Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[Fate]

Damn I keep forgetting to put the POINT of my post at the bottom...

CONCLUSION: RC's analysis is shit and is comprised of twisting votes/misrepresenting the actual Town Thoughtline present in an attempt to make his wagon look more "scumdriven" than it is.

[Baby Spice]

Until #1061 MoI was looking good for Paranoid btw, but he voted someone who hasn't voted for him in RC.

Explain how this makes any sense in the context that I voted Furcolow (which has been decried as Policy Based) before he had even posted, much less voted for me.

Someone with paranoid can vote for anyone, until people start voting for them. You (Until your vote for RC I think it was), and Feysal and a couple of others that I can check on when I get back to my lappy currently meet that profile.
It's not important yet I don't think but might matter more as we get closer to deadline.

[Seacore]

Re Furc's special insanity privledges:

I hate this, so much. He should have to abide by both the list and I think he should tell us, we need to keep track of everything. I don't see how knowing disadvantages us (or advantages scum) more than us not knowing disadvantages us.
Yes, I've read the argument that says "scum can plan things if they know", but so can we.
As for not having to pick things off the list, that's an even bigger hell no. Furc should have to pick things off the list.


Re RC's flailing defence posts:

Seriously, there is so much deliberate twisting of posts here it's ridiculous. Also, my "defence of AV" that was noted... I think you'll find that you were accusing AV of coaching and distancing from me... meaning it was also an attack at me... so I was defending myself.

Re Hito's taco comment:

Man crush.

[Furpants_Tom]

-Why no threat to Furpants who we were agreeing with and talking to about the RC wagon?

I think he felt guilty about not inviting me to his game of car-brick.

Re Furc's special insanity privledges:

Well yes, I agree; and I think most people agree with the concept that more info helps town. Licensing Furc to go off and be Special Agent on whatever mad plan he likes is not ideal; but the problem is that now we've all (more or less) agreed that he's probably town, we're not going to lynch him. And if he knows we're not going to lynch him, we have absolutely no way to compel him to obey us.

Okay, so now what? Lets say you had a day vig shot right now and could shoot anyone, who would you pick and why?

It'd be RC. I'm not going to vote just yet, because I'm currently at work, and I need some time to put my thoughts together and see if they make sense written down; but the only thing dissuading me from a Reaper vote is the speed at which the wagon formed, and the catalyst. Which is probably not really a valid reason for holding back at this point of the day, really. For tracking purposes, I suppose I should add:

FoS: ReaperCharlie

A question for Vasudeva, though

- at what point did you become certain that hitogoroshi is town; and why?

[Feysal]

Feysal:

I think it was Baby Spice who asked but I didn't see the follow up, why are you still not voting?

I did reply to Baby Spice, as quoted by MoI below.

No reason related to game rules. Vote hopping is just not my style. I prefer to vote when I have a more solid case to act on, or if my vote is needed to secure a lynch at deadline. That said, the case on ReaperCharlie put together by Seacore and MoI looks compelling, but I'd still like to read his posts in ISO before placing my vote.

Aside from the insanity angle the Baby Spice provided this looks like Vote Footprint (tm to Magnaofillusion) minimization, which I find scummy. We are far enough into the Day that you should have by now either seen a solid case that you agreed with or developed one of your own. As a proponent of VC analysis I find your reasoning to be not justified.

Acknowledged. It did not even occur to me to think about a vote footprint, I've usually based my vote pattern analysis on successful lynches only. And it is not that I would not have suspects. I have doubts about Baby Spice, and about Plum to a lesser degree. xvart I suspected earlier, but I'm leaning town now. And then there is ReaperCharlie, who I finally took the time to do an ISO read of.

I'm not going to repeat the points I remember seeing already, just some things I thought to add. For one, ReaperCharlie's question about cult mechanics in #1004 (ISO #62) was not the first time. He was already wondering about that here:

Your plan

gives the Cult a chance to kill Fate, right? But only if they've crafted a fetish for him already? Or can the Cult participate in a Ritual on anyone they want, regardless of fetishes crafted? If they can, then wasting Fate AND a Res kit just to confirm Benmage (who would then be 1 murder away from Psychopathy anyway) seems like a PRETTY bad plan to me.

The accusation that he'd have tried to appear oblivious of cult mechanics to appear town is the weakest part of the case against ReaperCharlie, in my opinion. It was not the first time he'd asked the question, and no one thought it was suspicious then. It is interesting though that this first time he seems aware that the fetishes may be needed for the Ritual.

