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[Prince of Paterson]

Imma sheep tm town read

VOTE: pOP

E-1 btw

This is the post I was referring to. Here she is saying that she was sheeping Andante, her strongest townread. Later she justified it by saying that she also townread Enchant, but that was more about why she didn't want to vote there rather than why she voted me.

[Greeting]

Oh and for the record even if MT is town (he's not, but I digress), there's a sizeable chance we get nowhere anyway. I did some quick mental math that.. No one's really bothered to do on it.

If we vote town here, them even disregarding roleblocker fear, there could potentially be three scum doctors. He gets no result on them, no result on the people they save, and no result if he shoots scum's NK target. He has a mere 4/11 chance of actually producing a result under these circumstances. Someone who doesn't die has only a 50% chance of being scum.

Even if we vote off scum here, say we have two scum doctors remaining... That's still 5 people he won't get a result on, and his chances of getting one are 6/11. Someone who doesn't die still has only a 50% chance of being scum.

It's basically taking a claim that's a coinflip of actually producing a result, that will produce nothing but coinflip results, and acting like it's "easily testable/confirmable". If we let him live today, we pretty much have to also let him live tomorrow, because of how high the chance he produces nothing even if he's town. This basically means we have to leash someone just about everyone thinks is scum until we get tired of him producing no result, as it is perfectly feasible town MT could fail to do so for 2 or 3 consecutive nights depending on our upcoming flips.

That said, I did say I was perfectly alright just throwing Mala into a volcano earlier...

Why on Earth would there be three mafia doctors? A mafia doctor is a counterbalance to a town vigilante. Do we have three vigilantes in this game, none of whom have used their roles at all?

I understand that your concern is that the mafia doctors are going to heal townies to produce fake positives for the Loyal Vigilante. The solution to this is to give

MalcolmTucker

a list of players to shoot and ask him to choose one and not tell which one until after it's done. Yes, it's that easy. There is always a chance of him getting a false positive if the mafia happen to heal that particular (town) player. But, if, let's say, there are six players on that list and we have two mafia doctors (sorry, but I don't believe that there are three mafia doctors in this setup), then there's a 4/6th chance that

MalcolmTucker

gets an accurate result. And that is all, if we assume that the mafia choose this strategy over the risk that there is, for instance, a non-Loyal Town Vigilante who can just shoot and kill one of them.

I think that while your train of thought is both possible to happen and logically sound, contains too many assumptions, and these assumptions ignore optimal strategies in favour of the idea that the mafia are just going to shock and surprise us. It is possible to happen, but leaving a townvig with Cop-like possibilities just to toy with town is so risky. In my experience, it is rare for the mafia to take a suboptimal path to win instead of the easiest one. When I roll scum, my priority is neutralising threats over leaving them be to confuse town.

[Crescent]

And honestly, the argument for voting Mala here is actually... Kinda simple. It's like a better version of the argument that should have been used on NM in 2273 on day 2.

We've cycled through a ton of trains in the back half of the day, and pressured a lot of people... While she's sat there and done virtually nothing, We are split in a lot of directions on where to go, lacking any true consensus in the last 24 hours of the day, partially because of noncontributing players like her.

Mala has fairly good scum equity by virtue of doing absolutely nothing since replacing in, until doubling down on a train of someone she has never made anything resembling an argument against for being scum. Scum Mala also reflects poorly on MT and Enchant, who are high on many peoples' scumlists, while it makes Prince more likely to be town.

If Mala is town... We lose nothing, as she's wasting a playerslot and almost certainly had to be dealt with eventually anyway.

I was against this yesterday, but if people want to give MT a day (Personally I think this is a mistake but whatever)... I can't really find any justifiable reason to defend her the way I did yesterday.

[Crescent]

Oh and for the record even if MT is town (he's not, but I digress), there's a sizeable chance we get nowhere anyway. I did some quick mental math that.. No one's really bothered to do on it.

If we vote town here, them even disregarding roleblocker fear, there could potentially be three scum doctors. He gets no result on them, no result on the people they save, and no result if he shoots scum's NK target. He has a mere 4/11 chance of actually producing a result under these circumstances. Someone who doesn't die has only a 50% chance of being scum.

Even if we vote off scum here, say we have two scum doctors remaining... That's still 5 people he won't get a result on, and his chances of getting one are 6/11. Someone who doesn't die still has only a 50% chance of being scum.

It's basically taking a claim that's a coinflip of actually producing a result, that will produce nothing but coinflip results, and acting like it's "easily testable/confirmable". If we let him live today, we pretty much have to also let him live tomorrow, because of how high the chance he produces nothing even if he's town. This basically means we have to leash someone just about everyone thinks is scum until we get tired of him producing no result, as it is perfectly feasible town MT could fail to do so for 2 or 3 consecutive nights depending on our upcoming flips.

That said, I did say I was perfectly alright just throwing Mala into a volcano earlier...

