Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Harley Quinn]

That roll was @ Ari
I don’t believe WF shot at me but I still think she’s scum here

No, Ari is the most likely target.

HEM flipped goon.
If Enchant is scum, he’s still bp
WF claims vt. Any pr category missing because that’s an extremely unpowerful scum team if accurate.

[Harley Quinn]

Ari was raising holy hell about Enchant being scum especially D2 but now she thinks Enchant can be town? It’s weak conviction!

well I preferred to elim Enchant over Mathblade because I was 100% sure mathblade was town.

When the comparison is between Enchant and Wallflower who isn't very townie and also happens to have gotten JK'd at night, that's a different comparison.

It’s too bad people didn’t listen to us wrt to that.

[implosion]

it's sort of "more logical" for scum to shoot Ari than Ausuka, but in reality it's a wifom 50/50. This is how any doc/jk setup works if they're both town - scum are forced to 50/50 shooting the doc vs the jailkeeper, while the jailkeeper 50/50s jailkeeping the doc or someone else.

This is not to say I think wallflower is a bad lim, though. I need to think more on that but probably not a bad lim.

[Gamma Emerald]

Aristeia, serious question: who do you think the scum team is atp?

[Harley Quinn]

That roll was @ Ari
I don’t believe WF shot at me but I still think she’s scum here

I understand Ari’s point and I think she was the most likely nk target, so I don’t see how WF isn’t guiltied by that. On d2 otoh, Math was not mech guiltied due to Enchant being bp, so if he’s town, we have no way of knowing if scum targeted him or me but thanks to Roden, we know Enchant could not have been targeted last night. And I don’t see why scum wouldn’t think she protects Ausuka over Roden or anyone else.

[implosion]

Enchant	BP
Ausuka	JK
Harley Quinn	N3 Vig/Venge
Bellaphant	tracker
Gamma Emerald	1-shot vig/PGO
implosion	UB/Rolecop
Wallflower	BP
Aristeia	Doctor
humaneatingmonkey	goon (could have picked anything)
Titus	n3 vig/Venge
Dwlee99	n3 vig
Roden	Voyeur
Save The Dragons	1-shot vig
MathBlade	vt

So Titus, what's the inconsistency here? There would have been an inconsistency if HQ had claimed draft cop/1-shot watcher (the one unclaimed role) but this is 100% consistent, is it not? You just sounded like you'd be suspicious of anyone picking n3 vig/venge high up. Is that still the case given that HQ is the one who claimed it?

[implosion]

whoops. didn't put math in.

[implosion]

Also worth saying: given draft cop/watcher wasn't claimed, either scum got it, or scum got either it or some other role as a fakeclaim with their informed modifier.

[Harley Quinn]

it's sort of "more logical" for scum to shoot Ari than Ausuka, but in reality it's a wifom 50/50. This is how any doc/jk setup works if they're both town - scum are forced to 50/50 shooting the doc vs the jailkeeper, while the jailkeeper 50/50s jailkeeping the doc or someone else.

This is not to say I think wallflower is a bad lim, though. I need to think more on that but probably not a bad lim.

Why would scum shoot Ausuka when it makes the most sense for Ari to doc Ausuka and therefore nk would fail?

[Aristeia]

because Ausuka should put some percentage weight into protecting me from the scum nightkill

and if Ausuka protects me, then I'm roleblocked from protecting her.

[implosion]

Yeah, that. At a glance it certainly "feels" like scum should probably shoot Ari but in practice it's WIFOM.

[Aristeia]

Aristeia, serious question: who do you think the scum team is atp?

I'm not sure

I am waiting for Titus to finish her mass claim thing and then I'll work on a POE order that maximizes our win chance based on the mech claims

[Harley Quinn]

Yeah, that. At a glance it certainly "feels" like scum should probably shoot Ari but in practice it's WIFOM.

Not really.

[Wallflower]

I suppose I could see the logic of killing Ausuka if they thought Ari was a possible JK target. Could have been thought of as a way of shading Ari if Ausuka turns up dead and then people be like “wtf Ari”

Depending on who the scum are, I’m also weighing up how viable no-killing would be as a strategy. From yesterday, scum would have known that there could be no ascetic cop, which I think is by far the most dangerous role to scum. An approach of no-killing would essentially just make it nightless, because the existing roles are not all that useful if scum decide to just not kill. Gives town more elims though obv so I’m not sure if they would do that, but something to consider

[Harley Quinn]

@Wallflower, do you still have a “pet scumread” on Implosion or has that changed?

