A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

Presuming we buy that you're really the Vig, why not kill whom town directs?

It's because by following my gut/biggest scum read, I feel that I have the greatest chance of killing a scum. Night 2, I was torn between killing CSL or killing I doubt it. CSL has been scummy, but my gut scum read on I doubt it was stronger. I choose I doubt it because I knew if I left him alive and if I were to be lynched, I doubt it would probably avoid suspicion for awhile, possibly enough to win the game for the Lannister scum team.

If I am not lynched Day 3, on Night 3, if the investigation of hasdgfas indicates that he's scum, I will without any hesistation kill him. if the investigation points at hasdgfas as town, my Night Kill choice will definently be either vezokpiraka or CSL.

How come CSL?

While I don't like vezokpiraka, I think that we're more likely to hit scum in CSL. Granted, if I gain enough support for me to kill vezokpiraka, I will shoot vezokpiraka, but I feel like CSL is a better target. Either way, they're both still good targets so I won't mind killing vezokpiraka either. The only exception to me not killing either CSL or vezokpiraka is if the Day 3 investigation of hasdgfas points to him being scum.

[Macavitar]

About the kill choices, I can kill whoever I want to kill, it is my own choice. That said, I am willing to kill either vezokpiraka or CSL, leaning toward CSL.

No, you won't. You'll kill who town tells you to kill or you'll be lynched. Plain and simple.

First off you are correct … I missed including you. But from my standpoint you aren’t confirmed as are Locke and Thor (as much as anyone can be in a multi-scum environment).

I’m coming around though … especially in light of Muki’s play today that you have been harping on.

I was just teasing.

[Benmage]

I like post 1725.

Unvote

I'm leaning Vezo myself because the claim shenanigans is too much. But you do what you gotta do.

[Benmage]

About the kill choices, I can kill whoever I want to kill, it is my own choice. That said, I am willing to kill either vezokpiraka or CSL, leaning toward CSL.

No, you won't. You'll kill who town tells you to kill or you'll be lynched. Plain and simple.

Easy buddy, aggression where aggression is due. Follow my lead . SSBF already agreed to the list of choices, and cow in the mix dependent on cop thing makes sense.

[diddin]

I guess I'm finally seeing how there's no benefit to lynching SSBF when either we can control his kills on the threat of lynch or he'll be taken care of overnight. Locke I'd suggest a scan of Vezo tonight to end this claim nonsense.

unvote

Not sure who I'm voting today, but I'd follow a CSL or Mikujin lynch.

[Benmage]

Terrible idea to have locke on vezo who will die tonight by SSBF or tomorrow by thor.

Macav or Magna are much better options. But lets let Locke do his thing. (Who will most likely be RB'd regardless, and who I'm hoping is alive tomorrow, gogo doc!)

[Mikujin]

First, let me determine what questions give me information and what questions do not. You don't know my train of thought, so it might be worthwhile to not think you do. Second, pouty scum is pouty. Third, how do you think you would have figured out the need to step forward if you didn't see it in ~20 players posts and didn't read the OP for the day?

First: fair enough.
Second: bzzt, wrong.
Third: as I've had time enough to actually read things over in the past few days (ie. not working 16 hour days again til Saturday) I'd have actually had plenty of time to reread everything. Don't need to now, since you've evidently got this game all figured out now, don't you?

Assuming SSBF is the SK, what incentive is there for him to listen to such ideas? He still doesn't win, because we'll likely lynch him before LYLO, so why not just kill whomever he wants? If he's the SK, why do we let him live to kill someone else (likely a townie), rather than lynch him now to stem the problem at its roots? Just seems counterproductive. That's why I don't like Macavitar's suggestion/said he was too trusting of SSBF.

Translation: "Don't tell SSBF kill my scumbuddy tonight! Not fair guys!"

I'll break it down for you, if SSBF is an SK and we lynch him today, he has a 0% chance of winning. If he's an SK and we let him live on his "vig" claim, which he holds up by killing who the town tells him to kill, he has approximately a 0.0001% chance of winning because he's STILL ALIVE. Which of these numbers is greater Mikujin?

Translation? Please, quit being so pretentious. If I was scum, what incentive do I have to try and push a case on a scumbuddy D1 after being called out for being a lurker? I know you're a hydra now (and two heads certainly seemed more flawed than one in Drip's case), but you should at least read past days and try to remember things like that before making your ridiculous accusations.

