The Return to Liten (Game Over)

[Thor665]

@Furry - what's the ApCUPCAKES as town moment?

I've got bad vibes about Slaxx, and his last post didn't help, but I'm afraid mixing them up with OMGUS feelings and his pressure on me though haphazard could simply be scumhunting of me.
I could get behind a Twomz lynch.
What's the case on CES? I was thinking he was fairly townie thus far.

[SaintKerrigan]

I will hopefully get a vote count up sometime tomorrow. Whether there's flavor or not depends on my school schedule...

[HackerHuck]

Magna, I don't really see how your VC analysis was much different than Twomz. I also disagree about Thor's place on the D1 wagon clearing him. How about a little substance to back up those ISO reads?

The Untrod wagon was the secondary wagon of the day and there was definitely a push to avoid SO at the last minute. I could see a scum partner trying to help in that late day push when Spyrex would get most of the attention for how he tried to stop the lynch. It would also explain why Feysal avoided the Untrod Wagon.

At least you didn't make a bunch of excuses for Nero. I'm on board with his lynch. I certainly don't get a newbie vibe from him, so I'm not sure why some people think he's not scummy for that. Looking at him in ISO, he's done very little in the way of scumhunting. He parked his vote D1 on MoI without really commenting on any of the other two big wagons (to his credit he did address the early Data wagon). He continued that on Day2, where he really avoiding contributing any thoughts to the Feysal wagon except for saying that he didn't really need to give him a chance to vote since Feysal was posting elsewhere on site. In that same post, he unvotes (Thor) without hammering Feysal, instead choosing to throw suspicion on APC and CES while asking CES why APC shouldn't be lynched.

Feysal's silence is telling.

Let's hold off on more Feysal votes until we get a vote-count. I saw a couple of would-be votes that might not be counted due to formatting/syntax, so I've got him at either 5 or 7 votes. We at least need a claim before ending this day.

I was about to get on and say we should give Feysal a chance to post but then I saw he was active yesterday morning.

Last visited: Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:42 am

unvote

I'd also support a APC or CES lynch. Kat likes to complain about misreps when scum so her last post doesn't sit well with me.

CES whats stupid about lynchin' APC?

This one's pretty obvious to me, although I'm not so sure who to have ThAd target. VOTE: Nero Cain


Can we get a prod/replacement request on Alamaster? I know that day 2 went pretty fast, but he only had two posts, neither of which had any content. We also haven't heard from him yet today.

[apathyplusCUPCAKES]

HH analysis is solid.

Vote: Nero Cain

We also need to set up a way to vote for vig target. How does using the

color purple

for vig votes sound?

[apathyplusCUPCAKES]

MOI, stating your top 3 scum reads at the moment would also be nice. Is it the "furry APC nero" group, or does it consist of others?

[Nero Cain]

MISLYNCH ALERT!!!!

[ThAdmiral]

I had a change of heart re: nero cain.

I believe he and thor are town.

Enlighten the rest of us?

I forgot to address this earlier. I was sort of swayed by the way nero is happy to stick his neck out and support his own cases even when he is copping a lot of heat for them. Furthermore, as thor mentioned, the fact that he hasn't changed his attention-grabbing style.
Thor I believe is town as well as he has generally made sense, has seemed to be genuinely scum hunting, and also hasn't been afraid to voice opinions to the contrary of most of the other players.

Here’s my question … since you obviously think APCakes is scum based on this vote to start the Day why didn’t you shoot him over Untrod?

He was my second pick.
Basically I was choosing from people in a category that hadn't voted on both wagons and also hadn't contributed that much imo. The group of people was: untrod tripod, apathypluscupcakes, alamasterGM and nero cain. In that order from scummiest to least scum.

[LimMePls]

We also need to set up a way to vote for vig target. How does using the color purple for vig votes sound?

We're not voting on the vig kill. No one wants the scum to have that much control over where it goes. Well, no one town anyways.

Unvote
Vote: apathyplusCUPCAKES

[Thor665]

We're not voting on the vig kill. No one wants the scum to have that much control over where it goes. Well, no one town anyways.

But you are one of the big believers that Admiral is misusing his kills, yes?
Is the plan to just sort of berate him after every night phase if he doesn't pick the way town should have? This seems pretty circular and self defeating, am I missing something?

@Hacker - if you don't get a newbie vibe from Nero at all what sort of scum vibe are you getting? His cases have all been pretty off the wall, what do you see as his logic?

[LimMePls]

If I have a problem with his choices, I'm going to let him know, and if he makes enough of them, I may even decide that he is better off lynched. What I'm not going to do is suggest we all vote on exactly who he kills. I think its a terrible idea. It is neither circular nor self defeating.

