Warrior Cats Mafia [Day Three]

[Dannflor]

I just think I'm still well within my scum range and last time I was scum in a large I flaked out

I know it's not alignment indicative for me but I don't really expect everyone else to think that

I don't know I think I've been keeping a lot of thoughts to myself and slowplaying this game a lot so it's a little weird to me that I'm just flying under the radar

idk fire can you explain more what has been towny about me while I'm here? I feel like you would've reevaluated me by now

[SCRRRDBEAR]

I wanted to see how you’d react, since you seem very confident.
I wanted to see if you might slow down, or hesitate or think on whether your read was really correct or not.

OKAY I GET THAT. DID YOU GLEAN ANYTHING FROM MY REACTION?

[Bell]

You’re well in my scum range Dan. Since you kind of flaked out the last two days without explanation.

[Bell]

I wanted to see how you’d react, since you seem very confident.
I wanted to see if you might slow down, or hesitate or think on whether your read was really correct or not.

OKAY I GET THAT. DID YOU GLEAN ANYTHING FROM MY REACTION?

You may be alone and you’re probably a whale if you play phone games.

[SCRRRDBEAR]

I wanted to see how you’d react, since you seem very confident.
I wanted to see if you might slow down, or hesitate or think on whether your read was really correct or not.

OKAY I GET THAT. DID YOU GLEAN ANYTHING FROM MY REACTION?

You may be alone and you’re probably a whale if you play phone games.

[fireisredsir]

I just think I'm still well within my scum range and last time I was scum in a large I flaked out

I know it's not alignment indicative for me but I don't really expect everyone else to think that

I don't know I think I've been keeping a lot of thoughts to myself and slowplaying this game a lot so it's a little weird to me that I'm just flying under the radar

idk fire can you explain more what has been towny about me while I'm here? I feel like you would've reevaluated me by now

i think you keeping thoughts to yourself and slow playing is like exactly what i expect from you as town tho. that specifically was what i remember ari saying made you dangerous as town in turing test

you seem like you are clearly having thoughts under the hood and engaging with people when you want to

ive liked your gamestate observations and i think those are generally less likely to come from scum, at least out of nowhere

i liked your engagement with me earlier, felt pure and didn't give pockety vibes at all

idk i just haven't felt any reason to reevaluate on you since finding your d1 to be towny. i gave it some consideration after catboi's case but it wasn't really that convincing to me and then he later kinda took it back anyway

also tbh you being kinda missing lately does nothing to make me feel like you're more likely to be scum. id probably be more worried if it felt like you were trying to control things here, but ig it's true i don't really know how you like to play scum

why do you think i would have reevaluated you?

[SCRRRDBEAR]

WAS THE ASSOCIATION EXERCISE DONE IN MAIN-THREAD? I DON'T REMEMBER READING THAT.

I'm talking about 1434. And looking at it again now, there was actually six reads, so even the minor scumping on Norwee was my mistake.

WHY ARE YOU TREATING SHIRO AS TOWN (JUST THE CLAIM?)

Correct. I have another small independent reason to leantown on shiro, but it's the claim that's made me just put that read aside for now. Same logic as Titus, but it'll depend on what the claim actually is. We will need clarification before too long.

WHY AREN'T YOU INTERESTED IN ASSOCIATIVES WITH TITUS? THE FACT THAT TITUS CHOSE WIND CLAN AND WON'T TALK ABOUT WHY MAKES ME THE MOST INTERESTED IN ASSOCIATIVES WITH HER.

My point in that previous posts is that I was looking at the number of scum in the original Windclan members - I can't see any reason Titus could, or could not be scum with any other member of Windclan, so when I say there is likely 0 or 1 scum in Windclan, that's actually 0, 1 or 2 when you add in Titus. My working theory at the moment is that if titus is scum (and my independant read on Titus has been a light townlean for mech reasons we discussed earlier, ircc) scum sent her to Windclan (and perhaps took advantage of the swap mecahnic fire told us about to make sure it was specifically Titus, who I understand has a reputation that proceeds) to make sure they had someone in Windclan - ie: that she is telling us the truth one way or another about Windclan simply being the towniest. She has also hinted there are undisclosed mech reasons why Windclan was the choice and I'm happy to defer drawing conclusions about Titus today to see what those are and if that changes things for me.

OKAY, GREAT. I FEEL LIKE WE MIGHT BE ON THE SAME PAGE OVERALL AND I'M INCLINED TO AGREE WITH YOUR NORWEE/ALISAE TAKES. THE MAIN DISCORDANCE IS I'M SCUM LEANING TITUS RATHER THAN TOWN LEANING THEM, THOUGH I'M NOT ULTRA CONFIDENT ON THAT YET.

[Dannflor]

why do you think i would have reevaluated you?

