populartajo wrote:what in your flavor suggests 3 kills, camn?
.........
also, tar, i dont know why but i have this feeling that if there is a scum between farside and sam, it HAS to be farside.
Look at the reactions. Farside thought it had to be sam or her but sam entered the day with a vote on camn (retarded thing to do as scum). Also, I could bet that sam was not here when night hit.
Can you confirm or deny this, sam?
Can your plan still can make town win if you kill wrong tonight? I still dont think Slicey is the best lynch of the day but your arguments are convincing and I cant give you more reason than gut in this scenario.
Also, the only question I have left is that do you really think that scotmany could have guessed exactly the name of a player here (korejora counterclaimed) cuz its what you are assuming happened, right? or am I missing something?
1) Tajo, the point is that I strongly believe the last scum is Slicey, and if that's the case there CAN'T be scum between Samhorn and farside.
Here, let's rephrase it for emphasis: I believe that NEITHER farside22 or samhorn is scum. The only reason I'm considering how to deal with them if one of them is scum is to hedge against the possibility that I am somehow wrong about Slicey.
Here, let's rephrase it again for simplicity: It's really easy for both farside and samhorn to be unlikely to be scum, because it's very possible that neither one is scum.
(Also, as for why samhorn will be vigged over farside tonight in the UNLIKELY event that Slicey is not scum: Samhorn didn't have to be here for the Mafia to kill last night, since Scotmany could have sent the kill on his own. Also, trying to get camn lynched makes sense for a Mafioso, since they need to discredit either myself or camn to have any chance at winning.)
2) The only way my plan loses is if camn is antitown or if the last Mafioso is UNK, though it can currently draw if you're the last Mafioso (which I'm starting to reconsider given your play in the last day or so). Period.
The problem is that I can't simultaneously hedge against camn being scum (SK) or against one of {farside, poptajo, samhorn} being scum.
Here's how it works:
- Lynch Slicey today. If he's somehow not Mafia, go to next step.
- Mafia kills me or Camn tonight. We kill an unconfirmed (presumably samhorn) tonight. If the person the Masons kill is not scum, go to next step.
- Day 6, 3 alive (including 1 Vehm member). Town lynches either farside or poptajo (the unconfirmeds), presumably farside. If Day 6 lynch is not scum, go to next step.
- Mafia kill last Vehm, Vehm kills last Mafioso. Game ends with no players alive.
Town loses if camn is scum with a daykill (game may end in draw otherwise) or if she's SK with the same win condition as in Mafia 87. Town also loses if the last Mafioso is bulletproof and survives to N6 (if our kill tonight fails, we have a confirmed Mafioso).
3) Thomas Aquinas is reasonably well known. Presumably Scotmany just made a bad/unlucky name claim and paid the price, much like I did in Stargate SG-1 ("Bill Lee" much?). Having actually been a Mafioso in this scenario (and survived, despite the bad claim, until the LAST unknown townie role name was revealed and counterclaimed me), trust me when I say it's not as improbable as some people seem to think it is.
