Newbie 2096 | Nathan For You | Endgame

[Corwinoid]

Don't trust me. Read my play.Read my play.

Rad is my top town read, yes. There are certain features of his play that are simply not scum. An example, but not the only one, is that handing his vote over to someone like he did earlier is just objectively too bad to be scum in any reality I belong in.

There are a couple of others I don't want to comment on right now

, but he's practically turned himself into an IC as far as I'm concerned. If I'm duped by this and in some fantasy there's a Rad/* team then we're just losing right now.

I'll go ahead and comment on them now. The main part of me thinking Rad is/was town is the glib self-disinterest he had made me think it was returning/rusty town and was straight up just too unaware to be scum faking it. That's a complete 180 from how he's playing today, which entirely negates my read on him, and bugs the hell out of me. The all too sheepish "Whiskey, you take responsibility for my vote" and then "Bella, what do we do?!" act doesn't match the rest of his behavior right now.

You say "This game is probability based" Externally 4/7 of the remaining team combos have BBT in them. If "you" are town, 3/4 of them have BBT in them. From my perspective half of them have YOU in them. I said, exactly "the closest person to confirmed scum" and you want to twist that around to be me saying he's confirmed, and then telling

me

to look at the probabilities that you're conveniently ignoring.

> I want town!Corwin to sit back and really consider what's going on.

Yeah, the same shit I was doing when Bella got it stuck in her head I'm probably scum, right? While I was re-reading the thread, and BBT/Somnus. "Corwin, just sit back, relax, it'll hurt less."

Also, I'm not arguing with the conclusion of your logic. It's the incorrect premise that we should assume you

and

Somnus are town so that Bella/BBT can conveniently take me to -1 and it's so safe because you are so incredibly obvtown it's worth risking the entire game on. There is no way in hell that's a town move. A town player looking at probability and logic would never do something like this.

It's not the conclusion of the argument that's wrong, it's that the entire argument is wrong because it's built on the obviously false premise that everyone can just assume you're town because you rode your mostly-harmless town act into ELo and nobody should question it now.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Damn, that's a good post

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I need Bella's input

[Bellaphant]

Don't trust me. Read my play.Read my play.

Rad is my top town read, yes. There are certain features of his play that are simply not scum. An example, but not the only one, is that handing his vote over to someone like he did earlier is just objectively too bad to be scum in any reality I belong in.

There are a couple of others I don't want to comment on right now

, but he's practically turned himself into an IC as far as I'm concerned. If I'm duped by this and in some fantasy there's a Rad/* team then we're just losing right now.

I'll go ahead and comment on them now. The main part of me thinking Rad is/was town is the glib self-disinterest he had made me think it was returning/rusty town and was straight up just too unaware to be scum faking it. That's a complete 180 from how he's playing today, which entirely negates my read on him, and bugs the hell out of me. The all too sheepish "Whiskey, you take responsibility for my vote" and then "Bella, what do we do?!" act doesn't match the rest of his behavior right now.

You say "This game is probability based" Externally 4/7 of the remaining team combos have BBT in them. If "you" are town, 3/4 of them have BBT in them. From my perspective half of them have YOU in them. I said, exactly "the closest person to confirmed scum" and you want to twist that around to be me saying he's confirmed, and then telling

me

to look at the probabilities that you're conveniently ignoring.

> I want town!Corwin to sit back and really consider what's going on.

Yeah, the same shit I was doing when Bella got it stuck in her head I'm probably scum, right? While I was re-reading the thread, and BBT/Somnus. "Corwin, just sit back, relax, it'll hurt less."

Also, I'm not arguing with the conclusion of your logic. It's the incorrect premise that we should assume you

and

Somnus are town so that Bella/BBT can conveniently take me to -1 and it's so safe because you are so incredibly obvtown it's worth risking the entire game on. There is no way in hell that's a town move. A town player looking at probability and logic would never do something like this.

It's not the conclusion of the argument that's wrong, it's that the entire argument is wrong because it's built on the obviously false premise that everyone can just assume you're town because you rode your mostly-harmless town act into ELo and nobody should question it now.

What's weird is that rad's approach to me seems to change whether they think they can get my vote, or not. Earlier I felt a bit manipulated by bbt but this day phase rad's play just feels very 'setting the narrative' which is nearly always scum.

The reluctance to vote corwin is the most Sus though, but I'm not even sure why? Town! Rad shiuld know rads town, they seem to 100% believe somnus is town and realistically with the bbt hammer sitch I basically have to be town - no way on earth does scum Bella not position that day better, hammer scum!bbt and then leave Bella, somnus and corwin in elo.

So the sudden turn to 'but we still have to vote bbt' feels very wierd, but if they are scum, surely they'd be going along with it? Even if corwin was their scum partner, I still feel they should've been ok voting there. Scum rad elims me tonight and goes elo with bbt and somnus and just needs to ride the cross vote.

Rads position around the corwin vote doesn't look great from town or scum here.

Any one got any insight?

[Bellaphant]

Don't trust me. Read my play.Read my play.

