Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[skitter30]

I made it *very* clear that i didn't want ari in, and that i only ultimately voted her as a compromise so that i'd be voting for something semi- viable at deadline.

i mean yes you made it very clear you did not want ari in, but you also kept hinting that you could i guess maybe vote there and you did approximately nothing to push std into a coalition so...

i have to pretend to be a contributing member to society for a bit but i'll write out a bigger post later today

i mean it was very non-ideal but i wanted to be voting for something viable
like do you think i should have not thought about including ari and stuck with a coalition that i know would not have gone through? i only started seriously considering putting her in like late thursday afternoon-ish. given my reads, how do you think i ought to have approached the coalition vote eod here?
and i didn't do 'approximately nothing to push std into a coalition', ty.

wrt nk15:

but instead scumread enough other players to get him into the coalition, flip him, then carry myself

a) if you're scum with him, and one of you need to go in, i think it's better for you to try to get in than what you're proposing, which is to: purposefully put him in, bus him, and hard carry afterwards? like you're telling me that this is actually how you approach this game from the getgo??? i don't think that's likely at all ... from the beginning you were way more townread than him, and i don't htink anyone was seriouisly calling for your head other than me (i.e. so it's not like you had significant reason to believe you would get flipped first if you got in), and at the point i said that nk15 wasn't viable to get in at all.
b) again i'm dubious that you even could make that happen to begin with given the gamestate. in a vaccuum you're way more likely to get into the coalition than him always, and i tbh i think you'd have to burn *a lot* of cred to get him in. i'm kinda incredulous that you think that this could be a viable plan for a you/nk15 team

he's also being sus as anything today, the hammer doesn't make sense given his reads (he voted for 2 people to be in the coalition that he spent the entire day1 saying were svs), he hasn't explained why he did that, and he's now trying to introduce other scumteams

(5) if the scumteam is me/nk, then nk is never getting flipped before me. so you'll only be looking for nk AFTER i'm confirmed to flip red. and i make that post explaining why nk is not lockscum when he's never getting voted before me because ???

i don't understand this point and why you wouldn't do this

[skitter30]

Day 2 has strengthened my townread on Aristeia and my scumread on mena
Datisi and skitter are each, if scum, knocking it out of the park.

i'm very, very unlikely to be voting mena today, i'd vote u before him

[skitter30]

where skitter was very much open to the idea of ari being in a coalition, or like slowly nudging in that direction

This is reductive and not my actual position

I made it *very* clear that i didn't want ari in, and that i only ultimately voted her as a compromise so that i'd be voting for something semi- viable at deadline.

I don't actually know which coalition you wanted that excluded both me and datisi.

as far as I remember you wanted irrel/yourself/mena/std but you didn't have a fifth?

that is correct. i never got to a satisfactory fifth
i was lowky thinking fire but i never fully got there/i don't think i voiced that

[Save The Dragons]

can you like make a case for mena being town skitter

[skitter30]

I don't think you quite understand how to play mafia alignment if you think a mafia skitter would be content to sit still and poke/prod

without shaping the game state towards mis-eliminating townies because that's *literally* her win condition if she is mafia.

As for why skitter would push me -> like mala/nk15 have both indicated they thought I was at the top of their scum list[which makes me viable for being eliminated], she's a town leader and she already set up a trajectory to push me for "paranoia" and being the failure point on her coalition - it allows her to push through this day phase without doing meaningful re-evaluation of her original coalition.

The goal of being scum is to kill people who are town, one of the central tenets of that is to have a believable push progression; it is fairly trivial and simple for her to continue her push against me, it is far simpler and cleaner for her to do than to flip a read on say irrel or mena because that would be complicated - she has to actually push someone inside the coalition as being mafia.

i mean tbf i'm kinda unlikely to be flipped today at all going into the day
by default therefore someone else is so i therefor don't think scum-me needs to exert much energy to force a particular flip or not. like unless you think there's 2 scum in the coalition (and apparently you don't) i don't think i need to take direct/forceful action to make the bolded happen coming into the day as scum here
also idk why i lolswitch the trajectory from dats to you, that's not how scum-me rolls

(also @fire not sure it makes sense for scum-me to end up on std vs mena if i'm partnered with mena? i could be wrong but i don't think that's what i would do)

[skitter30]

i think specifically in the position she is in in the current gamestate with the current level of suspicion on her she would be more likely to lose standing by making that push and there's very little she could gain from it, and i think she as scum would know that

the gain would be eliminating me, it would be [1/3] of the way to winning for her.

i mean so would eliminating ... town-dats
(or town-irrel or town-mena ...)
(and flipping irrel or dats would make it easier to flip you later, no?)

