A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[CSL]

The 26th, or the Saturday closest to the 26th.

3 weeks from August 28th.

[Eddard Stark]

Sorry lost net access and my fucking laptop. Brb with a votecount.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote count 5.6 - The "Fear cuts deeper than swords" votecount.

Macavitar (4) -

Hasdgfas,CSL,Unsight,diddin

Unsight (1) -

MagnaofIllusion

MagnaofIllusion (1) -

Macavitar

Not voting (3) - Thor665, Mina, RichardGHP

Mina has been prodded.

With 9 alive it takes 5 lynch.
Deadline will hit on the 18th of September @ 6pm ES(D?)T.

[hasdgfas]

I love how Mina is the center of this game's universe.

You have no idea

[Mina]

This town revolves around me! MWAHAHAHAHA!

(Somehow, I'm not sure that's a good thing.)

Happy Rosh Hashanah, MacavityLock. Except my grandmother is Moroccan, so we had couscous instead of kugel last night. Tonight will be more Eastern European fare.

No restrictions other than it should be believable, and unlikely to be counter-claimed, and fit with the roles in the game. Basically, a claim that would work as an alibi were you tracked to a nightkill.

Haha, the "hey, diddin" was because my last post was a work in progress on my phone browser over a full day. I'd planned on asking you questions, but ended up leaving them for later....

So hey, diddin. Here's what I wanted to ask you.

Why didn't you mention all those times that Benmage spoke to Macavitar in his ISO?

Every time someone brought it up, you went out of your way to ignore it. Do you still think it's unlikely that Benmage jailkept Macavitar?

To be honest, probably what's giving me the most second thoughts about the Mac lynch (other than his having prepared a PM for a rather unique fakeclaim--if for a role that I have no clue why Faraday would have bothered to include in the game--in advance) is that you seem to go out of your way to look as much like the last Lannister as possible.

Your answer for who the last Lannister might be if it wasn't Macavitar is "gee, I'd have to reread"--which is a HUGE cop-out. Your list of Greyjoy suspects is

everyone

who hasn't been cleared other than me...who you think shouldn't claim so as to leave my role hanging over the scums' heads (which gives you a few town points), but whom you haven't said you suspect or don't suspect. You don't seem to have any doubt, or even consider the possibility of Mac being town. (To be fair, neither does Unsight.)

I know you said you wanted to wait until Mac's flip to make up your mind? Well, guess what. Mac might not flip unless you do some scumhunting now.

[Mina]

By the way, a question neither Unsight nor CSL answered:

@ Mina: That statement meant, to me anyways, that he was scum trying to be town, and got killed for it. If this does not make sense, I'll try to re-word it.

What? Are you saying you

knew

Mikujin was scum?

Maybe you misunderstood my question. When Mikujin pulled his whole "I don't think Locke will have anything to reveal, because ha ha ha, I just might have been keeping an

eye

on him" shtick, did you know he was a power role? Did you think he was a watcher?

[CSL]

No, I wasn't trying to say it. I don't even know who's Greyjoy or Lannister.

I do not think he is a power role, nor did I ever. If he is one, then that's an obvious breadcrumb.

[Mina]

Um...

CSL, we're talking about Mikujin.

Who's dead.

And has been proven to be a power role (albeit a scum one).

What I'm saying is, did it occur to you, based on his hints, that he might be a watcher or investigative role?

Did you suspect Mikujin yesterday? Did you think he looked townish or scummish?

[Macavitar]

No restrictions other than it should be believable, and unlikely to be counter-claimed, and fit with the roles in the game. Basically, a claim that would work as an alibi were you tracked to a nightkill.

In this alternate world where I am Lanny scum and did kill Miku last night, do I have access to any fake name(s) I can work with?

----

I do not think he is a power role, nor did I ever. If he is one, then that's an obvious breadcrumb.

Well, Miku has flipped; he was a Greyjoy Watcher. So, what the hell are you talking about?

Preview edit: Ninja'd on CSL's... issues.

[diddin]

@Mina: I missed it skimming over. Besides, Benmage pushed on Unsight so hard D3 that I have a strong feeling he jailed Unsight that night.

[Mina]

*sigh*

I wasn't

that

picky, but...

