Micro 1059: Micro & Normal Stuff | GAME OVER

[Coral]

I guess if both of you failed to save Galron then maybe both of you just did what you felt would make you look the most towny

I still don't think that Datisi takes such a lackadaisical approach to the day as scum though. Not that he wasn't efforting, but that his efforting just felt like solving, and not like advancing scum wincon.

[scamper]

Shrug. The point of me looking at that section is not to say that you are scum for it. In isolation, it's absolutely something that I would lean town on. The point was more about considering "is there any world where this makes sense as scumplay?", and I decided yes, I think there is. Maybe my reason is far-fetched and your reason is better. The point is that there exists a reason, and it's a believable enough reason, so it's something I can't clear you for. That wasn't very clear in my original post, but it is what I meant.

If I were smart (or scum) and cared about having a case that people wouldn't be able to pick apart for having weak reasons, I wouldn't include that. But it's part of my thought process and I like to share my full thought process as town and I just naively assume that in doing so my townie energy will shine through

i dunno it's just your logic is really bad and narrative twist-y and seems to be working from the conclusion i am scum rather than evaluating reasonably or thinking about things in a way i can understand. the idea that wouldn't have weak reasons as scum is, well, i guess you can claim you're able to argue perfectly but i don't think that anyone is

i hope this is just you pushing a case as scum here but i have been let down enough times that i cannot be sure

[scamper]

the thing is, obviously galrons partner did not succeed in saving him, so obviously scum did not play fully optimally. and if you argument was that i was trying to save him with what i did...couldnt i have tried to do a lot more than i actually did?

"we didnt do anything to help galron" is just not very compelling to me as a towncase because you dont always have the influence to make that happen. and to me it looked like you did try pushing on other people but didnt have the presence to actually push for a wagon, if you are scum. if datisi is scum he just didnt have other places he felt safe pushing

You could have, but that would be the first thing that people would look for if Galron did flip (which he almost certainly would at some point). You can see in the hood night 1 how I am very tempted to clear you for the fact that I felt you didn't push as hard as you could have on town. Doing that is what got you to ELO here. And yet you still did some, tried to feel things out to see if anything was viable, and looked In general like you weren't pushing anything hard yourself but were positioning to be ready to jump on any of the people who were the most likely alternatives, if town ever ended up pushing there. Unfortunately for you, they never really did.

You say it looks to you like I did try pushing on other people, who would that be?

xayah

[Coral]

When did I push her after 182?

[Coral]

i dunno it's just your logic is really bad and narrative twist-y and seems to be working from the conclusion i am scum rather than evaluating reasonably or thinking about things in a way i can understand. the idea that wouldn't have weak reasons as scum is, well, i guess you can claim you're able to argue perfectly but i don't think that anyone is

i hope this is just you pushing a case as scum here but i have been let down enough times that i cannot be sure

I'm working from the conclusion that one of you is scum, and trying to figure out which narrative makes sense more, so yes, that's more or less exactly what I'm doing.

I townread both of you, that's why I preferred elims on Xayah and Meg. But one of those townreads is wrong, and I have to figure out which one. In order to do that, I like to look at the reasons I had for townreading people and try to imagine how they could fit into a pattern of play that makes sense for scum. If I can do that, then I assess whether that play is more likely than them just being town. If I can't do that, then I still see them as town.

In this case I can look at both possible patterns of play and directly compare them, because I know that one of them is coming from scum. So far I've found more ways that it feels like your play kind of clicks as believable from scum, and not a lot of ways where it feels like Datisi's play makes sense to me as coming from scum.

[Coral]

And it's not that I can always argue perfectly as scum (although I do think I'm generally better at making sure my arguments are clean and convincing as scum). It's that as scum I would care more about making a case, and convincing one of the town that the other is scum, and I want to look good doing so, and not leave them a lot of room to push back.

As town I just want to solve the game and reach the right answer, and explain how I got there. Maybe it's a flaw in my play that I am less focused on how rational those reasons will seem to others, since it can make it easy for people to disregard my points, but I can't really help it. And I'm always happy to talk more and clarify my thought process further.

[scamper]

scamper then has their argument with Meg. At the end of it, they say they want to vote Galron but doesn't want to E-1, so Meg does it. Which... probably was unexpected, actually, since they were previously voting scamper, just had a huge argument with them, and then scamper said that they wanted to vote Galron. It seems pretty possible to me that the argument could have been intentional from scum scamper, trying to draw Meg's attention and keep their vote from compromising on Galron (which they said they were willing to do in 626) due to the hope that they wouldn't want to work together with scamper.

Galron shows up with this post:

I'm not going to closely read the last 13 pages unless there's somehting I need to see. I did a skim through and I'm okay with limming donempire at this point. His whole e-1 thing doesn't read as genuine and his reliance on mech is easy to fake. I don't know who his buddies are but more votes on done please.

