A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[danakillsu]

By the way, just catching up on something from ages ago...

Also, I would like to hear others' thoughts on my post that Raivann messed up on rather than their bashing of Raivann for messing up. I think the messing up part is a null tell, personally.

Sorry, which post are you talking about? Who's suspecting Raivann for "messing up"?

Um....
How about...
Raivann is actually posting? And Kleedrac has simply given up?

Kleedrac is getting replaced, anyway, so this argument doesn't work.

Are you sure? Eddard Stark doesn't seem to be saying this. If Kleedrac is replaced with someone decent, I'd be just as down for a Raivann lynch I guess. But my point about the timing is still valid.
And I'm talking about my June 13, 8:31 PM post. And Mikujin was bashing Raivann.

I finally got around to checking your post, and this is what it said:

Yes, I simply meant the surge of votes toward Raivann instead of Kleedrac, who is only L-6. Here's what I see as our options today:
1) Lynch Richard. IMHO, not a good idea.
2) Lynch Kleedrac. If you believe he's scummy, why not? He's not going to help town even if we keep him alive, since he's given up on posting. And if he's scum, he'll probably do just as much harm as Raivann-scum would.
3) Lynch Raivann. But if we don't do this today, even if he's scum, it probably won't hurt us.
End result: IF you don't want to lynch Richard after his claim, and IF you find Kleedrac nearly as scummy as Raivann, you should be voting for Kleedrac.

Where do you mention anything about "messing up" or "nulltells"? You just give strategic reasons to vote Kleedrac or Raivann. I feel as though I'm missing a step in your logic.

You asked which post Raivann messed up ON. I gave it to you. What is this crap about mentioning something about messing up or null tells in the post?

[Eddard Stark]

CSL replaces Hayker effective immediately.

MagnaOfIllusion has been prodded

[Ellibereth]

I SEE MASSES OF WALLS AEFRUYAWRGLAR.
MUST READ MASSES OF WALLS.
MUST SKIM MASSES OF WALLS.
MUST SKIP MASS OS WALLS >.<

Raivan is town -> http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 8#p2317958 <- That trio stream of posts came from town.

So yeah, I'll skim around the last few pages looking at stuff now.

[Drippereth]

I SEE MASSES OF WALLS AEFRUYAWRGLAR.
MUST READ MASSES OF WALLS.
MUST SKIM MASSES OF WALLS.
MUST SKIP MASS OS WALLS >.<

Raivan is town -> http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 8#p2317958 <- That trio stream of posts came from town.

So yeah, I'll skim around the last few pages looking at stuff now.

[CSL]

Hi all. Yesterday night, and into early morning, I have re-read this game. However, I did forget to write down notes, so I'm going to just try to remember what my reads were. Here goes.

TOWN READS

Percy
Drippereth
Richard (claim believable)
Mina

SCUM READS

Kleedrac (Richard's claim is believable, so this guy looks scum)
Deer (He quit, and I have a scumread on him anyway)
danakillsu (Not been doing a good job, lately. I want to see him scumhunt a bit more)

Everyone else is either a neutral read, or lurkerscumbag


So, the following is as follows

VOTE: Kleedrac

Raise: Percy

[vezokpiraka]

Back. Now let me see. Anything happened the last few pages?
In case I'm not voting for keldraac for some reason
UNVOTE:
VOTE: keeldrac

[CSL]

Analyzing Kleedrac's 12 posts...

1: First post was random, but he was the first one to raise himself.

3: A case on CMAR. I do have a slight suspicion of CMAR, and a scumread on Kleedrac, and votes him. Also comes up with an excuse as to why he wasn't posting.

4: He didn't find anything scummy about Richard, while everyone and their grandmother were wanting his death at the time. SCUMMY.

5: Quotes Drippereth, and plays the clueless card. SCUMMY.

6: "Everyone else is scum" VERY SCUMMY.

7: Says again that CMAR is scum. Calls Drippereth on bad logic when everything they say is logic. SCUMMY

8: Don't assume all are scum. Your wish could come true in some game.

10: I SEE AN OMGUS VOTE! EXTRA SCUM POINTS FOR YOU!!!

11: Plays the newbie card. Scummy.

12: And after all that he did not answer anything.

Conclusion:

Distancing and OMGUS votes are scum strategies that this guy didn't close up all the way. This guy is scum. CASE CLOSED. Why the hell isn't he lynched yet?