Rad is my top town read, yes. There are certain features of his play that are simply not scum. An example, but not the only one, is that handing his vote over to someone like he did earlier is just objectively too bad to be scum in any reality I belong in.

There are a couple of others I don't want to comment on right now

, but he's practically turned himself into an IC as far as I'm concerned. If I'm duped by this and in some fantasy there's a Rad/* team then we're just losing right now.

I'll go ahead and comment on them now. The main part of me thinking Rad is/was town is the glib self-disinterest he had made me think it was returning/rusty town and was straight up just too unaware to be scum faking it. That's a complete 180 from how he's playing today, which entirely negates my read on him, and bugs the hell out of me. The all too sheepish "Whiskey, you take responsibility for my vote" and then "Bella, what do we do?!" act doesn't match the rest of his behavior right now.

You say "This game is probability based" Externally 4/7 of the remaining team combos have BBT in them. If "you" are town, 3/4 of them have BBT in them. From my perspective half of them have YOU in them. I said, exactly "the closest person to confirmed scum" and you want to twist that around to be me saying he's confirmed, and then telling

me

to look at the probabilities that you're conveniently ignoring.

> I want town!Corwin to sit back and really consider what's going on.

Yeah, the same shit I was doing when Bella got it stuck in her head I'm probably scum, right? While I was re-reading the thread, and BBT/Somnus. "Corwin, just sit back, relax, it'll hurt less."

Also, I'm not arguing with the conclusion of your logic. It's the incorrect premise that we should assume you

and

Somnus are town so that Bella/BBT can conveniently take me to -1 and it's so safe because you are so incredibly obvtown it's worth risking the entire game on. There is no way in hell that's a town move. A town player looking at probability and logic would never do something like this.

It's not the conclusion of the argument that's wrong, it's that the entire argument is wrong because it's built on the obviously false premise that everyone can just assume you're town because you rode your mostly-harmless town act into ELo and nobody should question it now.

What's weird is that rad's approach to me seems to change whether they think they can get my vote, or not. Earlier I felt a bit manipulated by bbt but this day phase rad's play just feels very 'setting the narrative' which is nearly always scum.

The reluctance to vote corwin is the most Sus though, but I'm not even sure why? Town! Rad shiuld know rads town, they seem to 100% believe somnus is town and realistically with the bbt hammer sitch I basically have to be town - no way on earth does scum Bella not position that day better, hammer scum!bbt and then leave Bella, somnus and corwin in elo.

So the sudden turn to 'but we still have to vote bbt' feels very wierd, but if they are scum, surely they'd be going along with it? Even if corwin was their scum partner, I still feel they should've been ok voting there. Scum rad elims me tonight and goes elo with bbt and somnus and just needs to ride the cross vote.

Rads position around the corwin vote doesn't look great from town or scum here.

Any one got any insight?

[Corwinoid]

Rad basically has to be scum now, right? There's no way town misreps the probabilities/team-combinations here intentionally and pushes a possible mislim. He doesn't have to worry about budging on his Somnus read if he knows 100% Somnus is town. And he knows the early vote / bbt gambit is safe because he's in the scum team, regardless of what bbt's actual alignment is; if town!bbt it's a win, if scum!bbt he gets towncred for a quick lynch and a low-info day.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Don't trust me. Read my play.Read my play.

What's weird is that rad's approach to me seems to change whether they think they can get my vote, or not. Earlier I felt a bit manipulated by bbt but this day phase rad's play just feels very 'setting the narrative' which is nearly always scum.

The reluctance to vote corwin is the most Sus though, but I'm not even sure why? Town! Rad shiuld know rads town, they seem to 100% believe somnus is town and realistically with the bbt hammer sitch I basically have to be town - no way on earth does scum Bella not position that day better, hammer scum!bbt and then leave Bella, somnus and corwin in elo.

This.

Rad is very 'this way or no way' and I think it comes from a plan coming into the Day. He isn't fluid in his thoughts/play at all and I think that's more likely to come from scum scared of how the game may change.

There were a couple of huge red flags from Rad through the game that made me question my town read on him and I consistently threw them to the side to try and not over complicate things for myself because I was really confident in my scum pool. The allocation of his vote to Whiskey was a strange one and because of that he also opened himself up to vote literally anyone (except Somnus I think?) Looking back, it literally allowed Rad to change direction in the game at any given moment (remember he went from hard town reading me to wanting to elim me if Whiskey voted me)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I ballsed the quote up. The post is from Bella, not Corwin.

Rad has also self-confessed that his scum game is actually decent which negates a lot of my 'Rad is newbtown' thoughts in terms of the red flags he was setting off.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I feel like I have been blind to a lot of stuff Rad has done this game because I was so focused on other things and I feel pretty shitty about it now

[Rad]

To which ever 3 of you are town - who has helped town gain more knowledge than me during d3? I'm sorry I'm the one who has to point out why I'm so townie, but it's being completely missed by town. You're overthinking it. This was terrible play by scum!rad. This was a gamble play by town!rad based on dead town reads that has gained town significant knowledge we would otherwise not have right now. I say my reads are bad as to why I have a hard time as town, but I haven't had to make any reads today. It's been all probability and I've used my vote to gain town information. I haven't had to make a single read in d3. It's why you see differences in my play. Don't overthink this.

