Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[Datisi]

vote count 2.01

with 15 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2022-07-27 13:15:00).

yeet

MalcolmTucker [3]:

Enchant, Unsure, Andante

Fredrick A Campbell [2]:

bugspray, Crescent

Unsure [1]:

Greeting

Prince of Paterson [1]:

Lowell

not voting [8]:

Vivax, MalcolmTucker, Firebringer, Fredrick A Campbell, Dwlee99, geraintm, UNOwen, Prince of Paterson

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

flavour

[Crescent]

The biggest problem I have is that Fred completely avoided even commenting on the Meg train until Meg was already at -2. He was throwing his vote all over the place to form a countertrain. Meg and Fred blatantly distanced themselves from pressure on the other without actually calling each other town. Fred throws like 4 votes down as the Meg train is building but won't talk about the Meg train. This is inherently a highly scum-slanted action and Meg's alignment isn't even relevant to this point.

I mean, I'm not saying Fred really had a defense for meg, just "meg is town" and that was that, but town can be wrong, idk, I feel really strongly that malcolm is maf

also, if bugspray claimed, why is pooky dead?

Bugspray claimed gunsmith at the start of the day for no justifiable reason whatsoever because they're

really

bad at mafia.

[Crescent]

The biggest problem I have is that Fred completely avoided even commenting on the Meg train until Meg was already at -2. He was throwing his vote all over the place to form a countertrain. Meg and Fred blatantly distanced themselves from pressure on the other without actually calling each other town. Fred throws like 4 votes down as the Meg train is building but won't talk about the Meg train. This is inherently a highly scum-slanted action and Meg's alignment isn't even relevant to this point.

I mean, I'm not saying Fred really had a defense for meg, just "meg is town" and that was that, but town can be wrong, idk, I feel really strongly that malcolm is maf

also, if bugspray claimed, why is pooky dead?

The problem is less that he defended Meg, and more he ignored the train in it's buildup. He tried to form countertrains while completely ignoring that Meg's train was taking off.

[Firebringer]

i don't like lowell posting that last half of yesterday

[Firebringer]

if i had more to say on crescent i would say it. I just read her posts and was like "this person is someone i should look into later"

Why is azumaril wagon bad

Tonal town read on them.

If the only read you have on someone is tonal why would you think its a bad wagon.

To me this feels like tmi that I'm town.
Also dont like the MT vote.
VOTE: Fancypants

kind of looks like a buss

[Crescent]

Adante = town.

My hesitation with Fred is that Lowell abandoned the Meg wagon for Fred just as it began to gather momentum, and then didn't return until it was clear the Meg wagon was serious. So it seemed like Lowell might have been trying to defuse the pressure on his buddy which obviously doesn't work if Fred is also scum.

I actually forgot about this.

Lowell ended up probably the single hardest person in the game on Meg's train though, as he was really pushing that to be hammered after stalling out for so long. It's theoretically "possible" that Meg disappeared intentionally just to let Lowell do this, but that's kind of a total bush-league play.

[Firebringer]

Lowell ended up probably the single hardest person in the game on Meg's train though,

is this revisionist history. Lowell was being super sketchy

[Crescent]

Lowell ended up probably the single hardest person in the game on Meg's train though,

is this revisionist history. Lowell was being super sketchy

Until the end of the day where he was basically "The vote has stalled out can we kill it already". I admit I'm biased, as I was the only other person in that entire timeframe doing anything other than shitposting.

Lowell isn't "clear" to me, but I wouldn't vote him before Fred, Prince, MT, or Unsure.

I'd wager

at least

two remaining scum in those 4.

[Firebringer]

Well lowell was pushing for meg wagon even when it was "stalling" which tbh i don't remember being a major problem i just reemember other people trying to get other wagons going that didn't happen which is what i think i should be looking at.

Lowell could be town but the counter wagon was like Fred? What other wagons was there

[Firebringer]

So i am going back on unsure being a buss from meg. Looks like fancy was wrong town. I could still see it being scum but leaving it at the door. Calling unsure town for now

Bugspray was a counter. Seems like a designated misyeet. Claiming gunsmith out of nowhere. Who cares.