He clearly hasn't read things, but he probably has read the scum PT. And I would be willing to bet that somewhere in that scum PT is a post saying something along the lines of "i think i can get us an elim on don". That would be why Galron thinks that's where things are heading. The post, unfortunately for the scum team, looks awful, and is potentially game-losing if I'm right on this connection. I don't think that Datisi would be the one to make that post in the scum PT, because he had only 50 posts ago actively stepped away from the Don elim. scamper meanwhile has been setting things up for a Don elim for a while now. Predicting why Galron said that is the sort of speculation that I wouldn't want to bet the game on, but it is still a factor for me.

i just happened to look back on the context for this again and this is actually horrbile

you argument is that galron somehow was plugged into the scum pt enough to come in and think pushing for a don elim made sense

but contextually he had just been put to E-1 by meg after we had finished fighting and came in right to see that

do you really believe that what i would be talking about in the scum PT is "hey we should keep pushing don" and not about my slapfight with meg, or something to the effect of "hey wake up and actually play the game instead of being a lurky piece of crap, you're at E-1"?

i struggle to believe this is a real thought you had

[Coral]

I think that he probably had that thought leftover from earlier, when it did seem like a Don elimination was possible. I think that it was only when Datisi voted Galron that his death seemed inevitable. I don't know exactly what the scum PT would look like, but if you're scum with Galron, I imagine that at some point you said you were hoping for a Don elim. Maybe after that you posted either of the things that you mentioned, but he still could have that idea in his head.

[Coral]

I had something similar happen with Cakez in my previous game, maybe that's why the possibility was on my mind. I'll see if I can find it.

[Coral]

Okay, here. I'll spoiler this since it isn't directly about this game.

Spoiler: from Eurybia's Curse

Prior to the start of day 3, where we desperately need a town elim but have a very narrow POE to work with, I lay out what I think our plan should be and where it's most likely that we elim.

Subject: Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Mafia PT

So, the only thing we really need to do is keep you alive. the townblock that we choose will likely be leading things. that makes me want to not put Faker in, and means there is some benefit to putting Meuh in.

The fact that nobody escaped actually does give us a slight advantage, it means the obvious miselims are still available. For example, marci.

I'm trying to consider if there's any world where the paranoia on Isis or Ari is worth leaving them unconfirmed. Would they ever hard bus, knowing that they'd have to confirm 5 others? I just don't really think it's believable. Isis and Ari in the townblock will shield me as well, hopefully.

GL seems like an obvious clear as well. He's not getting eliminated. He had a Pav/gamma teamread as well, which I'm going to be trying to play up.

Fruit would be a gamble to leave unconfirmed, but he seems like too obvious miselim bait, and I think the players here are smart enough to know he's town.

So I think for me it's down to Meuh or Titus. I will reread some and see if anything stands out.

It will make for likely a very tough game, where I'm fighting it out with skitter and faker, but I think it's winnable. There's even a world, I think, where I go very hard today to push a town lim and escape myself and hope you can coast in final day since they'll be looking for someone more widely townread. I don't think it's our most likely path, but it's a possibility

yea I still think that's best

remember all you need to do is survive today

feel free to do some crime

I think as long as I don't get traced back with bad Pav associatives we can def make Gamma or Marci the lim here today

we definitely could have if gamma wasn't faker now... i will try but i think it will mostly be in vain, but hopefully we can end with a compromise on marci

We go in thinking that Marci is our best shot at miselimination. Cakez will push there, I'll push elsewhere but end up willing to compromise if necessary. The day progresses for a while, and due to various circumstances, Marci is no longer looking like the best option and looks concerningly like low hanging fruit. I post this:

this is going to be tricky actually, because i don't think marci is the lim today, it's probably meuh. which means i have to flip skitter tomorrow. which means i have to post the case today. hmm.

Then Cakez shows up in main thread and continues his Marci push.

Subject: Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Game Over!

I guess I'm just confused why Meuh decides to unvote where she did because

(1) Pavo didn't do anything townie
(2) the people voting Pavo and joining her weren't being scumread by her?

it's such a weird hop off to me.

I really think its meuh, this just seems so scummy to me

Basically this + my PoE has led me to Marci + Meuh

and posts this in the scum PT:

We are doing really well we just need to not rock the boat
Maybe find a way to slide towards scumreading skitter and meuhs more

We were not doing really well, things were actually quite dire, but he was busy and wasn't super active in thread and didn't have that great of a read on things and felt like we could just keep moving forward with the previous plan. I hadn't really been laying out the extent of how the situation had developed in the scum PT because, like you said, sometimes teams don't always keep each other up to date about everything that's going on, because they expect that the other partner is reading the thread and can see the same things. In this case I should have, because Cakez sticking on Marci and not developing his read there at all put him in a much weaker position. I think the situation with Galron could have easily played out in a similar manner.

