FFVII Mafia: Over

[Empking]

So don't yoiu have a screenshot?

[Natirasha]

He has, I checked.

Oh, k.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@ Empking: It was meant as a rhetorical question. Obviously I can't actually post a screenshot since it's essentially direct quoting from mod, which is against the rules.

[CarnCarn]

Phew, one final exam done! /off topic

Unvote: Yosarian2

Wow, not sure why I decided to vote Yos2. Probably all that cramming messing with my head. And there is no reason to be voting him now, anyway.

I'm really confused about the whole situation now. M-M saying the mod sent him new information about Yos2 vs. the point that Cavebear was likely inactive over the night break. I'm going to do what MBL suggested: go back and do a close re-read of the two before I make any decisions.

Yos2, what do you think of the new information? Does this make M-M less scummy in your view?

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, I just skimmed iamausername's post history. He looks like he has a little too much inside information on both Shinra and Turks all game. I think this is what's going on:

iamausername is

Shinra

, and a member of his team is capable of investigating to find Turks. Therefore, iamausername knows that Machiavellian-Mafia is a

Turk

because one of his teammates investigated Cavebear. He chose now to release this information now because M-M was demonstrating too much info on who the remaining Shinra were, and needed to shut M-M up and change the direction of the conversation today.

M-M, knowing he was caught, is pretending to be an investigator looking for Turks, but is actually is a

Turk

himself, and a member of his team is an investigator looking for Shinra. His team knows that Yosarian2 and iamausername are Shinra, and he is trying to take them down before he goes down himself.

It is possible that iamausername is a town-aligned cop. It's also possible that Zakeri is a town-aligned cop, but it's also possible that Zakeri is a Turk whose teammates know who some Shinra are.

Time to read more carefully. I think I am mostly right on this, but I'm not positive yet.

[CarnCarn]

A couple notable things from a read-through of Cavebear with a toothache:

Cavebear/Machiavellian-Mafia: Possible Turk cop?

This D1 post questioning xtoxm and ABR about their role mechanics may be him trying to figure out if they are lying (post 2):

It's interesting to me that the cop claims don't actually contradict each other: Having two scum groups (Shinra Inc and Sephiroth clones/Cult of Jenova/whatever you want to call them) doesn't sound all that unlikely to me (it's a large game after all), and if so, separate cops works. If so, I'd expect them to work in about the same way, from a purely mechanical point of view. So before we lynch anyone, I'd very much like these questions answered, first by Xtoxm and then Albert B. Rampage:
- Both of you: When can you send in the target of your investigation, and when do you get the result?
- Does it, anywhere in your roles, explicitly state that you detect scum and/or that you are cops?
- Are there any other restrictions or defining features that can help distinguish your role from "normal" cops and/or someone faking? Not counting formatting or anything else you shouldn't be quoting.
- ABR: I'm a bit confused by your claim. Do you detect raised levels of Mako energy or Jenova cells? From what I remember/could find on FFVII, Jenova cells and Mako, this isn't the same thing (from what I understand, everyone with Jenova cells would have higher Mako rates, but higher Mako rates doesn't imply Jenova cells.)

And moreover (post 3):

So, cavebear, do you believe xtoxm?

Ask me again when he and ABR has answered my questions.

Looks like he is trying to confirm one of them as the real cop.

But is this contradicted by his post 5?:

Hmm. Xtoxm's behaviour has been erratic to say the least (claiming day cop with instant investigation and a guilty on your wagon in a pressured situation really sounds bad) but, since ABR apparently has almost the same role, seems believable to me. The odds of hitting scum on your own wagon like that is probably pretty low, esp. if there are two scum groups and you can only find one, but what are the odds that he's faking a day cop role that targets different baddies than the other day cop but have a similar pm and the same instant investigation? If he just got that out of thin air, I'll be very impressed indeed. As for Bugenhagen being cop, a) I'd pretty much expect him to have some sort of information role (or maybe being an inventor or something), b) it's really no weirder IMO than Cid being one. I'd expect Bugenhagen to be in the game as well.

