A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[hasdgfas]

The Greatjon as a bulletproof? Hmmmmm. I'm not sure how well that fits. He was fearless, but the rest of the post doesn't seem to fit.
Not to mention the fact that bulletproof claims are often by scum means a CMAR lynch is fine with me.

Plus going through the format of his Role PM when there's an example in the first post.

[Drippereth]

Did you read anything after your "OH SHIT" comment from yesterday?
And you were all active in your other games in preceding days, why weren't you here?

And who's Scum?

[MagnaofIllusion]

And then there's whatever magna has.

I wanted to see if he would offer up the following bit of information –

And that I WILL be informed if an attempt on my life is made.

Without it I would be 100% he was making crap up. As it stands I'm not really convinced based on the timing and other issues. And his lovely "I'm so sorry" post.

[Drippereth]

Look, I'm really sorry guys, this isn't my normal play AT ALL. I have WAY too many games on my plate at the moment and I am SOOOOO limited on the computer it's not even fair. Sorry for screwing everything up.

Am I the only one who had a first reaction here that he was apologizing to his scumteam?

[LimMePls]

And who's Scum?

**JEOPARDY THEME**

[CryMeARiver]

Did you read anything after your "OH SHIT" comment from yesterday?
And you were all active in your other games in preceding days, why weren't you here?

And who's Scum?

I was not active at all in any of my other games, you can be sure of that lmao.
Yes, I read some.

My scumbuddies of course Lemme tell ya about it, you know the ones I was apologizing to

[I doubt it]

Sigh, I should replace out, but whatever, I'll claim
I am Jon Umber, Innocent Alligned, or as my role flavor hints at and I breadcrumbed earlier, Greatjon BADASS aligned - I am a bulletproof hence why I tried to lead town at the beginning and act like a protown macho but was epicly foiled by Richard who really pissed me off. So yeah, my role PM consists of my vote, my kill immunity, and my win con. Oh, and apparently when wolves bite my fingers, I just laugh in their face? Idk

I have every reason to believe that is a completely bullshit claim CMAR.

Is that all your PM says about your Bulletproof ability?

Answer carefully.

Hmmmm, let's go thru my PM without being modkilled, shall we?
I am welcomed to the game.
It says my flavor name, my allignment. Then a whole bunch of flavor stuff.
It says I have a vote and it counts as 1 towards the daily lynch.
It says I have a kill immunity and that I am so bad ass an attempt on my life will fail, but lynches don't count. So the if I'm lynched, like I might be, it will succeed. And that I WILL be informed if an attempt on my life is made.
Then it says my wincon. When the scum are dead and the kingdom is safe(ish).

That's it.

Too bad you clarified yourself there, it would have been pretty funny if you insisted on being bulletproof when guns have yet to be invented in the world of ASoIaF. I thought this was what Magnaofillusion was going for, by the way.

Not that it matters. It's too little, too late, and it smells like a fakeclaim. Even if it's true, scum just won't waste kills on him now that he's claimed. Going ahead with the hammer is fine by me, once Mina has posted whatever she wishes.

[Eddard Stark]

7(ish) Hours til Deadline.

There will be no lynch unless 14 votes are reached.

Vote count 1.26: The

"Jaime Lannister sends his regards"

votecount

.

Lynch Count

Super Smash Bros. Fan (1) -

Unsight

CryMeARiver (13) -

Hasdgfas, MacavityLock, RichardGHP, xvart, Axelrod, MagnaofIllusion, CSL , Raivann, Mikujin, Percy, Budja, Vezokpiraka, Locke Lamora

Budja (2) -

Drippereth, Mina

Raivann (4) -

julienvonwolfe, Thor665, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Benmage

RichardGHP (4) -

LynchmePls, Rifka Vivieka, Danakillsu, I Doubt It,

Not voting to Lynch (2) - CryMeARiver, Kinetic

With 26 alive it takes 14 to lynch.

The deadline for today's lynch is

10:00pm on Thursday the 24th of June

. You can view a countdown to the deadline

here

.

[LimMePls]

**JEOPARDY THEME ENDS**

Well CMAR, what is your answer?

My scumbuddies of course Lemme tell ya about it, you know the ones I was apologizing to

*BUZZER*

Ooh, I'm sorry that's incorrect. What we were looking for was some actual participation and useful contribution to the town. Tell him what he's won.

Well Alex, he's won himself a beautiful LMP HAMMER!

As soon as Mina is done posting her wall, you are toast.

[CryMeARiver]

**JEOPARDY THEME ENDS**

Well CMAR, what is your answer?

