Mini 742 Monopoly Mafia - Game Over!

[Nightfall]

Fonz, your up.

[The Fonz]

Go, a JOAT. Shooting Grimmy was the only night action i've taken thus far (apparently Pacman tried to shoot Braeden earlier, but timed out). The other two are a doc protect and a roleblock.

[Nightfall]

Ok... I've got a few questions now... first being (and sorry if this is common knowledge to others but,) what's a JOAT?

[Nightfall]

Just did a little reading, and are you saying that you are a jack of all trades role,
With Vig, Doc protect, and Roleblock powers?

[Zilla]

ac1983fan replaces Panzerjager, who replaced Megatheory, who replaced Numberfourteen - Illinois Avenue, VT
CrashTextDummie replaces ooba, who replaced Gamma - Reading Railroad, VT
DrippingGoofball replaces Braeden - Boardwalk W/ Hotel, tracker
Nightfall - Free Parking, one-shot night immune
The Fonz replaces pacman281292 - Go, JoaT
Zilla replaces yawetag - Mediterranean Avenue, VT.

DGB claims N1, Nitefall didn't move (supported by roleclaim) and N2, Jebus investigated Alabaska J, while N3 was no-action submitted.

Fonz claims his only action was shooting Grimmy, and a previous attempt on Braeden "timed out." (not sure what this means)

-------------- FACTS END, SPECULATION BEGINS

I postulate Alabaska was framed. That quoted bit from Jebus reads like he knew Alabaska was scum, and his vote went straight onto Alabaska at the beginning of Day 3.

My top suspects at the moment are AC and CTD.

[CrashTextDummie]

I postulate Alabaska was framed. That quoted bit from Jebus reads like he knew Alabaska was scum, and his vote went straight onto Alabaska at the beginning of Day 3.

Doesn't make sense to me, for several reasons:
1. Jebus didn't consistently play like he had a guilty result on Alabaska J. He unvoted Alabaska J at some point during D3, stating that "it couldn't hurt to keep Alabaska around for a little bit" and that he "just [didn't] think Alabaska is the lynch for the day". This is counterweighted by the fact that he voted Alabaska as soon as D3 started and that he flat-out stated at some point that "Alabaska is scum".
2. Not only did his vote go straight onto Alabaska at the beginning of D3, it also went straight onto yawetag at the beginning of D2. We both agree that he must have gotten an innocent result on you at some point, which doesn't fit with your theory.

I can see these scenarios:
1. Jebus didn't investigate Alabaska J.
2. Jebus didn't trust his results.
3. Jebus played irrationally and counterintuitively.

The truth may lie in a combination of the above, but the more I read him, the more I lean towards option 3. I think it's possible that he began each day by voting the person he investigated, irrespective of the result he got. This would mean that he investigated Zilla on N1 and Alabaska on N2, but would make very little sense. It would explain why he changed his tune towards Zilla during the course of D2, but not his behavior towards Alabaska J. It also doesn't explain his weird flip-flop when it comes to my predecessor. The only solid indication we have of what he did is DGB's claim, which is problematic, to say the least.

Things I don't like about DGB's claim:
1. The flavor doesn't make sense to me. "Property X with a hotel" being a tracker doesn't translate in the context of Monopoly. Neither does "checking into a hotel" translate into revealing who they targetted. It would require a huge stretch of the imagination for this to make any sense whatsoever.
2. I don't agree with Zilla that Braeden breadcrumbed this claim. Quite the opposite actually. In my understanding of Monopoly, the colored streets are "normal properties" while the railroads and utilities are "special properties". Boardwalk may be infamous, but by no definition is it a "special property".
3. Our power-roles so far: Get Out of Jail Free Card, Officer Edgar Mallory, Mr. Monopoly, Go (claimed by Fonz), Boardwalk with a Hotel (claimed by DGB). Pick one that stands out. All other colored roads, both dead and claimed, are vanilla town.
4. I find it rather implausible that this game would have both a cop and a tracker, on top of all the other power-roles.

I may be forgetting something, but that's ample reasoning to suspect that DGB is lying. That's not to say that I necessarily believe that DGB isn't a tracker - her being a mafia tracker who tracked Jebus to Alabaska would explain why he was killed last night despite being one of the most attacked players in the game.

I have some issues with The Fonz's claim as well, but seeing as he's responsible for a dead mafiate, I have no interest in persuing this at all today.

I think DGB is scum. Based on claims, I'm leaning towards Nightfall being the other mafiate, but I'll look into acfan and even Zilla as well. Reread time.

[The Fonz]

We have, including the dead confirmeds, five claimed townies. I don't see any way the game has fewer than four. At most one of the claimed VTs, therefore, is scum.

DGB = scum already struck me as likely, since Grimmy was incredibly scummy and wasn't bussed. The claim arithmetic makes me basically as sure as i can be in a mafia game (ie, about 70%).

[The Fonz]

Oh, can someone with knowledge of the American version of Monopoly tell me what colour Boardwalk is? I'm familiar with the London version.

[Nightfall]

Boardwalk as far as I know has always been a dark blue O_O
And Fonz you still didn't answer my question.
-I'll take a closer look at DGB's claim hopefully sometime tomorrow-

[Zilla]

Boardwalk is the most valuable property in the game, light blue. Mediterranean (that's me) was the least valuable property and is dark blue. St. Charles is just past jail, and is pink/purple. Illinois Avenue is past Free Parking and is red.

My belief in DGB's claim lies in Braeden's breadcrumbing. I do see that all the other properties are vanilla, but Boardwalk with a hotel is the single best individual piece of property you can own on the game, and I'd consider it to be "special."