Why on Earth would there be three mafia doctors? A mafia doctor is a counterbalance to a town vigilante. Do we have three vigilantes in this game, none of whom have used their roles at all?

I understand that your concern is that the mafia doctors are going to heal townies to produce fake positives for the Loyal Vigilante. The solution to this is to give

MalcolmTucker

a list of players to shoot and ask him to choose one and not tell which one until after it's done. Yes, it's that easy. There is always a chance of him getting a false positive if the mafia happen to heal that particular (town) player. But, if, let's say, there are six players on that list and we have two mafia doctors (sorry, but I don't believe that there are three mafia doctors in this setup), then there's a 4/6th chance that

MalcolmTucker

gets an accurate result. And that is all, if we assume that the mafia choose this strategy over the risk that there is, for instance, a non-Loyal Town Vigilante who can just shoot and kill one of them.

I think that while your train of thought is both possible to happen and logically sound, contains too many assumptions, and these assumptions ignore optimal strategies in favour of the idea that the mafia are just going to shock and surprise us. It is possible to happen, but leaving a townvig with Cop-like possibilities just to toy with town is so risky. In my experience, it is rare for the mafia to take a suboptimal path to win instead of the easiest one. When I roll scum, my priority is neutralising threats over leaving them be to confuse town.

Someone said like 20 posts into the game that the last time Datisi did a setup like this, scum had three doctors.

[Crescent]

this is the last Datisi Mafia Doctor Game:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86324


3 Mafia Doctors vs a Town Gunsmith who was informed of the number of guns in the game which lead to us eliminating all our PRs and autolosing hilariously

[Crescent]

Imma sheep tm town read

VOTE: pOP

E-1 btw

This is the post I was referring to. Here she is saying that she was sheeping Andante, her strongest townread. Later she justified it by saying that she also townread Enchant, but that was more about why she didn't want to vote there rather than why she voted me.

Oh.

Oh that's even worse.

[Crescent]

Anyways I had a specific reason I needed to drag myself up until 11 tonight but I'm fading really fast now.

VOTE: Mala

If anyone has an argument for this being a bad vote, I'll read it in the morning. Like, I do think there is a marginally lower chance this is scum than Enchant, but the sheer uselessness of the player carries weight, too.

I would still be ok with anyone on that list of 4, I just really need to get some rest.

[Malakittens]

Wtf.

Serious, no.

I have been stating I been townreading enchant. Again not really seeing what makes that scummy

It is what it is.

For what’s it’s worth Mt is scummy as hell.

VOTE: mt

[Malakittens]

And honestly, the argument for voting Mala here is actually... Kinda simple. It's like a better version of the argument that should have been used on NM in 2273 on day 2.

We've cycled through a ton of trains in the back half of the day, and pressured a lot of people... While she's sat there and done virtually nothing, We are split in a lot of directions on where to go, lacking any true consensus in the last 24 hours of the day, partially because of noncontributing players like her.

Mala has fairly good scum equity by virtue of doing absolutely nothing since replacing in, until doubling down on a train of someone she has never made anything resembling an argument against for being scum. Scum Mala also reflects poorly on MT and Enchant, who are high on many peoples' scumlists, while it makes Prince more likely to be town.

If Mala is town... We lose nothing, as she's wasting a playerslot and almost certainly had to be dealt with eventually anyway.

I was against this yesterday, but if people want to give MT a day (Personally I think this is a mistake but whatever)... I can't really find any justifiable reason to defend her the way I did yesterday.

Actually I’m a Pokémon. I evolve and get stronger in endgame.

[Malakittens]

As for a vig holstering I disagree with it but it is what it is.

[Prince of Paterson]

we want to lim one of the easiest testable roles in the game?

Explain how you got from your only comment on the Malcolm situation being to quote this post, to now finding him to be "scummy as hell"?

[Datisi]

vote count 3.11

with 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2022-08-02 23:30:00).

yeet

MalcolmTucker [5]:

Unsure, UNOwen, geraintm, Vivax, Malakittens

Malakittens [4]:

Firebringer, Prince of Paterson, Greeting, Crescent

Prince of Paterson [2]:

Lowell, Andante

Enchant [1]:

MalcolmTucker

not voting [1]:

Enchant

mod notes

~ Lowell is v/la till wednesday
~ this is a mod note.

flavour

[Unsure]

VOTE: Malakittens

Less than 17 hours. Claim.

I'm gonna regret this.

[Firebringer]

I work all day expecting to come back to a malcolm flip and then mala is getting run up.
Not gonna say i hate it but i am surprised pikachu over here

[Firebringer]

And as for you,

@Malcolm

.

You are to use your role every Night for as long as you're alive in the game from now on and report whom you shot. Refusing to use your role is letting it go to waste. It's not a big deal if you kill off a suspicious townie. If you try to shoot a suspicious player and nothing happens, you must report this immediately, because there's a very good chance this means it's a scum.

