Medieval Mafia - Game Over

[Slicey]

Day vig - scot
lynch - stark (what a surprise, he's disappeared again)
Night vig - If scot turns up scum, sam or farside. If scot turns up town, Kore.

The thing is, as long as we kill either scot or Kore today, I won't have to waste my investigation on the other one. I'll use my investigation on either farside or sam.

DGB, you don't seem to understand that I am not going to scan Kore tonight. >_>

[Tarhalindur]

WE NEED TO DO A MASSCLAIM. NAO.

After looking it over, I am inclined to agree here. We've already outed enough roles, and I want to know if we have anything else I need to know about when calculating the possibility of a town auto-win.

Funny thing is, you forgot to tell us your role, so we'll start with you. Claim, please.

[Tarhalindur]

I have a nice big post laying out a probable town autowin, but I want to finish the massclaim before I post it. No point giving scum information for making falseclaims.

Poptajo claims first, then I do, then we'll let DGB and camn work out the order they claim in. Savvy?

[camn]

@ Slicey:

What exactly would be the point of you scanning anyone other than Kore or Scot?

@ Tar .. are we calling for full claims? or just name-claims? Cuz I don't remember Kore fullclaiming.

[Slicey]

@ Slicey:

What exactly would be the point of you scanning anyone other than Kore or Scot?

@ Tar .. are we calling for full claims? or just name-claims? Cuz I don't remember Kore fullclaiming.

So we can find our day killing SK. Or to see if someone (most likely farside or sam) are lying.

[camn]

How would you find a SK by name alone?

And why would anyone lie, given that all have known about you forever?

[Tarhalindur]

@ Slicey:

What exactly would be the point of you scanning anyone other than Kore or Scot?

@ Tar .. are we calling for full claims? or just name-claims? Cuz I don't remember Kore fullclaiming.

Full claim from poptajo at least - I want to know why he said he knew who scotmany was (or at least make it public - I could already know what he is and be asking for last night's results). I leave the WIFOM to non-mason, non-populartajo players. Poptajo, I request that you NOT reveal whether you are a Mason.

I'm thinking that there's too few players left unclaimed for Robin Hood to hide in to protect him/her for much longer - and since we suspect Robin Hood has exactly one kill remaining, there's little point in keeping him alive.

I already discussed this possibility with the other Masons last night. I'm not sure if I want to out the other Masons just yet... we might convince the Mafia to ram their kill into the semi-confirmed.

As to Korejora's fullclaim, I thought that this was the fullclaim:

I am Saint Thomas Aquinas, philosopher and priest of the Roman Catholic Church. Simply a town vanilla.

No,

I

am

Spartacus

Aquinas!

... Seriously, though. That's my role.

I thought that she claimed that scotmany claimed her exact role - down to her abilities (or lack thereof).

Korejora, if you have a role other than vanilla townie, now would be a good time to say so.

[Slicey]

How would you find a SK by name alone?

And why would anyone lie, given that all have known about you forever?

Nobody has claimed Robin Hood or anyone that uses arrows. Somebody is lying about their role. I personally think it's stark. And someone might lie in hopes I won't live long enough to out them.

[populartajo]

Paraphrasing.
I am Temüjin (1162 - 1227), aka Genghis Khan, the man who united the Mongol tribes of Asia.
Vanilla.

[Korejora]

Scot - Stark - Sam.

To be perfectly clear, I'm Thomas Aquinas, vanilla.

Why would the daykiller have only one kill left, if I'm allowed to ask? I thought those came in either one-shot or infinite.

[populartajo]

Am I the only one seeing that one of Scot and Kore should be scum?
Dayvig: Scot
Lynch: Kore
These last values are interchangeable.
Mason target: Evaluate results and shoot stark or farside. GG.

[populartajo]

Votecount plz.

[Slicey]

Am I the only one seeing that one of Scot and Kore should be scum?
Dayvig: Scot
Lynch: Kore
These last values are interchangeable.
Mason target: Evaluate results and shoot stark or farside. GG.

I said that before I think tajo. >_>

[Tarhalindur]

Time to drop this post:

I'm The Venerable Bede, vanilla town.

DGB appears to have claimed Vote Doubler. I'm not sure on her rolename.

Camn, of course, is Robin Hood. I've been fairly blatantly claiming that information since the beginning of the day (seriously, saying camn is either town or maybe SK should have tipped you off RIGHT THEN that I knew she was dayvig).