All that being said:

Vote: armlx.

ABR: Since this is based on you not faking your claim, I'd very much like to know if you ARE faking your claim after all in some misguided attempt to get Xtoxm lynched. Just saying.

Possibly. But, even if he was the real Turk cop, he would be confused that both players claimed to have the same role mechanics. He also bases his analysis on the assumption that ABR is not fake-claiming, as a way to get around everything.
I'm not sure whether the Turk cop/Shinra cop would be scum themselves or town. Gut says they would be town, especially if scum have large (4+) groups.
Cavebear's posts are reading somewhat protown to me. Can't find anything really scummy in my reading of them.

[CarnCarn]

iamausername is

Shinra

, and a member of his team is capable of investigating to find Turks.

What do you think of IAAUN being so early on the CML wagon, then? He basically started that wagon, although he did hop off for a bit.

[christiano drago]

Wow.

OK, so MM's first post disregards both that there are multiple scumgroups and that SKs are not mafia. And disregarding the CML wagon in a voting analysis is just stupid because it's pretty much the best wagon information-wise that we've had. And the entire concept of the post is crap, since as Yos said, aggressive players actually tend to be town.

On to the important part. First off, it's a pretty interesting "coincidence" that MM claimed the exact same character, flavor and role as the guy who just investigated him guilty... even that is enough for me to say that anyone who believes MM just bad.

MM says that IAAUN s only 99% scum, also, even though they have claimed th same character... why not 100%?

3. It is very interesting that both IAAUN's fakeclaim and my actual investigations have Natirasha as NOT TURK. It makes sense why IAAUN was fakeclaiming the other two investigations: Cludsy is dead and he wants me dead. But what motives could IAAUN have behind faking an investigation on a currently alive player? To clear his scumbuddy (85% sure)! And since I have a real result of Natirasha as not Turk, I'm pretty sure Natirasha is the Turk Godfather.

This is absolutely retarded. Even if IAAUN was a Turk, it's not that likely that he would fake-investigate his scumbuddy. And then your leap of logic to assume that Nat is a Godfather since it's all he can be if he's a Turk... wow. I mean really... we've had plenty of oppurtunities to see a Shinra Godfather and have no evidence that either scumgroup has one. I think MM is just trying to spread paranoia that there may be GFs. And MM's "case" on Nat, that's enough to make him 85% sure, is two instances of distancing, plus the fact that he's investigated Nat as not Turk which makes it

less

likely, um, hello. There's also the assumption here that each mafia had 4 members to begin with which we've already decided is fairly unlikely.

The odds that IAAUNscum happened to accuse the actual Turkcop, who is actually Vincent and has the exact same flavor he claimed, are incredibly low.

CarnCarn's post seems to start off as a post that will end in voting MM and then he randomly doesn't... did you accidentally vote the wrong person?

Oh look, Natirasha voted for someone. M-M just got a whole load of townie points. And right after someone blantantly said he had a cop result that that person was scum? It's obvious from this that IAAUN is lying. Natirasha would never do something that pro-town.

This logic makes me cry.

What? Did you seriously just blandwagon someone this late in the game with an omgus vote? Don't think you're getting away with with it because your supposed scum buddy fakeclaimed cop.

It's not OMGUS... if Yos2 is actually town then he knows for certain that MM is scum.

Ask yourself this, Yos2. Would a Townie really say this if he had to decide between competing cop claims?

Yeah, if said townie was the one who the cop had a fake guilty on.

Unfortunately, it does look like we do have 4 people per mafia team.

Um... where did you get that?

Maybe he planned to lay low anyways so as to not draw nightkills. Maybe he submitted a choice early since he's anticipating that he will disappear. Maybe the mod randomized a choice.

The timing of Cavebear's replacement is just another nail in the coffin, and MM's defense to it is really awful. The first excuse doesn't explain the disappearance, if the second was true he would have said something, and even if it was arbitrarily randomized, the chances that the chosen player would be the guy who was arguably the most widely suspected to be a Turk are pretty low.