[skitter30]

and when NK15 votes me (this really should be kind of expected because he's been tunneling me all game for garbage reasons) - she seems surprised? Which is kind of ????? because in her original post about voting me she is basically pegging the scum team as me/nk15 which makes sense due to his meta of derptunneling his teammate so why is she even asking him why he's voting for me ???

no, no, not surprised, just wanted him to say in his own words why he picked you over dats
and it made me think him/dats was more likely
i also don't think he ever answered that

i also kinda said i was playing this half-effort -> a lot of details were not at the forefront of my mind at any given moment

[skitter30]

if you think that her actions so far this phase have meaningfully advanced the gamestate toward a goal of eliminating you and remaining as a town leader afterwards then tbh i think you're misreading the gamestate. i think they've done the opposite if anything

I mean she doesn't know how the push will go before she makes it?

like everything involves risk. You're townreading her for her push failing. This is kind of similar to Prism trying to push me and getting shoved back and doing a reflexive stepback.

Mafia do not know which pushes will work when they try them - they can only make an educated guess and try their best.

(fwiw i don't think i push you here as scum. i think i *would* have a decent idea for how it'd go, and that it wouldn't work, and i don't htink i'd have tried it at all. take that as you will tho)

[Datisi]

attempting to analyze skitter's coalition preferences and pushes, starting from page 24:

page 24 is the first time ari offers to sheep skitter. 591 is skitt having a preference of skitt/dats/irrel/std/mena, idk who to go after if that fails. then we figure out the deadline is not as short, ok cool there's more time.

but yeah i guess i'll go through the thought experiment:

ari agreeing to be left out of a coalition of me/irrel/mena/std/dats
means it doesn't make sense for her to be scum with fire/mala/nk15

tbh i don't see anything impossible for ari + any of irrel/mena/std/dats

this is the next relevant post in the skitt/ari discussion - where skitter says it doesn't make sense for ari to be scum with a "lower-rated" player but does with a "higher-rated" player (you know what i mean)

Probably still you but apparently i relish paranoia and indecision
I.e. i'm still not confident on a 5th yet, if i had to pick one would probably be you but still not confident enuf to settle on that if that makes sense

I will probably get over this closer to deadline

next relevant post - skitter says she still prefers skitt/dats/irrel/std/mena, with me being lowest confidence

next relevant post...

i think if ari is scum she's likely scum with someone who is already in, and so there is very little utility to leaving her out

... honestly this is a p good point

Tbh the more I think abt it from this pov i'm not entirelu opposed to putting ari in
(On the condition that if it fails and she doesnt, like, solve the game she gets flipped before elo)

is skitter saying how fire has a point in his analysis and basically saying she could maybe sorta put ari into the coalition.

Mala do u have any response to my posts towards u on the prior page?

I'm leaning towards me/mena/irrel/std + one of ari/dats/fire rn

again, this is like, not showing a huge preference on which person gets added as the 5th.

And then i guess i kinda vibe with fire's point that if ari is scum its probably with someone in the consensus coalition anyways, so i'm no longer entirely opposed

I guess i dont object to putting ari in but i'd want her to go in with dats, and i want the condition to be that if its elo and she hasnt found all the scum, she gets flipped
Otherwise i probably want dats in

i cut this post a bit but the important part is that skitter was decently fine with ari being in a coalition, mostly due to fire's arguments

I think if you want to be the leader here you should put the reads you feel confident in.

I have a lot of thoughts about Dats and I'm not sure how helpful it will be for you to read them but I can write them down if you want me to.

I'm not confident I can find scum!him.

I mean i dont think i indicated i wanted to be a leader here at all >.> my reads arent confident enuf , and its not like i'm strongly pushing a given coalition either

And if ur not confident in dats either idk if i want to pit him in, but then it's hard for me to find a confident fifth

this is the next relevant post, where ari is nudging skitter to be a leader, and she openly says that she doesn't want to be the leader, she's not feeling confident enough, she's not strongly pushing, etc

1038 is a hmm post to me because i felt like std was viable at the time and the fact that she was going "is std viable? no? i guess i can remove him..." is Concerning

I think he knows I'm very hard to mis-eliminate so putting me into a coalition really is limiting his own mislim opportunities and making it harder for himself post-coalition failure and I'm not sure why he would want to do that? It really does feel like he wants a coalition that will work.

