Micro 1058: Is This Thing Loaded? -- Game Over!

[Ph0enix]

yoink

[Frogsterking]

Unless you think Alex didnt have any great alternatives.

Given your vote and this post I'm assuming you think Alex had an alternative. Who would that be?

I'm blanking a little bit.

[Frogsterking]

I'm struggling to figure out why Scum chose to kill Galron of all people. I was sure Alex wasn't surviving the night, given that he was basically universally TR-ed and he had a good D1. Furthermore, Galron was on the wagon against me, so leaving him alive would make it easier for me to get eliminated today.

I think it's probably important.

I mean, Ph0enix are you assessing the night kill to be a bad choice?

Actually I can't find shit to read for in this game. I need to look at more than just the night kill

[Frogsterking]

If I can eliminate you and Guilty Lion then I'm left with Alex.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Alexcellent

I don't know why you TR Alex D1.

[Ph0enix]

What made you change vote?

[GuiltyLion]

I want to actually sit with his posts though and think through what others have said in response - please no "killing" yet lol

I probably should be annoyed at how D1 ended but this in retrospect is pretty hilarious considering what followed it.

hahaha yes sure would have been nice if we had more info from D1 to use today buuuut some people got those itchy hammer fingers, it is what it is

I re-evaluated over night and I think Ph0enix is town. While I don't really vibe with a lot of his thinking, I do feel the thinking itself is genuine and I don't think he's informed

if no one else counterclaims a vig shot on Sara (or Galron) that makes kuti confirmed town

I think Alexcellent is scum here and I find it townie that Frogster is thinking that as well

I'm on lunch break so I'm not ready yet to formally case it but I think Alexcellent has made a lot of safe non-committal reads and posts, I feel it's scummy how he treated the Ph0enix vs GL thing as "probably TvT but I have qualms with things GL is saying", and Bambi made a good point that Alexcellent should have known better than to push him for an OMGUS vote

[Alexcellent]

I want to actually sit with his posts though and think through what others have said in response - please no "killing" yet lol

I probably should be annoyed at how D1 ended but this in retrospect is pretty hilarious considering what followed it.

hahaha yes sure would have been nice if we had more info from D1 to use today buuuut some people got those itchy hammer fingers, it is what it is

I re-evaluated over night and I think Ph0enix is town. While I don't really vibe with a lot of his thinking, I do feel the thinking itself is genuine and I don't think he's informed

if no one else counterclaims a vig shot on Sara (or Galron) that makes kuti confirmed town

I think Alexcellent is scum here and I find it townie that Frogster is thinking that as well

I'm on lunch break so I'm not ready yet to formally case it but I think Alexcellent has made a lot of safe non-committal reads and posts, I feel it's scummy how he treated the Ph0enix vs GL thing as "probably TvT but I have qualms with things GL is saying", and Bambi made a good point that Alexcellent should have known better than to push him for an OMGUS vote

We are looking at reads from a D1 that was cut very short. I guess I can see how my stance on you and Phoenix was non-committal but I'm still not really sure between you two. I think based on content he is more likely town but yeah. I'm not very good at sorting in these situations.
The Bambi thing was a meta thing - they had the same reaction to being voted as they did in a recent scum game. I did have doubts after a while given they weren't as active and chatty as they were in that game? But I also didn't expect them to vote themselves and get hammered suddenly so I didn't really have time to fully re-assess.

[Alexcellent]

Yeah so I don't know who's who. I think I need to re-read and brain things a bit.

I do dislike a lot of Frogster's play. I feel like he voted Dunn yesterday on very thin reasoning and Dunn came back with a decent meta case that he more or less ignored, brushed off Dunn as paranoid and sheeped onto Phoenix. Today's posts do feeeeeel kind of organic but I keep looking at his "is this 4v1 or 3v2?" post and thinking it's smoke and mirrors. Like literally the flips are there on that very page. It kind of feels like an act.