And then he uses the rest of that post to try to distract from the flimsy excuse by pointing out more ways in which his suspects can be scum. His sureness that Nat is a Turk is ridiculous.

And plus, IAAUN was pretty lainly trying to get Cavebear lynched without claiming today, even though Cavebear was obviously not the scummiest player alive.

As for massclaim, we may as well lynch the obvscum first.

Unvote, Vote MM

FOS: CarCarn

We have conjoining claims and you want to lynch one rather than mass claim?

Chances are that outr power roles are all out in the open air now, the fake claims have all been easy to disprove so far thanks to them barely fitting with the story.

With the turk cop out in the open, mass claiming is the order of the day we have six results to check the claims against, and it will give us an excellent chance of working out exactly who we need to kill.
IAUN's flavour description seems more realistic, but I still don't fully trust either claim. Cavebear lurked too much for my liking, and I'm not sure the mechanics of the randomised investigation or submitting an early investigation really fit either.

I don't want to leap to conclusions here, but is a god father less game common at MS? Because if they're not [and since both groups had respective leaders in the game] it's more raised eyebrows in the direction of Carn Carn for trying to make us think like there aren't any godfathers.

[christiano drago]

bah...

I've called you Carn Carn for that entire post, sorry Cephrir. Just in from football and clearly too tired to take stock of what I meant to say lol.

[CarnCarn]

I don't want to leap to conclusions here, but is a god father less game common at MS? Because if they're not [and since both groups had respective leaders in the game] it's more raised eyebrows in the direction of Carn Carn for trying to make us think like there aren't any godfathers.

cd, what are you talking about? I've mentioned godfathers before any of this Turk cop stuff.

With the turk cop out in the open, mass claiming is the order of the day we have six results to check the claims against, and it will give us an excellent chance of working out exactly who we need to kill.

The list seems narrow enough: IAAUN or Machiavellian-Mafia. Not sure how massclaiming will narrow it down even more.

[christiano drago]

Meant Cephrir, sorry.

[Zakeri]

Cop results are not randomized.

I also find it very unlikely that Cavebear would send in results before his replacement without at least asking for one by the time he disappears. The First excuse M-M Brings up isn't even usable since it requires that Cavebear came back on, contacted Elias, and then chose to not post on the forums anymore either during that time or when the day started again.

Vote: Machiavellian-Mafia

However, I hate how everyone made fun of me. It only made too much sense at the time. The only glaring fault in M-M's claim is that he shouldn't have a night 3 results in the first place, and now with his recent backtracking it seems even more suspicious - it looks like it was because he was expecting IAAUN and Yos2 to turn up Shinra.

[Yosarian2]

Yos2, what do you think of the new information? Does this make M-M less scummy in your view?

Hmm. Well, claiming "the mod corrected me here, Yos is town" or whatever is an odd move, and I'm not sure why he would do that as scum; and of course it does get rid of the reason I was 100% sure he was scum. Still, if one of (Iamusername and MM) are lying, then I still think it's more likely that it's MM; I don't understand how a scum Iamusername could have claimed MM's exact rolename and role, unless it's just an unlikely coincidence or he's some kind of scum rolecop; and if he's a scum rolecop, then he'd probably claim guilty on someone who actually was guilty but on the other team.

It's possible they're both lying, as MBL is suggesting, and it's possible Iamusername is telling the truth and MM counterclaimed in a desperate attempt to survive the "cop found a guilty on him" situation. I don't think it's that likely MM is telling the truth here, though.

By the way, could you explain in a little more detail exactally why you jumped to believe MM and follow his claimed guilty on me, even though his whole "I have the exact same rolename as the guy who just claimed a guilty on me" defense seems pretty improbable? This question also applies to

Zakeri

and to

MrBuddyLee

. I really think we need all three of you to explain, in some detail, exactally why you rushed to believe him in that situation, and all three of you need to do so now, before we end the day; because if MM does come up scum, as seems likely, I'm going to be looking at the three of you tommorow when looking for his scumbuddies.