Ty for writing that all out, i appreciate it

I think the above is a cogent point + there's quite a lot of depth/nuance here that i had to ask for (i.e. it doesnt seem like a read that you made up to share to look Nuanced, its more just something internally that youu were wresting with that you shared when i asked), which makes me think its more likely real

this is a kind of a townread of ari

I still reallh want me/mena/irrel/std but alas we cannot all have the things we want

this is i think the last time skitter commented how much she wants the coalition, but immediately notes it's most likely not happening.

then it's mena appearing, the hammer, coalition failure, etc.

Me/mena/irrel/std

Ok so is this a viable core, and if yes, who should the fifth be?

we're all just guessing it's fine it's just a game

don't stress skitts pls let's make this a very low key and fun thing : )

I mean this is what i was pushing for a few days, you never seemed interested, and when i directly asked you this is what u answered

I also asked u directly about std a few posts down and you told me you wanted dats over him

this is what she says shortly after d2 starts.

and like, i have problems with her characterizing her posts on a coalition with std as "pushes" because all she did was ask a few times if a core that includes std is ok. like, that's not a push. she wasn't pushing for std to be included, she mentioned a few times that she townreads him (unless i missed it, it wasn't even explained why) and that she doesn't want ari and ari is not her first choice. except she also has so many posts on why she could maybe sorta put ari into the coalition.

[skitter30]

can you like make a case for mena being town skitter

- i don't think he's so out of tune with the viable coalitions as scum
- i don't think he's so picky about who gets in/out as scum
- he tries to buddy me more as scum / get on my good side / defer to my reads/pushes to try to win some points
- he tries to have more of an ~impact~ as scum, as town i don't think he cares (see: his last scumgame, where he faked a guilty on his partner. he's way more out of tune with what's going on rn)
- i think he'd try to keep up more and exert more influence as scum, here he's more laid back and less trying to control/direct things

in short i don't think how he's played this game is how he would have as scum

~

Final is me/ari/dats/relly/fire

although @mena: how did you end up with this coalition, wasn't your top-guess for scum earlier ari/fire?

[skitter30]

1038 is a hmm post to me because i felt like std was viable at the time and the fact that she was going "is std viable? no? i guess i can remove him..." is Concerning

plz elaborate how he was viable at that time, thank you
also nothing you posted prior to this was me strongly wanting ari in

[Aristeia]

where skitter was very much open to the idea of ari being in a coalition, or like slowly nudging in that direction

This is reductive and not my actual position

I made it *very* clear that i didn't want ari in, and that i only ultimately voted her as a compromise so that i'd be voting for something semi- viable at deadline.

I don't actually know which coalition you wanted that excluded both me and datisi.

as far as I remember you wanted irrel/yourself/mena/std but you didn't have a fifth?

that is correct. i never got to a satisfactory fifth
i was lowky thinking fire but i never fully got there/i don't think i voiced that

I think you said you were deciding between me/dats/fire and that fire was "borderline" and you also didnt want nk15 or mala.

[skitter30]

Spoiler:

Me/mena/irrel/std

Ok so is this a viable core, and if yes, who should the fifth be?

And if ur not confident in dats either idk if i want to pit him in, but then it's hard for me to find a confident fifth

is there anything i can do to make you sorting me easier? i know the answer is probably "no", but still.

What's your ideal coalition rn?
Do u want ari in it?
Are you ok with me/mena/irrel/std?

This doesnt exactly answer your question but will give me a better sense of where you're at

(Its been a Week and I've also been playing this on like half-effort >.> i dont know everyone's reads or what's even viable ...)
(And ahhhhhhhh paranoia why am i making any of these decisions???? Are my reads wrong???? Am i putting in blatant scum???)

