A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[diddin]

The fuck am I doing? I thought there were 5 left for some reason. derp.

Vote: No Lynch

Town and especially CSL fail so hard for not lynching Mac WITH A MISLYNCH.

[Macavitar]

Damn Magna, and I was on you all game, only to second-guess myself on that last day. Grr at CSL.

So Magna, no choice but to make an offer of a joint win: No Lynch just happened, so we night kill diddin, you night kill Thor. If we buck, that's a town win. So let's not buck, shall we?

[diddin]

I still can't believe we didn't lynch mac. He was obv scum. I'm gonna love reading the dead QT for this game.

Also, I WAS RIGHT YOU SONS OF BITCHESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS BUT NOBODY LISTENED TO ME

[RichardGHP]

The dead QT is EXTREMELY long. Just a heads up.

[diddin]

IT'S RENLEY'S GHOST OH MY GODS

[Macavitar]

Yeah, have to give you props diddin. You had us nailed early. The whole time I was worried the town was going to take you and Unsight's side, but thankfully CSL distracted most everyone else.

[Thor665]

@Richard - is it a lot of swearing and a bunch of "oh my gawd, it's so obvious, why is town throwing this away!?!" I have noticed a certain trend in how accurate and sure people's scumtells become in the dead topic

@Mac - I just have to know - fakeclaim or did you invent it yourself?

Also, wouldn't the scum who killed the other scum achieve total victory?

[RichardGHP]

Not so much swearing, but yes, a lot of "OMG ITS OBVIOUS TOWN ARE LOLSTUPID".

[Macavitar]

@Mac - I just have to know - fakeclaim or did you invent it yourself?

Role was invented on my own, in an hour. Fake name of Catelyn was provided. More detailed notes, if anyone cares, will come post game.

Also, wouldn't the scum who killed the other scum achieve total victory?

Yes, but if both defect, then we both lose. So, Magna, NEITHER OF US SHOULD DEFECT!

[Thor665]

Ah, okay, I just thought in prisoner's dilemma the optimal strategy was to "defect",

[Macavitar]

Actually, in Prisoner's Dilemma, defecting = losing. I mean, I understand why you are pushing that because you're trying to use psychology and earn a town victory, but it's a little simplistic. Magna most likely realizes that the best we can do in this situation is get a draw for scum, and that is a victory in some ways considering how much the town benefited in this game from the setup at times. Us killing each other tonight is dumb considering how hard both of us had to fight just to get here.

The only way we'd consider taking Magna out of the game today is if you and diddin decided you guys wanted to award one of us victory by lynching the other. If that's the case, then we'll both have to make a case as to why we think we're both more deserving of a victory. However, if you guys want to stick to no lynching, then the only obvious choice is for each one of us to kill one of you and take the draw.

-VP

[Thor665]

Actually, in Prisoner's Dilemma, defecting = losing.

No, defecting = achieving the greatest possible gain for the prisoner.

Right at the moment scum are in a choice of kill town or kill other scum. If only one of you kills the other scum then that scum will have victory, so optimal strategy is to convince the other scum to go for the draw and then to kill that scum for victory.

[Macavitar]

Since we're both in the same situation, if we both think that, then we both lose, rather than both winning. The Prisoner's Dilemma is one of the example games where the stable (Nash) equilibrium is decidedly not the optimal solution.

The offer has been made, and that's that.

[Thor665]

If you really feel 'that's that' then why haven't you sent us into no lynch yet?

You're clearly waiting around to try to help sell MoI on your idea to try to ensure cooperation. If it's so cut and dry why does that need to happen?

[Macavitar]

Well, obv we need to hear from him. I'm saying that from a win perspective for scum, yes it is cut and dry. However, people do get greedy and I want to hear his opinion. I think MoI is reasonable enough to see that a shared victory in this sense is a good plan, but we don't need to rush anything. Town has lost at this point and we're in control. The only thing you guys can do now is decide if you want to pick a winner between the Greyjoys and the Lannisters.

