FFVII Mafia: Over

[CarnCarn]

Let me clarify my position on the massclaim: I don't think there is a need for it now.

If in fact the scum are almost at parity with the town here (as some scenarios have suggested), then massclaiming really decreases our chances of making a comeback. It could not only out a remaining turk-cop, but also any other important roles (vig, doc, etc.) that will be almost necessary for winning. I think massclaim now could just give the scum too much info in return for very little.
And if there are only ~4 scum or so, then massclaiming probably won't help much either because, as IAAUN suggested, they might have strong party claims for starting off with fewer numbers. So far though, the two lynched scum (CML, Lowell), have had bland safeclaims (especially for SK; if anyone would get a better safeclaim, I would have thought SKs would).

In short, I think massclaiming now will out protown power roles and hand the game to the scum.

I also find IAAUN and Yos2's support for massclaiming here to be out of place. Yos2's reasoning is that it would "make it harder for them [scum] to hide," but I don't know why he thinks this is true.
IAAUN's reason is that it would allow us to semi-confirm Zakeri as town (not fully, because of scum-cop theory) or as scum. He also gives some setup speculation about safeclaims in 3 vs. 4 man scum teams, and even says that massclaiming could produce results that are inconclusive (if in fact a Turk cop claims), yet he still supports massclaim. The logic in 1670 just seems... forced.

I'm going to

Unvote: Cephrir

, who seems... compliant, now. I don't know if that is more likely a scum or town response, though. Still

IGMEOY

.
And

Vote: IAAUN

for pushing massclaim on forced logic in 1670.

[Yosarian2]

I also find IAAUN and Yos2's support for massclaiming here to be out of place. Yos2's reasoning is that it would "make it harder for them [scum] to hide," but I don't know why he thinks this is true.

The advantage to a mass claim is that it (sometimes, hopefully) tends to semi-clear some people, who have either very convincing role names, strong role claims, or both. (Of course, tricksy mods can make either one problimatic, but still.) In doing that, it narrows down the people who might be scum; considering we are likely IMHO to have a fairly large number of scum left, by clearing some pro-town people in a mass claim, there would be "less places for scum to hide"; that is, a limited number of suspects left, many of them being scum.

Of course, that makes a number of assumptions, any of which could be wrong, but that is generally the reasons towns do massclaims is in the hopes that the claims narrow down the number of probable scum.

I wouldn't necessarally say I'm in favor of it; outing the other cop is a pretty high price to pay, as I said. I could go either way on it. But yes, that is the main reason any town ever does a mass claim, is that it leaves less places for the scum to hide, and might catch a careless scum with a bad or duplicate false claim if we're very lucky.

[Natirasha]

If

we

the two scum teams started with four members each

baaahahahaha

vote: iamausername

Vote: iamausername

Post also implies fakeclaims.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I'm a little ahead of schedule as I just finished reading the first 1000 posts, so I expect to be done by tomorrow.

[Jebus]

I'll make this short and sweet, and not just restate logic already posted in my own words.

I agree with CarnCarn 1675. Especially "The logic in 1670 seemed forced"

unvote
Vote: IAUN

[Cephrir]

Vote: Natirasha

For wagoning someone who's been pretty protown all game based at least partially on that "we" typo and partially for a reason that I don't even get. Explain yourself more, Nat.

Nat hasn't exactly been a brilliant beacon of protownness, as well.

[Empking]

If

we

the two scum teams started with four members each

baaahahahaha

vote: iamausername

Vote: iamausername

Post also implies fakeclaims.

Aren't fakeclaims normal?

I'm not going to vote a player that's been pro-town based on that "we" even if he is scum does that sentance make sense?

I don't think the role claim logic forced, its wrong though.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

I'll be able to read this up monday. Until then

Random Vote: Jebus

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I'm now fully caught up.

First of all, I oppose the mass claim, many others have already uttered reasons. Now to the tasty part of my post:

Vote count analysis of major wagons of players who are confirmed town players:

Vote Count Number Five: Ninja votecount

Xtoxm

- 11 (Cludsy, armlx, Albert B. Rampage,

christiano drago

,

westbrook_owns_u/CarnCarn, iamausername, Zakeri

, TonyMontana, forbiddanlight,

DynamoXI

,

Yosarian2

)

armlx

- 8 (Xtoxm,

wolframnhart/Kscope

,

ilord

, ghostwriter, kloud1516,

CallMeLiam

,

Empking, Jebus

)