[Jebus]

Cavebear's last post on site is dated Monday, November 17th.

Night 3 began on Sunday, November 23rd.

So apparently, almost an entire week after apparently dissapearing for good, Cavebear logged on just long enough to send in an investigation. Interesting.

This is the only part of the argument that I'm conceding, but it's a damn good one none-the-less.

+1

And this is what tips me over the fence.

As far as I know, from my modding experience, unless I say otherwise, night abilities that someone forgets to send to me don't happen.

unvote: IAUN
Vote: MM

[Jebus]

And as MBL said, I'm also iffy on Yos2 (and needless to say, MM), their posts wreak of "oshi* I'm screwed"

[Yosarian2]

And as MBL said, I'm also iffy on Yos2 (and needless to say, MM), their posts wreak of "oshi* I'm screwed"

What the hell? How do you get that from me saying "oh, good, I wanted to lynch a turk", when someone claims "MM is a turk" followed by MM lying about a cop investigation on me? "Desperation"? Seriously?

[Zakeri]

And as MBL said, I'm also iffy on Yos2 (and needless to say, MM), their posts wreak of "oshi* I'm screwed"

What the hell? How do you get that from me saying "oh, good, I wanted to lynch a turk", when someone claims "MM is a turk" followed by MM lying about a cop investigation on me? "Desperation"? Seriously?

What I would like to know is why everyone is suppose to assume that your reaction was a normal town reaction when Scum is more likely to say it, if that even play a part in the whole deal.

Your reaction to M-M's original guilty investigation on you being scum was "You're Lying, DiaF!" A reaction typical of Scum when caught by the cop claim. Yes, I concede that there are townie reasons behind why you said the things you did, and why you're much more inclinded to believe that IAAUN is telling the truth, but denying that scum would do the exact same thing in the exact same situation only makes you look more panicked about being caught.

By the way, could you explain in a little more detail exactally why you jumped to believe MM and follow his claimed guilty on me, even though his whole "I have the exact same rolename as the guy who just claimed a guilty on me" defense seems pretty improbable?

The thing is that it doesn't seem improbable in this given scenario. For the (hypothetical) IAAUN = Scum and M-M = Town situation, that would mean that IAAUN would have discussed with his scum buddies a perfectly good out as the Turk cop. It's not hard to imagine that anyone who was FFVII savy enough would know that Vincent was most likely the Turk Cop due to his previous connections with them.

Given this, and the fact that Cavebear appears to have breadcrumbed the Vincent Cop idea on day one helped build M-M's case. He's pulled this off a lot better than you give him credit for, since the only thing making me doubt his claim was that he couldn't have gotten night 3 results unless he had a scum buddy who was the Turk Cop.

[CarnCarn]

By the way, could you explain in a little more detail exactally why you jumped to believe MM and follow his claimed guilty on me, even though his whole "I have the exact same rolename as the guy who just claimed a guilty on me" defense seems pretty improbable? This question also applies to Zakeri and to MrBuddyLee. I really think we need all three of you to explain, in some detail, exactally why you rushed to believe him in that situation, and all three of you need to do so now, before we end the day; because if MM does come up scum, as seems likely, I'm going to be looking at the three of you tommorow when looking for his scumbuddies.

Well, I guess it's worth revealing this now (read everything in full please):

I investigated Cavebear N2 and his alignment was revealed to me as "town."