[Macavitar]

Additionally, we have an opportunity to break the site meta that town always wins Prisoner's Dilemma. Mac and I decided very consciously last night that we wanted this to happen when we no killed. We could have easily taken Magna out and fought for the single victory in lylo. Or we could have killed you, Thor, and went to Kingmaker. But we chose to no kill because we feel both Magna and us have played a good game and we don't mind sharing a guaranteed victory.

[Thor665]

Why do you need to hear from him? You've already explained the obvious win mechanic from your perspective - your actions are set in stone now. Besides, if he got greedy you'd never be able to tell till it was too late. Might as well no lynch now and just figure he'll agree with you since you'll already definitely be voting with your plan.

I wouldn't want town to have to pick between you guys (despite your awesometacular fake-claim [though I imagine the Dead QT is bellowing obscenities at me about that now]) after all, you're both awesome for getting here and if I pick between you two then I'd be shafting the other guy. I think you should just play for the draw so neither of you is the loser.

[Thor665]

Oh, you no killed? I thought both of the scum just targeted Richard. My bad.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Aw man, was I on the 'stupid town' list and thus didn't get killed? I hate you all.

No Thor. I specifically passed over you to kill the other ‘confirmed Town’ player because I respect your ability to reason and make sound judgement. In the case of a 3 player scenario versus Mac I thought I had a much better shot convincing you to chose me.

So Magna, no choice but to make an offer of a joint win: No Lynch just happened, so we night kill diddin, you night kill Thor. If we buck, that's a town win. So let's not buck, shall we?

If we end up with a No Lynch I agree to these terms. Town doesn’t deserve to win this game.

One of my first actions was going to be to ask about your lack of kill last night but VP has cleared that up. I can understand where you were coming from. To some degree I expect you were also ‘poisioning the well’ on the off chance I chose to take you out to make sure I couldn’t win. Good strategy, BTW. I almost chose to kill diddin over Richard on the same premise but after CSL’s hissy fit changed my mind.

Damn Magna, and I was on you all game, only to second-guess myself on that last day. Grr at CSL.

Really? This surprises me. I thought after the Unsight lynch that it was clear you had caught on that I was the last Greyjoy and thus why I was pushing so strongly for you as Town when the evidence against you was really quite damning. I figured like myself you knew you needed my kills until we could get to 4 or 3 players remaining after night.

I still can't believe we didn't lynch mac. He was obv scum. I'm gonna love reading the dead QT for this game.

Also, I WAS RIGHT YOU SONS OF BITCHESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS BUT NOBODY LISTENED TO ME

I honestly can’t believe Town didn’t lynch him after he was directly tracked to a kill target. I knew the minute he made his claim he was lying but I needed him alive until this point so I worked my tail off defending my ‘enemy’.

Read my Day 2 play in Supernatural Mafia if you want my Town position on players tracked to a dead body. Mac can con ‘himself’ lucky I was scum otherwise I would have driven his lynch through Day 5. Convincing claim or not you don’t ignore a result like that.

And no-one listening to you is your own fault diddin. This is the same lesson I imparted to Nobody Special after Harry Potter Mafia – your ability to sway your fellow players on Day 5 is built by solid-Town style play and scum-hunting Days 1-4. Quite frankly both youand CSL played scummy and didn’t build rep with your fellow players in those early days. And thus when it came crunch time you were not believed.

Also, wouldn't the scum who killed the other scum achieve total victory?

I appreciate what you are doing here Thor but you aren’t appealing to an audience that can be persuaded. This situation is a classic twist on the Prisoners dilemma.

If I defect I can achieve 1 of 2 outcomes – Complete victory for the Greyjoys or complete victory for Town.

If I follow the plan I can achieve 1 of 2 outcomes – Complete victory for the Lannisters or partial victory for both the Lannisters and the Greyjoys.

