LOST (Game Over)

[T-Bone]

I plan to use my platform as Confirmed Town to start a new wagon tonight. Buy like, 5 hours from now.

Stay tuned

Come at me bruh

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Spoiler: Readlists So Far

Highlights so far:

BBT is the most susp'd person - 14 scumreads 0 townreads.
Lukewarm is the most townread person - 19 townreads 0 scumreads.

Does this mean that your gonna try to kill me now pooky?

Luke's seen this movie b4 huh

I guess I am fine letting the nightkills sort you out

[JohnnyFarrar]

Idk what malding means

[Dancing Puppets]

Corwin -> town
Dancing Puppets -> null
Galron -> null
Taly -> red
Johnny -> red

Can you explain your Taly sr?

[Dancing Puppets]

Okay. Is the kind of sparse content on track for penguin? They seem a little light.

Yeah he's pretty sparse as both alignments.

But it’s in the content. As scum. he really doesn’t do anything but coast. I should probably ISO him. His reads according to Pooky’s graph were off the charts wtf though.

[Off The Hook]

It's partially gut but I've played with

Galron

multiple times against, same alignment, and as a hydra. Difficult to verbalize but I don't see an agenda, a lot of their posts look like doubtcasting at face-value but they read to me as a genuine thought process and critic.

It's also connected to my

Rad

townread and their interactions. In my opening page, I commented on their interactions their and the initial read stuck, especially with

Rad's

communication towards me.

As for

T-Bone

, a lot of it is disagreement with the assessment of

Bell

, but I'm a biased party as a PT partner. So I thought to watch how that read progresses without my commentary.]

i kinda lowkey like this guys? i dont think scum would think past face value stuff..? does that make sense? like i feel like scum would be more likely to just jump on something if it seems scummy at face value.

Marci, how is this a better system then just sorting them

never claimed it to be, but it works for it uses i feel.
i was at work lol so i was typing that post quickly and i didnt have time to take the forever to copy and paste names again and again.

[Dancing Puppets]

hey cg, and feel free to ignore this question if the answer is no

are you sure you only get 100 words and not 100 different words

i was just thinking that's what i would have suggested if i saw that post restriction in a setup to make it more fun

The former.
-Guanine

Which head is this? I don’t speak DNA.

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

For the record I like a frog vote. Dude seems shady. Lemme look at a plist and I'll give you the ones who should live to d2

Also Corwin talked a bit about his problems elsewhere, they're real and we should give him space.

Cytosine and Guanine (Ircher and RH9)
T-Bone

Can you go into these reads some more, and talk about why you're voting Frogster?

Post restriction has me curious. Not necessarily a townread but I would like to, y'know,

play

with Irch and RH9

I like T-Bone, and I don't think scum T-Bone picks a fight with the post restricted hydra here

Frogger seems to be... fake? Like sometimes they'll post something and I'll think to myself "there's no way they actually believe this"

Stand BACK while I post my ROCK SOLID D1 case on Frogger everybody. It'll have quotes and everything

Johnny is the above still the best you have?

Because what you wrote about your read on me is terrible.

[T-Bone]

I plan to use my platform as Confirmed Town to start a new wagon tonight. Buy like, 5 hours from now.

Stay tuned

Yeah but you're biased.

[T-Bone]

Wow fat fingers again, that was at Frogster

[Off The Hook]

idk how i feel about penguin, ive just been ignoring them for the most part

can somebody case them?

i remember in the discord moderator game i felt like they were pretty absent and they seem the same here tho

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm ngl the person i'm most interested in rn is toad

cuz he feels pretty under the radar for having 11 SRs and no1 TRing him

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

For the record I like a frog vote. Dude seems shady. Lemme look at a plist and I'll give you the ones who should live to d2

Also Corwin talked a bit about his problems elsewhere, they're real and we should give him space.

Cytosine and Guanine (Ircher and RH9)
T-Bone

Can you go into these reads some more, and talk about why you're voting Frogster?

Post restriction has me curious. Not necessarily a townread but I would like to, y'know,

play

with Irch and RH9

I like T-Bone, and I don't think scum T-Bone picks a fight with the post restricted hydra here

Frogger seems to be... fake? Like sometimes they'll post something and I'll think to myself "there's no way they actually believe this"

Stand BACK while I post my ROCK SOLID D1 case on Frogger everybody. It'll have quotes and everything

Johnny is the above still the best you have?

Because what you wrote about your read on me is terrible.