[SaintKerrigan]

AlmasterGM has been prodded.

Hoping to get some flavor up today, but I'll at least post a vote count. Stand by...

[SaintKerrigan]

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Wreckage of Dropship

Apollyon

Colonized Sector 2, UTP Planet Liten, Tynnfred System
December 4th, 2486 SC (Day 4, Month 15 LC)
1736 hours SST (0629 hours LLT2)

"All right, Pal, hold this maneuvering jet in place while I weld it to the beam," Joshua ordered. "And don't drop it. It's a bit weak as it is, and the last thing we need is to rupture the containment jacket."

"Yeah, yeah, yet another way for us to die," Pal grumbled, his muscles straining to hold the jet in place on top of the ultrasteel beam; it was nearly as large as him. "I suppose it would blow up the universe if it ruptures, right?"

"No, not the whole universe. Just the part where you and I are standing. It might get Bill, too. Not sure on the distance variables."

Seated on the ground in front of a large, black, spherical device, Bill glanced over and shouted, "What might get me?"

"Nothing, Bill, you'll be fine."

"Oh, good." Bill turned back to work on the sphere thing, while Joshua grabbed a laser pistol and began aiming at the space between the jet and the beam.

"Hey, wait a minute," Pal protested. "I drop this thing and it blows us to hell, but you shoot it with a laser and it's all right?"

"Ok, so I was slightly exaggerating," Joshua admitted, "but you still shouldn't drop it. There's a lot of compressed chemicals in that thing, and you don't want to take the chance."

"But still, how does a laser not blow this thing up?"

"Very precise aiming, and the fact that I deliberately had the jet placed so the strongest part of the jacket is touching the beam. As long as I don't miss, we'll get good, clean welds."

"Whatever." Pal stared at Joshua. "You better not miss, though, or my ghost is haunting yours in the afterlife."

"Whatever." Joshua began taking aim again with the pistol. "Although when we get the chance, I really ought to ask Sara if she saw anything..." he mumbled to himself.

He squeezed the trigger, and Pal squeezed his eyes shut. Fortunately for both of them, the jet was still there, as bulky as ever.

"See?" Joshua remarked. "Nothing to be worried about."

Bill stood up, stretching his arms. "Good news, guys. I think I succeeded in turning the cloak into an EM field generator. Better turn off any electronic gadgets you've got on you, so they don't get fried by the EM field. I'm going to see Sara and tell her that as well." With that, Bill strode past Joshua and Pal and through the field of debris to find Sara.

"Can I let go of this thing for a sec, Doc?" Pal asked.

"Absolutely not," Joshua replied, deactivating his personal wristcom. "I still need at least five more welds before that thing will hold solid."

"But--but my iPod Piconano!" Pal wailed. "It's all I've got to keep me sane!"

"With all the latest hits?"

"Of course! Lady Jansen and the Starfuckers, Cosimo, The Beetlesgeuse--"

Joshua sniffed disdainfully as he took aim again. "With all the battles you go through, I thought you'd be sick of all the screeching and screaming."

"Just fucking shut up and get the job done already..."

Vote Count 3.1

(3) apathyplusCUPCAKES: Thor665, ThAdmiral, LynchMePls
(2) Thor665: Nero Cain, Twomz
(1) Nero Cain: apathyplusCUPCAKES
(1) Twomz: MagnaofIllusion
(1) Cogito Ergo Sum: Furry

Not Voting: AlmasterGM, HackerHuck, Slaxx

With twelve people alive, it takes seven votes to lynch.
The deadline is Sunday, November 28th, 2010 at 11:00 a.m. CST.

[HackerHuck]

@Hacker - if you don't get a newbie vibe from Nero at all what sort of scum vibe are you getting? His cases have all been pretty off the wall, what do you see as his logic?

Someone making off the wall cases as town is unlikely to have an epiphany as scum and start making rational coherent ones. I'm basing my scum read on his actions.
I'm pretty sure I voted him already, but the VC says otherwise. VOTE: Nero Cain just to make sure.

I'm a little torn about directing the nightkill. If MoI is right that there could be as many as four mafia left (it does seem a bit high to me), then an SK can't just go around offing townies. I think we're probably better off leaving them in the dark and just putting ThAd on warning.

Mod

- What's the real deadline? I doubt it's October 31st

Erm...oops, guess I forgot to change that part of the old file. The correct deadline is November 28th at 11:00 a.m. CST.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, I don't really see how your VC analysis was much different than Twomz. I also disagree about Thor's place on the D1 wagon clearing him. How about a little substance to back up those ISO reads?