I guess I feel like I inevitably get paranoid about you in games and the fact that I have been town reading you for so long thus far makes me feel like you would have some suspicion about that

[fireisredsir]

i didn't know you were "townreading me for so long"

the last time you expressed a read on me was 1009

and id actually think it more likely that you make a show of being paranoid about me as scum bc you'd want to replicate past behavior (at least thats how i would be likely to play it in your position, and i get the feeling you have a similar style but thats kind of a guess)

as town i wouldn't expect that pattern to necessarily continue forever

i think ive gotten better at understanding your playstyle and reading you over time and i would expect the same from you

[Dannflor]

Okay I'll skip the fire scum case for right now because I don't actually know if I feel confident in that right now and I don't want another catboi situation

as far as Kitty and T3 goes

here's my gamestate read

If Kitty and T3 are T/S, I absolutely think scum are going to be bussing their scum buddy here, and thus I think scum is going to be the bigger wagon. I don't think as a scum team you see scum!T3 and town!Kitty and say, oh! We can get a miselim onto Kitty! You just burn all your town credit doing that and burning T3 for credit is way more beneficial than jamming Kitty through. Like, I really don't think you play the way, for example SCRRRDBEAR has been playing, if you are scum with T3 here. If T3 is town and Kitty is scum, the same logic applies. I don't think either slot realistically has a ton of legs in this game. The flip side of town!T3 and scum!Kitty I think means we'd be looking at a gamestate where it's almost all scum on Kitty and mostly all town on T3, which I don't really think makes sense.

If Kitty and T3 are S/S, I'd ask why the hell there hasn't been a 3rd counterwagon for so long. I guess recently there's alisae, but my gut says that's a lot more likely to be motivated by town getting restless than scum deciding they need to change the gamestate and save their buddies. I don't think scum lets themselves get into the position where the top two wagons are two scum for so long. Maybe I'm overestimating town but the fact it took this long for any sort of counter wagon to even be proposed makes me think this is unlikely.

If Kitty and T3 are T/T I'd actually expect Kitty to be the main one getting pushed here? T3 is producing virtually nothing to town read whereas Kitty actually has some life in him. Both would be viable miseliminations but T3 is nice and easy to save for later, he's never gonna town it up more than he is right now (or at least I doubt it). Whereas Kitty is actually showing life and might actually get harder to kill later on.

okay now I have actual play related reasons to think T3 is scum and Kitty is town, which I will post shortly, but I wanted to get that out there before my power goes out again

[Charloux]

god I love when I finally catch someone doing some real scummy shit and the entire game goes "lalalala I can't hear you"

I love mafia

I love the games on this website

Charloux is bad. Scum promote the bad. Rarely do scum push early unless someone is hyper accurate.

How many potential miselims are you going to take on average before you start looking at stuff outside the obvious.
T3, Kitty and Marashu are widely scum read, so you are just going to promote them without considering other options?
THAT is bad.

[Dannflor]

hm yeah I guess I expected you to be able to read my mind there

the cliff notes of my scum case on you were that I feel you were being overly performative in a few key points but I guess if I'm being honest with myself that's kind of just a key feature of your playstyle, you like being transparent

I also thought your role was likely a scum fake claim because it seems to have 0 utility and also helps explain you staying alive long after being activated

and I thought it was unlikely you actually didn't know there was 5 scum in the game

but meh

it's not great

some of it was how you handled T3 too, I thought it there was some partner equity

I'd always want to kill T3 first here though

[Dannflor]

so T3 being scum

The constant updates on catching up and notices that he's catching up are generally +scum. I think once or twice is usually fine but the volume of those posts in T3's ISO prevents someone who is very image conscious.

In general, I believe T3 is playing to get town read and stay alive. I don't think it is towny for this to be a primary motivator for someone. The only real significant content that T3 has produced has been catchup "notes," which are maybe the easiest type of content for scum to produce. Past that, T3 has not voted anyone despite coming into the game with several town reads. Why isn't he voting his counter wagon? Why isn't he pushing anyone? He pops in to explain his reads to people but it feels like... he's trying to appease people. He most recently said that he's playing to "gauge reads and not get limmed" in 2733 and I think he's exactly playing to not get limmed, and I don't think that's towny.

Funnily enough, I kinda scum read him for similar reasons that catboi had concerning my walls way back when I was elucidating town reads on datisi/scrrrdbear/fire. Mine were unprompted so they are Good and Towny , but T3 is clearly just posting things like 2315 and 2565 to get town read. It's really not clear to me that T3 has *anything* that he cares about. He's not defending anyone nor is he pushing anyone. He's just like having and explaining reads because he knows that that's what he's supposed to do. And the lack of bite or passion behind anything makes me think he's playing more to the anti-spew side of things.

Like, I would probably expect a similar level of content from T3 if he was town. Maybe even less. However, I would also expect him to *want* things. Townies have genuine opinions about the game.