My scumbuddies of course Lemme tell ya about it, you know the ones I was apologizing to

*BUZZER*

Ooh, I'm sorry that's incorrect. What we were looking for was some actual participation and useful contribution to the town. Tell him what he's won.

Well Alex, he's won himself a beautiful LMP HAMMER!

As soon as Mina is done posting her wall, you are toast.

I really don't care for your play anyway actually, not my fault my life has some unexpected turns. At least they are good turns so I will do something with my life Have a good game guys

[Mina]

Oh, God, this is a mess.

The sad part is, again, CMAR's early play and breadcrumbs ARE consistent with someone trying to draw a NK (albeit really, really badly). BUT WHY WOULD YOU WAIT UNTIL NOW? And why did you flake on the game if you were trying to draw a kill?

Drippereth, "Mina" and "fast" is an oxymoron. There's more I have to say (about Kinetic and Percy), if people are willing to wait. But I'll come forward with my catch on CSL. (I feel bad, since--full disclosure--I was the one who told CSL in the first place that we were looking for replacements.)

When CSL first showed up, he bashes Kleedrac a lot, but also says this:

TOWN READS
Percy
Drippereth
Richard (claim believable)
Mina

SCUM READS
Kleedrac (Richard's claim is believable, so this guy looks scum)
Deer (He quit, and I have a scumread on him anyway)
danakillsu (Not been doing a good job, lately. I want to see him scumhunt a bit more)

In his Kleedrac case, he says about CMAR:

3: A case on CMAR.

I do have a slight suspicion of CMAR

, and a scumread on Kleedrac, and votes him. Also comes up with an excuse as to why he wasn't posting.

So in other words, he suspects CMAR, but Raivann/Deer more (odd that he doesn't mention a scum read on Raivann even though this was after Raivann's implosion).

Furthermore, he makes this statement:

That said, I am not for a Richard lynch today. Anyone wanting his lynch should be lynched on the spot.

Pretty strong words.

Except, of course,

Raivann tried to lynch Richard in his very first post

!

Then he votes CMAR in order to get a lynch. When called on it, he answers like this:

I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now. Raivann can wait until tomorrow.

I wanted to see if he'd noticed that Raivann tried to lynch Richard. That's why I didn't want to give away my catch until he answered these questions:

And...what is the scumread based on? Why do you suspect CMAR more than Raivann? Why do you suspect CMAR, in fact?
So if you're saying we should lynch Raivann tomorrow, are you implying that he's your second top suspect? Do you suspect him more than

Kleedrac

, who you seemed convinced was scum before? Why do you suspect Raivann?

Of course, he justifies his suspicions like this:

He's been making scummy posts. I'll get to fully analysing him tomorrow, if no one hammers. (If a hammer happens before I get to it, the player who did is scum)

In his analysis, he only mentions stuff that happened early in the game, which was when he only had a "slight" suspicion of CMAR, as opposed to a strong read on Deer.

Conclusions:
1) CSL originally suspected Raivann/Deer more than CMAR, but votes CMAR over Raivann.
2) Even though he stated anyone who wanted to lynch Richard should be "lynched on the spot," he still had no problems with Raivann.

The second one--fine, I

suppose

he might not have been paying attention, or resorting to hyperbole. But the first one is pretty bad. At first, I was thinking CSL and Raivann might be scumbuddies. Now, I'm just suspicious of CSL.

The reason I voted for Richard at first was to see how CSL would react. Would he want to lynch me for "trying to lynch him"?

But then, I realized that:

1) We already had the information that CSL wasn't consistent. As luck would have it, several people ended up voting for Richard anyway--and CSL didn't react to it. Note that he didn't react to any of the other votes on Richard, either.

2) It would be better to revive the Budja wagon, because lots of people had stated firm opinions on him. We could analyze the mobs and try to catch people on an inconsistency in suspects the next day. Also, since Budja was apparently CSL's top suspect, his reaction to a Budja wagon would be informative. Meanwhile, people could rationalize their reluctance to jump onto Richard with "But...but...

his claim

!"

So it turns out people weren't as serious about their Budja suspicions as I thought.

Unfortunately, I'd need to compare the wagons throughout Day 1 to see if anyone was inconsistent on Budja, Raivann, or CMAR, or if anyone was trying to protect Budja/CMAR. And furthermore, people are going to claim that there just weren't enough

votes

on Budja to lynch him, and Raivann's vig claim suddenly made Richard look scummier. So that will obscure people's real motives.