[Coral]

Spoiler: additional thought i forgot to mention

You can also see in that how he thought that the Gamma slot was still an easy miselim, despite that Gamma had been replaced by Faker a while earlier, who is very difficult to miselim. The plans changed as a result of that replacement but he didn't quite update his own pushes to respond to that in time. Galron's post here just heavily reminded me of those vibes, where he comes in and is like "yeah guys this is still the plan, right? let's go!", not fully realizing that the situation has changed completely.

[scamper]

i dont think its debatable that galron was obviously not paying attention because he is a lazy slug of a player and that is why he made that post

i think implying that post makes us likely to be partners is ridiculous past the point of being credible

[Coral]

I think that it is perfectly reasonable to suspect that based on that post, Galron thought that Don was the best chance at a miselim. I will stand by that.

I also think that, considering you did more to position for a Don elim and Datisi actively stepped away from going down that path, it's more likely that you if scum were planning for a Don miselim than Datisi was if scum. I really don't think that's ridiculous at all.

[Coral]

The third point would be that I expect that either of you or Datisi, if scum, would share in the scum PT at some point what your general plans are and who you think is most likely to be miselimmable.

Which of those do you find too ridiculous to be credible?

[scamper]

i think it is reasonable enough to think he thought don was the best push or the one that at least made the most sense, seeing as how that is the vote he entered the game with (i am not sure galron even thinks that tactically tbh)

i think it is beyond ridiculous to assume that makes us likely to be partners given that i immediately crapped on his reasoning for don-scum when to that point i had been suspicious of don. if i wanted to start a wagon on don i dont shut down my partner pushing him because its just undermining what im working toward

the whole thing is conspiracy theory level reasoning from you - because i at one point in time suspected don, who galron was also pushing, we are likely to be partners. that is logic that probably wouldn't pass muster in the newbie queue.

[Coral]

i think it is beyond ridiculous to assume that makes us likely to be partners given that i immediately crapped on his reasoning for don-scum when to that point i had been suspicious of don. if i wanted to start a wagon on don i dont shut down my partner pushing him because its just undermining what im working toward

You pushed back on Galron's Don reasoning in 259. At this point you were saying that you thought Don was overconfident town (269). I don't see any reason to think that you would have been planning for a Don elim at this point in the game.

Your read pivots starting around 418. That's when you start building up a case on Don, and unvote Galron. From that point until where Datisi votes Galron instead of Don (or Meg), you keep that suspicion. Probably the peak of likelihood of Don's elimination was around when you posted 677. This is the point that I'm talking about, where it feels like a Don elim is any scumteam's best shot at avoiding an elim on Galron.

The timeline you're providing here just isn't really relevant to what actually happened in the game, or what I'm talking about.

You can insult my logic and be reductive of my point all you want, but I feel like I laid it out pretty clearly and asked for what the issue with it was and you just dodged that completely to talk about how your vote on Galron way back on page 11 was about his Don suspicion.

[scamper]

I don't see any reason to think that you would have been planning for a Don elim at this point in the game.

so again isnt th simplest explanation that galron showed up, found something surface level he could push don on, and stopped paying attention to the game?

[Coral]

if i wanted to start a wagon on don i dont shut down my partner pushing him because its just undermining what im working toward

Like. This is so incredibly divorced from the point that I was making. Nowhere did I say that you were working towards a Don elim in the first 10 pages, although you did have some suspicion there at first. I've spent posts and posts talking about how that push developed in the mid part of day starting in 418.

[scamper]

if "peak likelihood" of a don elim was...1 vote, from galron, and me, his alleged buddy, pushing him but NOT voting him, just criticizing his logic


thats not a compelling or believable case

[scamper]

no, ur point is that i suspected don and galron was pushing don so that makes us likely to be partners because galron made a post about how we should elim don so we must be communicating in the pt.

[Coral]

I don't see any reason to think that you would have been planning for a Don elim at this point in the game.

so again isnt th simplest explanation that galron showed up, found something surface level he could push don on, and stopped paying attention to the game?

Yes, that's a valid and believable explanation, for the most part, although I would still question why he seemed to believe that a Don elimination was imminent.

I don't exactly think that this is some huge pillar of my case or anything. It's a relatively minor point. I barely even mentioned it in the summary that I had.

[scamper]

tell me what parts of that statement are an incorrect portrayal of your case

[scamper]

if thats the case then why are you doubling down on it?

[Coral]

if "peak likelihood" of a don elim was...1 vote, from galron, and me, his alleged buddy, pushing him but NOT voting him, just criticizing his logic


thats not a compelling or believable case

I don't think this is worth talking about if you either can't or pretend to be unable to see that there was a significant amount of latent suspicion on Galron that hadn't been expressed in votes.

[Coral]

if thats the case then why are you doubling down on it?

Because you keep asking about it and I am a fool who is unable to stop trying to explain my thought process in a vain attempt to be understood