I mean, this is basically just me putting a lot more words to mistyx's read in 2719

but I think it's very true. T3 is posting to look town and not get limmed and to just stay afloat. It seemed like catching up and taking notes was a *chore* for him.

I just don't believe T3 is actually thinking about this game and I think if he was town there would be at least a sliver of that somewhere.

[fireisredsir]

idk setup stuff like that isn't usually something that sticks in my brain, especially early its just not really something that matters imo

on t3 what about it? specifically like what do you think i would be doing differently as town vs as scum

bc idk i can kinda see how you would think i could approach that situation this way as scum, but i don't see what about it makes that more likely

[Titus]

god I love when I finally catch someone doing some real scummy shit and the entire game goes "lalalala I can't hear you"

I love mafia

I love the games on this website

Charloux is bad. Scum promote the bad. Rarely do scum push early unless someone is hyper accurate.

How many potential miselims are you going to take on average before you start looking at stuff outside the obvious.
T3, Kitty and Marashu are widely scum read, so you are just going to promote them without considering other options?
THAT is bad.

I am not promoting Kitty or Marashu wagons.

[NorwegianboyEE]

@Dann
I also think it’s worth noting that T3 seems to have just given up on even posting in our hood. And he has been ignoring my questions for why he isn’t posting there, no explanation. Nothing.
But yet they keep coming in with some random ass pop in "reads" in main thread. It just feels really fake cus i tgink town!him would be trying lot more to understand our hood dynamics than just come in with stale memes and reads.

[catboi]

Okay I'll skip the fire scum case for right now because I don't actually know if I feel confident in that right now and I don't want another catboi situation

as far as Kitty and T3 goes

here's my gamestate read

If Kitty and T3 are T/S, I absolutely think scum are going to be bussing their scum buddy here, and thus I think scum is going to be the bigger wagon. I don't think as a scum team you see scum!T3 and town!Kitty and say, oh! We can get a miselim onto Kitty! You just burn all your town credit doing that and burning T3 for credit is way more beneficial than jamming Kitty through. Like, I really don't think you play the way, for example SCRRRDBEAR has been playing, if you are scum with T3 here. If T3 is town and Kitty is scum, the same logic applies. I don't think either slot realistically has a ton of legs in this game. The flip side of town!T3 and scum!Kitty I think means we'd be looking at a gamestate where it's almost all scum on Kitty and mostly all town on T3, which I don't really think makes sense.

If Kitty and T3 are S/S, I'd ask why the hell there hasn't been a 3rd counterwagon for so long. I guess recently there's alisae, but my gut says that's a lot more likely to be motivated by town getting restless than scum deciding they need to change the gamestate and save their buddies. I don't think scum lets themselves get into the position where the top two wagons are two scum for so long. Maybe I'm overestimating town but the fact it took this long for any sort of counter wagon to even be proposed makes me think this is unlikely.

If Kitty and T3 are T/T I'd actually expect Kitty to be the main one getting pushed here? T3 is producing virtually nothing to town read whereas Kitty actually has some life in him. Both would be viable miseliminations but T3 is nice and easy to save for later, he's never gonna town it up more than he is right now (or at least I doubt it). Whereas Kitty is actually showing life and might actually get harder to kill later on.

okay now I have actual play related reasons to think T3 is scum and Kitty is town, which I will post shortly, but I wanted to get that out there before my power goes out again

Honestly, I don't feel like you can really neatly predict what scum are going to do at all in a situation like this, because scum do weird shit. As an example I would've expected Ircher was bussed into the ground in Datisi's cafe but that wasn't really the case. I think if T3 town/kittytacky scum you get maybe mostly town voting T3 and a few scum while 1-2 positioned themselves on KT for cred ater, hoping town shoots itself in the foot. that's really pretty common I think. in the case of T/T...maybe they just get more people who agree that KT is town, IDK. point being is that this type of stuff is rarely as simple as it seems and that's why I don't like making these types of predictions.

Who are you even suggesting is potentially bussing T3, besides fire?

The stuff about T3's play is ~fair but even then I just think he's....very not good and I can see this coming from town-him but I don't know what the fuck you

do

about that

[Dannflor]

Kitty being town. I don't think SCRRRDBEAR's read of "Kitty doesn't want to let his scum team mates down" really lines up with my experience of Kitty in Turing Test. I feel that at a certain point scum!Kitty just kind of rolled over. Whereas here it seems like he's fighting tooth and nail. I also don't really think it meshes with the meta of Kitty apparently dying D1 as scum very often. I don't think if Kitty consistently has this level of play as scum, that he is very likely to be the D1 elimination in the average lobby.