What's your ideal coalition rn?
Do u want ari in it?
Are you ok with me/mena/irrel/std?

me/you/mena/ari/irrel
yes
no

i mean i vaguely get what irrel was saying about std being townie but the points did not register in my brain as "valid" and they won't until i sit down and reread his iso with those things in mind

ngl i was hoping mena was gonna be more around because i wanted to talk to him about it since he's got a similar read than i do but

Ok if std being in it isnt viable i can probably compromise on that but that is not my ideal, i really would like std in it

And honestly to be perfectly frank if it failed i would probably flip you first
Probablh something like dats -> mena -> ari -> irrel
Maybe swap mena/ari idk

i'm noting how you're skipping over me asking both you and ari if you'd include std here and you guys indicating that you wouldn't ... ?
i wouldn't have trusted nk15/mala saying they wanted my coalition tbh
that's when i decided the votes weren't there

[skitter30]

like how did you miss that sequence between 1026 and 1038 exactly @dats?

[Datisi]

I made it *very* clear that i didn't want ari in, and that i only ultimately voted her as a compromise so that i'd be voting for something semi- viable at deadline.

i mean yes you made it very clear you did not want ari in, but you also kept hinting that you could i guess maybe vote there and you did approximately nothing to push std into a coalition so...

i have to pretend to be a contributing member to society for a bit but i'll write out a bigger post later today

i mean it was very non-ideal but i wanted to be voting for something viable
like do you think i should have not thought about including ari and stuck with a coalition that i know would not have gone through? i only started seriously considering putting her in like late thursday afternoon-ish. given my reads, how do you think i ought to have approached the coalition vote eod here?
and i didn't do 'approximately nothing to push std into a coalition', ty.

no, i think town!you who thinks std is a much better candidate for a coalition than ari should have done more up to that point to actually try to get him into a coalition. failing to do that, i think town!you would've realized that you did not actually do that and wouldn't be making arguments that you are now because they assume that you spent a significant amount of effort getting std into a coalition, when you did not.

quote where you actually pushed std in.

wrt nk15:

but instead scumread enough other players to get him into the coalition, flip him, then carry myself

a) if you're scum with him, and one of you need to go in, i think it's better for you to try to get in than what you're proposing, which is to: purposefully put him in, bus him, and hard carry afterwards? like you're telling me that this is actually how you approach this game from the getgo??? i don't think that's likely at all ... from the beginning you were way more townread than him, and i don't htink anyone was seriouisly calling for your head other than me (i.e. so it's not like you had significant reason to believe you would get flipped first if you got in), and at the point i said that nk15 wasn't viable to get in at all.
b) again i'm dubious that you even could make that happen to begin with given the gamestate. in a vaccuum you're way more likely to get into the coalition than him always, and i tbh i think you'd have to burn *a lot* of cred to get him in. i'm kinda incredulous that you think that this could be a viable plan for a you/nk15 team

he's also being sus as anything today, the hammer doesn't make sense given his reads (he voted for 2 people to be in the coalition that he spent the entire day1 saying were svs), he hasn't explained why he did that, and he's now trying to introduce other scumteams

(5) if the scumteam is me/nk, then nk is never getting flipped before me. so you'll only be looking for nk AFTER i'm confirmed to flip red. and i make that post explaining why nk is not lockscum when he's never getting voted before me because ???

i don't understand this point and why you wouldn't do this

i'm not saying that would be my one and only plan. i'm not even saying it's "likely" that succeeds. but it is A Plan that Might work, and i have no reason to immediately shoot that plan into the foot by pointing out that nk15 is not townie and in fact here is a scumgame where he loltunnelled his partner!!

like idk why you're assuming as if scum!me can have only one plan and that scum!me can work towards only one plan at a time. it isn't unviable to be trying to get townread as a backup, but also not immediately sinking nk15 when people are townreading him for garbage reasons

i'm in the coalition. nk is out of the coalition. if we are a team, you are ALWAYS flipping me before him. which means that by the time you start looking for nk, I AM FLIPPED SCUM. with that knowledge in mind, i make an incriminating post towards my partner... WHY? (unless your answer is "wifom" to which my answer would be "i don't use wifom as scum like that because most of the townies only ever use level-zero-logic" but y'know.)

[Datisi]

Spoiler:

Me/mena/irrel/std

Ok so is this a viable core, and if yes, who should the fifth be?

And if ur not confident in dats either idk if i want to pit him in, but then it's hard for me to find a confident fifth

is there anything i can do to make you sorting me easier? i know the answer is probably "no", but still.

What's your ideal coalition rn?
Do u want ari in it?
Are you ok with me/mena/irrel/std?

This doesnt exactly answer your question but will give me a better sense of where you're at

(Its been a Week and I've also been playing this on like half-effort >.> i dont know everyone's reads or what's even viable ...)
(And ahhhhhhhh paranoia why am i making any of these decisions???? Are my reads wrong???? Am i putting in blatant scum???)