If we lynch SSBF now, he's got a 0% chance to win, that I'll agree with. The flaw with the rest of your logic is that you assume he's a vanilla SK, while the potential for him to be scum is still entirely possible. Everyone's calling out that this game must be 4-4-1 or 3-3-1. What about 3-3-3? For all we know the Lannisters/Greyjoys are both on their last legs. I'm not familiar at all with the flavor (as I've expressed several times) so I'm not going to press speculation further than that, but your math is terrible since you can't account for any variables without knowing the setup.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

@Mikujin: Why do you think that a three-scum factions team is more likely? Raivann was considered to be the scummiest person of Day 1, so I took care of him Night 1. I doubt it was killed by me Night 2 due to my gut read of him.

In compairisons, the other Night 1 and Night 2 kills sounds like they came out from the Greyjoy/Lannister's scum factions. Plus I personally think that a 4/4/1 anti-town faction is more likely then a 3/3/3, since I believe the latter would have scum overpower the town. What makes you think that the Night Kills of Raivann/I doubt it would come from a scum, not from a SK/Vigilante?

[Benmage]

3-3-3 Doubtful. Who, Stannis? Doubtful with a Melisandra fakeclaim. Loras flip rules out Highgarden/Renly.

The NK's also don't hint to this. Plus than a scum team could technically be knocked out D2 with all the killing possibilities.

I think 4-4-1 (Maybe 4-4 if we believe SSBF) is right because even tho the anti-town roles may be a bit heavy it is balanced with many evident town PR's and the chance of crosskilling.

[Mikujin]

@Mikujin: Why do you think that a three-scum factions team is more likely? Raivann was considered to be the scummiest person of Day 1, so I took care of him Night 1. I doubt it was killed by me Night 2 due to my gut read of him.

In compairisons, the other Night 1 and Night 2 kills sounds like they came out from the Greyjoy/Lannister's scum factions. Plus I personally think that a 4/4/1 anti-town faction is more likely then a 3/3/3, since I believe the latter would have scum overpower the town. What makes you think that the Night Kills of Raivann/I doubt it would come from a scum, not from a SK/Vigilante?

I never said it was more likely, I said it could be a possibility. The second question is somewhat moot; as I've mentioned, I'm not familiar with flavor, so the poisoning/drowning/hacking to bits doesn't give me any particular hints as to whether it's more likely that there's a third scum faction or a single SK/Vig.

3-3-3 Doubtful. Who, Stannis? Doubtful with a Melisandra fakeclaim. Loras flip rules out Highgarden/Renly.

The NK's also don't hint to this. Plus than a scum team could technically be knocked out D2 with all the killing possibilities.

I think 4-4-1 (Maybe 4-4 if we believe SSBF) is right because even tho the anti-town roles may be a bit heavy it is balanced with many evident town PR's and the chance of crosskilling.

See above statement about my unfamiliarity with the flavor content. I was simply positing that from what we know for certain, it's just as likely SSBF could be doing kills for a third faction as it is he's doing them for his own ends.

[Eddard Stark]

Votecount 3.10 The '

"Bugger that. Bugger him. Bugger you."

' votecount.

Super Smash Bros. Fan (3) -

Unsight, Hasdgfas, Mikujin

Vezokpiraka (1) -

RichardGHP

Unsight (1)

MagnaOfIllusion, Macavitar

Rifka Viveka (1)

Locke Lamora

CSL (1)

xvart

Mikujin (1)

Vezokpiraka

Not Voting (9)-

Mikujin, Axelrod, CSL, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Mina, Thor655, Rifka Viveka, Diddin, Benmage,

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

VC was done quick! Please point out any errors.

Deadline for today is Wednesday August 11th @ 6:30 EST. here

[hasdgfas]

About the kill choices, I can kill whoever I want to kill, it is my own choice. That said, I am willing to kill either vezokpiraka or CSL, leaning toward CSL.

No, you won't. You'll kill who town tells you to kill or you'll be lynched. Plain and simple.

There's no use in a vig if they have no leeway. The Kingsguard discussed that N1 re: Raivann. Give them a list of 2-4, but don't make them kill a certain target, that's just like a second lynch, not a vig.

@Mikujin: Why do you think that a three-scum factions team is more likely?

Raivann was considered to be the scummiest person of Day 1, so I took care of him Night 1.

I doubt it was killed by me Night 2 due to my gut read of him.

That was your reason? Really?

[Axelrod]

So, here's the main thing: if SSBF is Town, this game apparently has no SK (or a SK who has missed/not killed all game?). When was the last time you saw a game this large without a SK role? I could believe 3-3-1 in a game with 26 players. I could even believe 4-4. But 4-4-1 is really too much scum. Town can't win that without lots of crossfire almost regardless of how well they play. (or course, these "votes" that are happening during the day could be considered a Town advantage which might possibly justify a higher than normal amount of scum.)