[CSL]

vezopiraka, you were already voting Kleedrac. Check the votecount on the last page.

[RichardGHP]

Question: How many people at this point would be willing to lynch me today?

[Rifka Viveka]

Ill try answering this as simply as i possible can to get the points across

1) Do you disagree with I doubt it's case on Benmage, but dislike Benmage for other reasons?
2) Is there something I doubt is has done that makes him look scummy/inexperienced to you?
3) Is there a reason you dropped your suspicion of Benmage?
4) I want you to explain, in detail, just why you think your case on Benmage is better than I doubt it's.

1. i doubt its case is very unprofessional in any event.
2. I read and reacted to a single post(or however many he made at that moment in time) not based on a scum or town read of i doubt it.
3. I dont need to be suspicious of someone to sharply engage them. see below
4. This case on benmage doesnt exist, assuming case means coherent argument for being scum. I like him for town now

[RichardGHP]

EBWOP: I would like everyone to answer my question, please, and give reasoning for why or why not.

[CSL]

Richard, your claim is believable. If you end up getting nightkilled, and you are what you claim, which is pretty much accurate, the person who is to kill can kill from yours, or his/hers, list of suspects.

That said, I am not for a Richard lynch today. Anyone wanting his lynch should be lynched on the spot.

[Unsight]

Question: How many people at this point would be willing to lynch me today?

I'm not. I think your play is on par with Mafia 110 and your claim is believable. I think most of the people who still want to lynch you need to go read your ISO from 110.

[Unsight]

Hi all. Yesterday night, and into early morning, I have re-read this game. However, I did forget to write down notes, so I'm going to just try to remember what my reads were. Here goes.

TOWN READS

Percy
Drippereth
Richard (claim believable)
Mina

SCUM READS

Kleedrac (Richard's claim is believable, so this guy looks scum)
Deer (He quit, and I have a scumread on him anyway)
danakillsu (Not been doing a good job, lately. I want to see him scumhunt a bit more)

Everyone else is either a neutral read, or lurkerscumbag


So, the following is as follows

VOTE: Kleedrac

Raise: Percy

Analyzing Kleedrac's 12 posts...

1: First post was random, but he was the first one to raise himself.

3: A case on CMAR. I do have a slight suspicion of CMAR, and a scumread on Kleedrac, and votes him. Also comes up with an excuse as to why he wasn't posting.

4: He didn't find anything scummy about Richard, while everyone and their grandmother were wanting his death at the time. SCUMMY.

5: Quotes Drippereth, and plays the clueless card. SCUMMY.

6: "Everyone else is scum" VERY SCUMMY.

7: Says again that CMAR is scum. Calls Drippereth on bad logic when everything they say is logic. SCUMMY

8: Don't assume all are scum. Your wish could come true in some game.

10: I SEE AN OMGUS VOTE! EXTRA SCUM POINTS FOR YOU!!!

11: Plays the newbie card. Scummy.

12: And after all that he did not answer anything.

Conclusion:

Distancing and OMGUS votes are scum strategies that this guy didn't close up all the way. This guy is scum. CASE CLOSED. Why the hell isn't he lynched yet?

As part of scum hunting, I analyze posts and then I vote someone. The analysis part comes before the vote part because it's how I know I'm voting scum.

CSL did the exact opposite here. He votes Kleedrac and then analyzes Kleedrac's ISO.

FoS CSL

[hasdgfas]

Question: How many people at this point would be willing to lynch me today?

today? no. I believe the claim, although I'm still not 100% sure it's town. I'd rather analyze later play before deciding.

As part of scum hunting, I analyze posts and then I vote someone. The analysis part comes before the vote part because it's how I know I'm voting scum.

CSL did the exact opposite here. He votes Kleedrac and then analyzes Kleedrac's ISO.

FoS CSL

CSL, why did you do it this way?(I have a theory and have more to say about this, but would like a response from CSL first)

[CSL]

That's how I usually do it. I'm backwards in some ways, where I vote, and then give proof.

[RichardGHP]

I don't think it should be looked into too much. Plenty of people vote first and give reasons afterwards.

[xvart]

Sorry about my absence; I've been swamped at work. I'm going to be rereading my games and posting later tonight/tomorrow.

xvart.

[CSL]

Be warned. I am unable to post tomorrow. Going to be in a vehicle all day.