Yes, I lied about being roleblocked to IAAUN and my "suspicions" of Cavebear D3 were an attempt to keep him from getting scum NK'd. It seems to have worked. There was no reason for me to disclose this result at the start of D3. I hope you can see that.
When IAAUN started today by attacking Cavebear, I thought nothing of it, just let it slide. I would have claimed the result if he was in any danger, but he wasn't.
After IAAUN claimed Turk cop, you'll notice that I was puzzled, perhaps thinking my result was my character being nieve, but I didn't vote, and I was very specific about waiting for a counterclaim.
When M-M countered, my result made sense again, but I truly couldn't figure out why IAAUN would make such a brash claim to get a lurker lynched. Something still seemed out of place, but I decided to go with what my investigation told me, and went with the result of M-M (which was that you were a Turk).
I'm still puzzled as hell about my sanity given how ridiculous IAAUN would be to fakeclaim here just to get one mislynch. But the other part of me wants to think my investigation is accurate, too. I'm still debating what is the correct play here, but I'm leaning towards lynching IAAUN at the moment (if only because, in the 50/50 situation, I could find out if my sanity is sane or not). Cavebear/M-M's claim seems OK because of a lot of breadcrumbing.

[Yosarian2]

What I would like to know is why everyone is suppose to assume that your reaction was a normal town reaction when Scum is more likely to say it, if that even play a part in the whole deal.

Your reaction to M-M's original guilty investigation on you being scum was "You're Lying, DiaF!"

Um, no, it wasn't. My reaction to him claiming cop, and lying about an investigative result, in response to someone else claiming a guilty on him, was to assume he was lying scum, yes. Which is exactally the way any pro-town person would react. I didn't say "You're lying, DiaF!" I also didn't

denying that scum would do the exact same thing in the exact same situation only makes you look more panicked about being caught.

Why are you just making stuff up now, Zakeri? I didn't say anything like that.

Sure, scum may have reacted in the same way I did. But that's irrelevent, since any townie in my position would have reacted the same way. And it's a distraction from the main point.

By the way, could you explain in a little more detail exactally why you jumped to believe MM and follow his claimed guilty on me, even though his whole "I have the exact same rolename as the guy who just claimed a guilty on me" defense seems pretty improbable?

The thing is that it doesn't seem improbable in this given scenario. For the (hypothetical) IAAUN = Scum and M-M = Town situation, that would mean that IAAUN would have discussed with his scum buddies a perfectly good out as the Turk cop. It's not hard to imagine that anyone who was FFVII savy enough would know that Vincent was most likely the Turk Cop due to his previous connections with them.

If you say so...I played FFVII, but it was a long time ago, and I don't really remember who Vincent was.

Given this, and the fact that Cavebear appears to have breadcrumbed the Vincent Cop idea on day one helped build M-M's case. He's pulled this off a lot better than you give him credit for, since the only thing making me doubt his claim was that he couldn't have gotten night 3 results unless he had a scum buddy who was the Turk Cop.

Cavebear did say the name "Vincent", that's true...

I just don't get how a hypothetical Iamusername scum would be able to do what you're suggesting he did, which is claim vincent and claim a guitly on the guy who really was vincent, or why he would want to. Unless you think it was just a bizzare coincidence, or unless they're both scum and Iamusername is a scum cop in a different scum group.

Also, I will mention that if Iamusername is a anti-Turk scumcop, and he is Shinara, then that really would increase the odds that you yourself are a anti-Shinara scum cop who is Turk; between that, and your possible connection with MM here, you look pretty bad if MBL's scenerio is correct and both Iamusername and MM are scum.

[Yosarian2]

Well, I guess it's worth revealing this now (read everything in full please):

I investigated Cavebear N2 and his alignment was revealed to me as "town."