Regardless, there's no way I believe we have a full Day-vig and also a Night Vig. Now, I was under the impression (for some reason) that Thor was 1-shot, which wouldn't rule out Night Vig., but if Thor is claiming Full repeatable day-vig. then there's just no way. Flavor is not a fit at all for the role, and at least so far I haven't seen anything way out of line with regards to flavor with any other claim/role. This would be a Bastard Mod. role if true. Here, again, someone else with a role that doesn't match the flavor could step forward and say just that much and this point would be null, but I'm just saying I haven't seen it yet.

So, it looks like a SK claim to me. And if that's the case, I think I'd rather eliminate it now, rather than try to keep him "on a leash" as it were. We eliminate a killing "group" and extend the game. Lord help us if we were to try and "direct" his kill, and missed a few times, and then couldn't afford to lynch him because we'd be throwing the game to the mafia. I've seen so many winable games lost due to aggressive vigging plans. There's no need for this when we are ahead. Now is a great time to do away with the SK.

I'm not 100% yet because I'd like to re-read some and that is hard where I am. I kind of thought Arya would have something to do with J.Hagar, but that is apparently not the case. SSBF, does your "flavor" explain why your victims are hacked to pieces?

[Mina]

I should have never belittled LynchMePls's reads. In hindsight, his were five times more accurate than mine.

I'm still undecided on a few things: both whether it's a good idea to leave SSBF alive today and whether I should come forward with all my theories and reasoning (since exposing it will motivate an SK or rival scum into behaving certain ways). If Cow scans as town, I'll have thoughts for him in the QT tonight. For now, I'll ignore SSBF and look elsewhere until we decide what to do with him.

That said, if SSBF is a town-aligned vig, then I'm the Greyjoy godfather.

Did you leave any breadcrumbs?

(By the way, SSBF, if you're Mafia, then you missed the world's easiest fakeclaim. Dude, everyone and their dogs speculated that Arya Stark was somehow linked to Jaq'en H'ghar.)

Right now, my opinions are still wishy-washy, because there are quite a few strong, hard-to-read players left in the game.

Question to people voting or suspecting Mikujin: which team do you think he's on? Because although I dislike his early Day 1 and Day 3 play (his late Day 1-Day 2 play looked quite townish), he was early to both the dana and Raivann wagons. The Raivann attack in particular I see as unlikely to be bussing. His jump onto dana was lukewarm (so I could see Lannister!Mikujin), but still a bit of a premature bus when the SSBF wagon was so viable.

I think MagnaofIllusion did a great job at examining Unsight's and Rifka's links, and I'm reevaluating my opinion that Unsight is an unlikely Greyjoy. (On second thought, Percy might have been trying to call attention to his distancing in the QT. And the Percy-Unsight relationship does fit nicely into the "buddy zone" I mentioned before.) I think Unsight is more likely to be Lannister than Greyjoy-scum, because his interactions with Percy come off as more genuine than those with dana, and because I hate how he needed to be prodded into commenting on dana, and then felt the need to give a long explanation claiming that he'd always found dana scummy, and his reasons for waiting to vote were totally legitimate!

But after ISO-ing him, I really don't have a scum read on Unsight. Even though I disagree with a lot of what he says, he's just very cranky and abrupt and unconcerned with others' opinions. Ugh, why can't I stop listening to my gut this game, even though it keeps leading me off a cliff?

I like the case for Rifka being a Lannister, although she's done a couple of things that ring townish.

Now I need to look at Macavitar and xvart...and decide if CSL still makes sense as a Greyjoy.

Oh, and I've done a complete 180 on Benmage. Not just because of his interactions with dead scum, but because rereading his late Day Two play, his contribution is a lot more balls-to-the-wall and substantial than I remembered at the time (and I think part of why I thought he was filling the thread with noise was just because I was struggling to catch up.) I'm not sure if Benmage still wants me to answer his questions from then, in case he wants to get a better read on me.

More coming in my next post.

[hasdgfas]

Question to people voting or suspecting Mikujin: which team do you think he's on?

Mikujin(look at his reaction to Locke's softclaim.)

[Unsight]

I don't buy SSBF's claim.

In one of the two games I've been mafia, I claimed vig and two mafia kills as mine and held it until the end. I'm certainly not going to fall for my own trick.

[Unsight]

My only alignment is Town (or Innocent as my role pm puts it) so your vote on me is catching no scum.

What is the purpose of this statement? Should we just take your word for it? And why go out of the way to claim Innocent when you have exactly 1 vote on you (at the time you made this post)?

Exactly what it appears to be and yes. You've come at me twice with misplaced suspicion and exceedingly poor logic only to basically ignore my responses. I'm pretty sure by now you've stopped actually listening to anything I have to say so I'm not sure what else I can say.