Fine. You, xvart, I doubt it, and danakillsu were given four fakeclaims: Catelyn Stark, Brynden Tully, Margaery Tyrell, and Ser Rodrik Cassel. Unfortunately, danakillsu used up one of them on Brynden.

Also, maybe I shouldn't confuse CSL by asking him even

more

questions, but who were you talking about when you said you don't think "he" has a role? Clearly it wasn't Mikujin.

diddin...yeah. I do think Unsight would have been the obvious choice for jailkeeping. Benmage

did

suggest Macavitar as a good namecop choice. But jailing him would have been poor play with two killers left per team.

But could you get back to me on your suspects?

[diddin]

*sigh*

I wasn't

that

picky, but...

Fine. You, xvart, I doubt it, and danakillsu were given four fakeclaims: Catelyn Stark, Brynden Tully, Margaery Tyrell, and Ser Rodrik Cassel. Unfortunately, danakillsu used up one of them on Brynden.

Also, maybe I shouldn't confuse CSL by asking him even

more

questions, but who were you talking about when you said you don't think "he" has a role? Clearly it wasn't Mikujin.

diddin...yeah. I do think Unsight would have been the obvious choice for jailkeeping. Benmage

did

suggest Macavitar as a good namecop choice. But jailing him would have been poor play with two killers left per team.

But could you get back to me on your suspects?

Where the hell did you get the other two from?

[CSL]

Yeah. Consider my words in past tense. Sorry for the wrong grammar.

[Mina]

From my role PM,

duh

.

Seriously, I just chose two random character names so as to recreate the effect of making a fakeclaim. (Rodrik was actually my fakeclaim in the mini.) Where do you

think

I got them?

So CSL, you're saying you didn't suspect Mikujin before his flip?

[Unsight]

By the way, a question neither Unsight nor CSL answered:

@ Mina: That statement meant, to me anyways, that he was scum trying to be town, and got killed for it. If this does not make sense, I'll try to re-word it.

What? Are you saying you

knew

Mikujin was scum?

Maybe you misunderstood my question. When Mikujin pulled his whole "I don't think Locke will have anything to reveal, because ha ha ha, I just might have been keeping an

eye

on him" shtick, did you know he was a power role? Did you think he was a watcher?

I'm so glad you're pointing out that I never answered a question that wasn't directed to me.

Mina 2232: CSL did you know Miku was a power role? Did you think he was a watcher?
CSL: *doesn't answer*
Mina 2305: Look, Unsight and CSL didn't answer this question.
Unsight 2314: O.o

Anyway, a breadcrumb like that looks more like tracker to me. Watcher would have information on the target but not on the target's actions. In hindsight, it would be pretty bizarre for a town tracker to be following Locke though.

[CSL]

Never really paid much attention to him.

[Mina]

Not that it really matters, but I did ask you that question, Unsight.

Hey, Unsight. You never answered this question:

diddin, MacavityLock, CSL, Richard, MoI, Thor, and Unsight.

Answer this honestly. Did you figure out that Mikujin was a watcher (and not some other "weak" information role) on D3? Maybe I'm biased, because I knew about the tracker, so he had to be the watcher by process of elimination. But come on. "I've been keeping an eye on a few people"?

Actually I did, in post 2182.

@Mina : I don't know. Could have been a gambit for all we know. In one game (off mafiascum.net), I called someone out on being scum on the last day of the game as a VT and they threw in the towel. Imagine their surprise post-game! So I try not to judge things too quickly. Still, I could hear the proverbial "You've fallen for my trap card" when Cow name-claimed.

You'd answered my question about Cow's claim, but not about Mikujin's. I only bothered to quote my question to CSL because it was pretty much the same thing.

By the way, CSL is 100% confirmed not-Lannister. Remember this after my death.

Seriously. If there's one person we can guarantee wouldn't have picked up on Mikujin's softclaim AND been crafty enough to have lied about it (aside from the late vezokpiraka), it's CSL.

Don't think we can take this far enough to say he isn't a Greyjoy (because he didn't realize his buddy was a watcher), though. There might be some cognitive dissonance going on.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Mod

– I highly doubt that in 2302 I have suddenly acquired 20 bonus votes. Either that or Unsight is lynched 4 times over.

I love how Mina is the center of this game's universe.