If my choice results in a victory for a faction not my own I am going to follow the path with the better overall expected outcome. And the path that leads to either a split victory or a Lannister win is preferable to a possibility of a Town win.

Town doesn’t deserve to win this game, IMO. Let’s be frank – Town only lynched 2 scum – one Serial Killer who was obvious and one Mafian whose lynch was driven by the other Mafia faction. The only other Mafian Town ‘caught’ and dealt with was Percy who was nailed by a Cop. If not for the massive cross-kills Town would most likely have been stream-rolled.

I respect the game Macavitar and the Lannisters not named danakillsu played much more than the overall Town game. Not to say there weren’t some excellent Town players. Thor you played solid. Locke and Benmage played well. If Mina wasn’t so stricken with streaks of doubt she could have been a Town MVP driving force. But those players have to be balanced by the other players who just didn’t play even a middling game.

I wouldn't want town to have to pick between you guys (despite your awesometacular fake-claim [though I imagine the Dead QT is bellowing obscenities at me about that now]) after all, you're both awesome for getting here and if I pick between you two then I'd be shafting the other guy. I think you should just play for the draw so neither of you is the loser.

I understand your thoughts here Thor but I want to be sure you will not reconsider this. I agree we have both played excellent games but think I can make a solid argument as to why between the two of us I should get the nod. If you are sure you’d rather see a draw (knowing with absolute certainty you were not going to get a Town win out of the No Lynch) I’ll send us to Night after seeing your response.

[Thor665]

@MoI - possible town victory is infinitely preferable to me then certain scum victory; whichever side may or may not 'deserve' wins I play for my wincon. (Though the buttering up was a wonderful salve to a wounded ego or an appreciated nod from a fellow player - depending your mission goal)

I'd say go no lynch, Mac has a solid plan there.

[diddin]

Second guessing ourselves really fucked ourself over here. Frankly town did NOT play as good of a game as the graveyard would make you think, without all those crosses scum would have won this a long time ago. I feel bad for not pushing on Mac like all the time the past few days. I also feel bad for not noticing that Magna's deliberate avoidance of anything to do with a Mac lynch was essentially posting a SCUM sign on him.

Do either of you scumbags have power roles of any sorts?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I guess Thor has settled it then.

UNVOTE: Mac
VOTE: No Lynch

The rest can be hammered out during post game.

Mac I'm counting on you to ice diddin as you stated in your plan.

[Macavitar]

One of my first actions was going to be to ask about your lack of kill last night but VP has cleared that up. I can understand where you were coming from. To some degree I expect you were also ‘poisioning the well’ on the off chance I chose to take you out to make sure I couldn’t win. Good strategy, BTW. I almost chose to kill diddin over Richard on the same premise but after CSL’s hissy fit changed my mind.

Actually, the poisoning the well thought never occurred to us, though you make a good point. Ultimately, we just decided shooting for the kingmaker was more risky than just taking the split victory. lol, after this is over I'm sure our QT will make for some interesting reading.

Mac I'm counting on you to ice diddin as you stated in your plan.

We most certainly will. Let this be a testament to scumbags working together everywhere. Mr. MoI, tear down that wall!


Good luck and good night.

-VP

[Eddard Stark]

Final Day 7 vote count.

No Lynch (3) -

Thor665, diddin, MagnaofIllusion

Not Voting (1) - Macavitar

With 4 alive it took 3 lynch.

[Eddard Stark]

Robb Stark

There were so few of them left now. Too few to hold up against the the Greyjoys and the Lannisters that remained. Irony placed Robb's only remaining ally as Lannister's dog. Constant mistreatment turned Sandor Clegane against his former masters, and Robb hoped that disloyalty would hold. It was unnerving today, how Victarion Greyjoy and Tyrion Lannister discussed so calmly who would come in the night and take care of who. Robb could only hope that their treacherous nature got the better of them.

Robb walked to the Godswood, and prayed.

Night 7 starts now. Let's see what happens.