[diddin]

Unsight, he's claiming possession of a kill flavour that has killed a member of both scum groups- I'm doubting the existence of SSBF-scum from that. If he doesn't actually have the kill flavour, he'll die tonight anyways.

I really can't see anymore alignments as we already have flips from Lannisters and Greyjoys, and people on the North, Stannis, and Renly alignments have flipped innocent.

[vezokpiraka]

Unsight comes in and makes a terrible statement.
She is scum trying to get the SK out of her plans.

Unvote
Vote unsight

[RichardGHP]

Wow... haven't made a post since Monday. How the hell have I not been prodded?

Unvote

I would be OK with an Unsight lynch, I think. I'll think about it some more and vote later tonight or tomorrow.

[Macavitar]

Question to people voting or suspecting Mikujin: which team do you think he's on? Because although I dislike his early Day 1 and Day 3 play (his late Day 1-Day 2 play looked quite townish), he was early to both the dana and Raivann wagons. The Raivann attack in particular I see as unlikely to be bussing. His jump onto dana was lukewarm (so I could see Lannister!Mikujin), but still a bit of a premature bus when the SSBF wagon was so viable.

I personally am leaning Lannister on him. Also, voting scum =/= auto-town. I really wish people on MS would get that notion out of their heads. Town lose so damn often because "scum would never bus their buddies like that." It's a fallacy. Any player worth their salt is willing to throw a worthless buddy under the bus early and ride the points to endgame. Don't make me make a Sotty reference here.

This weekend is going to be rather busy for me IRL. I'll try to get in here when I can, but no promises of giant posts before monday.

[Locke Lamora]

SSBF lives, and kills one of those 3 players. That's my call. Both scumteams are 2 members down and if there's scum amongst those 3, they can't afford to have a third eliminated on N3. If Cow's town we'll find out, and if Vezo and/or CSL are town, I don't think anyone's particularly bothered about the loss. It'll also take away one of two easy players for the scum to target if they are town. I think it'll create useful uncertainty for the scum, whether he's vig, SK, or third scumteam member (I think the latter is very unlikely, but the scum will know how much so). I'm really not concerned about an SSBF-SK win at this stage.

SSBF: you didn't say whether you'd read the books or not.

Rifka: you didn't really answer my question. You lit a candle for yourself, Magna ignored it. If Magna had made reference to it, or lit his own candle for you, or called it scummy, would that have given you a town read? Do you think Magna's more likely to be scum because he didn't take that opportunity to push an attack on you?

[Mina]

Um...okay. Those last posts by Unsight are helping to remedy that lack of a scum read.

Wow... haven't made a post since Monday. How the hell have I not been prodded?

Because you're invisible. Now that you're confirmed, we don't have to read your posts anymore. So you get to sit in the corner and look pretty for the rest of the game. It's awesome. You could claim scum and I wouldn't notice.

Hey, Axelrod! I've got a question for you. A couple, actually.

When I complained about the people suggesting that Percy step forward, you said this:

There is no evidence implying that Percy is scum.

Well, that's not exactly true either. There's certainly nothing blatant though.

I think your only interaction with Percy was to agree with his read on Hayker and danakillsu. You never mentioned anything negative about him before then.

What evidence in particular were you thinking of (that wasn't blatant, but that was enough for you to want to scan him)?

Also, in response to this:

Still waiting for SSBF to claim or do anything useful. Got a few niggles here and there on other people, but not a lot of time to do anything with them.

Please elaborate on these niggles.

Axelrod, if we decide not to lynch SSBF today, then who would you like to lynch instead?

Because most of your posts in this game are commenting on safe topics (even though you execute them all with wide-eyed sincerity). And because I've just noticed something that I hadn't before (and which would have affected my read of you). Your join date is 2005.

[Rifka Viveka]

Rifka: you didn't really answer my question. You lit a candle for yourself, Magna ignored it. If Magna had made reference to it, or lit his own candle for you, or called it scummy, would that have given you a town read? Do you think Magna's more likely to be scum because he didn't take that opportunity to push an attack on you?

Ive been arguing with magna for awhile now, and i really dont get the feeling of an inquisitive, probing player attempting to discern my alignment, but someone just looking for cheap debate shots. He said he was interested in investigating me, then totally ignored it so that makes me wonder if he was really interested at all. His action there wouldnt be definitive of alignment one way or another, but its fits his pattern of behavior. Now he is going to storm in here and say im ignoring him, but im not really sure what there is to say on that front. I wrote a reply in notepad he can have when he demands but imo this is starting to clutter

Im up for an unsight, mikujin lynch right now. gut scum reads. ive come around to thinking the best option is leaving SSBF alive

[CSL]

Gonna reread tonight. If I don't have a response by midnight, lynch me.