Right now, my gut feeling based on how the wagons developed is that both CMAR and Raivann are town. I'm not sure about Budja and Richard--they might have been protected, but it's also likely that he was just the target of opportunistic voters, since many of the floating Budja votes went to CMAR. And of course, if there are multiple scumteams. But again, I haven't done the analysis.
-----
Raivann, I think your best shot of hitting scum right now is Kinetic or CSL (Kinetic is my first choice because CSL might just be that kind of careless player, and because I have a paranoid scumteam theory into which Kinetic-scum fits better than CSL-scum). vezokpiraka would be a decent (albeit low-information) shot just because he's impossible to read. I also REALLY dislike I doubt it's recent play. Just ISO him. He's taken a very safe stance on all the wagons. He also keeps trying to cast sideways doubt on all the claims. (He's not the only one guilty of this, but more later.)

But I'm starting to think it's a better strategic move overall to vig either Budja or Richard tonight. Both have been wagoned, and both will probably be wagoned again tomorrow. Having flips on either of them will help us evaluate the alignments of most of the other players in the game. It will also force everyone to move on tomorrow and look in new directions.

...Of course, the caveat is that it will be easier to figure out Budja or Richard's alignment once we get a few flips on their wagon, so you might be getting rid of someone who'll be probable town down the road. Hmm.

[Mina]

You know, since CMAR is a revealed bulletproof and so many people are deadset on lynching him, lynching him is better than no lynch. If people are going to turn on him anyway, might as well get a flip on him today. But to be honest, I feel as though he's town.

Seriously, how many people are around? Has anyone ever managed fourteen votes on one player within six hours?

[Axelrod]

This is why I hate Day 1.

That claim is not terrible, and the "breadcrumbs" are semi-consistent.

I've still got one rather large question, CMAR. You may have missed this in your "re-read" but one of the things people really disliked about your play was that when Richard claimed (Renley - gives a 1-shot vig to Loras if he dies) you said "Shat!" and unvoted

immediately

. Like, there wasn't even time for you to have seriously thought about the claim.

Why did you say that, and why did you unvote?

I will confess here that one thing I was looking for from you was some connection to Renley or Loras that might have explained why you reacted so strongly to that particular claim. But this claim has nothing like that in it.

[Mina]

I should add:

1) In the mini, scum were given the ability to PM the mod for a fake role claim, with abilities and flavour text. In fact, the fake claims were often consistent with the real claims (e.g., both "fake" Jon and "real" Samwell having references to the Night Watch having a stake in King's Landing). I see no reason to think it would be different now. CMAR would have needed to have asked for one right at the beginning of the game to fit with his breadcrumbs, though.

2) The one-shot BP player was informed in the mini when an attempt was made on his life.

3) MagnaofIllusion, if CMAR flips town, you will have some explaining to do later. But let it lie for now.

Axelrod is back on my leaning-town list. So are LynchMePls, Drippereth, and MacavityLock--

possibly

MagnaofIllusion.

Thor, I've seen you active in the Theme Park forum over the past couple of days. Yet you haven't had much to say. Thoughts on anything?

[xvart]

I find the timing and the massive amounts of posts recently by CMAR to be especially damning. I want him to answer why he didn't claim yesterday with his "Oh shit rereading post."

1) In the mini, scum were given the ability to PM the mod for a fake role claim, with abilities and flavour text. In fact, the fake claims were often consistent with the real claims (e.g., both "fake" Jon and "real" Samwell having references to the Night Watch having a stake in King's Landing). I see no reason to think it would be different now. CMAR would have needed to have asked for one right at the beginning of the game to fit with his breadcrumbs, though.

Unless he was waiting until now to get the pm from the mod with his mod-created fake claim for the flavor, which is why there was a delay in the response.

Potential vig targets: CMAR, Richard, danakillsu, vezo

Forgot about Kleedrac/Budja on this list.

xvart.

[LimMePls]

Unvote
Vote: CMAR

[LimMePls]

^^ not ending in a NL, and there is no other alternative. Timer is running out. I waited on Mina's wall o post, then I hammered, as promised.

[LimMePls]

I really don't care for your play anyway actually, not my fault my life has some unexpected turns.

A common courtesy is to replace out if life gives you unexpected turns. That's what everyone else does. Showing up every few days with an excuse and a claim you are going to start participating again, only to not do so is rude and inconsiderate to the rest of us.

[CSL]

Mina. A lynch > No Lynch

The CMAR wagon had more steam in it, therefore, I voted CMAR for the sake of a lynch.

[Thor665]

Thor, I've seen you active in the Theme Park forum over the past couple of days. Yet you haven't had much to say. Thoughts on anything?