The Untrod wagon was the secondary wagon of the day and there was definitely a push to avoid SO at the last minute. I could see a scum partner trying to help in that late day push when Spyrex would get most of the attention for how he tried to stop the lynch. It would also explain why Feysal avoided the Untrod Wagon.

As I stated I did not have time for a full analysis but wanted to get my thoughts laid out.

Are you trying to say that Feysal avoided the Untrod Wagon because it had fellow scum on it? Why wouldn’t Thor as scum do the same near the end of the day?

I'm a little torn about directing the nightkill. If MoI is right that there could be as many as four mafia left (it does seem a bit high to me), then an SK can't just go around offing townies. I think we're probably better off leaving them in the dark and just putting ThAd on warning.

You are missing the point of the range I put together. The only way I can see 4 remaining Mafia is if Admiral is Town. He can’t be a Serial Killer under that scenario.

MOI, stating your top 3 scum reads at the moment would also be nice. Is it the "furry APC nero" group, or does it consist of others?

1. You actually commit to a Top 3 scum reads and I will do the same. I’m not jumping to justify myself to one of my top scum reads.
2. Did you not read my quick analysis? Furry, APC and Nero hardly qualifies as my suspect pool.

There is at likely 1 scum in the (APC / Nero) pool and likely at least 1 scum in the (AGM, Twomz, Slaxx, ZZZZ) pool.

MISLYNCH ALERT!!!!

You just received a single vote from APCakes and this is your reaction?

We're not voting on the vig kill. No one wants the scum to have that much control over where it goes. Well, no one town anyways.

Other than not labelling Admiral as a potential Serial Killer this deserves a QFT.

Tonight I’ll be doing a more full VC Analysis (schedule willing) and some ISO support for my suspects.

[ThAdmiral]

We also need to set up a way to vote for vig target. How does using the

color purple

for vig votes sound?

Don't really need anything fancy. I can read y'know. People can just say who they want vigged.

We're not voting on the vig kill. No one wants the scum to have that much control over where it goes. Well, no one town anyways.

I would like suggestions, I don't trust my abilities very much in this game. Also it could give us more information to use as reads as the game progresses.

[MagnaofIllusion]

As is my standards for VC Analysis confirmed Mafia are in Red, confirmed Town are listed in Blue. I have replace all replacement names in the vote-counts for consistency.

Raw Data Day 1 VC

Vote Count 1.1

(6)

danakillsu

: Thor665, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Square Obscure

, LunchMePls, apathyplusCUPCAKES,

Untrod Tripod

(2) Thor665: HackerHuck, Nero Cain
(2) ThAdmiral: AlmasterGM, Furry
(1) LynchMePls:

danakillsu

(1) Slaxx: MagnaofIllusion
(1) AlmasterGM: Slaxx
(1)

Feysal

: Twomz
(1) Nero Cain:

Nikanor

(1)

Untrod Tripod

: ThAdmiral

Not Voting:

Spyrex

,

Feysal

Vote Count 1.2

(4)

danakillsu

: Cogito Ergo Sum,

Square Obscure

, LunchMePls, apathyplusCUPCAKES
(4) ThAdmiral: AlmasterGM, Furry, Thor665, Slaxx
(2)

Untrod Tripod

:

Spyrex

,

danakillsu

(1) Thor665: Nova Cain
(1)

Feysal

: Twomz
(1) Nero Cain:

Nikanor

(1)

Square Obscure

: MagnaofIllusion
(1) MagnaofIllusion: ThAdmiral
(1) LynchMePls: HackerHuck

Not Voting:

Feysal

,

Untrod Tripod

Vote Count 1.3

(4)

Square Obscure

: Furry, AlmasterGM, LunchMePlz, MagnaofIllusion
(4)

Untrod Tripod

:

Spyrex

, HackerHuck, Thor665,

danakillsu

(3) ThAdmiral: Slaxx,

Untrod Tripod

,

Nikanor

(2)

danakillsu

: Cogito Ergo Sum, apothecaryplusCRABCAKES
(1) Thor665: Nova Cain

Not Voting:

Feysal

, ThAdmiral, Twomz,

Square Obscure

Vote Count 1.4

(6)

Untrod Tripod

:

Spyrex

, HackerHuck, Thor665,

danakillsu

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Nikanor

(2)

Square Obscure

: AlmasterGM, LunchMePlz
(2) ThAdmiral: Slacks,

Untrod Tripod

(2) Nero Cain: Furry, MagnaofIllusion
(1)

danakillsu

: apothecaryplusCRABCAKES

Not Voting:

