've said in mind and see if i can see it from the perspective you've given

[Datisi]

i think only one of fire/mala is scum at this point

the other in nk15/ari? (going off your current coalition.) any thoughts on ari other than 695?

[Save The Dragons]

i'm not sure.

could be nk15, but i'm also thinking mala just capitalized on an incorrect read to try and increase paranoia in the thread and increase her chance of getting into a coalition

maybe i'm wrong and it's fire still
it could be ari but i still think she's town

i don't really think it's you, irrelephant, or skitter and probably not menalque

[Save The Dragons]

my reads are probably bad and maybe my coalition shouldn't go through :S

i should clarify i think ari is town by play but i'm just most paranoid of that slot but then i go back to maybe that's what scum want me to think so i'm kind of spinning in circles

[Datisi]

i dunno i'm like

i wanna put ari in the coalition because i think she's town and if she's scum then the game is in a fucked up state anyway and if she's town the odds of the coalition being Good increase

and i just remembered her talking about not wanting to be in the coalition and i'm not sure if that went anywhere and i hope it did not

[Irrelephant11]

Let’s just do me/fire/std/NK15/mala
Simple, easy, everyone can get on biard

[Irrelephant11]

@Fire I don’t think you’ll keep both me and std out of the coalition. Which of us do you scumread more and why?
(Towncasing std currently)

[fireisredsir]

ok im looking for places where std is driving the game and taking charge

his entrance def is not

his series of posts 101, 105, 106 i don't feel like is. naked vote/heals and then has to be prodded to explain them? the explanations are fine, but it's not very active.

121 and 122 not really it either. im looking for places where you are trying to move the game forward and get things going. you're present so far, yes, but it's all reactive and p passive.

139 is the first one! this is a proactive question. gj. townpoints

the thing with menalque 152 is... ok, i didn't love the way that you pretty quickly backed off on it once challenged. it could be town who is honestly unsure of things, but to me it felt and feels like scum being hesitant to put yourself out there and feeling like you may have bit off a bit more than you could chew and wanting to get back out

174 and 176 kinda towny, moving things forward, ig i can see why ari felt you had more of that energy since you were engaging with her here (actually makes me feel better about ari since i didn't understand why she read you that way)

you engaged with me a little around 204 but idk if thats very ai since i had just called out my suspicion on you

next is 292. fine, but fairly passive. then some theory talk with menalque which doesn't do much for me either way. 301 kinda towny tho.

432 is what i was talking about as a Good Post. like on the face of it yea ig it looks sorta towny, but you are capable of doing that as scum, and to me it doesn't really look that active. none of it really demands or even expects a response. it clarifies your own reads, but doesn't push things forward. and that's fine! im not saying you shouldn't make those posts or that you're scum bc of them. im just saying they aren't what make you town

494 and surrounding is p good. active engagement. that said, i feel like at this point sorting based on this gets a little bit murkier bc you've already been called out for it now, and so as scum you likely would make an attempt to rectify that.

so...

i think there are some places where i felt like you were being proactive and trying to move things forward. i still feel like they were relatively minor, and for most of the game you were content to be in the background. in the scum game i linked earlier though you also did ask people questions and engage with them at times, so it's not like that's clearing. i think you did it there even more than this, game, actually. idk. i feel like my read has slightly improved but not enough for it to not be a scumread.

[fireisredsir]

Let’s just do me/fire/std/NK15/mala
Simple, easy, everyone can get on biard

this is 200iq actually, bc if the coalition fails we elim inside the coalition, so we can just put top scumreads in there instead and then chain lim them all

new meta

@Fire I don’t think you’ll keep both me and std out of the coalition. Which of us do you scumread more and why?
(Towncasing std currently)

well i sure would like to! i kinda think that both of your most likely partners are each other so for me its kind of a package deal actually. i can see reasons to townread you both so idk it might depend on who else is being left out. if i absolutely have to pick one without any other context i probably want std in

[Save The Dragons]

i like 932

[Irrelephant11]

well i sure would like to! i kinda think that both of your most likely partners are each other

this is actually a major reason I townread std

[Irrelephant11]

i like 932

[Save The Dragons]

why do you think we're partners

[fireisredsir]

std - based 90% on vibes I think he's town, needs a re-eval before end of phase. Could be scum with anyone, really, except fire

what changed from this, irrel?

[fireisredsir]

why do you think we're partners

i felt like the way irrel was positioning himself earlier was setting up a narrative of either him or you being scum (he talked about it in a kind of weird 3rd person way in 644 and 649). he has also at times taken steps towards seeing that exactly one of you/him would be in the coalition. post 478 was especially notable, where he said he was willing to leave himself out alongside mala/nk/me, sort of like a reaching across the aisle thing to compromise with me i guess. and of my scumreads he chose you to be the one remaining in the coalition

[Irrelephant11]

Just had a fun idea of sorting StD’s by pointing out key posts as scum or town posts and seeing what pops out.