[Rad]

Who is scum!Rad's partner during this play? You get to count out Bella because of my move. So who is it?

If somnus, I guess he blundered and didn't catch the vote in time. Bad play by scum!rad for not planning this out ahead of time and being on board with timing. And in this scenario you have to believe scum somnus.

If not scum somnus, my partner is right now taking about bussing me.

If bbt, why don't I wait for bbt bella to set up the mislim? Why do i do what i did? To flex?

If corwin, again, literally worst scum play ever by not waiting for somnus to inevitably vote bbt.

Occam's razor this shit please.

[Rad]

Bella, my reluctance in voting corwin is based on my belief that bbt is scum. He's most likely scum with corwin. Least likely scum with somnus. I can't count out Bella bbt either though. Considering whiskey was so convinced in Bella bbt, that's also been weighing in my mind.

Bbt bella voting corwin here has my 2 potential scum teams allowing me and somnus to clear up more data. Any team with somnus in it just loses the game for town. All of dead town reads somnus town which is why I'm comfortable pushing that risk.

[Rad]

Also, if anyone cares, I'd bet my life Rad is town.

This is Scum who knows rad is town, so this is incredibly easy to say. If I step out of line, he can easily change his opinion on me and this statement will no longer matter. It continues the pet rad play further by appealing to my emotion.

Aww thanks buddy, bbt really has my back, such a townie guy.

I did research on bbt to build my read on him. I spelled out why I was unwilling to vote him. All he had to do was point at my content and say "yep this guy is so town that I'd bet my life on it".

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Rad is relying on everybody else's reads/thoughts to justify his play Today instead of doing the leg work himself.

[Corwinoid]

Occams razor... okay.

What requires the fewest assumptions? Scum!rad knows his early vote is safe and hard busses bbt in elo, or town!rad makes a hero gamble to save town?

What requires the fewest assumptions? Scum!rad wants at least one town vote on Corwin before committing to the lim, OR rad is town, Bella is town, somnus is town, everyone has faith in this, and rad can safely be made kingmaker?

what has the fewest assumptions? Rad tells Corwin to sit back and think about probabilities thinking he hasn't, and intentionally misrepresents, or that rad has mistakenly thought he's done more than he has and just made an incredible mistake in what the probabilities actually are to other town players?

Who has helped provide more information? Was it town!rad gambling, scum!rad safe voting, or Corwin stumbling into it so Bella got cleared?

1384 is literally a LAMIST post.

1386 is more manipulation and a terrible argument, again that we should just trust you're town, and if you are I'm only in 50% of your possible scum teams. Literally a coin flip that you're winning or losing.

Occams razor says: This isn't town trying to win the game.

[Rad]

I think the way push on me is playing out points to corwin scum. I get to look at it from a "who is bbt having to manipulate here" perspective and it really seems like corwin is sold and Bella is reluctant. So bbt is taking Bella's post and expanding on it as if they're hunting scum together. For corwin's big post trying to negate my logic as a false premise, he's just like fuck yeah! And moves on, asking for bella to give her input.

Bella please look at bbt's interactions with you from the perspective that he's scum. Give it some consideration. I think this is the game solve.

[Rad]

Rad is relying on everybody else's reads/thoughts to justify his play Today instead of doing the leg work himself.

If there's one thing you can't say about me, it's that I haven't put in the work. I'm try hard regardless of alignment in this game.

[Rad]

Bbt and corwin. Place your vote on me. I'm convinced your scum so make your play. If Bella bbt, well, it is what it is.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

BBT is trying to work with the player who is conf town to him and who he has lined up with pretty much all game.

Hardly a breaking story.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

If there's one thing you can't say about me, it's that I haven't put in the work. I'm try hard regardless of alignment in this game.

Sure. You collected some votes together (with no analysis) after someone (Bella?) pointed out I have been a wagon/counter wagon pretty much all game.

The amount of times you say 'dead town scum read BBT' or 'dead town thought Somnus was town' etc etc shows you're not game solving. You're pushing a narrative

[Rad]

/popcorn

I bet you guys don't vote me without Bella voting me first.

And if you do, we get more data when both bella and somnus come in to say hello.

[Rad]

Come on now. Bbt first. Then either town!corwin can throw the game or scum!corwin can help town further by disproving Bella bbt, somnus bbt, somnus corwin.

[Rad]

*jeopardy theme* you guys are showing your cards with this hesitation. Where did all that confidence go? Surely I'm scum!

[Rad]

How scummy of me to weigh the reads of dead town so heavily. Everyone knows as town you're supposed to ignore confirmed town reads. I mean, they didn't even know who the nk was for n2 so their reads are flawed to begin with! Look at this asshole who gave town so much info just by believing in confirmed town reads. He should be eliminated for not coming up with the reads himself!

[Corwinoid]

You're entire counter argument to everything I said is to ignore all of the actual points I made and evidence, and discard it like I'm seeking approval from others, when that's what you've been doing this entire game? Pot calling the kettle black mate.

Also, fuck off with the smug bullshit, I was driving to work.