Despite the snarkiness I can understand where this is coming from. Besides Richard the two closest things to confirmed Town we have are Cow (100% confirmed) and Thor (mostly confirmed by proven Dayvig ability). I really am surprised that these two aren’t leading the discussion today.

-You realize that there's a huge gap between your explanation for Unsight's motivations if he's a Greyjoy and if he's some other alignment? You show that his behaviour is optimal for a Lannister and town...but a Greyjoy would behave that way if he thought he could survive three lynches. Do you really think that you, me, AND CSL would be lynched before him? (Mind you, now I'm second-guessing myself and coming up with explanations for his behaviour...but I'll keep them to myself for now.)

Yes I realize what you are suggesting. Let me ask you – why don’t you think it is a reasonable assumption from Unsight (as a Greyjoy) to make.

You don’t think he’s a Greyjoy. Since he was wagonned to claiming two days ago when Rifka got mislynched in his place at deadline the only person who has even looked twice at him is me. Sitting in his shoes I would realistically think I’m not a likely lynch.

And your surviving three lynches scenario is predicated, of course, on a scum lynch today. If Mac flips Town then barring a cross-kill Town only has 2 likely lynches to hit both scum.

On the subject of claims we know at least three fake-claims for scum – Raivann’s (Beric Dondarrion) , Percy’s (Lady Melisandre of Asshai) and SSBF’s (Arya Stark).

For those flavour savvy

– how significant are these characters in the book? And how does Ser Davos Seaworth compare significance wise?

Why exactly can't Unsight be a Lannister? ….. Weren't you the one who said he fit as one before? (You just hadn't reread him because you were so sure he was scum already.)

I can’t be 100% sure he’s not a Lannister. I did say he could likely be either when I did my relationship analysis back on Day 3. I should go back and look at him fresh since we have had two more flips. I guess I probably have time to do that before the Day ends.

No, you have been pretty consistent in stating that you don't think that I'm scum. With everyone else either thinking I'm likely scum, or at least wavering back and forth, your stance seems out of place. This is why I'm thinking that you might be exhibiting the whole cognitive dissonance thing I'm talking about. However, I can admit that this may be the everyone-thinking-I'm-scum paranoia setting in.

I don’t think you are using Cognitive Dissonance correctly here Mac. CD is when a player’s actions directly conflict with their stated opinions. If I said I thought you were Town but then hammered you when others (CSL, etc) were anxious to ‘move the day along’ that would be Cognitive Dissonance. Cognitive Dissonance isn’t having an opinion that is contrary to what’s ‘popular’. And I think you are overstating the fact that I am the only one who thinks you are Town. Thor also seems to be thinking in a similar line to me – that your claim is too detailed and fragile to be a fake-claim. Additionally Richard’s role connection with JVW where JVW’s role was provided in Richard’s role PM also provided the other bit I chewed that made me think you aren’t fake-claiming.

By the way, I'd still like to know what you would have done if CMAR hadn't claimed the BP-shot notification thing.

I’d have outright called it a fake-claim based on the notification tid-bit. That said at that point the realization that scum likely have some sort of mod provided fake-claims wasn’t evident until Raivann flipped.

[hasdgfas]

aaaaaaagh

unvote

This is frustrating, because mac

feels

genuine. I just have no idea who a better choice is.....

[Thor665]

Despite the snarkiness I can understand where this is coming from. Besides Richard the two closest things to confirmed Town we have are Cow (100% confirmed) and Thor (mostly confirmed by proven Dayvig ability). I really am surprised that these two aren’t leading the discussion today.

That's actually probably a good point. I've just been being lazy - though I will note every time I ask a fluff question I never really get an answer - so at all of you.

@hasdafohasdldf

The only other player I'd want to lynch is Unsight - but I've had gut scum on both of them (Unsight and Mac) for a while and the targeting of a NK target is pretty damning to my mind for Mac. I actually don't feel the genuine energy you and Mina seem to get from him, to my mind the only thing clearing him is if you think he got roleblocked the night he targeted you. There's a certain scum risk to making that claim the way he did since there was a limited number of name claims left to reveal at that point. The problem is that I tend to play better games early on when there's less info available as I've noticed I have a bad habit of going into WIFOM tailspins since I love the idea of double and triple plays.