Note that there may be a town player who lied about their abilities. If there was a Role Cop amongst the Masons, I would have directed them to claim Vanilla today to attempt to preserve that role's utility. Alternately, camn could be another Mason.

I love playing WIFOM games when I know I know more than the Mafia does. Let's see if I can WIFOM the Mafia out of another Mason kill this way.

Now, the logic that should create a town autowin:

Assume 3 all-but-confirmed Masons and 7 nonmasons. Also assume that Mafia doesn't have a bonus kill or another means of stopping a Mason kill (riskiest assumption here, but if they had either I'm surprised they didn't use it last night... unless they knew we were killing Yos2, and that would mean that there was a Masonscum bussing the hell out of two scumbags yesterday, which seems unlikely).

Worst case scenario (assumes we can't clear any nonMason town - for this scenario to even come to pass, Robin Hood must be a Mason):

D3: 7 nonmason alive, 3 Mason alive
- Robin Hood kills a nonmason
- Town lynches a nonmason
N3: 5 nonmason alive, 3 Mason alive
- Masons kill a nonmason
- Mafia kills a Mason
D4: 4 nonmason alive, 2 Mason alive
- Town lynches a nonmason
N4: 3 nonmason alive, 2 Mason alive
- Masons kill a nonmason
- Mafia kills a Mason
D5: 2 nonmason alive, 1 Mason alive
- Town lynches a mason
N5: 1 nonmason alive, 1 Mason alive
- Mason and last Mafia crosskill, game ends in draw

There are a few ways this loses:
- Mafioso in the masons (highly unlikely, as Robin Hood is alive and Xyl is dead)
- Robin Hood is an SK (extremely unlikely given numbers)
- Robin Hood is a Mafioso (extremely unlikely given zwetschenwasser and Kmd shots)
- There are 3 Mafiosos alive and all of them survive to Day 4 (unlikely given game numbers)
- There are 3 Mafiosos alive and 2 of them survive to Day 5 (again unlikely given game numbers)
- There are 2 Mafiosos alive and all of them survive to Day 5

Now, keep in mind that there is at least one townie outside the Masons that I consider largely confirmed. Whether this is due to being Robin Hood or something else, I will leave you guys to WIFOM over.

The only way Mafia wins is if we have extremely bad luck when killing unconfirmed players AND the nonmason I consider largely clear is in fact a Mafioso - the only difference between 2 and 3 Mafia is how soon bad luck can lose us the game (we lose 2 additional kills to hit scum if there are 3 scum).

I doubt the three scum scenario, however, due to game balance sense. Let's assume the most powerful town possible given roles and claims:

18 players at game start (normal balancing says 4 scum + SK or 4 scum with strong power, with latter somewhat more balanced).

- 2x Martyr/Bodyguard
- 1x partially bulletproof Town
- 1x Masonvig maker
- 1x Vote Doubler
- 1x 3-shot dayvig
- 1x role name cop (w/scummy Mafia rolenames)
- 1x framer-immune? town
- 5x or 6x vanilla town

Revealed Mafia roles:
- 1x bulletproof
- 1x roleblocker

Even given this strongest possible Town, I'd lean towards there being 2 remaining Mafia with either one or two abilities remaining (likely just framer) given this level of power (especially with 2 known strong Mafia power roles - bulletproof and kill-immune). Overall, I'd say the most likely possibilities for the surviving Mafia are:
- 1x Mafia Role Name Cop (read: Slicey is scum), 1x Mafia Goon
- 1x Mafia Framer, 1x Mafia Goon
- 1x Mafia Godfather (with good role name or the same kind of Godfather ability I put on Chairman Mao in Mind Screw 1), 1x Mafia Goon
- 1x Mafia Godfather (same as above), 1x Mafia Framer

Keep in mind here that we may know that a fourth player is Town. We just don't want to claim that knowledge yet. Isn't WIFOM wonderful?

Now, unless somebody (say, a Mason) sees a problem with my logic, we have here an autowin. I'm not sure when the Masons should claim except that the other two should claim soon (either today or tomorrow - I'm not sure whether playing around a possible Mafioso with bonus kill is worthwhile).

[DrippingGoofball]

WHY KILL SCOT BEFORE KOREJORA???????

Korejora's claim followed scot's. If one of these players is pulling a gambit, it HAS to be Korejora.