On content alone I think Phoenix is probs town, 70 just feels that going that extra yard that early game scum probably doesn't do. If I disregard content I can see a Phoenix/Sara team working and I can probably see reasoning for the Galron kill there. But yeah it's hard for me to say Phoenix is scum here and I think ultimately I'm just leaning town there.

Occam's Razor is telling me scum is probably just Frog. I think I'm probably less sold on GL as scum than Frog but more than Phoenix if that makes sense. I think if he came in and went right after Phoenix again then I'd be scum reading much harder there? But the fact he's come in with that post after Frogster's vote on me muddies things a bit.

Think I'm just accepting that the Kuti stuff is legit.

Yeah idk, I'm going to read back through GL and Phoenix's D1 posts

[Alexcellent]

For the record I do recommend a vigi shot on Alex for starting this for such a stupid reason. He should have known better.

FWIW I think this is maybe why I'm still alive, funnily enough.

I think scum could have viewed a NK on me as a potential waste given that a vig may have just done the work for them after seeing this post

[Alexcellent]

Eh I'm just doing this
VOTE: Frogster

[GuiltyLion]

Alex why do you think I'm town? I'm a little surprised you don't seem more suspicious of me

I think if we accept kuti/Phoenix as universal townreads then this is obviously a tight gamestate for scum with only two viable miselims remaining, so I like that you're reaffirming your Ph0enix townread in 208, but I'm a lil worried your read on me could be scum trying to avoid pissing me off or fully locking me on you

[GuiltyLion]

I think Galron, Ph0enix, GL and kuti could be town

Wouldn't mind input here. Do we think Sara throws her partner's name in here or is this straight up a list of town people?

Only people alive not in this list are myself and Frog.

It's a weird post and I'm not sure which way to swing on it. But also there's not much to look at in her ISO given she only posted 3 times. She voted Frog at start of day, unvoted, and then there's the above post. That's pretty much it.

my thoughts on this

I am considering it more likely an all town list, mainly because of how she says "could be" town, it reads like she's being careful not to accidentally sound informed by being correct about all of us. Specifically I think if her partner was on the list she'd be less likely to couch it in that such tentative language and more likely to just assert that she believes they are town, she already has a "think" qualifying the whole post

also if kuti is un-CC'd it really only leaves Ph0enix for me as the possible partner here

(I mentioned this vaguely in my last post but just to be explicit, if anyone vigged Galron they need to claim. cause in that world it's possible Sara died on a bomb and kuti gambited. but if no one shot Galron then kuti is mechanically conf)

[GuiltyLion]

Unless you think Alex didnt have any great alternatives.

Given your vote and this post I'm assuming you think Alex had an alternative. Who would that be?

I'm blanking a little bit.

is this supposed to be a blank vig crumb/soft?

I'm not really seeing why it would be pro-town to crumb that

[GuiltyLion]

last post for now - I think my reason for TRing Frogster was bad and I sorta get townie vibes from the latest Alex posts, which means I need to reread tomorrow and start playing for real

[Ph0enix]

For the record I do recommend a vigi shot on Alex for starting this for such a stupid reason. He should have known better.

FWIW I think this is maybe why I'm still alive, funnily enough.

I think scum could have viewed a NK on me as a potential waste given that a vig may have just done the work for them after seeing this post

That's a good point actually, I have to reread again with that in mind.

[Alexcellent]

Alex why do you think I'm town? I'm a little surprised you don't seem more suspicious of me

I think if we accept kuti/Phoenix as universal townreads then this is obviously a tight gamestate for scum with only two viable miselims remaining, so I like that you're reaffirming your Ph0enix townread in 208, but I'm a lil worried your read on me could be scum trying to avoid pissing me off or fully locking me on you

I don't fully town read you I just less scum read you if that makes sense.

I DO think you as scum would be less likely to come in with suspicion on me today. I think given that you spent most of D1 pushing Phoenix, you would have a very straightforward win condition of just continuing that push and trying to continue to sell everyone on scum!Phoenix. The fact you came in saying Phoenix is town is townie points for you, and I think Galron kill makes less sense from you given that you had a TR on him and he was sheeping you.