Vote Count Number Six: I hate Elias' way o counting votes votecount

Xtoxm

- 14 (Cludsy, armlx, Albert B. Rampage,

christiano drago

,

westbrook_owns_u/CarnCarn, iamausername, Zakeri

, TonyMontana, forbiddanlight,

Yosarian2, SpamWise/Cephrir, Zac/Natirasha

, Cavebear with a toothache/MM,

Empking

)

armlx

- 5 (Xtoxm,

wolframnhart/Kscope

,

ilord

, kloud1516,

CallMeLiam

)

Vote Count Number Thirteen: The "PWN him with your Omnislash" Votecount

TonyMontana

- 6 (

iamausername, Cephrir, christiano drago

, kloud1516,

Jebus

, Cavebear with a toothache)

Vote Count Number Seventeen: The "cosplay" Votecount

Albert B. Rampage

- 10 (

DynamoXI

,

Grimmy

,

MBPikamon

, TonyMontana,

MrBuddyLee, Christiano Drago, Yosarian2

,

CarnCarn

,

CallMeLiam

, kloud1516)

Vote Count Number Twenty One: The "Cloud is Emo" Votecount

TonyMontana

- 5 (

Jebus, iamausername, CarnCarn, Cephrir, Yosarian2

)

Bolded names are currently alive players excluding cavebear/me. Green names are confirmed town wagons. Red names are confirmed scum.

Assumptions:
1. Being on one town wagon makes a player slightly more likely to be scum
2. Frequently being on multiple town wagons makes a player much more likely to be scum

Frequency out of the 5 possible above and whether player is on a town wagon during all three days:
Yosarian2 - 4, YES
Empking - 2, NO
KaleiÃ

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Not to be nitpicking, but according to your theory, people not voting are less likely to be scum.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

[quote="KaleiÃ

[CarnCarn]

Assumptions:
1. Being on one town wagon makes a player slightly more likely to be scum
2. Frequently being on multiple town wagons makes a player much more likely to be scum

I think these assumptions need to be challenged given the setup and history of this game. Here are some points:

1. Multiple scum groups, possibly large, make it no less likely for scum to be on scum wagons.
2. D1 saw a player (xtoxm) perform some very scummy actions. Town votes for who they think is most scummy.
3. D2 was a realization that ABR lied horribly about his own role in order to "push the xtoxm lynch" which many found to be scummy. Also, seemed like there was a good possibility of him being SK. Town votes for who they think is most scummy.

[Yosarian2]

Assumptions:
1. Being on one town wagon makes a player slightly more likely to be scum
2. Frequently being on multiple town wagons makes a player much more likely to be scum

And you're coming up with these assumptions based on what?

People who agressivly bandwagon, who use their votes agressivly, are much more likely to be town. People who either don't vote, or who avoid major bandwagons, are more likely to be scum. So if you pick the "major bandwagon" of the day, town or scum, most of the people on it will be town, and town are probably more likely to join it then scum are.

It's especally dumb in this case; since there is a good reason Xtoxm was wagoned day 1 and Albert was wagoned day 2; they both blatenlty lied about their roles.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

1. Multiple scum groups, possibly large, make it no less likely for scum to be on scum wagons.
2. D1 saw a player (xtoxm) perform some very scummy actions. Town votes for who they think is most scummy.
3. D2 was a realization that ABR lied horribly about his own role in order to "push the xtoxm lynch" which many found to be scummy. Also, seemed like there was a good possibility of him being SK. Town votes for who they think is most scummy.

And you're coming up with these assumptions based on what?

People who agressivly bandwagon, who use their votes agressivly, are much more likely to be town. People who either don't vote, or who avoid major bandwagons, are more likely to be scum. So if you pick the "major bandwagon" of the day, town or scum, most of the people on it will be town, and town are probably more likely to join it then scum are.

It's especally dumb in this case; since there is a good reason Xtoxm was wagoned day 1 and Albert was wagoned day 2; they both blatenlty lied about their roles.

Premise 1: It is in scums' (Shinra, Turk, SKs) best interests to not lynch people in their own faction.
Premise 2: It is in the scums' (Shinra, Turk, SKs) best interests to lynch people in factions other their own.
Premise 3: The only faction that opposes all scums (Shinra, Turk, SKs) is town.
Conclusion 1: All scums (Shinra, Turk, SKs) have interests in lynching town.
Conclusion 2: The wagons/lynches of town is more likely to have all types of scum on it.
Conclusion 3: It is more likely that more scum players are on town wagons/lynches.
Conclusion 4: Each player on a town wagon/lynch is slightly more likely to be scum. (my original assumption #1)
Conclusion 5: Multiple instances of a player on a town wagon = (slightly more likely) multiplied = much more likely to be scum. (my original assumption #2)

So now in response to CarnCarn:
1. I'm focusing on town wagons.
2. Scum also take advantage of others' scummy actions. The actions of players being wagoned is independent of conclusions I listed above.
3. See #2.