I have been active since I've been here reading off and on when I have free time. Since my post yesterday I have the following thoughts on what's happened since (that was my roundabout way of disagreeing about whether I've had much to say <-- this part is the non-roundabout way);

I think CMAR is probably town, as I've said before. I think he wins the hat o' fail for not claiming yesterday when there might have been time to do something about it. I share the attitude presented by Axlerod, as I think town is being forced to blunder into this lynch now because of CMAR's lurking. As long as we're accusing CMAR of bad play, I'll add his lack of a current vote. By lack of voting he's basically helping his own wagon - fail.

I'm not sure what to think of your Richard/Riavann consideration since my suspicions are flip-flopped from your own (I suspect Richard town and Riav scum) I agree that there is something amiss in that relationship.

@Mina

- what are your thoughts about the movement from Riav to Richard post Riav's claim?

Vote: Budja

i will not be around at deadline as I'm off to work again until late tonight. I am willing to try to help this wagon since I think the CMAR wagon is town and I don't mind competing for the record on getting 14 votes for a lynch. I encourage everyone who's saying "hey...I think CMAR's probably town...shame it's too late" to get off your wide duffs and actually cast a vote somewhere else or accept and admit that you desire to see CMAR lynched - any other action is poor play in my eyes.

Everyone who is on a wagon that isn't CMAR really owes it to everyone else in the game to get some motion going in some direction. Declare support of the CMAR wagon or start selling yours.

Kleedrac was an opportunistic lurker - as far as I can tell Budja has some negativity of his own and is at the very least also a lurker. Let's lynch him over a slot everyone is now admitting looks townish, yes?

[Mina]

1) In the mini, scum were given the ability to PM the mod for a fake role claim, with abilities and flavour text. In fact, the fake claims were often consistent with the real claims (e.g., both "fake" Jon and "real" Samwell having references to the Night Watch having a stake in King's Landing). I see no reason to think it would be different now. CMAR would have needed to have asked for one right at the beginning of the game to fit with his breadcrumbs, though.

Unless he was waiting until now to get the pm from the mod with his mod-created fake claim for the flavor, which is why there was a delay in the response.

But he had breadcrumbed all the "badass" flavour in his very first post. Clearly, he had the PM early on. I don't know why he waited so long to claim, but the delay wasn't because he was waiting for his PM...

...*checks thread*

Well, too late, now.

Quick, before the thread is locked, if Percy ever flips scum, I think Kinetic might be a buddy. Having played with him before as scum, he always tries to distance himself from partners and act slightly suspicious of them. I think his "putting Percy on his watch list" is similar. Gah, and I still didn't respond to Percy!

Thor is probably town.

Mina. A lynch > No Lynch

The CMAR wagon had more steam in it, therefore, I voted CMAR for the sake of a lynch.

Bullshit. THEY WERE BOTH IN DEAD HEAT! You and Benmage both voted for the players (so did vezo, but...yeah. Then when I called you on it, you said this:

I have a bigger scumread off of CMAR right now. Raivann can wait until tomorrow.

So in other words, YOU DID CLAIM CMAR WAS SCUMMIER THAN RAIVANN! So now you're backtracking and saying you did suspect Raivann more than CMAR, but voted CMAR to get the lynch? You've just been caught in a lie.

[Mina]

EBWOP: I mean, both CSL and Benmage voted for the players with one-two more votes over the player they actually claimed to suspect. Benmage claimed afterward that it was because he miscalculated the deadline, though.

What I mean about Kinetic is that many scum players seem to suffer from an allergy of stating something positive about a buddy ever. Kinetic tends to do this--express really vague suspicion of a partner to distance. So I think keeping away from Percy's raise wagon is the kind of thing he'd do if they were scumbuddies. Of course, it helps that neither Kinetic nor Migwelloni has made an effort to find scum all game.

Also, I forget, did Mikujin ever explain why he'd jumped right away onto the Richard wagon? I thought his attack of Raivann at the end of the day felt a bit forced (although I'm not sold on Mikujin!scum).

Oh, and MagnaofIllusion, I don't think you ever explained why you found Axelrod reasonable other than his stance on raising!

Percy, I'm curious. What gave you that townread of xvart? You held onto it even after he was inactive for a while. I'm asking because I find xvart hasn't been as townish as he was in the mini. I also find that although he hasn't committed

scumtells

, he doesn't seem to have much passion or conviction. He's just a giant null.

Speaking of which, from way back...

I am against Drippereth having the double vote. I find reading Ellibereth and DrippingGoofball very difficult at the best of times, and have a more solid townread on other players.