Whoever is calling me scummy, i.e. Seacore, Vas, Magna, (& Co.?), SUBSTANTIATE YOUR CLAIMS.

Now this is just hypocritical. ReaperCharlie never did much to substantiate his own suspicions. His votes on Baby Spice and back to Seacore were both blatant sheeping, and his original case on Seacore was not much better.

To me, this case is no longer about the original accusations. The contradiction about hydras was not much of a contradiction at all, more like having conflicting and unrealistic expectations from hydras. This case is about how ReaperCharlie has reacted to the suspicions. Appeal to emotion, calling attention to his laziness as town, trying to move suspicion to xvart and Bowser, not like he had anything really new to say about either of them. Some of his arguments are also really taken out of context or misrepresented. Like this:

"Conspiracy theorist smoking gun": I also find it QUITE convenient that 'B' (for Baby Spice, the other person who warded Magna) comes right at the BEGINNING of the list, and X comes right at the END of the list (yes, it's in alphabetical order. I see that). But that is probably just you choosing the farthest possible ward target from yourself, and hoping that nobody would notice. That nobody would notice you conveniently claiming the exact same ward target as somebody else, who happens to be at the opposite end of the list. After they claimed it. After EVERYONE ELSE HAD ALREADY CLAIMED. Very convenient indeed.

In fact, xvart's final list contained this line, which ReaperCharlie had edited out of his quote:

MagnaofIllusion

(Warded by Baby Spice and xvart)

-

Heard Noises

(7), Did not Ward (7)

xvart wrote right after MoI's name that he had been warded by two players, Baby Spice and himself. Hoping no one would notice, sure.

Vote: ReaperCharlie

Yes, this is good enough for me. Maybe you are flailing scum, maybe just a frustrated townie, RC, but casting suspicions at those voting you and dismissing their concerns as invalid is not the right way to defend yourself.

[Seacore]

Re Furc's special insanity privledges:

Well yes, I agree; and I think most people agree with the concept that more info helps town. Licensing Furc to go off and be Special Agent on whatever mad plan he likes is not ideal; but the problem is that now we've all (more or less) agreed that he's probably town, we're not going to lynch him. And if he knows we're not going to lynch him, we have absolutely no way to compel him to obey us.

But in a way, this is a circular argument. A circular argument with the assumption that Furc is an investigator. Let's say that's true (although I'm not sold that it's confirmed)

Furc is an investigator who was either planning to stay town, or made such a botch of things as potential murderer that it would be stupid to go murderer now because of all of the suspicion and attention on him.
Therefore Furc is confirmed town.
Therefore Furc is allowed to get away with dodgy shit like picking whatever insanity he wants and not telling us. Not to mention declaring himself graverobber as opposed to discussing it with town.
Therefore Furc is no longer confirmed town (whether or not he's investigator), because his special privledges are giving him an improved chance of running under the radar.

Then there's the fact that I don't even trust him to make the smart decisions.

And you're right Tom, most people, at this stage, don't want to waste a lynch on him so we have nothing to threaten him with.

Nothing, unless we give somebody permission to Vig him.

Please note, I'm not saying he should be killed, but I'm saying it should be considered as a method of enforcing him to play on our team.

[Seacore]

A quick little tally on our lead wagon, since it's been a while since our last offical vote count, and while I do want RC dead, I want it to be a deliberate death, not a "oops, I didn't realise I was hammering" death.

ReaperCharlie - 10

(Triglav, Seacore, Fate, VasudeVa, MagnaofIllusion, SpyreX, xvart, AV, kunk, Feysal)

With Tom's potential vote tonight, that's 11.

4 more people please.

Anybody who is on a wagon of 2 or less (or is not voting at all) should really start to vote for somebody more likely (hint: vote RC, he's scum).

Hell, even Furc pointed out a reasonable argument for RC-scum.
RC claimed to have picked up a rez kit.
But then offered to ward furc.
With all the people who heard noises last night, wouldn't a townie with a rez kit be planning on saving a life?

Vote with your head.
Vote reaper charlie dead.

I am Seacore, and I approve this message.

[xvart]

RC - I'm assuming you are using the term "analysis" in "wagon analysis" very loosely since you did nothing other than quote the posts with votes and did no actual analysis of the context of the votes nor quoted any previous quotes that might also include justification for voting. I'll just debunk how terrible my vote is in your eyes by the blatant twisting of words.

xvart

Post #1184

:

If I was cult, why wouldn't I just let Furcolow get lynched?