In response to Yosarian2:

2nd paragraph: How do you know all wagoners are aggresive instead of, for instance, scum complacent with going along with a lynch? And if you say "People who either don't vote, or who avoid major bandwagons, are more likely to be scum", then how do you explain 3/4 confirmed scum being on major town wagons during both Days 1 and 2?

3rd paragraph: See my response #2 to CarnCarn.

[Yosarian2]

2nd paragraph: How do you know all wagoners are aggresive instead of, for instance, scum complacent with going along with a lynch?

Um, I didn't say "all" wagoners are agressive townies. I said it was more likely, that being on a big wagon like that is more a sign of being pro-town then a scum tell. Voting in general, and especally voting agressivly and in such a way that it actually puts pressure on people, is a town tell; you acting like it's a scum tell is completly backwards.

And if you want to make the case that I was "scum complacent going along with a lynch", then make that case. It's pretty clearly not true, though, so you'll have some trouble there.

And if you say "People who either don't vote, or who avoid major bandwagons, are more likely to be scum", then how do you explain 3/4 confirmed scum being on major town wagons during both Days 1 and 2?

Meh. Those are the kind of wagons anyone would want to join, town as well as scum; anyone who didn't think Xtoxm was scum day 1 probably wasn't paying attention. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if some scum who were on those wagons thought they WERE wagoning scum from the other team, those guys looked so scummy.

[iamausername]

I could continue making points about why Machiavellian's 'analysis' is bogus, because it ignores... basically everything that has happened in the game, but I think it's better to just say that it's a fact that he is scum. I was probably going to claim sometime today anyway, but with this silly wagon forming on me for a typo (although, admittedly, a thoroughly conspicuous one), this definitely seems to be the right time.

I'm Vincent Valentine. Being an ex-member of the Turks, I know how they operate, so I'm able to recognise them if I keep a close watch on them at night. I'm your Turk cop.

N1, I investigated Zac/Natirasha. He's not a Turk.
N2, annoyingly, I investigated Cludsy. Obviously, he's not a Turk either.
N3, I investigated Cavebear/Machiavellian. He IS a Turk.

So, yeah. Let's get on with it, shall we?

[Natirasha]

unvote, vote: Machiavellian

Let's go!

[CarnCarn]

Wow, that's interesting.

Unvote

Role and targets make sense. Vincent is a major character, right? That puts the massclaim suggestion in more perspective, too.
Unless someone counters, I'm willing to believe IAAUN's claim.
While I said it is preferable to kill Shinra or Sephiroth today, I think a guilty Turk lynch would be good, too. I will vote Cavebear if there is no counterclaim and if town thinks this is the best play today.
Now that the Turk-cop has claimed, I'm going to reconsider the massclaim idea and fathom if it's any more reasonable now.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Wow...I wish I had 3 votes right now. I never realized I could have one post that ends up nailing 3 scum:

IAAUN's claims are 100% guaranteed, completely false, because

I actually have that role

.

I am the real Vincent Valentine, a person who may not have had the nicest personality and history. Since I was formerly a Turk, I am essentially a Turk cop who can discover whether a target is Turk each night.

Cavebear/My night choices:
N1 - Wolf/Kscope, not Turk
N2 - Zac/Natirasha, not Turk
N3 - Yosarian2, TURK

1. So now you can see why I went after Yosarian2 immediately.

Yosarian2 = confirmed Turk scum #1

2. IAAUN is extremely likely (99%) to be Yos's Turk scumbuddy who saw me as a potential threat in nailing both Yos and himself, so IAAUN is taking a gambit to bring me down quickly before I do further damage on the Turk scumgroup. But his gambit BACKFIRED in a huge way since he claimed my exact role.

IAAUN = 99%-certain Turk scum #2

3. It is very interesting that both IAAUN's fakeclaim and my actual investigations have Natirasha as NOT TURK. It makes sense why IAAUN was fakeclaiming the other two investigations: Cludsy is dead and he wants me dead. But what motives could IAAUN have behind faking an investigation on a currently alive player? To clear his scumbuddy (85% sure)! And since I have a real result of Natirasha as not Turk, I'm pretty sure Natirasha is the Turk Godfather.

Then I took a look at possible connections between Yos and Natirasha, and found two cases of distancing:
Yos attacked Natirasha for a couple of posts early Day 2, then completely ignored Nat afterwards (Yos's posts 26 and 27)
Yos subtlely fake-voted Natirasha earlier today (Yos's Post 91)

Natirasha = 85%-certain Turk Godfather scum #3

So what are the implications of this?