18 is the first heal, on someone who had just done something lightly towny (fire) 101 is the start of a long list of times where StD healed someone and at the time I thought “yes that’s exactly right, that’s who’s towniest based on the game so far” Actually let me just add the rest of the list here as I go: 121, 170, 192,
[post]106 had what I felt were good points on datisi and fire and skitter, felt like real solving. I do remember being both impressed and surprised by the quick de-escalation of 117. Not sure that means anything AI though.
122 felt like the excited town vibe I expect from town in this setup. It’s like a fun race to gather four townies and go “yay I got 5” and that’s why I’ve played this setup so much and I felt that vibe in this post and I don’t think scum thinks to fake that?
125 and 139 seemed reasonable. I guess otoh they don’t really remove the possibility of those two scum pairings like I wish they did.
149, 152, 158 is a realistic sorting push on menalque, though I am a bit surprised at how it didn’t go anywhere. Like it started so strong and fizzled so fast. This led to some of my std/menalque paranoia later
170 was a strong townvibe post for me, *even more so* because he later updates the list twice. Aside from being funny, it’s also just kind of audacious for scum to be like “I did it!” “No I didn’t but now I did!” and I think that sort of flip flopping is towny. I suppose the fact std is always in his coalitions makes this less towny than I want it to be, though?
179 --> 182 felt real. 192 was a mindmeld for me.
292 I thought std townreading menalque for whiteknighting me was towny. Goes away if they’re s/s I guess, because I’m maybe just their target to pocket?? 300, 301 feel like a genuine effort to sort menalque though. Actually the overall trajectory on menalque seems real (313. I think.
Antacid jokes were funny, doesn’t make him town but does contrast with fire’s read that “scum std doesn’t want to be there” – it seemed like dragons wanted to hang in the thread, was having a good time. Jokes about the word “ping” too
432 was a good post
488 suggests nk/std team less likely
More back and forth with menalque around 500… meh not doing anything for me
616 was a mindmeld
I read 621 just now and thought “wait I literally thought I wrote that post. I remember writing that post. So mindmeld ig
694, 695 mindmeld. Like. I feel pretty darn confident std is town because if he’s scum I guess his plan was “somehow know everything irrelephant will think and often type it first”

I don’t have time to keep going right now, I wrote the below paragraph on and off while writing everything above. Enjoy this post it’s my Thursday Mafia Effort Post




I think everything about fire is now shouting town by play… except that I’m still scumreading the trajectory of slowly trying to replace me/std in the coalition. The one thing that feels like, starkly missing if he’s town is working harder to turn around the collective townread on me (because despite both his and my objections I’m showing up in most coalitions) or a reconsideration that since so many people are townreading me (including his townreads) I just might be town. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm is it skitter/mala or skitter/nk15 and she’s just playing as if she’s solo town, knowing she gets coalition’d in most realities, while her partner… doesn’t play?
Wait I haven’t cleared menalque either yet, probably should reread menalque before skitter. I’m doing so much work just on the chance it’s not NK/mala and that is… something.

[Save The Dragons]

@fire

i dunno if i agree because i've been pretty vocal about including both of us in the coalition and even if he's said it i don't think he's taken me out

[Irrelephant11]

Just had a fun idea of sorting StD’s by pointing out key posts as scum or town posts and seeing what pops out.

Lol forgot this was what I set out to do. Ignore this

[Irrelephant11]

@fire

i dunno if i agree because i've been pretty vocal about including both of us in the coalition and even if he's said it i don't think he's taken me out

I did offer to leave myself out of the coalition and my current coalition doesn’t include me so I get fire’s point. But I also think we’re both town and I would hammer a coalition with both of us

[fireisredsir]

well i sure would like to! i kinda think that both of your most likely partners are each other

this is actually a major reason I townread std

std - based 90% on vibes I think he's town, needs a re-eval before end of phase. Could be scum with anyone, really, except fire

what changed from this, irrel?

[fireisredsir]

to be specific

it sounds like in quote 1 that you are saying that you are townreading him bc you agree his most likely partner is you, and you know you're town, so therefore he doesn't have any likely partners fypov

but in quote 2 you say he could be scum with anyone

[Irrelephant11]

I am saying that I am townreading him bc I agree his most likely partner is me fypov, and I know I’m town, so I shouldn’t sheep town!you on reading std. Other partners do still exist for him (namely mala, nk15… sometimes my paranoia says menalque)

I got there by trying to figure out if you (fire) could be town:
Fireisredsir says I’m scum, and says std is scum
If fireisredsir is scum, I highly doubt std is scum. In this situation, std is town
If fireisredsir is town, I could see him thinking me and std are scum doing a “we’re both town put us both in // wait swerve irrelephant is going to exit the coalition” strategy. That’s a way to scumread std that makes some sense – as partners with me. And in fact my play matches that scenario pretty well, so I could see it. I’m not sure there’s any other potential non-nk, non-mala partners who are doing this with std, so fire’s logic is internally consistent in thinking we’re scum together (Aside from us both being towny imo). In fact, if I were fire I think having a strong scumread on std would be pretty dependent on him having a partner whose behavior matches mine - I think that probably means that std isn’t scum, because there’s no one else who’s doing this. In this situation, std is town.

300 posts ago I wasn’t trying as hard to get into your (fire’s) head so I hadn’t gotten here yet.

[Irrelephant11]

Sorry for ugly blocks of text y’all I keep writing these in Word documents while I scroll through the game and then copy/pasting and forgetting that the extra spacing goes away

[Irrelephant11]

HURT: all
HEAL: fireisredsir
Save the dragons
Me
Aristeia

[Irrelephant11]

Writing 948 made me realize fire is probably town

Not sure who I have the least paranoia about to fill my fifth spot
Gonna sit and wait a bit