The real question for Macavitar as I see it is this;

If he's scum then he decided to go with a fake claim that he personally made up instead of a safe claim that was mod provided.
If he's town then it's a little hard to figure out who roleblocked him and why (I'm terrible at looking for breadcrumbs, but I did look and didn't really see any suggestion that he was tagged by Ben or xvart)

Does everyone else agree with the fluff logic Locke used to clear diddin? We're certain diddin has claimed his actual role name but I'd love to hear more fluff consideration as to the relevancy of the clearing since if we can agree it's not a scum name then we can mark him off our suspect pool and if we disagree then he should be added to it.

[Macavitar]

Fine. You, xvart, I doubt it, and danakillsu were given four fakeclaims: Catelyn Stark, Brynden Tully, Margaery Tyrell, and Ser Rodrik Cassel. Unfortunately, danakillsu used up one of them on Brynden.

Yeah, we've all name claimed at this point, so I just wanted to know how limited you wanted me to be. For example, I was starting to riff on Roose Bolton, but I'll limit myself to those that you gave me. I'm pretty sure I'm close to something for you, and expect to have it sorted tomorrow (RL).

----

On the subject of claims we know at least three fake-claims for scum – Raivann’s (Beric Dondarrion) , Percy’s (Lady Melisandre of Asshai) and SSBF’s (Arya Stark).

For those flavour savvy

– how significant are these characters in the book? And how does Ser Davos Seaworth compare significance wise?

Don't forget Brynden Tully, dana's fake claim. Arya is a

major

character. She has POV chapters in all of the books so far, including ACoK. Davos is more minor, but he does have POV chapters in ACoK. (I'm not remembering exactly, but I think that's the only book he is in at all.) The other 3 (Beric, Meli, and Brynden) are all more minor, don't have POV chapters, but are all memorable/important characters. There are others who have flipped (Yoren, Meera) who I would consider even more minor than those 3 fake claims.

Does everyone else agree with the fluff logic Locke used to clear diddin? We're certain diddin has claimed his actual role name but I'd love to hear more fluff consideration as to the relevancy of the clearing since if we can agree it's not a scum name then we can mark him off our suspect pool and if we disagree then he should be added to it.

In my mind, based on the confirmed name claim of Sandor, diddin is pretty much 100% clear of being Greyjoy. Unless I'm forgetting something, Sandor has absolutely nothing to do with Greyjoys in the books. However, he did work directly with the Lannisters, and thus his claim makes it possible/plausible/likely that he's Lannister. Note also that Sandor was a scum name in the mini. However however, this on its own is not proof of anything, as Theon Greyjoy was town in the mini. (And I was he!)

----

I don’t think you are using Cognitive Dissonance correctly here Mac. CD is when a player’s actions directly conflict with their stated opinions. If I said I thought you were Town but then hammered you when others (CSL, etc) were anxious to ‘move the day along’ that would be Cognitive Dissonance. Cognitive Dissonance isn’t having an opinion that is contrary to what’s ‘popular’. And I think you are overstating the fact that I am the only one who thinks you are Town. Thor also seems to be thinking in a similar line to me – that your claim is too detailed and fragile to be a fake-claim. Additionally Richard’s role connection with JVW where JVW’s role was provided in Richard’s role PM also provided the other bit I chewed that made me think you aren’t fake-claiming.

Whatever, I don't care if I'm using the term exactly correctly. My point is that person X (who is scum) might actually think person Y is scum of the other team, but not say so in thread and not vote that way, so as to protect them.

By the way, I'd still like to know what you would have done if CMAR hadn't claimed the BP-shot notification thing.

I’d have outright called it a fake-claim based on the notification tid-bit. That said at that point the realization that scum likely have some sort of mod provided fake-claims wasn’t evident until Raivann flipped.

And how would you know that the mods wouldn't have changed that between games?

----

The real question for Macavitar as I see it is this;

If he's scum then he decided to go with a fake claim that he personally made up instead of a safe claim that was mod provided.
If he's town then it's a little hard to figure out who roleblocked him and why (I'm terrible at looking for breadcrumbs, but I did look and didn't really see any suggestion that he was tagged by Ben or xvart)

Is there a question there?

[Thor665]

The real question for *determining if we should lynch* Macavitar as I see it is this;

So the answer is yes, but it's not a question directed at you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Whatever, I don't care if I'm using the term exactly correctly. My point is that person X (who is scum) might actually think person Y is scum of the other team, but not say so in thread and not vote that way, so as to protect them.