Yes, I lied about being roleblocked to IAAUN and my "suspicions" of Cavebear D3 were an attempt to keep him from getting scum NK'd. It seems to have worked. There was no reason for me to disclose this result at the start of D3. I hope you can see that.
When IAAUN started today by attacking Cavebear, I thought nothing of it, just let it slide. I would have claimed the result if he was in any danger, but he wasn't.
After IAAUN claimed Turk cop, you'll notice that I was puzzled, perhaps thinking my result was my character being nieve, but I didn't vote, and I was very specific about waiting for a counterclaim.
When M-M countered, my result made sense again, but I truly couldn't figure out why IAAUN would make such a brash claim to get a lurker lynched. Something still seemed out of place, but I decided to go with what my investigation told me, and went with the result of M-M (which was that you were a Turk).
I'm still puzzled as hell about my sanity given how ridiculous IAAUN would be to fakeclaim here just to get one mislynch. But the other part of me wants to think my investigation is accurate, too. I'm still debating what is the correct play here, but I'm leaning towards lynching IAAUN at the moment (if only because, in the 50/50 situation, I could find out if my sanity is sane or not). Cavebear/M-M's claim seems OK because of a lot of breadcrumbing.

Um...wow. Ok, now I'm totally confused.

Unvote:MM

for now.

[Yosarian2]

So, to summerise:

We now have 4 (!) claimed cops. (Not to mention the dead SK cop...) At least 1 is lying, since 2 claimed the same rolename.

Iamusername claimed he had a guilty on MM.

In response, MM claimed he has the exact same rolename as Iamusername, and that he had a guilty on me.

Then, he said he got a second PM from the mod telling him that he actually had an innocent on me.

Finally, Carn claimed cop (I guess generic cop?), and is claiming he got an innocent on MM. (Also, Carn is the only one who didn't claim a rolename; this is just an observation, I don't really see a need for Carn to claim a rolename now if he dosn't want to.)

Ok:
I believe Carn. Him fake claiming now would be, well, I can't imagine anyone doing it. He might be nieve, though.

So, if MM is town, then that means:

Iammusername is lying scum

Non-Turks are Zac, Yosarian2, kscope are all non-turk.

In this scenerio, we probably want Carn to claim the rest of his results today, and want to lynch Iamusername today; we should then have enough information to at least quickly figure out who the rest of the Turks are, and I like our odds in general of finding out everything we need to know.

That being said, with this many cops, a nieve cop is possible. Also, there are still some problems with the scenerio above:

1. I'm not understand what Iamusername's motivations would be here for pulling a claim like that out of nowhere
2. The whole timing of the claims of MM and Iamusername are just bizzare, and seem like, well, an odd coincidence at best
3. The whole thing with him first claiming he had a guilty on me, and then the mod correcting him...well, it's possible, but it's weird, to say the least.

So, yeah...overall, I'm pretty confused about what is going on here. I'm leaning more towards lynching Iamusername now, I guess, but I'm pretty torn.

[CarnCarn]

Finally, Carn claimed cop (I guess generic cop?), and is claiming he got an innocent on MM. (Also, Carn is the only one who didn't claim a rolename; this is just an observation, I don't really see a need for Carn to claim a rolename now if he dosn't want to.)

I've claimed already. I am Cait Sith, Jack of All Trades role. My N1 action was vig kill ABR (didn't go through for some reason), N2 was investigate Cavebear with a toothache (got "town"), N3 was roleblock wolframnhart/KScope (assuming this went through, he is not the SK).

[MrBuddyLee]

Let's lynch Yosarian2. He obviously hasn't been paying attention to the game and evaluating people's scumminess if he thinks Carn is claiming "cop" all the sudden.

unvote, vote: Yosarian2

It might be a wiser play to lynch one of the Vince Valentines today, but then again, I have a feeling they'll take care of each other overnight.

[Cephrir]

We have conjoining claims and you want to lynch one rather than mass claim?

At the time, yeah, because MM looked like painfully obvious scum.

Chances are that outr power roles are all out in the open air now,

We haven't seen Aeris or Tifa yet. Although I suspect at least one of them is a safeclaim.

MM's claiming that he was wrong about his results or whatever is interesting to say the least. Generally I don't think scum would do that, but that's what hs wants me to think, etc.

I investigated Cavebear N2 and his alignment was revealed to me as "town." Yes, I lied about being roleblocked to IAAUN and my "suspicions" of Cavebear D3 were an attempt to keep him from getting scum NK'd. It seems to have worked. There was no reason for me to disclose this result at the start of D3. I hope you can see that.