Fred is a weird one. I still don't understand why fred continues to get traction and everyone sees slot as scum or gets in lists everywhere. I am not saying ohh fred town, i am going "I don't know why this slot gets so much attention". I should dig into it to get a big brain opinion.


Anyways if i was yeeting someone at this moment it would be Prince

[Crescent]

Well lowell was pushing for meg wagon even when it was "stalling" which tbh i don't remember being a major problem i just reemember other people trying to get other wagons going that didn't happen which is what i think i should be looking at.

Lowell could be town but the counter wagon was like Fred? What other wagons was there

Fred, Meg, and Fancypants were all at 4 at one point. Fred lost all his momentum because Meg basically ended up taking it all from him. Meg's vote on FP ultimately ended up killing momentum on him. The only true counterwagon at the end was Bugspray, and two of the three people who ended on them are two of the four people I think are most likely to be scum.

Fred votes Enchant, Fancypants (2 posts later, he votes for Bugspray), Owen, and Bugspray during the time Meg is building votes, before he ever once makes a real comment on the train. Enchant's vote on Bugspray was essentially just fakespew, and then Unsure followed almost immediately upon replacing in. Fred places a new vote every 3-5 posts as Meg's train builds and sticks. He was just slinging them around hoping to find something that stuck.

Yesterday overall there were were some really

bad

votes on each other between FP, Fred, Meg, and MT. Conversely, Prince's vote on Fred looks much better than basically any of the votes these guys put on each other.

[Crescent]

Who cares.

I do! It's awful unjustifiable play and on my home forum I'd

still

be lambasting him over it.

And it wouldn't be just me!

[Crescent]

Them damnit them why do I keep messing this up.

[Firebringer]

bugspray isn't get nk here and results are useless till we lim the doctor unless got a guilty result.
So i see no reason to be upset about it.

id rather early claims than no claims when someone just dies without outing results/role. Seen to much of that and that is far worse.

[Greeting]

So I just did an exercise where I took the names of all remaining players and removed the ones I'm townreading. Order is not relevant.

{

Unsure

,

Firebringer

,

Fredrick A Campbell

,

Dwlee99

,

Lowell

,

bugspray

,

geraintm

,

UNOwen

,

Prince of Paterson

}

I suppose I could leave

Firebringer

and

geraintm

out for the time being. Although I am not very sure about these two, they have given me some stuff to townread them for, while the rest are all kinda shady.

Crescent

made a good observation about

gera

.

Gera's last two posts of the day are not posts I see him making as scum. Gera doesn't naughty point someone for a hammer if he knows the guy is going to flip scum.

I overlooked that post but yes, you are correct in that it does point towards town

geraintm

.

{

Unsure

,

Fredrick A Campbell

,

Dwlee99

,

Lowell

,

bugspray

,

UNOwen

,

Prince of Paterson

}

If I am correct, all the remaining mafia should be amongst the remaining seven. If we had a 5-member scumteam then more than half of them are scum, and if we had a 3-member scumteam then it's almost half.

[Crescent]

That's the point, they weren't going to die anytime soon. They were perfectly set to go 3 nights uninterrupted and come in with 3 results at the same time. Though I guess the likelihood is it doesn't really change anything, even if I feel like it's a total misplay.

Though, the way games are setup here is drastically different from the way I'm used to games being set up, as scum in general is

significantly

weaker here than I'm used to. An average game of 17 there would have 5 scum and 3-4 scum power roles (And an average game of 13 would have 4 scum and 2-3 scum power roles). There's a decent chance they'd have a second role to shut that claim down with for at least a night, even with a dead RB (Who would be acting every night).

But yes I certainly would not waste a bullet on a player of that caliber if I were scum. Good scum don't fear power roles; they fear power players. The last time I was scum, I shot a VT night 3 over 3 town power roles, because he was the only actual player in the game I thought could actually lead a train on me. I found myself in final 5 on day 5 with two living town PRs and basically no worries because I knew those players were never going to catch me.