Really? This is easy. ScumRC would want Furcolow alive because in the eventual event of his lynch you could claim an impeccable read on him. Also, him being alive would create a player slot that could very well be detrimental long term, or at least create pages of nonsense and little content to filter through for days. The fact that you have always been so adamant about Furcolow not being lynched has always struck me as odd, because even if you think he is so obvious town, you don't strike me as a player that would be up in arms about keeping him around. You have always struck me as a guy willing to trim the fat, or at least not caring enough about not trimming the fat.

Wait, I thought the Cult could kill each night regardless of stalking.

Fetishes give people extra insanities, and the Ritual kills 'em, right?

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

Now this is something I could actually see ScumRC doing as misdirection. Trying to pull a not so fast one on everyone.

Who were you even talking to when you made this comment Reaper?

VOTE: ReaperCharlie

For some reason, thinks me-scum would NOT want furc-town lynched Day 1 (?), but thinks I am the kind of guy to trim the fat and get furc lynched (if I am town). (Yep. This makes

sense

... *borat voice* NOT!) Also thinks my post #1004 asking about cult kills is WIFOMcult trying to look clueless about how cult matters work.

No no no... Twisting my words I can see how you would come to that conclusion; but I did not say you would want to lynch him; I clearly said that you don't strike me as the type of person who would care if he got lynched (or Murdered or Cult killed) and are not the type of person that would be so adamant in defending someone so VI/anti-town.

You also missed my question to you (highlighted in blue above); who were you talking to when you made that comment and what conversation was it in reference to?

b. you all should be voting with me, as i am town

This is gold.

It automatically explains their high insanity count and it gives him/her information about who the other Murderers are.

Doesn't it stop them stalking/murdering?

No; robbing graves is a free action.

Okay, so there were some opinions stated about claiming Ward targets. Your soft claim comment is wrong; but it would please me if you could clarify the cult motivation for soft claiming a ward target or what benefit that would have if I was busy crafting fetishes or doing something Cultish.

Why should I clarify something I didn't say/intimate.

You seem to think that I am Cult and soft claiming a Ward target is something with Cult motivation. If you can't explain the motivation behind Cult soft claiming a Ward then this point of your case is invalid. The burden of proof is on you in this case; not me.

In fact, xvart's final list contained this line, which ReaperCharlie had edited out of his quote:

MagnaofIllusion

(Warded by Baby Spice and xvart)

-

Heard Noises

(7), Did not Ward (7)

xvart wrote right after MoI's name that he had been warded by two players, Baby Spice and himself. Hoping no one would notice, sure.

Solid observation. I can't believe I didn't think of this; but I guess I was too flabbergasted by how ludicrous the accusation was.

xvart.

[ReaperCharlie]

Seacore and xvart: who is scum when I flip town?

[El Goosuki]

RC is total town.

This is a scum-driven wagon.

[Furpants_Tom]

Well, that's compelling. Maybe you might chance people's minds if you told them why?

[Seacore]

Seacore and xvart: who is scum when I flip town?

I'd start with looking at El Goo, Trilo and AV,

But I'm not big on doing lage hypothetical connection arguments. I think you're scum because if your scummy actions, not your connections.

[xvart]

Seacore and xvart: who is scum when I flip town?

Soooo... you're not denying that your wagon analysis was full of misreps, holes, and twisting of words? I'll worry about your question tomorrow if in the unlikely event you do actually flip town. Now how about answering the questions directed at you?

xvart.

[Baby Spice]

Xvart. I believe I was calling you someone wwho stalked and thus needed a fake action claim. The soft claim bit being a bit of insureance if nobody else claimed a ward target after Furv blurted his out like that.

[Baby Spice]

ebwop.
Furc. I've worn the letters off of some of the keys on my kindle

[Seacore]

Seacore and xvart: who is scum when I flip town?

I'd start with looking at El Goo, Trilo and AV,

But I'm not big on doing lage hypothetical connection arguments. I think you're scum because if your scummy actions, not your connections.

Oh, my bad, sorry, I read it as when he flips scum.

To me, a town flip will tell me very little. I've looked at everybody who is voting for you and I'm satisfied that they have good reason. That doesn't mean there aren't scum on the wagon, with 7 cultists and 15 votes needed, 1 or 2 are bound to get in on the bus early.

Just because somebody says "I agree with the points other people have raised and I find Player A scummy" does not mean they are sheeping, it means they've seen a strong argument and agree with it.