I'll only have time for this game, and that's that.

[Percy]

@danakillsu

: You started with an "IF you find Raivann as scummy as Kleedrac", a hypothetical. You also say his messing up is a null tell.
Then, you say you would be down for a Raivann lynch - you guess.
And now: your scumread on Raivann

has always been

equal to your scumread on Kleedrac?
You're retconning your read here. I also don't like this:

Raivann is

at least almost

as scummy as Kleedrac

At least almost?! More weaselling.

@Mina

: I like the Raivann wagon better than the Kleedrac wagon. I've explained the reasons I like the Kleedrac wagon elsewhere, but I can't help shake the feeling that the case has been somewhat exaggerated/manufactured.

A good example of that is CSL's

vote justification post

, where every post Kleedrac ever made is spun into a scumtell. That is

exactly

what CSL's predecessor (Hayker) did with vezopiraka. Let's re-quote what I said before and apply it to CSL:

CSL's catchup post reads as conjuring up reasons (while parroting others) to jump on a wagon. The case itself is weak and overreaching[.]

HoS: CSL

@RichardGHP

:

Question: How many people at this point would be willing to lynch me today?

This is your promised post? The one you've been promising since Thursday?
Or did you just pop in to gauge the suspicion level on you, and called it a good day's work?

@Unsight

: Could you explain to me why, when Mina

votes Raivann

and then explained it

three days later

, this was not worthy of notice, but when CSL adopts the vote-then-case approach with Kleedrac, it's worth a FoS?

@Kinetic

: Do you see a distinction between Mina's play in the prequel mini and in this game?

Now I've done my ISOs, but I'm going to keep the reads to myself for now. Most of my reads are still fairly neutral, and I have far too many open leads and lurking persons-of-interest to start making or even stating conclusions.

As for CryMeARiver:
I'm not crash hot on his initial push against Richard. His play during the Richard wagon is scummy, as were his attempts to lead the town out of the RVS. Then lolwut breadcrumb, and the unvote after the claim is even more scummy behaviour.
Whilst I think Raivann is still a good chance of finding scum, I think CMAR breaks the camel's back with his making disingenuous excuses for his absence.

Unvote, Vote: CryMeARiver

.

[RichardGHP]

@Percy: I promised a post, you got one. Quit complaining.

[LimMePls]

Question: How many people at this point would be willing to lynch me today?

I was willing to lynch you today after my reread. See my case for reasons why. Percy made very good points about why your claimed role is likely true. Therefore I am not for lynching you... today.

For the love of god, if you are what you claim to be, would you PLEASE help us hunt scum instead of doing absolutely nothing? Thank you.

[LimMePls]

@Percy: I promised a post, you got one. Quit complaining.

You are clearly pro-town.

I'm feeling better about that case every "post" Richard, so keep it up.

@Everyone else: By deadline if we have no better candidate, I seriously propose Richard as our lynch. He shows absolutely 0 intention to participate in a helpful way, and he will only cause us to have the "Is Richard scum" discussion every day for the rest of the game. His play today has, IMO, been sufficiently scummy to warrant a lynch.

[RichardGHP]

Why do you think I haven't been participating?

[julienvonwolfe]

Hay Guys, I've found scum!

I will first deal with

SSBF

first. I have commented before on his 'textbook' play; he goes for the easy comments and even at his most analytical doesn't actually analyse. If you read this post, his main suspect is Migwelloni:

Migwelloni: The outright worst offender of the people voting RichardGHP. He quite litterally said that he voted RichardGHP because it was a good bandwagon, which was a completely ridiculous reason for voting RichardGHP. On top of that, he failed to acknowledge that he put RichardGHP at L-1. His vote was extremely scummy.

Sure, it's ridiculous and ill-considered, but these don't guarantee that Migwelloni is scum! Migwelloni's bandwagoning was not good, but in my experience is not uncommon amongst newer players, both town and scum; also, his failing to acknowledge that he put Richard at L-1 could be a sign of he as a newer player not being aware of conventions regarding lynching, or of the care that players on this site usually put into placing a vote. SSBF does not appear to have considered these points before calling Migwelloni 'extremely scummy', but simply relies on textbook tells. Finally, if Migwelloni was so suspicious, SSBF certainly seems to have forgotten about it since! Perhaps it is because of the lurking/replacement issue, but perhaps - and this is what I think - he has simply departed for pastures anew and easier pickings?

