LOST (Game Over)

[Best Bird]

One can assume Bella is a doc and Bella killed bell without any modifiers.

[Cytosine and Guanine]

That would be true perhaps except doctor is a pretty common fake claim to buy time.
~Cytosine

[Lukewarm]

Nah everyone jumped on Bella without any analysis, is why I'm comparing it to RVS.

Actually Occam's Razor given the likelihood of Bella being an actual doc based on flavor is that town!Bella sat on Bell and Bell is macho so now he's dead.

You gotta deny Bella's a doc at all for there to be a better Occam's Razor cause the scum!Bella doc scenarios are complicated.

HARD disagree.

[Rad]

Luke sanity check me please.

Did scum!Bella the doc or not doc go kill Bell last night?

[Rad]

alright, Luke sanity check complete. I'll drop it.

[Best Bird]

@Rad.

Drap's tracker result says: Bella targeted exactly Bell, and only Bell, with anything that Bella used that targeted someone overnight.

I don't know how to make that any clearer, so I hope that helps.

I mean - if there was a redirect, Drap wouldn’t be notified.

I feel like that still falls under what I said. That would mean that the redirector changed her target to Bell. And she therefore targeted only Bell.

But this is also semantics on whether "Bella targeted" means "Bella submit a target on" or "in the end, bella's ability targeted"

I mean “Bella targeted exactly bell” implies that’s what actually happened…given the use of exactly.

[Best Bird]

Nah everyone jumped on Bella without any analysis, is why I'm comparing it to RVS.

Actually Occam's Razor given the likelihood of Bella being an actual doc based on flavor is that town!Bella sat on Bell and Bell is macho so now he's dead.

You gotta deny Bella's a doc at all for there to be a better Occam's Razor cause the scum!Bella doc scenarios are complicated.

HARD disagree.

Continuing to mind meld.

[Off The Hook]

Everybody Hates Hugo

This would mean that episodes are unrelated to the roles actually.

Because that is before it is revealed he can talk to dead people.

Episode titles in role pms appear to just be chosen based on episodes which that character is the pov character for the flashbacks.

But the character flavor matches role ability pretty 1 to 1

I don't really know how well our role ties to our episode but our episode does feature our character prominently.

~GE

[JohnnyFarrar]

My shit also matches my character, same with T-Bone

[Rad]

My shit also matches my character, same with T-Bone

You and T-Bone are so buddy buddy in your hood that you shared your flavor AND your roles?

[Best Bird]

Starting to agree with ceph tbh.

[Off The Hook]

Starting to agree with ceph tbh.

on what?
Also @Rad well, they're neighbors, so roles are at least partly known already

~GE

[Rad]

Starting to agree with ceph tbh.

On johnny scum?

[Best Bird]

Starting to agree with ceph tbh.

On johnny scum?

*ding ding*

[Cat Scratch Fever]

alright, Luke sanity check complete. I'll drop it.

fwiw I think you're entertaining hypotheticals that are worth entertaining if and only if Bella flips town. It's kind of a matter of balancing probabilities

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Actually idk how hard I lean into Johnny!scum if Bella flips red.

Actually idk how hard I lean into Johnny!scum if Bella flips red.

I honestly feel like Bella!Wolf Spews Johnny Town.

Can you both expand on this?

I'm still interested in hearing more about this!

[Rad]

alright, Luke sanity check complete. I'll drop it.

fwiw I think you're entertaining hypotheticals that are worth entertaining if and only if Bella flips town. It's kind of a matter of balancing probabilities

I mean, if Bella flips town, then we don't gain much info here, right? Either Bell's macho, or there's a strongman? Doesn't even matter. Our doc is ded cause we didn't figure it out. Or maybe I'm missing something.

I think it's more worth considering before we flip Bella.

But it's cool, I'm down with murdering Bella now cause fuck it? Maybe she's scum. I like occam's razor and people are saying I'm missing it. We can wait some time for Taly though.

[Lukewarm]

Luke sanity check me please.

Did scum!Bella the doc or not doc go kill Bell last night?

Here are the requirements for scum!Bella, given the track:

-Scum!Bella carried out the night kill on Bell, and did not use any abilities on any player other then Bell last night.

This is not a wild scenario that defies logic, or needs any real extra hoops to explain.

Spoiler:

Off the top of my head, perfectly reasonable explanations:
Scum cannot multitask.
Bella is an x-shot scum!doc, and did not want to use one of her shots last night.
Bella is Juliet, but not actually a doc
Bella is not actually Juliet, but one of her partners is Juliet.
(And then several other explanations that I have thought of, but feel less likely and do start to break away from the occam's razor)

------

Now for her to be town

Town!Bella guessed the night kill on Bell, and despite being a doctor that guessed the night kill, her ability failed

This is first not super likely night 2 in this large of a game (especially with Bell having not claimed anything other then Neighbor), and second a mystery thing that would have to be accounted for.

[Rad]

I just glanced over Bell's ISO. He actually read Taly as scum for most of the game, I think until the response to the gladiate. Even after that, in d2, he just told DP that he'd respect the Taly veto, which suggests to me that if the veto wasn't there he'd still consider voting Taly. I doubt he even told Taly any revealing info about his flavor given he believed his role matched his flavor.

This wait might be pointless.

[Lukewarm]

I just glanced over Bell's ISO. He actually read Taly as scum for most of the game, I think until the response to the gladiate. Even after that, in d2, he just told DP that he'd respect the Taly veto, which suggests to me that if the veto wasn't there he'd still consider voting Taly. I doubt he even told Taly any revealing info about his flavor given he believed his role matched his flavor.

This wait might be pointless.

I agree that he probably did not full claim to her

But assuming that their hood was done like mine, she had Bell's flavor told to her by the mod.

So, I don't think it matters if Bell trusted her or not to get the flavor.

[Rad]

I just glanced over Bell's ISO. He actually read Taly as scum for most of the game, I think until the response to the gladiate. Even after that, in d2, he just told DP that he'd respect the Taly veto, which suggests to me that if the veto wasn't there he'd still consider voting Taly. I doubt he even told Taly any revealing info about his flavor given he believed his role matched his flavor.

This wait might be pointless.

I agree that he probably did not full claim to her

But assuming that their hood was done like mine, she had Bell's flavor told to her by the mod.

So, I don't think it matters if Bell trusted her or not to get the flavor.

Oooh. So you just know the flavor name of the other person via mod? Gotcha.

[Lukewarm]

Wait. I am so dumb. Toog claimed Bell's flavor

[Lukewarm]

My role is Shannon, my partner is Boone.

[Lukewarm]

I really doubt he was macho.

But definitely not a doc, which was the most likely other macho.

[Lukewarm]

For his career, Boone worked a wedding planning company.

Was presented as a spoiler rich kid (got his job, because his mom owned the company)

Super hesitant to do the dirty work of being on the island.

Is in love with his step sister, but she wont be with him X.X

Over time is convinced by Locke that they were on the island for a Greater Purpose.

Died when an old airplane fell off a cliff and crushed him.

---

Would guess Vanilla Neighbor with his step sister tbh.