Which players were those?

I can't really pin anything on Percy, but I agree with Drippereth and LynchMe that his last couple of posts seemed a little off. (I thought I was just going crazy!) Maybe it's what LynchMe said about his nitpicking over fakeclaims; I also feel on a gut level as though his attacks are a bit forced, he plants seeds of doubt against people, and he softly supports the popular wagons. I've got this feeling from really really good scum before--but also from town players who I know can be really really good scum--in which it's hard to pin down what's wrong, but I don't quite believe that

they'd

believe what they're saying if they were town. But then I reread him again and keep thinking I've imagined it because he sounds so townish. Gah!

It might just be paranoia that we're idiots who handed the scum one fewer lynch to win. But anyway, if there's a second scum team, he's screwed. He'll be night-killed eventually, because they won't want a widely trusted double-voter in endgame--particularly not if he's on the other scumteam.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

I'm satisfied with the CryMeARiver's lynch. His play has been scummy throughout most of the game. If he flips scum, we need to look at the connection by CryMeARiver:

@Raivann: If you are truly a Town Vigilante, shoot vezokpiraka.

I will start reading once Night hits and will tell of my suspects on my first post of Day 2.

[Rifka Viveka]

@Raivann: If you are truly a Town Vigilante, shoot vezokpiraka.

You could try shooting SSBF too, raivann. Seriously, i suggest reading all topics on this then choosing from those suggested instead of ''target this player or die'' mandates

[Mina]

Gah, now I'm not as suspicious of Percy. Come to think of it, xvart was the one whose posts about fakeclaims bothered me the most.

Even if Raivann tries to pull the "I was roleblocked" card for the rest of the game, he guarantees that the

real

vig targets him. Only doubt in my mind is that he could be a serial killer.

Or that he could be a serial killer

and

there be no town vig...?
I'm a bit confused about this. See, you also say:

I'm not sure how likely it is for there to be a full vig AND a one-shot vig.

...so it seems to me that assuming there is a full-power actual-vig (and you seem to, since you warn them not to CC) in the case of Raivann-scum doesn't match up...?

1) Full vig is a terrible claim for scum to make, because not only is it provable, but it ensures that the

real

vig targets him the same night.
2) It's a decent claim for a SK in a pinch.
3) There being a full vig AND a one-shot vengeance vig is not outside the realm of possibility, but kind of redundant and unlikely.
4) Raivann's suspicion of Richard fits with his role.
5) It's very unlikely that Raivann and Richard are on the same scumteam.
6) However,

if

someone out there is a full vigilante, then obviously Raivann is a liar who was dumb enough to claim an easily provable role like vigilante. (Even though you're right that it's unlikely if Richard is telling the truth and is town-aligned). So vig Raivann tonight. If that doesn't work, then counterclaim him tomorrow.

I'm not sure what to think of your Richard/Riavann consideration since my suspicions are flip-flopped from your own (I suspect Richard town and Riav scum) I agree that there is something amiss in that relationship.

It's hard to say who's the scummier, since both have played poorly and done scummy things, but not completely out of character. Also, both were pushed to L-1 really easily. One point against Richard is that Loras hasn't claimed yet. I was reluctant to lynch him today on pure outguess-the-mod, though.

This really bothers me. Right now, I'm thinking CMAR was the most likely to be town of our four wagoned players today. Games on mafiascum are balanced to allow almost no mislynches, and throwing one away like this sucks. I wish CMAR had claimed just ONE DAY earlier, and I wish Thor's post had come before the hammer (I appreciate his effort).

@Mina - what are your thoughts about the movement from Riav to Richard post Riav's claim?

Hmm. I'm not sure, TBH. It's weird that people swung toward him instead of toward Budja, and solely because of his claim.

...Actually, I've just realized something. A while ago, it occurred to me that Raivann and LynchMe might be town because of their votes for Richard, regardless of Richard's alignment. If they were scum and Richard town, then wouldn't they try to avoid lynching him so as not to enable Loras' vig kill? Then I brushed it aside when I realized that they might have been trying to flush out Loras. And if Loras ever died and flipped town, Richard would be confirmed. Besides, Raivann didn't seem like he was thinking that far ahead. (Also, I think I was subconsciously attached to my Raivann case.)

But now I'm thinking that attacking Richard at all is just guaranteed to lead to bad things. I dunno. Do people think that far ahead, or do they just jump on any old convenient wagon? Are two confirmed townies worth more than a one-shot vig kill? Do you think the Richard voters (LynchMe, Rivka, danakillsu, I doubt it) would be more likely to be town?