Related to the above analysis of the Richard wagon is his position concerning Richard's alignment. SSBF made the above analysis while apparently having a neutral read of Richard! Surely if he were to divide people into town, neutral and scum as he did he would find it easier if he had a concrete opinion of Richard, since mafia is a game of analysing people's interactions. There is no sign that he had a neutral opinion of Richard - that is, that he thought Richard was equally scum or town - in his analysis, which stinks.

The final reason I shall give for SSBF's scumminess is his interactions with Benmage. Rifka has already commented on this, pointing out that not only is Benmage made scummier by SSBF answering for him, but that SSBF was doing just what he said he wasn't - defending Benmage! In this contradiction we see SSBF squirming and displaying self-consciousness, something we also see in Parrotgate. Scum has more need to be careful than town, since they cannot afford to be lynched quite as much as town can, and I think we see signs of SSBF-scum trying desperately to make sure he doesn't cast the wrong impression.

MacavityLock

has played a good game, except with regards to his interactions with SSBF. Observe:

Although I prefer to raise Macavity Lock instead, you're not a bad choice either.

And then:

I'll be in favor of raising you. Like others said, you have been playing very well. Although I prefer to raise Macavity Lock instead, you're not a bad choice either.

When had you ever mentioned me as a candidate for Raising? This is weird and out of the blue.

Why not leave it to die? ML specifically feels the need to point this out despite the six-page difference and criticise SSBF for it, and to me it just doesn't feel genuine. It and ML's subsequent interactions with SSBF feel like distancing and/or bussing to me, especially this one, where he backs off a bit, but says that his biggest reason for suspecing SSBF was his use of FOSes. That's much more emphasis on FOSes than he gives here - a small but troubling inconsistency, given the other stuff that he called out SSBF on and this. Why did he not mention SSBF's unnecessary apologies in the post where he backs off, given that he called SSBF unequevocally scummy for the apology but only a 'bit' scummy for the FOSes, initially? This point is on the tenuous side, I know, but consider this also: in the post where SSBF analyses those on the Richard wagon, he places Macavity under the 'null' category -

yet he also considered him townie enough to be Raised to Hand!?

Contradiction! Scum! Die!

I'll deal quickly with

Raivann

- enough has been said by others on his recent posts. I would add this:

Mcav, whatya think of Deer?

Tastes good in stews and as a steak.

I see the tell of trying to avoid all responsibility for a potential vote. I'd say he's leaning towards the scummy side. Still, I do think that there are other people scummier.

Deer was Raivann's predecessor, and here we see the scummy scummy McScum MacavityLock trying to brush off early pressure on Deer in a classic distancing-but-sitting-on-the-fence move. Note also that later in the game, ML has said outright that he doesn't want to lynch Rai! This is quite a statement given the pressure Rai is under. Finally, note that Deer was also in SSBF's neutral list in his 'analysis' of the Richard wagon.


I propose that SSBF, MacavityLock and Raivann are all on the same scumteam. To this hypothetical scumteam I would add

Drippereth

. There are two main points I have against Drippereth:

1) The troubling behaviour regarding SSBF:

SCUM

Super Smash Bros. Fan (I have reasons I will expand on soon)

Kleedrac (conditional on Richard flip)
I doubt it
Deer
RichardGHP

TOWN

Drippereth
LynchMePls
Unsight
Benmage
Percy
Vezopiraka
DrModem hasdgfas
danakillsu
MagnaOfIllusion

Super Smash Bros. Fan

RichardGHP

Bolding mine; no reasons were given for the flip-flop, and no reasons for thinking SSBF scum were given either. Iso page two of Drip's posts and see for yourself. Note also this defending of SSBF.

2) See this post for another piece of evidence that links Drippereth into the SSBF - Macavity - Raivann - Drip scumteam; this time, a defense of Raivann.


I'm pretty sure that Kleedrac is frustrated town; this is gut, and I would only call myself 80% sure. That said, I don't think that he'll contribute much to the game, and I give him a 20% chance of being anti-town because his newb playstyle, combined with the 'giving up' behaviour that he demonstrates, could effectively hide this. I'd be willing to vote Rai, though I really want to lynch SSBF. Percy's a good Hand, too.

Thusly:

Vote: Raivann
Raise: Percy