So at this point your ‘scum-tell’ would apply to anyone non-confirmed who didn’t suspect someone else of being scum. Should CSL suspect that I am scum because I don’t think he’s scum?

And how would you know that the mods wouldn't have changed that between games?

I didn’t know for certain until after CMAR’s flip and his confirmation of the mechanic. But I think in general that Mods have a level of consistency in how they run things. Are you claiming it’s a scum-tell?

@MOD

– I’ll be V/LA as usual until Monday for my regular weekend family duties.

[Macavitar]

Attention: This is a fake claim. My real claim is Catelyn Stark - Mason Recruiter. This claim exists only for Mina's hypothetical alternate world, wherein I am Lannister scum and killed Mikujin last night. Repeat: This is a fake claim.

I am Margaery Tyrell - Motivator. Each night, I can target a player. The

following

night, that player will have the opportunity to use his or her ability twice. I targeted the following players with this ability:
N1 - No one
N2 - No one
N3 - Locke
N4 - Mikujin

"Hey ML, do you have flavor?"

But of course. Margaery is the only daughter of Mace Tyrell, Lord of Highgarden, Defender of the Marches, High Marshal of the Reach, and Warden of the South. A beautiful, charismatic, and intelligent young woman, she is not only the key to winning over the powerful Tyrell family and all of their bannermen, she is also a prize in her own right.

"How about flavor for your ability?"

Everybody loves Margaery, everybody wants her to love them back, so they'll always put forth that extra effort to impress her in any way they can.

"Why does the Motivation take place the following Night, not the Night that you use it?"

Well, you'd have to ask the Mods that, but I figure it's so that everyone has the same amount of time to use their Night abilities. If it were the same Night, then if I choose my Motivation target after 70 hours, my target has to rush to choose their second ability use in the last 2 hours before Day begins. So, it's probably a balance thing.

"Why didn't you target anybody on N1 or 2?"

I didn't feel that I could be 100% confident in my town reads.

"But couldn't you have used the Motivation kind of like a Cop? 2 kills in a night would have found scum, while only 1 kill would have likely cleared someone."

Well, before the morning of Day 2, I didn't know how kill flavor would work in this game, so the thought didn't even cross my mind. Over Night 2, I considered it, but given that the extra kill would happen over Night 3 (with a much more unknown setup situation than right then, Night 2), and I'd have to be alive on Day 4 to report on it, I decided it was too risky to give out to just anybody, and hope that they weren't scum.

"Why did you choose Miku over Locke on Night 4?"

Well, I decided that it was highly unlikely that fully-claimed namecop Locke would survive to Day 6 to get use out of that Motivation. Given the softer claim, I decided that there was more of a chance that Miku would survive.

"So, you targeted Locke over Night 3, the same time that Miku Watched him. Why didn't he report that along with the rest of his soft-claim?"

My only guess is that he made his soft-claim in part to let me know that he saw me target Locke too. So, he probably thought I was a Doc or something, and probably wanted to get me to target him next.

This has been a fake claim. Any questions?

[Macavitar]

Whatever, I don't care if I'm using the term exactly correctly. My point is that person X (who is scum) might actually think person Y is scum of the other team, but not say so in thread and not vote that way, so as to protect them.

So at this point your ‘scum-tell’ would apply to anyone non-confirmed who didn’t suspect someone else of being scum. Should CSL suspect that I am scum because I don’t think he’s scum?

No, my point is that people should look out for people acting weird, weirder than scum would normally act. In this game, the scum clearly had the ability and desire to scumhunt for those of the opposing scum team. Right now, they probably no longer do, and probably want to specifically hunt town as opposed to just anybody not on their scumteam. And that's something that people

can

keep an eye out for.

And how would you know that the mods wouldn't have changed that between games?

I didn’t know for certain until after CMAR’s flip and his confirmation of the mechanic. But I think in general that Mods have a level of consistency in how they run things. Are you claiming it’s a scum-tell?

Yes, I have a problem with you saying that you were willing to out-right call something a fake claim because of the structure of a role PM

in a different game

. Either it's using bad logic to call someone obv-scum, or you knew it was a flawed question at the time and you asked a question just to say that you were scumhunting, and have to cover for it now. And I don't like either of those things.