What's your ideal coalition rn?
Do u want ari in it?
Are you ok with me/mena/irrel/std?

me/you/mena/ari/irrel
yes
no

i mean i vaguely get what irrel was saying about std being townie but the points did not register in my brain as "valid" and they won't until i sit down and reread his iso with those things in mind

ngl i was hoping mena was gonna be more around because i wanted to talk to him about it since he's got a similar read than i do but

Ok if std being in it isnt viable i can probably compromise on that but that is not my ideal, i really would like std in it

And honestly to be perfectly frank if it failed i would probably flip you first
Probablh something like dats -> mena -> ari -> irrel
Maybe swap mena/ari idk

i'm noting how you're skipping over me asking both you and ari if you'd include std here and you guys indicating that you wouldn't ... ?
i wouldn't have trusted nk15/mala saying they wanted my coalition tbh
that's when i decided the votes weren't there

like how did you miss that sequence between 1026 and 1038 exactly @dats?

i didn't miss it, that's part of the problem. the first part is that that question was asked at a point where time was running short, but the biggest issue is that, once you're told std isn't our first preference, you go "yeah ok nvm i guess not" when like... you could've tried to change our mind? lay out why std is so incredibly townie to you?

[Aristeia]

i think specifically in the position she is in in the current gamestate with the current level of suspicion on her she would be more likely to lose standing by making that push and there's very little she could gain from it, and i think she as scum would know that

the gain would be eliminating me, it would be [1/3] of the way to winning for her.

i mean so would eliminating ... town-dats
(or town-irrel or town-mena ...)
(and flipping irrel or dats would make it easier to flip you later, no?)

well NK15 wanted to kill me or dats

and mala wanted to kill me

so wouldn't it make sense for you to push me given it's cleanest trajectory and you have 2 votes that are leaning that way already?

[Datisi]

like if you said "why do you not want std in? have you considered he's town because xyz" then like yeah i would've conceded you pushed your thing it didn't work. but where is you trying to change anyone's mind on him?

[Datisi]

1038 is a hmm post to me because i felt like std was viable at the time and the fact that she was going "is std viable? no? i guess i can remove him..." is Concerning

plz elaborate how he was viable at that time, thank you
also nothing you posted prior to this was me strongly wanting ari in

other people were townreading him. he was basically around the 5th-6th place the whole time. changing mine or ari's minds would've made him viable.

are you purposefully twisting my words? i'm not saying you "strongly wanted ari in", i'm saying you kept nudging how you'd be maybe sorta fine i guess with her being in the coalition and not doing much to actually kick her out.

[Aristeia]

HURT: all
HEAL: me, ari, dats, irrel, std

also another thing

its super weird to me that you wanted this coalition instead of the one that passed which switches out Mena for STD but you also have Mena as untouchable today after failure which is like a ??????

[Aristeia]

like if Mena's is your top townread in coalition after coalition failure why would you be willing to swap him out of coalition for STD?

[Not Known 15]

We are flipping Aristeia. If Ari is town, we are flipping skitter. If Ari is scum, we flip Datisi. Does anyone disagree?

[Aristeia]

I think your issue is more that nobody agrees with you

[Datisi]

give me a reason why ari is scum that doesn't mention an interaction that happened 50 pages ago

[skitter30]

i had like 8 hours between that moment and when i was leaving for the weekend
including a full day of work in between

you indicated you weren't likely
ari indicated she wasn't likely
irrel was unlikely to vote for something excluding you and ari given his reads
mena was eeeeehhhhh if he'd be around to talk to before i had to leave
i don't think i would have supported (or gotten) a coalition with a core of mena/me/irrel/std given who was remaining to even vote for it
fire also strongly scumread std
std scumread mena

if you/ari were anti it, where were the votes meant to come from exactly
who else was i supposed to ask?

like sure if you want to say earlier in the day i should have done. i probably should have, but i hadn't, and that morning i was trying to see what was available with the votes remaining, and that wasn't.

i had also towncased std at least once, prior in the day iirc

i think you're significantly over-emphasizing my support of ari being in, and i again strongly object to you saying that i didn't try to get std in as you gloss over me literally asking 2 key players if they'd include him
(i'm also not sure why you're framing this as a dichotomy between ari/std, when it wasn't ...)