Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Irrelephant11]

Relly seems to be keen for/worried about getting this lim in a way that I think town!him would be less so about, because he'd know that I die tomorrow which is not *that* big a loss even if limming scum!me today is obviously better fhpov

Though this line is also v towny to me because while I *have* thought it through (scum mena who knows he’s going down and is partnered with someone who’s like middle-of-the-pack needs to get one mislim before he dies) I think on balance this is a towny reason to OMGUS me

[Irrelephant11]

This is maybe the towniest post Menalque has posted all game

how is *that* the towniest post from him for you?

and while i know i've been called lazy, i don't appreciate it >.> i've read the points against him being scum, i don't see it. i could be wrong, i've been wrong before and i will be wrong again, but i don't think he has a red role pm this game. so. the only reason why i'm stalling is because i'm wondering if there's a chance i have some sorta revelation that makes me either sure in voting you, or sure in voting someone else. i know it's very unlikely to happen, but

Also I’m not trying to call you lazy. You keep calling you lazy. “I know I should _____ but I’m too lazy”
It’s infuriating when it has felt like you’re potentially the swing vote and are just shrugging when I or std appeal to you

[Menalque]

I thought she was potentially your partner for awhile there. But if you’re town…

Scum skitter wants me > you > ?? as the three mislims because that’s somehow better than you > me > ??
Probably not
Town skitter just has a strong townread and defends her friend she thinks she can read
Sounds more likely

Which is why I’ve been arguing with her so much I think, I’ve subconsciously sorted her as more likely town but I’ve thought she’s missing the obvious

Petit: I think nearly any wagon that flips in a way scum likes has scum on it. The coalition wagon flipped in a way scum likes, so I think scum was on it.

Yes that was the skitter/ari argument

One sec datisi

okay, yes, that makes sense on skitter

I guess maybe she would be worried that she might look bad for being wrong on me when she's normally incredibly good? but that seems weak because I don't think she worries about much at all when scum, and that probably doesn't get picked up on by anyone other than maybe datisi

the wagon point seems circumstantial -- reminds me of one reason why we lost the first time I played in coalition, which was bad wagonomics. I thought that a wagon that went up super fast and nearly went through immediately at start of D2 (on town) must have scum on it, but actually it was all town

[Datisi]

i can call myself lazy, nobody else can

and where did i shrug you off? like i assume that's how it looked like from your pov maybe, but the reasons i've read against menalque just do not feel very good

ugh i can try to reread parts of it again but i don't know if i'll be changing my mind at this point

I guess maybe she would be worried that she might look bad for being wrong on me when she's normally incredibly good? but that seems weak because I don't think she worries about much at all when scum, and that probably doesn't get picked up on by anyone other than maybe datisi

this was my idea -- like, i think she knows that if she screwed up her read on you that badly, (1) you would be screaming for her to go down tomorrow, (2) i would very much listen to that and push it

[Irrelephant11]

Yeah but wagons that go through are different than wagons that don’t. I don’t know maybe I’m relying too heavily on a dumb wagon point.

Treating me as town for a sec, though, if there’s no scum on wagon and skitter is scum, her partner is in std/malakittens. I guess I could see it being mala? Anyway I just think it’s more likely at least one scum is on wagon if the coalition fails. Anecdotal town losses aside, seems statistically likely

[Menalque]

okay, I will be back on later (most likely), I need to hang laundry and then I have class immediately after

[Menalque]

Yeah but wagons that go through are different than wagons that don’t. I don’t know maybe I’m relying too heavily on a dumb wagon point.

Treating me as town for a sec, though, if there’s no scum on wagon and skitter is scum, her partner is in std/malakittens. I guess I could see it being mala? Anyway I just think it’s more likely at least one scum is on wagon if the coalition fails. Anecdotal town losses aside, seems statistically likely

actually, final words before leaving

I think you might be, yeah re:wagon

and yesssss, I guess so on the second bit? I doubt it would be StD though, it's the same thing as with you, in that I don't think she would tie herself so strongly to StD if they were partnered

[Irrelephant11]

Okay @playerlist I know it’s +scum for me to reevaluate with my life on the line but can we ignore that for most of today so I can do the reevaluating first thank u bye

[Datisi]

yep, i reread the case and i feel like i could write another wall on why i don't think the reasons are Good but i also don't really think that would be much helpful for anyone

[Irrelephant11]

One reason I’d be sort of surprised mena/me was t/t was the way skitter/ari/Datisi kept their distance? Like by now it seems like scum would want to start to commit to one of us being scum for the sake of making any progress on that before deadline/before me and mena do the re-eval thing. Maybe that’s what skitter is doing? Wow f me if I derailed ari and Datisi’s pressure on skitter to make a bad push and force the whole game to choose between me and mena

[Irrelephant11]

yep, i reread the case and i feel like i could write another wall on why i don't think the reasons are Good but i also don't really think that would be much helpful for anyone

Okay for the sake of this conversation which if skitter/ari is more likely scum fypov

[Irrelephant11]

