(EBWOPreview: I'll respond to Thor in a bit.)
Magna, any response to Mac's calling you on going from "No one put anyone at more than four votes!" to "Let me put Axelrod to L-1"? I mean, considering you think he's town and all, he probably deserves an answer.
Also, didn't you say on D4 that you thought diddin
wasn't
a Lannister (for the same reason you'd thought MacavityLock wasn't one--you didn't believe all four of them were on the Richard mob)?
MagnaofIllusion wrote:Mina wrote:So is that your plan if ML is lynched today, Magna? Lynch CSL and Unsight, then leave me and Richard until LYLO and try to get one of us to lynch the other. You may just have a chance.
My plan? Well my plan is to lynch the remaining scum. Glad you decided to post what amounts to far-fetched nonsense in an a further back-handed attempt to smear me.
When you have all these ‘tells’ and are read to post them so I can actually make an argument against facts instead of innuendo I’m ready.
Yes, I was being a teensy bit hyperbolic, and I know that my gut sucks (after all, I'd thought Cow's reaction on D3 looked scummy too)...but the tone for this is all wrong. All, all wrong. Come on. "Smearing you"?
Now that I've gone from "Game over, scum caught" to "oh shit, did MacavityLock just decide to play his role in the worst possible way?", I'm planning to do a bit of partnership analysis later. Most of your Day One posts were eaten. I see you'd unvoted Mikujin on D1, but I can't even find why you'd voted him in the first place. I'll need to check the archives and see your early interactions with Percy, Miku, and.
But tells aren't damning. Tells are little things that niggle at me, that suggest you aren't seeing the game from the POV of an uninformed minority, or conclusions that shouldn't be obvious to someone without extra information (like Percy knowing that the julienvonwolfe kill wasn't his own).
I already mentioned that you and Percy came to the same conclusion about Greyjoys being early on the dana wagon. Now that Mikujin has flipped, it turns out it wasn't an evil scheme to lead us away from the real Greyjoys, but it still smacks of too much of a coincidence...particularly you never gave a good reason for why you thought the best place to look was on the early dana wagon and not on the early SSBF wagon when both should be equivalent to a Greyjoy.
Another one is both you AND Mikujin try to push the theory that we're not in a 4-4-1 on D4.
And finally:
With both xvart and benmage flipping blocking roles (Roleblocker and JK) you think that the Greyjoys have a third blocking style role? I’m not saying it is out of the question but that seems to be a little heavily weighted IMO.
It doesn't seem like an obvious conclusion at all. I know I'd assumed the teams were symmetrical after two godfather and two goon flips. What's wrong with multiple blocking roles when one of them is town-aligned? After Mikujin's Watcher flip, I think that the scum teams are asymmetrical. So it looks like you knew the Greyjoys didn't have a roleblocker.
and this:
I think you are overthinking the flavor element of the flips. Unlike a Mini I don’t think that scum have individual kill flavors. I find it unlikely that a single Lannister or Greyjoy has made every faction kill to this point in the game.
This is starting to look more likely after the fourth poisoning and third drowning in a row.
But anyway, now you've thoughtfully given me another tell.
MagnaofIllusion wrote:Mina wrote:If Mikujin is a Watcher, then killing Locke guarantees that you lose the game tomorrow. Mikujin had obviously watched Locke on N3, and would watch him again on N4.
So you are saying that Miku would be watching Locke to make sure that he saw his own partner kill Locke on the off chance of a doubled up kill would net the other scum?
Here you are. You're thinking like a Greyjoy.
See the game from the perspective of either a townie or a Lannister-aligned player, who has no idea that Mikujin is a Greyjoy.
I have no clue who Mikujin really watched last night. That's completely irrelevant to the point I was making. But do you deny that he
hadn't
watched Locke on N3, given his behaviour? Do you deny that the obvious target for a watcher, after a doctor had just died, would be the cop again on N4?
Now, imagine that you're a killer.
Who do you think the town-aligned Watcher who'd watched Locke last night is going to watch
this night
?
Mina wrote:And killing a confirmed player would've been an even worse move. Mikujin won't be any less dead on N5. That would give Locke not one, but two extra investigations. The watcher had to die, especially since the Lannister roleblocker was dead.
If the Lannisters were afraid of Locke they would have killed him last Night. A name cop is a death sentence to scum with both Godfathers dead. You are stating the a weak information role (Watcher) was more deadly to the last Lannister than a strong information role (Name Cop). I disagree wholeheartedly.
The lack of attack on Locke by the Lannisters clearly indicates the last Lannister didn’t have any fear of being Name Copped.
A Watcher is a ridiculously overpowered role in the hands of town. In fact, there are MD topics protesting that the role should be banned because it doesn't involve any scumhunting. (You just park yourself on a claimed cop or obvtownie and automatically catch scum.)
But you're missing my point.
I'm sure the last Lannister was really annoyed to have left Locke alive. He was probably crossing his fingers that the Greyjoys had a roleblocker or would do his dirty work for him.
But letting Locke live (assuming that he wouldn't investigate Thor, Richard, Cow, diddin, or even Mikujin) gives him a one in five chance of catching you, a two in five chance of catching a Greyjoy (assuming you don't think
Mikujin
is a Greyjoy), and a two in five chance of clearing a suspect.
BUT IF THE WATCHER SEES THAT YOU'RE THE ONLY PERSON WHO TARGETS LOCKE ON THE NIGHT LOCKE DIES, YOU LOSE! GAME OVER! NO HOPE!
Yes, leaving the cop alive would suck. But if you're the last member of your faction and you kill Locke, who is being watched,
you guarantee that you lose the game
.
Yes, I know this is just proving that I'd have killed Mikujin had I been a Lannister--and I
would
have. But I think any reasonable person who'd caught Mikujin would have behaved the same way.
diddin, MacavityLock, CSL, Richard, MoI, Thor, and Unsight.
Answer this honestly. Did you figure out that Mikujin was a watcher (and not some other "weak" information role) on D3? Maybe I'm biased, because I knew about the tracker, so he had to be the watcher by process of elimination. But come on. "I've been keeping an eye on a few people"?