If I had your role, I would use it on:

Malakittens

,

Enchant

(if he does not get eliminated today),

Unsure

,

UNOwen

and maybe

Lowell

. Order is from most preferable to least.

If you have no idea whom to shoot, because you have too many townreads, feel free to use mine or from any other player you townread the strongest. I would say that shooting someone who is not in

Firebringer

's town club is very strongly preferable.

If you refuse to work with us, then I will automatically assume that you're mafia and will push for your elimination. And there may come a time in this game when we can no longer afford to miseliminate a townie. If you're the townie who gets hunted for lack of cooperation in ELo, you will be widely blamed for our loss and rightfully so.

I hope I made myself clear.

I cosign this post

[Firebringer]

No, it does not. It could mean you were roleblocked, or it could scum saved them. Your claim has no scum-confirming power.

Can we like....rule out the possibility of a second roleblocker right now and just say it has to be a mafia doc if we want to go down this wifom road.

Like lets not be crazy here. If there is a second roleblocker scum I consider this game to be unsolvable with roles then.

[geraintm]

that was a lot to catch up on.
1st thought: If Mala turns up green then the push to them away from Malcolm is sus as fuck. there were many people who could have pushed them off the edge but didn't.

Mala, i've not looked at all because they weren't in my pool of interest. quick look and what i see mostly is a ton of defending Enchant but there is pretty much no content at all from them. i am not going to vote for them, because i don't think they are anywhere near as bad as others, but they need to post something quick otherwise they look doomed for today, just from the feel of the town.

[Enchant]

that was a lot to catch up on.
1st thought: If Mala turns up green then the push to them away from Malcolm is sus as fuck. there were many people who could have pushed them off the edge but didn't.

Mala, i've not looked at all because they weren't in my pool of interest. quick look and what i see mostly is a ton of defending Enchant but there is pretty much no content at all from them. i am not going to vote for them, because i don't think they are anywhere near as bad as others, but they need to post something quick otherwise they look doomed for today, just from the feel of the town.

You meant from Prince to Malcolm to Mala?

[MalcolmTucker]

Wtf.

Serious, no.

I have been stating I been townreading enchant. Again not really seeing what makes that scummy

It is what it is.

For what’s it’s worth Mt is scummy as hell.

VOTE: mt

Weren't you agreeing early on that I shouldn't be eliminated because of my role?

[MalcolmTucker]

And as for you,

@Malcolm

.

You are to use your role every Night for as long as you're alive in the game from now on and report whom you shot. Refusing to use your role is letting it go to waste. It's not a big deal if you kill off a suspicious townie. If you try to shoot a suspicious player and nothing happens, you must report this immediately, because there's a very good chance this means it's a scum.

If I had your role, I would use it on:

Malakittens

,

Enchant

(if he does not get eliminated today),

Unsure

,

UNOwen

and maybe

Lowell

. Order is from most preferable to least.

If you have no idea whom to shoot, because you have too many townreads, feel free to use mine or from any other player you townread the strongest. I would say that shooting someone who is not in

Firebringer

's town club is very strongly preferable.

If you refuse to work with us, then I will automatically assume that you're mafia and will push for your elimination. And there may come a time in this game when we can no longer afford to miseliminate a townie. If you're the townie who gets hunted for lack of cooperation in ELo, you will be widely blamed for our loss and rightfully so.

I hope I made myself clear.

This is fair and reasonable.

[MalcolmTucker]

that was a lot to catch up on.
1st thought: If Mala turns up green then the push to them away from Malcolm is sus as fuck. there were many people who could have pushed them off the edge but didn't.

Mala, i've not looked at all because they weren't in my pool of interest. quick look and what i see mostly is a ton of defending Enchant but there is pretty much no content at all from them. i am not going to vote for them, because i don't think they are anywhere near as bad as others, but they need to post something quick otherwise they look doomed for today, just from the feel of the town.

I still feel like Enchant could be scum because as you say there's a reluctance to actually push that through when it potentially looked like the most viable wagon at one point. I've yet to see a good towncase for the slot.

[Unsure]

I still feel like Enchant could be scum because as you say there's a reluctance to actually push that through when it potentially looked like the most viable wagon at one point.

It's like you're taunting me.

[Vivax]

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net

HEAL

bugspray

You have accepted the duel!
Please choose your weapon:

Nr. 2. Gonna need a lot of collateral damage this game, and the recoil might kill me in the process.

I truly glanced into the future in this game.
C'mon, launch something, you know you want to.

[Greeting]

Vivax

, I ask you jump on the

Malakittens

wagon and someone from the

MT

wagon announce intent to hammer. If

Mala

does not claim (and I don't expect her to do so), hammer her. It's about time this Day is over.

[Vivax]

VOTE: Malakittens

Insert witty line here