Wow fat fingers again, that was at Frogster

Do you think what Johnny wrote about his read on me is objectively terrible, or is it just me?

[JohnnyFarrar]

Objectively? No. But I agree my attention would be better used elsewhere. Idk where tho.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I miss Taly

[Dancing Puppets]

Where is me

{Best Bird}

{PookyTheMagicalBear}

{Dunnstral, JohnnyFarrar, T-Bone, Lukewarm}

{Malakittens, Taly, Galron, Roden, Rad, Corwinoid, Dwlee99, Bellaphant, Klick, Bell, Cytosine and Guanine, Cat Scratch Fever, Enchant}

{Dancing Puppets, MalcolmTucker, Frogsterking, The toad}

{Off the Hook, Cephrir}

{BlueBloodedToffee}

{}

anyone yellow or below can go

This makes me think Peguin > rand chance of being town because in two games I played with scum!him, he did. pretty much nothing but post like. gazillion cute penguin memes.

[JohnnyFarrar]

^this tracks, tho grain of salt because pooky

[Off The Hook]

Whatup, haven’t read the past 40 or so pages and probably won’t do so anytime soon, instead I’m just gonna mindlessly back whatever Marci wants to do bcuz she seems more invested and we were actually synching quite well when I was actually paying attention to events

~GE

[Frogsterking]

How often does Town!Johnny change his vote?

[Frogsterking]

Objectively? No. But I agree my attention would be better used elsewhere. Idk where tho.

There should be an unvote here IMO

[T-Bone]

Spoiler:

For the record I like a frog vote. Dude seems shady. Lemme look at a plist and I'll give you the ones who should live to d2

Also Corwin talked a bit about his problems elsewhere, they're real and we should give him space.

Cytosine and Guanine (Ircher and RH9)
T-Bone

Can you go into these reads some more, and talk about why you're voting Frogster?

Post restriction has me curious. Not necessarily a townread but I would like to, y'know,

play

with Irch and RH9

I like T-Bone, and I don't think scum T-Bone picks a fight with the post restricted hydra here

Frogger seems to be... fake? Like sometimes they'll post something and I'll think to myself "there's no way they actually believe this"

Stand BACK while I post my ROCK SOLID D1 case on Frogger everybody. It'll have quotes and everything

Johnny is the above still the best you have?

Because what you wrote about your read on me is terrible.

Wow fat fingers again, that was at Frogster

Do you think what Johnny wrote about his read on me is objectively terrible, or is it just me?

I mean I lean town on him so I think he's fine.

Trust me, I get the impulse when someone does something bad directed at you. It's something I fight all the time, not always successfully. I don't think you can objectively look at it since it's directed at you.

[Corwinoid]

1918 and 1930 I appreciate, and I appreciate Cor going into the topic during your time off. My main takeaways are an increased skepticism on Puppets level of motivation to solve in this game, a slight town lean on the Cor slot, the danger of conflating probability with statistics (and I need to review the definition of random events), and the point how scum v scum wagons might be more common than I've been giving them credit for.

A couple examples that help: Assuming your skill doesn't change, your free throw % in basketball, statistically, approximates your expectation of making a free throw. Each event has a non changing P, and the history of it reflects that.

Conversely, if 10% of the people who take a test for thyroid cancer test positive, that doesn't mean you have a 10% chance of cancer if your doctor orders that test. It's more like 90% *because you are at the doctor with symptoms that make him think you might have thyroid cancer*. The intrinsic probability of the outcome has significantly changed based on additional information.

Drug tests are another common example, in Bayesian stats. If a test is 99% accurate, with a 1% false positive rate, if you randomly test 10,000 people, and 1% (100) of them use drugs, then you're going to get 99 accurate positives, and 100 false positives. Roughly speaking, it was right only 50% of the time, in a random sample. But if you target who you're testing for cause ("someone fell down and bumped their head at work"), the event is no longer random--a positive test here

is

99% likely to be correct (even so, in the real world positives are run multiple times).

The same goes here, if you look at it purely from the extrinsic probability of randomly picking a spot out of 13, or 25 you end up getting a different result than you do if you consider "A number of people consider that slot scummy for particular reasons" which drastically changes the intrinsic probability that slot actually is scummy--and in turn, whether such interactions are S/S.

[T-Bone]

meta vca

math is trash

[Corwinoid]

meta vca

math is trash

*looks at wall*
*agrees*

[T-Bone]

meta vca

math is trash

*looks at wall*
*agrees*

Wow I feel that in my soul, Corwin is officially my mason.