Beyond that feeling that Kitty's play here is very different from what I know of his scum game, I generally liked how Kitty handled the 1v1 with Alisae. I think it would be very easy for scum!Kitty to kinda hide behind that conflict and spew AtE. I think generally the way he approached that was with still trying to understand Alisae despite uh, being insulted. And I think the tone he responds with, "I know I'm bad but I'm *trying*" or, "if you're town I'm sorry for being incompetent" are generally pretty towny because I would expect scum!Kitty to feign anger or get a lot more defensive. Kitty seems very open to being wrong and overall kinda demoralized that they are being run up. I would not expect this from a scum!Kitty that knows they don't have a great scum game. I think they would understand why they were being run up and also maybe not really care because it seems like they have a lot more fun as town than scum?

I also agree with mistyx's take (I think it was her) that Kitty taking offense over his read accuracy is +town. It's such a small point that doesn't actually matter but is definitely the type of thing town would get hung up on as being Very Important.

And, this might get a laugh out of a few people, despite saying "I'm town" over and over again, I don't really think Kitty is playing to "look town." Or at the very least, they are doing things beyond just appeasing people. They actually seem to care about their reads and pushing what they believe in. I think they believe they are probably to get limmed but want to try anyway, and based on what I've seen of scum!Kitty, I don't think Kitty puts anywhere near this much effort into that if they believe they are in danger of being limmed.

[Cephrir]

so T3 being scum

The constant updates on catching up and notices that he's catching up are generally +scum. I think once or twice is usually fine but the volume of those posts in T3's ISO prevents someone who is very image conscious.

In general, I believe T3 is playing to get town read and stay alive. I don't think it is towny for this to be a primary motivator for someone. The only real significant content that T3 has produced has been catchup "notes," which are maybe the easiest type of content for scum to produce. Past that, T3 has not voted anyone despite coming into the game with several town reads. Why isn't he voting his counter wagon? Why isn't he pushing anyone? He pops in to explain his reads to people but it feels like... he's trying to appease people. He most recently said that he's playing to "gauge reads and not get limmed" in 2733 and I think he's exactly playing to not get limmed, and I don't think that's towny.

Funnily enough, I kinda scum read him for similar reasons that catboi had concerning my walls way back when I was elucidating town reads on datisi/scrrrdbear/fire. Mine were unprompted so they are Good and Towny , but T3 is clearly just posting things like 2315 and 2565 to get town read. It's really not clear to me that T3 has *anything* that he cares about. He's not defending anyone nor is he pushing anyone. He's just like having and explaining reads because he knows that that's what he's supposed to do. And the lack of bite or passion behind anything makes me think he's playing more to the anti-spew side of things.

Like, I would probably expect a similar level of content from T3 if he was town. Maybe even less. However, I would also expect him to *want* things. Townies have genuine opinions about the game.

I mean, this is basically just me putting a lot more words to mistyx's read in 2719

but I think it's very true. T3 is posting to look town and not get limmed and to just stay afloat. It seemed like catching up and taking notes was a *chore* for him.

I just don't believe T3 is actually thinking about this game and I think if he was town there would be at least a sliver of that somewhere.

i dont really disagree with this, although if he is playing to stay alive he is doing a bad job

i wish i could reasonably hope that an active vig exists

[Cephrir]

a mailman would actually be pretty cool in this setup you could get someone to crumb how bad they need a ceremony and then send it to a leader you trust the next night

[Dannflor]

Honestly, I don't feel like you can really neatly predict what scum are going to do at all in a situation like this, because scum do weird shit. As an example I would've expected Ircher was bussed into the ground in Datisi's cafe but that wasn't really the case. I think if T3 town/kittytacky scum you get maybe mostly town voting T3 and a few scum while 1-2 positioned themselves on KT for cred ater, hoping town shoots itself in the foot. that's really pretty common I think. in the case of T/T...maybe they just get more people who agree that KT is town, IDK. point being is that this type of stuff is rarely as simple as it seems and that's why I don't like making these types of predictions.

Who are you even suggesting is potentially bussing T3, besides fire?

yeah, I get that. scum like to be nonsensical. It's not really the strongest of points.

I think it's a little confbiasy in that I already think KittyTacky is town individually

and I have a hard time imagining scum pushing KittyTacky hard in this gamestate. Maybe like 1 scum would.

as far as who is bussing?

maybe Val89. I know he's not voting T3 but I think he would if the wagon hadn't grown so fast.

I think there's maybe a scum in Norwe/Alisae. But just one.

I think Titus is scummy

[Charloux]

I am not promoting Kitty or Marashu wagons.

So i'm bad for having an opinion outside the "Meta" comfort, but you are town because you don't?
If this isn't it explain to me why me having a personal opinion is bad.

[Cephrir]

if the wagons are T/T scum will just not care and do whatever they think they can sell as town

[Dannflor]

VOTE: T3

[Dannflor]

If the wagons are T/T, whoever just tried to start the alisae wagon is probably +town

catboi and fire I think? or catboi and datisi?