I WANT FULL EXPLANATIONS FROM EVERY DUMMY THAT'S PROPOSING WE KILL SCOT FIRST. THANKS AHEAD. You know who you are.

[Tarhalindur]

WHY KILL SCOT BEFORE KOREJORA???????

Korejora's claim followed scot's. If one of these players is pulling a gambit, it HAS to be Korejora.

I WANT FULL EXPLANATIONS FROM EVERY DUMMY THAT'S PROPOSING WE KILL SCOT FIRST. THANKS AHEAD. You know who you are.

1) DGB, take a look at my earlier post. I explained why, from where I'm sitting, even the scum gambit you describe doesn't make much sense (unless there are 3 surviving Mafia AND one of those Mafiosos is a player I consider townier than most, and - given known roles and the fact that this is an 18 player game - balance strongly suggests there are only 2 Mafia remaining).

I'm not seeing WHY scum would counterclaim scotmany if scotmany is town - the numbers don't make sense (if it's an attempt to falseclear, it fails because we're not going to consider any of them clear; if it's a suicide run, it seems half-baked). The one Korejora gambit that I see that makes sense - Setesh Gambit - REQUIRES that scotmany be scum.

2) I don't consider it nearly so implausible as you do that scotmany is nongambiting scum who got really unlucky on a falseclaim. Look at Stargate SG-1: I gambled that Bill Lee wouldn't be in the game, and used that name for a Setesh Gambit. I gambled wrong (though it only took me out because I killed incorrectly). Sure, it's low probability, and it's a bad falseclaim if scotmany is non-gambiting scum, but it's possible.

3) I want BOTH of them dead by the end of Night 3. As far as I can tell, the scotmany kill provides somewhat more information (if he's town, Korejora and Slicey are pretty damn scum).

[camn]

So it seems that Tar picks up even the tiniest of breadcrumbs.

It is true.. I am the Dayvig.
My rolename is NOT robin Hood, though.. I am Hereward the Wake.
This figure is indeed the model for the Robin Hood legends.
He also is mentioned in the song "Let there be More Light", the first Pink Floyd song to feature Gilmour on lead. Thus my post #11 breadcrumb.

Regarding my Post #292 breadcrumb....All you Biblical scholars know that, in the 1st book of Samuel it states:
"And I will shoot three arrows on the side thereof, as though I shot at a mark".
Thank you OGML for actually using

arrows

in the flavor. That was nice.

I have 3 arrows.
I vigged Zwet, because he was distracting us from hunting.
I vigged KMD, because I knew he was scum. I think I was pretty clear in taking credit for it.

I plan on Vigging Scot now, to clear up this counterclaim business... if no one has any objections.

Any questions?

Oh, and:

seriously, stark? Is you dying in the best interest of the town?

Hunt now, please.

After I am informed as to why you are not scum.

How about now, then?

[Slicey]

Huh, well my theory was 100% wrong. >_>

[OhGodMyLife]

Vote Count:

6 to lynch

stark: 2 (farside22, Slicey)
Korejora: 1 (stark)
farside22: 1 (scotmany12)

Not Voting: 6 (DrippingGoofball, Korejora, camn, sam.samhorn, Tarhalindur, populartajo)

[scotmany12]

I object

[camn]

Convince me of a better way to settle the issue?

[camn]

PS, Tar.. I couldn't agree more with your logic.

The odds of us missing scum with our 3 kills/lynches today/tonight AND missing 2 times tomorrow day/night........

Zero point Zero.

So, should I take care of Scot, and leave Sam to the Lynch or maybe you guys later?

Oh and Please....

BTW my next post will also have why camn is mafia and needs to die ASAP

You promised Lets see the goods.

[DrippingGoofball]

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Wrong

Tar isn't thinking things through

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaait

[DrippingGoofball]

@Tar

Doesn't the Setesh gambit require them both to be scum?

=====================
WE ARE WITNESSING A GAMBIT
=====================

One of scot or Korejora is scum.

Chances that scot fakeclaimed a character in the game is ZERO times ZERO plus ZERO equals ZERO.

Scot claimed first.

Therefore, the only possible liar in this very simple equation is Korejora.

==============================
I STRONGLY OBJECT TO KILLING SCOT FIRST.
==============================

[DrippingGoofball]

More to come this afternoon. Please take no action.

stark is back into lurking and contributing zero. He has a claim that requires the existence of a cop and there is no cop.