[Crescent]

So I just did an exercise where I took the names of all remaining players and removed the ones I'm townreading. Order is not relevant.

{

Unsure

,

Firebringer

,

Fredrick A Campbell

,

Dwlee99

,

Lowell

,

bugspray

,

geraintm

,

UNOwen

,

Prince of Paterson

}

I suppose I could leave

Firebringer

and

geraintm

out for the time being. Although I am not very sure about these two, they have given me some stuff to townread them for, while the rest are all kinda shady.

Crescent

made a good observation about

gera

.

Gera's last two posts of the day are not posts I see him making as scum. Gera doesn't naughty point someone for a hammer if he knows the guy is going to flip scum.

I overlooked that post but yes, you are correct in that it does point towards town

geraintm

.

{

Unsure

,

Fredrick A Campbell

,

Dwlee99

,

Lowell

,

bugspray

,

UNOwen

,

Prince of Paterson

}

If I am correct, all the remaining mafia should be amongst the remaining seven. If we had a 5-member scumteam then more than half of them are scum, and if we had a 3-member scumteam then it's almost half.

I've been led to believe that 4 scum in minis and 5 scum in larges is effectively a hard no here. In 2272 I immediately assumed 4 scum in the game and was shot down on that rather quickly.

[UNOwen]

Lowell ended up probably the single hardest person in the game on Meg's train though, as he was really pushing that to be hammered after stalling out for so long. It's theoretically "possible" that Meg disappeared intentionally just to let Lowell do this, but that's kind of a total bush-league play.

Eh, I didn't really see the wagon as having stalled for that long. There was about a week until deadline, it felt like Meg being at least put at E-1 was only a matter of time.

[Crescent]

Also Bugspray randomly claiming GS as scum to start day 2 would be insane why are they even on your list?

[Greeting]

Malcolm's hammer was bad, he needs to explain what arguments he was convinced by and why it took him until Meg was at E-1 to be convinced.

UNOwen

and

MalcolmTucker

are not both mafia because of this post. Most likely one of them is, least likely both are town. My money's on

UNOwen

in this duo though.

Reason? The scumteam just lost one, bussing a second one is a very unlikely strategy for them to take.

[Greeting]

Also Bugspray randomly claiming GS as scum to start day 2 would be insane why are they even on your list?

Claiming Gunsmith is not automatically town indicative. There could be a mafia-aligned Gunsmith, and if there is,

bugspray

could be trying to gain towncred by claiming this and working with town.

[Crescent]

Lowell ended up probably the single hardest person in the game on Meg's train though, as he was really pushing that to be hammered after stalling out for so long. It's theoretically "possible" that Meg disappeared intentionally just to let Lowell do this, but that's kind of a total bush-league play.

Eh, I didn't really see the wagon as having stalled for that long. There was about a week until deadline, it felt like Meg being at least put at E-1 was only a matter of time.

Meg was sitting at -2 doing nothing for around 32 hours until I got sick of it and voted him.

Huh, I thought it was longer than that.

[UNOwen]

Most likely one of them is, least likely both are town.

Why?

[Firebringer]

Also Bugspray randomly claiming GS as scum to start day 2 would be insane why are they even on your list?

Claiming Gunsmith is not automatically town indicative. There could be a mafia-aligned Gunsmith, and if there is,

bugspray

could be trying to gain towncred by claiming this and working with town.

Or you know....if bs is mafia. They are just faking being gunsmith. The idea they have to be gunsmith is weird idea to assume is the truthful part if you think could be mafia.

[Crescent]

Also Bugspray randomly claiming GS as scum to start day 2 would be insane why are they even on your list?

Claiming Gunsmith is not automatically town indicative. There could be a mafia-aligned Gunsmith, and if there is,

bugspray

could be trying to gain towncred by claiming this and working with town.

Scum aligned gunsmith what