This is a scum-driven wagon.

By scum driven, what do you mean?
Do you scum started the wagon? If so, who out of Triglav, Fate and I do you find scummiest?

Or do you mean that the wagon is being most loudly pushed by scum?

In which case, who out of the people on the wagon who are touting it the loudest... lets say, Triglave, myself, fate and xvart... are the scummy ones?

Or do you mean there are scum on the wagon? in which case, of course there are.

Also

TOWN

Drippereth
LynchMePls
Unsight
Benmage
Percy
Vezopiraka
hasdgfas
danakillsu
MagnaOfIllusion

Percy, Dana and MOI were scum.

A later list from that same day does little but add Super Smash Bros. Fan to the list of town, he was the Serial Killer

Another nice quote from that day

I think RAIVAN is TOWN, but I don't think I agree with him on much at all.

Raivann was a scum godfather.

So, you'll understand why I don't want to just believe your reads, particularly without evidence.

[El Goosuki]

Noone ever quotes the times I'm right.
I'll catch up laater tonight...have a competition to prepare for...

[Seacore]

Noone ever quotes the times I'm right.
I'll catch up laater tonight...have a competition to prepare for...

Oh but I did.

Out of the list of 10 people you said were town over those quotes 5 were town.
So you were right 50% of the time

I flipped my coin, and it landed tails, so I'm going to go with RC as scum this time.

[ReaperCharlie]

Seacore and xvart: who is scum when I flip town?

Soooo... you're not denying that your wagon analysis was full of misreps, holes, and twisting of words? I'll worry about your question tomorrow if in the unlikely event you do actually flip town. Now how about answering the questions directed at you?

xvart.

I can't possibly sum up the ENTIRE wagon on me in one post, though I did give it my best shot. So I'm sure I missed something. I grabbed all the posts where the VOTE:REAPER was there, and I put them together. Yeah this has drawbacks, but it took a pretty dang long time and I feel like I was RELATIVELY objective.

I also put together at the bottom of the post a list of all the points against me. Yours were at the bottom. I laughed at yours. But some of the points are good points against me (i.e. Magna's) and I listed those along with all of the rest of them. DO NOT say that I didn't lay out the entire case against me, DO NOT say that I didn't do a pretty dam# good job getting MOST of it in there. Because I did.

You are just trying to pick at something that's already festering, to try to make it look worse so more people will jump on the wagon. And that is where you're scummy.

And of course you are going to say I misrepped somebody and that I'm full of sh*t because I'm obvscum, but I don't care. I put it there, for anyone else to look at and judge whether it's a good wagon or not.

And for the record: I'm not scum, I'm town. With absolutely 0% desire to go murderer.

[ReaperCharlie]

Noone ever quotes the times I'm right.
I'll catch up laater tonight...have a competition to prepare for...

Oh but I did.

Out of the list of 10 people you said were town over those quotes 5 were town.
So you were right 50% of the time

I flipped my coin, and it landed tails, so I'm going to go with RC as scum this time.

Did your coin say "In OMGUS we trust?" lmao

[Fate]

Now Reaper's resorted to "OMGUS" tells?

oh LORDY.

"RELATIVELY" objective? You don't even have half the FACTS straight.

NICE DODGING MY ACCUSATIONS/QUESTIONS THOUGH REAPER. MORE +TOWN POINTS FOR YOU

[Fate]

DGB ALWAYS thinks people getting run up are town D1, for some moronic reason.

And then when she's wrong and D2 comes along? Not even an "I'm sorry" or a "you're right Fate, you're better at catching scum than me. Good job nailing sorasgoof singlehandedly." NOTHING.

Leaning town on that hydra now though, (sadly).

[MagnaofIllusion]

The world is about to end for the sentence I’m about to type –

In regards to Fate’s 1345 – QFT.

There .. I’ve done it. God help us all.

i am also willing to bet money triglav is scum

I’d ask you if you were willing to make an Avatar bet but I already know you back out of those so I will not bother …

I'm not going to vote just yet, because I'm currently at work, and I need some time to put my thoughts together and see if they make sense written down; but the only thing dissuading me from a Reaper vote is the speed at which the wagon formed, and the catalyst.

Oh yay a Speed of the Wagon argument. Do not pass go, do not collect $200. I can point out MANY examples that prove Day 1 wagon can and do form quickly on Scum (in fact see my Day 1 wagon in Invitational 8. The calls of ‘Speed of the Wagon’ helped me stave of my lynch).