Feysal

, ThAdmiral, Twomz,

Square Obscure

, Nova Cain

Vote Count 1.5

(8)

Untrod Tripod

:

Spyrex

, HackerHuck, Thor665,

danakillsu

, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Nikanor

, MagnaofIllusion,

Square Obscure

(3)

Square Obscure

: MathblasterGM, LunchMePlz,

Untrod Tripod

(1) ThAdmiral: Slacks
(1) Nero Cain: Furry
(1)

danakillsu

: apothecaryplusCRABCAKES

Not Voting:

Feysal

, ThAdmiral, Twomz, Nova Cain

Vote Count 1.6

(9)

Square Obscure

: AlmasterGM, LynchMePlz,

Untrod Tripod

, Slaxx, ThAdmiral, MagnaofIllusion, HackerHucker, Twomz, Cogito Ergo Sum
(4)

Untrod Tripod

:

danakillsu

,

Nikanor

,

Square Obscure

, Thor665
(2) Nero Cain: Furry,

Spyrex

(1)

danakillsu

: apathyplusSADFACE
(1) MagnaofIllusion: Nero Cain

Not Voting:

Feysal

Final Vote Count of Day 1

(10)

Square Obscure

: AlmasterGM, LynchMePlz,

Untrod Tripod

, Slaxx, ThAdmiral, MagnaofIllusion, HackerHuck, Twomz, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Nikanor

(3)

Untrod Tripod

:

danakillsu

,

Square Obscure

, Thor665
(2) Nero Cain: Furry,

Spyrex

(1)

danakillsu

: apathyplusCUPCAKES
(1) MagnaofIllusion: Nero Cain

Not Voting:

Feysal

[ThAdmiral]

day 2 pls

[Slaxx]

You see why unpod was a terrible kill?

>>

[MagnaofIllusion]

Now given that we only had 7 effective vote counts Day 1 there are some big gaps in the analysis that I don’t have time right now to fill in.

Known examples

– the Data wagon got to claiming status with 9 votes. That isn’t reflected here and I don’t have endless time to comb through the entire day and make customized VC for every event.

Things I want to address from the Day 1 Raw Data –

The early Dana wagon

–

(6) danakillsu: Thor665, Cogito Ergo Sum, Square Obscure, LunchMePls, apathyplusCUPCAKES, Untrod Tripod

(4) danakillsu: Cogito Ergo Sum, Square Obscure, LunchMePls, apathyplusCUPCAKES

Based on what we know so far none of the early alternates wagons (ThAdmiral, Untrod, Thor) are Mafia. In fact 2 of the three are confirmed not Mafia (ThAdmiral and Untrod).

So my first pool of interest are those who held the dana wagon the longest – CES, LMP and APCakes.

The Square Ob versus Untrod Wagon development

–

(4) Square Obscure: Furry, AlmasterGM, LunchMePlz, MagnaofIllusion
(4) Untrod Tripod: Spyrex, HackerHuck, Thor665, danakillsu

(6) Untrod Tripod: Spyrex, HackerHuck, Thor665, danakillsu, Cogito Ergo Sum, Nikanor
(2) Square Obscure: AlmasterGM, LunchMePlz

(8) Untrod Tripod: Spyrex, HackerHuck, Thor665, danakillsu, Cogito Ergo Sum, Nikanor, MagnaofIllusion, Square Obscure
(3) Square Obscure: MathblasterGM, LunchMePlz, Untrod Tripod

(9) Square Obscure: AlmasterGM, LynchMePlz, Untrod Tripod, Slaxx, ThAdmiral, MagnaofIllusion, HackerHucker, Twomz, Cogito Ergo Sum
(4) Untrod Tripod: danakillsu, Nikanor, Square Obscure, Thor665

(10) Square Obscure: AlmasterGM, LynchMePlz, Untrod Tripod, Slaxx, ThAdmiral, MagnaofIllusion, HackerHuck, Twomz, Cogito Ergo Sum, Nikanor
(3) Untrod Tripod: danakillsu, Square Obscure, Thor665

Observation 1 – two of the four players on the Untrod wagon early were Town (Spyrex and Dana). That leaves Thor and Hacker as those of unknown alignment.

Observation 2 – The player of unknown alignment was later on the Untrod Wagon when it first took precedence over Square - CES

Observation 3 - Square Ob wasn’t afraid to get on Untrod’s wagon very late.