However, that's about the only thing that's keeping me from suspecting DGB.

I'm a little nonplussed by CTD's non-reaction to me naming him as one of my two top-suspects. The most reaction it got was a subtle OMGUS saying I'm worth looking at.

[Zilla]

Nightfall, results of your analysis?

[DrippingGoofball]

tap tap tap

[Nightfall]

My thoughts on DGB's claim

DGB = Boardwalk with a hotel?
This part of DGB's claim I can believe. Braeden was against name claiming because he thought that power roles would be outed because people know the special or "infamous" spaces. Boardwalk with a hotel is a very infamous space and looking at the other roles claimed it's very reasonable to believe that scum would have targeted him if we name claimed.

Boardwalk with hotel = Tracker?
In terms of flavour I can see this being true. However, just because something would work flavour wise doesn't make things true in this game. We found that out with "get out of jail free" and the "officer" (Go to jail).

DGB = Boardwalk with hotel = Tracker = Town?
I went back and forth on this one many times. The result.... I'm not sure...

But, I am actually

leaning

more towards town.
My thought process follows:

When I read DGB's claim I thought it sounded legitimate flavour wise, I didn't go anywhere night one, and I briefly remembered how Jebus had been saying the day before that he thought it couldn't hurt to keep ala around for another day. I then went back to reread day 3. The first thing Jebus did was place his vote on ala which would lead me to think that he wanted to lynch ala. So I leaned a bit toward thinking DGB would be lying as our cop wouldn't vote an innocent after just investigating him... I then thought that Jebus was going to be away and he later did remove his vote and say that he didn't want to lynch ala, so maybe the vote was breadcrumbing who he investigated for later? But that would be a pretty risky thing to do. Next we had Jebus state that he was willing to hammer Ala. This made me think ok, there is no way he could have investigated ala. That however is when I got to the lynch&night scenes and our wild card in this situation, Grimmy the busdriver. I did a search on the wiki because I wanted to make sure I knew what the role powers were for certain (I've never been a bus driver before and have rarely had one in my games before.) Anyways, the wiki said

"The Bus Driver is a pro-town role who may choose to switch two players each night. Thus, any night choice performed on a switched player will affect the other player targeted by the Bus Driver. The Bus Driver's night choices are only valid for that same night. "

This made me think that ok, there is a chance that Jebus was Grimmy's target night 2, and DGB tracked someone else? But the chances of that would be pretty low I would think. That's when I thought, what if it wasn't Jebus who was Grimmy's target but Ala? This actually made a lot of sense to me. Thinking as if I was in Grimmy's shoes, here we went day two with a large group wanting to lynch Ala but we end up going no lynch. If we have a cop in this game, the chances that he will investigate Ala that night would be rather high. So what if I (Grimmy) was to target Ala and one of my scum buddies with my power? The cop if he investigated Ala would get a guilty, and on top of that on the chance that my partner was investigated he would turn up innocent. A win win situation. This would explain Jebus's vote on Ala and his willingness to hammer him later on. The talk about letting Ala live might have been to try and prolong the day to get more info out of Ala maybe?

So in the end, I'm really not sure. For DGB to be telling the truth and be town, I think it would mean that Grimmy would have had to have interfered by either targeting Jebus or Ala night 2. The question is, would Grimmy/the scum have thought to target Ala? I'm leaning more towards the belief that they would. And therefore I'm leaning more towards DGB being town.

[Zilla]

There's also the possibility of a mafia framer framing Alabska.

[Nightfall]

I just checked the Wiki. I had never actually even heard of that role before.
If someone has that role here, it would be a first for me.

[CrashTextDummie]

I appologize, I've been ill. I'll try to get some reading in today.

[Zilla]

I've seen it in two of my six or so games here.

[Zilla]

Activity please?

vote: Crash Text Dummie

[DrippingGoofball]

Activity please?

vote: Crash Text Dummie

Why?

[Zilla]

SensFan would do it

[Zilla]

Actually, that's not entirely right. Sens would wait and hammer the first person in striking distance...

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm a little nonplussed by CTD's non-reaction to me naming him as one of my two top-suspects. The most reaction it got was a subtle OMGUS saying I'm worth looking at.

What kind of reaction where you looking for? There is no case against me and up until your vote today, there was no drive to get me lynched. DGB and Nightfall didn't react to me naming them my two top suspects, does that nonplus you as well?

The fact that I find you worth looking at has nothing to do with OMGUS. I previously assumed that Jebus had an innocent result on you, but having taken a closer look at his play has led me to the opinion that none of his play should be taken for granted. I still think an innocent result on you is most plausible, but I'm not willing to bet the game on this assumption anymore. Jebus didn't consistently play like he had investigated you, much like he didn't play consistently about anything.

Furthermore, I find your play today somewhat hard to follow, from your attitude towards DGB to your attempt to construe a "non-reaction" to being called a top suspect as scummy, to your insistence on this:

There's also the possibility of a mafia framer framing Alabska.

Let me repeat what I said before:
Jebus didn't play like he had a guilty result on Alabaska. Your theory that there is a mafia framer is based entirely on a single post of Jebus, and ignores several pieces of evidence that suggest that he didn't have a guilty. Not to mention the fact that your theory would require the scum-team to have both a busdriver and a framer, which strikes me as unlikely, to say the least.

------

DGB and Nightfall have so far neglected to make any indication of who they suspect to be scum today at all. That strikes me as scummy

[Zilla]

Keeping my vote there.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'll humor you, Zilla. Why are you voting me?

[DrippingGoofball]

I'll humor you, Zilla. Why are you voting me?

I asked first why she's voting you!