1. The scumgroups, unfortunately, are probably 4 each instead of 3, with Godfathers.
2. Either Yos or IAAUN needs to be lynched today, and the other two needs to be vigged and/or killed by SK and/or killed by the Shinra tonight.

My vote on Yosarian2 stands and can be readily switched to IAAUN. Also

HUGE FOS: Natirasha

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

One more thing I forgot to mention:

Cavebear breadcrumbed his role(now my role) in Post 560:

I fully expect all the playable characters of the game to be town, even if their abilities might evidently not be exactly what you'd expect. (Barret was a watcher, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Red XIII as a roleblocker or

Vincent as a cop

or some equally random distribution.)

This may have been where IAAUN got his idea for fakeclaiming.

[Yosarian2]

Vote:Machiavellian-Mafia

Good, I was hoping we'd lynch a Turk scum today.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

How approapriate that all 3 of the remaining Turks are voting me right now.

[Yosarian2]

How approapriate that all 3 of the remaining Turks are voting me right now.

Look, we're going to lynch you, and you're going to come up Turk. That's inevitable now, you might as well use this time to your advantage. Have the Turks figured out who anyone in the alternate scum group is? Have you tried to kill anyone and failed, making them probably the SK? Help the town lynch the other scum who aren't in your group, you also increase your groups chances of wining here.

[CarnCarn]

Wow, this just gets more interesting. IAAUN's comment D2 about doing a read from iLord Turk's perspective rings a bit hollow to me now.
I'm trying to figure out who is telling the truth here. I'm confused why IAAUN would try to fakeclaim Vincent, unless it's a huge, huge town gambit that makes ABR's look pale by comparison. If he was Turk, there is no way he could have known who the real Vincent (Turk cop) is, right? The motive for IAAUN to lie isn't adding up to me (unless he saw his wagon and thought he was going to be lynched today, but that's not looking too likely). And if IAAUN is scum, then he had to have it planned to go after Cavebear from the start of the day. Maybe he thought he was an easy "lurker" target?
Now, Machiavellian-Mafia

does

have a reason to fakeclaim, because otherwise it looks like he would be lynched. But, his claim seems reasonable at the same time. The breadcrumbing is a strong point in his favor, though, I think.

And Yos2's comment above:

Vote:Machiavellian-Mafia

Good, I was hoping we'd lynch a Turk scum today.

Seems really out of place/not in line with anything he's said today. More credibility to M-M's claim.
And this would just be hilarious if Yos2 really is a Turk:

Might be being slightly pedantic but something really tugs at me about the fact that after 1600 posts so far, and a lot of use of the group name "Shinra" and it being in the night kill and lynch results... you're still spelling it oddly..

Uh...I tend to mis-spell names wrong a lot, especally stuff I don't type much. Are you seriously trying to claim that that's some kind of scum-tell?

Plus, this:

Look, we're going to lynch you, and you're going to come up Turk. That's inevitable now, you might as well use this time to your advantage. Have the Turks figured out who anyone in the alternate scum group is? Have you tried to kill anyone and failed, making them probably the SK? Help the town lynch the other scum who aren't in your group, you also increase your groups chances of wining here.

Would come from a Turk, too.

Vote: Yosarian2

[Zakeri]

N3, I investigated Cavebear/Machiavellian. He IS a Turk.

Okay, why in the world didn't you post this earlier today and instead, let Cavebear get replaced in the first place. Sure, maybe another investigation would be nice, but heck, I didn't think I'd get one after yesterday and I did.

Especially considering that you're so complacent to think that there are 4 scum roles. I don't know why you were pushing that? To emphasize we were likely in Lylo?

unvote, vote: Machiavellian Let's go!

Oh look, Natirasha voted for someone. M-M just got a whole load of townie points. And right after someone blantantly said he had a cop result that that person was scum? It's obvious from this that IAAUN is lying. Natirasha would never do something

that

pro-town.

Vote:Machiavellian-Mafia

Good, I was hoping we'd lynch a Turk scum today.

What? Did you seriously just blandwagon someone

this late

in the game with an omgus vote? Don't think you're getting away with with it because your supposed scum buddy fakeclaimed cop.

Look, we're going to lynch you, and you're going to come up Turk. That's inevitable now, you might as well use this time to your advantage. Have the Turks figured out who anyone in the alternate scum group is? Have you tried to kill anyone and failed, making them probably the SK? Help the town lynch the other scum who aren't in your group, you also increase your groups chances of wining here.

Ask yourself this, Yos2. Would a Townie really say this if he had to decide between competing cop claims?

Unfortunately, it does look like we do have 4 people per mafia team. I Believe it would be in Shinra's best interest to target IAAUN tonight, so that he wouldn't be able to give up any information against your group tomorrow.

Vote: Yosarian2