I read some fence-sitting here waiting to see which way the wind blows.

Someone with paranoid can vote for anyone, until people start voting for them. You (Until your vote for RC I think it was), and Feysal and a couple of others that I can check on when I get back to my lappy currently meet that profile.

Your analysis is naturally going to more likely find player who don’t vote spam. That said there is an easy test for this. I’ll simply wait for someone to vote me each Day and when they do I’ll move my vote to someone who hasn’t voted me. Anyone can do this and I’m sure it is easy enough to devise tests for the other voting insanities. For that reason I think it is fairly pointless to focus on them this early.

Nice conditional accusation. Have fun with that.

Your point? Relational observations are always conditional until you get flips.

Why no threat to Furpants who we were agreeing with and talking to about the RC wagon?

Mainly for the same reason I haven’t questioned El Goo (surprised you didn’t bring them up also) about it … after seeing his flippant responses I don’t see much usefulness in asking questions that will not get reasonable answers. I simply note them and move to people I think are reasonable. It’s actually an advantage for you from the standpoint that if you are Town your response could help shape my read. My read on them will be formed independent of their responses.

Your hydra contains at least 2 people I would expect a rational response from when questioned. Plus the use of the word ‘opportunistic’ doesn’t sit well coming from one of your heads. And since your posts are unsigned I’ve gone on the theory that it is that head that made the comment.

My question to you is this – Was the sarcastic one liner from your slot at the top of the page not a sufficient response?

I haven't MOVED from attack to attack, Magna. It is a multiple-pronged attack. I have multiple heads, like a hydra, but... not.

Fear me.

FEAR ME.

1. Actually you have but thanks for making up some absurd reason why you aren’t.
2. The fact that you aren’t even bothering to address my post in a meaningful way tells me I’m probably right. Having seen your freak-outs in a scum QT before I assume the Cult QT is chock full of all sorts of choice words if you are scum (which I believe you are).

[Seacore]

So, this is your summary of why I voted for you.

Seacore

Post #1015

:

BECAUSE I AM AN EVILMASTERMIND THAT SCUM FEAR AND KILL N1.

*CACKLES*

NOW HURRY UP AND GET THIS WAGON OFF YOU SEACORE SO WE CAN MOVE ON TO SERIOUS BUSINESS.

I'm trying, but people seem to need more convincing. Maybe I should die and be revealled as town, then people will stop voting for me.

I'm going to move on to RC as well though, maybe a few more prods will actually get an answer to the question he's been dodging for a while.

UNVOTE: AV VOTE: RC

Voted me for dodging questions. Ok, that's a reason.

And yet before it:

Well join us on the RC train.
We believe we've found scum
You believe he's a better than even chance of being scum.

We can all get along with his lynch.

Pure OMGUS.

Based on this post:

Seacore's post #120 is quite juicy and was begging me to sink my teeth into it:

Is there a way to filter Benmage and Fate out from all the other posts?

trying to play the annoyed townie.

In other news, anybody who things I'm cult

with Fate just because I disbelieve Benmage has perfect meta

is a moron.

SEACORE IS SCUM. CULT. WHATEVER. HE NEEDS TO GO.

Unvote; Vote SEACORE.

That's really the only reason you're voting me... c'mon... don't lie.

And after it:

Did your coin say "In OMGUS we trust?" lmao

Apparently my vote is based on OMGUS.

So why wasn't that mentioned in your summary? Did you forget that was your catchall defence against my case?

[Furpants_Tom]

I'm not going to vote just yet, because I'm currently at work, and I need some time to put my thoughts together and see if they make sense written down; but the only thing dissuading me from a Reaper vote is the speed at which the wagon formed, and the catalyst.

Oh yay a Speed of the Wagon argument. Do not pass go, do not collect $200. I can point out MANY examples that prove Day 1 wagon can and do form quickly on Scum (in fact see my Day 1 wagon in Invitational 8. The calls of ‘Speed of the Wagon’ helped me stave of my lynch).

I read some fence-sitting here waiting to see which way the wind blows.

I'm sorry to hear that you suffer the terrible afflictions of selective blindness and premature post-snipping.

I'm not going to vote just yet, because I'm currently at work, and I need some time to put my thoughts together and see if they make sense written down; but the only thing dissuading me from a Reaper vote is the speed at which the wagon formed, and the catalyst.

Which is probably not really a valid reason for holding back at this point of the day, really.

I remain happy to concede that this is not a valid reason not to vote for ReaperCharlie.