[Alexcellent]

Unless you came in and saw Frogster voting for me and pivoted in your reads thinking I might be an easier push for today, which is a possibility

[Ph0enix]

Thoughts about the players remaining:

Kuti

I see no claim from anyone else in regard to the Sara kill, so I guess they are conf!Town at this point.

Alex

I don't mind the vote in 42 in and of itself, I'm more worried about the fact that he didn't unvote when Bambi got to E-1. Then again, it happened quite fast so there's a chance he may've just missed it. As for the discussion that was going on between me and GL, I still think that's a point in Alex's favour, cause he could have easily voted against me to pressure me based on GL's points, or voted GL, because he didn't like some of his responses. He chose to do neither of these, which can be seen as non-committal, but I believe it points more to town!Alex than scum!Alex. In a scum!Alex case I'm also not sure what the point of a Galron kill is as opposed to a GL kill.

Frogster

I think the biggest argument for scum!Frogster is still what Dunn said in 63. His playstyle this game is similar to the one he exhibits when he rolls scum. His voting pattern is also weird, and I don't even know what 203 is supposed to mean.

GL

I don't think my exchange with GL on D1 was particularly AI, I believe it was playstyle friction more than anything else. His reasoning for a possible scum!Alex scenario in 206 I find kinda strange, because it's the same reasoning he used on D1 against me. The point Bambi was making, which he refers to in the same post, I can't argue with.

Given what Alex said in 209, I think the Galron kill makes the most sense in a scum!GL or scum!Frogster scenario. At first, before this post by Alex, I wasn't considering the scum!Frogster scenario as much, because I believed based on his playstyle thus far that he wouldn't overthink the night kill as much and simply kill Alex, cause that was a no-brainer. Given that Alex could've been killed by a Vigi after what Bambi said, though, I think the Galron kill also makes sense if Frogster is scum.


@Alex: Why didn't you unvote Bambi at the end of D1?
@Frogster: 1. Thoughts on Dunn's meta read on you in 63? 2. Could you walk me through your voting pattern, and more specifically me --> GL --> Alex?
@GL: I think I just need more from you in general, cause you've been quieter today than on D1. But you said yourself that you'll reread again, so I'm looking forward to what you have to say.

[Alexcellent]

The Bambi/Dunn stuff happened Sunday morning for me, I didn't see it until after the thread was already locked
Full disclosure, I typically don't mind people being at E-1 early, I don't think that's necessarily scummy. But if I saw Bambi voting for herself I think I probably would have unvoted.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogster: 1. Thoughts on Dunn's meta read on you in 63? 2. Could you walk me through your voting pattern, and more specifically me --> GL --> Alex?

Dunn's meta read is wrong and bad. That's the extent of my thoughts on it. I think they wasted their time I guess.

I switched onto Alex instead of GL because I read Alex's D1 iso and realized it's much worse than I expected. I thought you seemed townie in the thread earlier when you were asking me questions so I was deciding between those two.

I don't see my D1 ph0enix vote as having any connection with the GL -> Alex series.

[Ph0enix]

The Bambi/Dunn stuff happened Sunday morning for me, I didn't see it until after the thread was already locked
Full disclosure, I typically don't mind people being at E-1 early, I don't think that's necessarily scummy. But if I saw Bambi voting for herself I think I probably would have unvoted.

That's fair.

I switched onto Alex instead of GL because I read Alex's D1 iso and realized it's much worse than I expected.

Could you elaborate?

[Frogsterking]

and I don't even know what 203 is supposed to mean.

This is an issue, do you feel like you have a clear grasp on the concept of deductive reasoning?

[Frogsterking]

Could you elaborate?

Yeah I can point out a few things I saw

[Ph0enix]

and I don't even know what 203 is supposed to mean.

This is an issue, do you feel like you have a clear grasp on the concept of deductive reasoning?

Oh, you mean "eliminate" as in by process of elimination, I thought you meant "eliminate" as "vote off".