I have thought ari is being weirdly distant/keeping hands clean and I thought that was frustrating but thought every time she made a logical point it was a good one that showed sorting-thought-processes. But idk her resignation to vote me for mena’s personal sake (vs voting mena which could, you know, also help her avoid that toxicity because he’d be gone) is a scum tell in an otherwise pure-town-tone game? But her concern that we’re t/t feels towny in the new mena-is-town-hat I’m trying on

[Irrelephant11]

Like does ari gain towncred later if she was right that me/mena are t/t and she did nothing to stop it even though she publicly worried about it? Maybe I’m overthinking it and it just gets whichever of me/mena lives to see her as smart town who’s on their side. See this is why I really really really really really really don’t want to have to sort between skitter/Datisi/Aristeia

Feels like I could make a scumcase that goes something like “appeared towny and then kept hands clean and then left town to kill itself” for all three. Ari more than the other two maybe

[Datisi]

yep, i reread the case and i feel like i could write another wall on why i don't think the reasons are Good but i also don't really think that would be much helpful for anyone

Okay for the sake of this conversation which if skitter/ari is more likely scum fypov

skitter

it's like, i think there are way more things that i can point out being +town for ari than i can for skitter. yes i know most of my reasons got shot down as bad but i don't think they all are. i don't think scum!ari plays d1 the way she did and i don't think she offers to sheep and be out of the coalition unless she's like, 100% sure her partner is already inside. and if that's the case, then her partner has to be within you/skitt i think, which means it's better to flip there first either way then re-eval ari after the flip

[Irrelephant11]

You think she’s defending Menalque specifically because she would be obvscum to you and Menalque if she didn’t?

[skitter30]

there was another game before I went on hiatus (I think? can try to find it) where skitt p much singlehandedly stopped me being mislimmed despite most everyone else being convinced I was scum, which is why I can believe in her reading me correctly when it might not be so to the rest of the PL

I'm p sure this was perpetual elo fwiw
So uh not sure rhis is the best example lol

Also <3 to irrel and mena both

Ill interact like meaningfully later, i'm in the office today

[Datisi]

You think she’s defending Menalque specifically because she would be obvscum to you and Menalque if she didn’t?

yes but not really -- i think her "i would've gone after mena on d2 if i was scum in this game" is false because if she did go after mena, she would make herself obvscum *to him*, and then i would loudly sheep his dying words the next day (or she'd have to shoot me and remove a possible misyeet)

[Irrelephant11]

Like you and her have felt equally “nope sorry” about my push on Menalque since I and std started the push, if she were a little less sure it would be an easy miselim that makes me look p scummy. Why defend him in such a way that it would be hard to even turn on him later? I guess a NK is an option but limming and NKing inside the coalition seems risky

[Datisi]

Like does ari gain towncred later if she was right that me/mena are t/t and she did nothing to stop it even though she publicly worried about it?

you see, here i wanted to respond with "i don't think scum!her would be doing that in that universe" but then i realized that that would be giving her towncred for it, which uhh

but i don't think she would do it because the obvious scum-motivation of that overrides the wifom-towncred she'd get

[Datisi]

Like you and her have felt equally “nope sorry” about my push on Menalque since I and std started the push, if she were a little less sure it would be an easy miselim that makes me look p scummy. Why defend him in such a way that it would be hard to even turn on him later? I guess a NK is an option but limming and NKing inside the coalition seems risky

because she saw i wasn't budging and thought me/mena would find it suspicious if she did? because she doesn't really need to keep EVERYONE in the coalition as an open option, in fact it would also seem scummy if she did? because she hopes that mena would take the majority of the heat tomorrow if you flip green today?

like, none of these inherently make skitter scum, don't get me wrong, but i don't think she's as cleared town as you seem to think she is for strongly townreading mena

[Irrelephant11]

I did think it was scummy that ari’s single strong, non-sheep argument all game long is that skitter is wrong and bad for voting her. I’d kind of forgotten but isn’t it sort of scummy that her only emphatic push could be read as self-defense? @datisi

Petit: I’m just continuing mena’s argument that seemed reasonable I have no idea if skitter is town

[Irrelephant11]

Like I thought it was potentially +scum for skitter that I felt like we had similar reads on people d1 and then that just like, broke. d2 (trajectory is scummy, not the reads)
But otoh the *break* was mostly over mena/ari and one of us might be right and the other wrong and that’s the only reason we aren’t seeing eye to eye

[Datisi]

I did think it was scummy that ari’s single strong, non-sheep argument all game long is that skitter is wrong and bad for voting her. I’d kind of forgotten but isn’t it sort of scummy that her only emphatic push could be read as self-defense? @datisi

i guess this is where meta comes into play because my mental idea of ari being scum is that she would be Pushing Bullshit and wouldn't be that flaccid, just giving good arguments while not really doing anything with them.

if i'm wrong on that meta point and ari did decide to just ~vibe~ in the game as scum and wait to see if townies start clawing at each other rather than create chaos herself, then uh, i'd have to re-eval her i guess but

man, i'm starting to realize i use way more meta than i thought

[Irrelephant11]

are any of your reads not based in meta?

[Irrelephant11]

Have you ever seen scum!ari, Datisi? I thought she said she’s only rolled town before