Hum. That's a lot of planning. I believe you though. It certainly explains why you believed MM.

Yos: Carn claimed Cait Sith about a million years ago, he performs a random action. The fact that he has a JoaT-ish role makes me more inclined to think he'd be sane.

In my mind, there are 3 possibilites: IAAUN is scum, MM and Carn are both scum, or MM is a Godfather. I think we can pretty much eliminate the second possibility, and if it turns out to be true then I'm OK with that. IAAUN being scum is definitely more believable, but in order for that to be the case he'd have to have guessed Vincent's role and flavor almost word-for-word. Eh, it's possible.

Unvote

At this point I'm unsure enough to not want to lynch either Vincent.

[Zakeri]

Um, no, it wasn't. My reaction to him claiming cop, and lying about an investigative result, in response to someone else claiming a guilty on him, was to assume he was lying scum, yes. Which is exactally the way any pro-town person would react. I didn't say "You're lying, DiaF!" I also didn't

Yes, you did say "you're lying, DiaF!" You specifically said something along the lines of "Glad we're lynching a turk today" and voted for him.

Why are you just making stuff up now, Zakeri? I didn't say anything like that.

Sure, scum may have reacted in the same way I did. But that's irrelevent, since any townie in my position would have reacted the same way. And it's a distraction from the main point.

You seemed generally unwilling to believe that anyone could think you are scum for doing something that usually scummy is what my point was. You're argument against my last post was on semantics at best, so I feel we should drop this.

---

Moving on:

Finally, Carn claimed cop (I guess generic cop?), and is claiming he got an innocent on MM. (Also, Carn is the only one who didn't claim a rolename; this is just an observation, I don't really see a need for Carn to claim a rolename now if he dosn't want to.)

If you've been paying attention, CarnCarn's been an outed role since day 2. His claim is Cait Sith; Jack of all trades (Random Blocker/Protecter/Investigator/Vigilante). Since his investigation only happens 1/4 of the time, and out of his control it's no stretch to believe he's both Sane and all encompassing with the slight possibility of Godfathers. This leads me into believing two Scenerios are possible at this rate.

Cavebear is the Turk Godfather, and M-M Made up results in a reply to IAAUN getting guilty on him (Which would somehow mean that IAAUN can bypass godfathership)

Cavebear is Vincent, and IAAUN planned out his fakeclaim as Vincent and the investigations he got so as to get a townie lynched.

This is of course ignoring the possibility of another Xtomx, in which case town has by far already lost the game. I don't think either IAAUN or M-M would do that.

I'm still puzzled as hell about my sanity given how ridiculous IAAUN would be to fakeclaim here just to get one mislynch. But the other part of me wants to think my investigation is accurate, too. I'm still debating what is the correct play here, but I'm leaning towards lynching IAAUN at the moment (if only because, in the 50/50 situation, I could find out if my sanity is sane or not). Cavebear/M-M's claim seems OK because of a lot of breadcrumbing.

There are many possible Reasons why IAAUN would fakeclaim. Maybe because he knew Cavebear was Vincent the Turk Cop as per his actions and breadcrumbs and tried to outclaim him. Remember, if IAAUN is a Turk, then we should oppoerate under the assumption that the town is in Lylo right now (4 in a starting scum group = 3 turks left, 2 shinra left, and one SK meaning 6 out of 13 people are scum) and by removing another townie via lynch only helps secure the Turk's win since the Shinra and SK will be the only ones that could overpower them anymore.

There's also an alternate theory that I would hate to throw in right now, but I just might have to. CarnCarn could be lying about his investigation to save M-M from being lynched. I doubt this is true, but it would fit in with his choice for safeclaim and role (as Reeves, of course) Making M-M Shinra in this case.

Overall, I'm much more inclined to believe that CarnCarn is telling the truth, and therefore so was M-M (which would also mean his backtrack makes perfect sense in conjuntion with Yos2's actions.)