[Harley Quinn]

I suppose I could see the logic of killing Ausuka if they thought Ari was a possible JK target. Could have been thought of as a way of shading Ari if Ausuka turns up dead and then people be like “wtf Ari”

Depending on who the scum are, I’m also weighing up how viable no-killing would be as a strategy.

From yesterday, scum would have known that there could be no ascetic cop

, which I think is by far the most dangerous role to scum. An approach of no-killing would essentially just make it nightless, because the existing roles are not all that useful if scum decide to just not kill. Gives town more elims though obv so I’m not sure if they would do that, but something to consider

Wait how could scum have possibly known this before Roden voyeured Enchant?

[Wallflower]

I suppose I could see the logic of killing Ausuka if they thought Ari was a possible JK target. Could have been thought of as a way of shading Ari if Ausuka turns up dead and then people be like “wtf Ari”

Depending on who the scum are, I’m also weighing up how viable no-killing would be as a strategy.

From yesterday, scum would have known that there could be no ascetic cop

, which I think is by far the most dangerous role to scum. An approach of no-killing would essentially just make it nightless, because the existing roles are not all that useful if scum decide to just not kill. Gives town more elims though obv so I’m not sure if they would do that, but something to consider

Wait how could scum have possibly known this before Roden voyeured Enchant?

Fair point. It would have been assuming that Enchant was true-claiming rather than pretending to be BP as cop (or that Enchant was shot N1)

[Wallflower]

@Wallflower, do you still have a “pet scumread” on Implosion or has that changed?

Based on play, I still think that implosion could be scum yeah, but I’m still getting my head around how roles etc influence things

[implosion]

Yeah, that. At a glance it certainly "feels" like scum should probably shoot Ari but in practice it's WIFOM.

Not really.

…yes really??

If airstrip (I’m keeping this autocorrect because it’s gold) is really the obvious nk target, then she is also the obvious jk target for ausuka, who could stop an nk by protecting her… which in turn means scum should shoot ausuka, which in turn means ausuka should jailkeep elsewhere. It’s WIFOM.

[implosion]

I’ll have more substantive reads/analysis later tonight or tomorrow or something. I also want to hear from Titus again.

[Harley Quinn]

Yeah, that. At a glance it certainly "feels" like scum should probably shoot Ari but in practice it's WIFOM.

Not really.

…yes really??

If airstrip (I’m keeping this autocorrect because it’s gold) is really the obvious nk target, then she is also the obvious jk target for ausuka, who could stop an nk by protecting her… which in turn means scum should shoot ausuka, which in turn means ausuka should jailkeep elsewhere. It’s WIFOM.

On n1, she jk’d her top sr which was Math but scum are going to logically think, Ausuka is suddenly going to jk her top tr?

Occam’s razor: Is it possible scum targeted Ausuka - thinking she’d suddenly do the exact opposite of what she dud n1 and jk her top tr? Is it likely that Ari doesn’t do the same thing she did on n1 and protect her top tr? Sure, anything’s possible. Is it either probable or likely as opposed to possible that either Ausuka or Ari did the exact opposite n2 of what they did n1

or

that scum would logically believe this is likely?

No, not really.

You could actually make a decently convincing argument for this on n1, since we wouldn’t necessarily have a basis to assume it isn’t wifom but to seriously suggest that

A) it’s probable wifom that either Ausuka or Ari flipped the script from n2 to n1 and did the converse,

or

B) assume that a scumteam would logically assume this.


Nah.

[Harley Quinn]

And in fact, Ausuka stayed consistent with her n1 na by once again jk her top sr and although Ari hasn’t confirmed - I don’t recall - probably also stayed consistent with protecting her strongest tr, which in this case because of role, would logically be Ari.

And any even remotely savvy scumteam is extremely unlikely to totally ignore the facts of what either elected to do on n1 and therefore logically had no reason to assume that either one would deviate from this pattern.

[Harley Quinn]

*Ausuka*.

Ari’s strongest tr because role would obviously be Ausuka.

[Aristeia]

i doctored ausuka last night

i think ausuka should always have some probability to jk me so scum never have a clean shot there

[Harley Quinn]

i doctored ausuka last night

i think ausuka should always have some probability to jk me so scum never have a clean shot there

Well what do you know @Wallflower and @Implosion, my theory was spot on and I bet scum thought so too.