Observation 4 – Players whose vote remained on SquareOb the entire time (from early tie to late prominence) – AGM and LMP

Observatoin 5 – Players who voted for Square Ob early and never re-voted for him – Furry

Observation 6 – Players who voted for Square Ob in the last two vote counts who didn’t before that point – Slaxx, Hacker, Twomz and CES. Also – those in that group who earlier had been voting for Untrod – Hacker and CES.

Conclusions

– Observation 3 leads me to believe that if there are other scum on the Untrod peak wagon I’m inclined to think they were likely on early – which would have me looking at Hacker, Thor and CES.

I also am most interested in those who were early off Square and never returned or were late shifters to Square, especially those who had been consistently on Untrod.

Pool of Interest 2 – Hacker, CES, Thor, Twomz and Slaxx.

Those who avoided the later in the Day Untrod and Square wagons or any significant wagons all Day long

–

APCakes was early on Dana but avoided the later wagons. Furry jumped off Square Ob and stayed off any dynamic wagons late. Nero maintained his vote outside any significant wagon all day long.

Pool of Interest 3 contains all those players.

Other Votes of Interest

–

Twomz early vote of Feysal is worth review.

In summary –

Pool 1 (Held onto Dana longest) – CES, LMP and APCakes
Pool 2 (Suspicous movement re SqOb versus Untrod wagons) – Hacker, CES, Thor, Twomz, Slaxx
Pool 3 – (Avoided limelight of later wagons) – APCakes, Nero and Furry
Pool 4 (RVS poor distancing?) – Twomz.

Looking at these pools the playes who are showing up multiple times are those I need to ISO the most – CES, APCakes, and Twomz.

Second tier of interest – Hacker, LMP, Slaxx, Nero and Furry

I stand by my reasoning on Thor’s alignment based on his consistent push for Untrod and willingness to be caught on the wagon at the end of day with Square.

[MagnaofIllusion]

day 2 pls

You do remember that Day 2 consisted of pretty much 100% votes for Feysal. If you want to knock yourself out looking at how the wagon grew versus unvoters know yourself out. I don’t see much mineable material in a Day like that.

You see why unpod was a terrible kill?

Yes, in reviewing the wagons it does look worse than I would have expected. That said Untrod’s death does give us more concrete data from Day 1 since we know he was a confirmed Town counterwagon to Square Ob.

[Slaxx]

I can do my best to explain the shift. I pretty much felt like he gave up pressuring ThAd based on an extremely stupid reason (flavor), making me think of him as passive and non-conflict seeking. Passive is typically what I look for in early days (especially since scum get a little more active endgame), so I went for it. I wonz.

[HackerHuck]

Magna, I don't really see how your VC analysis was much different than Twomz. I also disagree about Thor's place on the D1 wagon clearing him. How about a little substance to back up those ISO reads?

The Untrod wagon was the secondary wagon of the day and there was definitely a push to avoid SO at the last minute. I could see a scum partner trying to help in that late day push when Spyrex would get most of the attention for how he tried to stop the lynch. It would also explain why Feysal avoided the Untrod Wagon.

As I stated I did not have time for a full analysis but wanted to get my thoughts laid out.

Are you trying to say that Feysal avoided the Untrod Wagon because it had fellow scum on it? Why wouldn’t Thor as scum do the same near the end of the day?

I wasn't really trying to speculate on why Feysal avoided the Untrod Wagon. My point was more that your argument for clearing Thor is unfounded. There's a big difference between mafia joining one buddy on a small wagon and mafia joining two buddies on a small wagon. It also makes sense for scum to try and get the Untrod wagon moving because Nero was other alternative at that time, and he sure looks to be scum.

Re: MoI's big Votecount Analysis
Not sure how my actions are considered scummy. I thought Untrod was scum and I would have been pushing for his lynch today had he not turned up dead.
That's a nice big list of accusing everyone but yourself, our Vig/SK, and Thor. I should also add Alamaster, but I can see why you might have forgotten to add him to your list.

[AlmasterGM]

/prod received.

I was hit with a tsunami of things that require doing and cannot post anything until Saturday. If this means I shall be replaced, I'm am truly sorry (I have only replaced out of one game before in over 15 months on the site), but shit happens. Otherwise, you will hear from me Saturday.

I can fully relate. Hope you get stuff done!

[Nero Cain]

I'll post about my suspicions later today/tomorrow but as far as Thad goes....I think we need to give him a list of people to shoot that way he can pick and choose and doesn't kill someone that the majority of people think is town. Everyone needs to post their top three scumspects and the list will contain those names that occur most frequently. Mine are...

MOI
Thor
APC

[LimMePls]

Still like where my vote is. Still think trying to control the vig/SK is bad.